Post on 14-Dec-2015
High Impact Weather Events in the Transition Seasons:
Linked to Global Change?
Jonathan E. MartinUniversity of Wisconsin-Madison
2132 UTC 26 October 2010
Supertyphoon Megi – 17 October 2010
00 UTC 20 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 21 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 22 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 23 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 24 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 25 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
00 UTC 16 October 2010
00 UTC 22 October 2010
00 UTC 22 October 2010and PV
00 UTC 22 October 2010and PV
Defant and Taba 1957
Tropopause Pressure (mb) 1 January 1956
Defant and Taba 1957Defant and Taba 1957
Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
Can jet superpositions be objectively identified?
Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
300 hPa Wind Speed0000 UTC 27 April 2010
Can jet superpositions be objectively identified?
Likely that jet superpositions underlie some fraction of extreme weather events
A A`
A A`
A A`
A A`
0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
0000 UTC 24 October 2010B B`
00 UTC 24 October 20100.5 PVU isertel, Δp` (shaded), Wind speed at 348K
Subtropical/Polar jet Superpositions
Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
Polar Jet tied to mid-latitudebaroclinicity
Subtropical Jet tied to the Hadley Circulation
Polar Jet tied to mid-latitudebaroclinicity
Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
Warmer planet encourages a quicker northward return of the ITCZ
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??
Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
Warmer planet encourages longer TC season in West Pacific
Extends the period of possible jet superpositions
More frequent, extreme weather in mid-latitudes??
Next Steps
Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate
Next Steps
Construct 50 year climatology of jet superpositions
Consider relationships between jet superpositions and various categories of high impact weather
Provide a synoptic-dynamic context for predictions of increased frequency of extreme weather in a warmer climate
Provide more tenable physical linkages between traditional climate science and traditional weather systems science
1800 UTC 1 May 2010
1800 UTC 1 May 2010
1800 UTC 1 May 2010
1800 UTC 1 May 2010
1800 UTC 1 May 2010