Gabriela Gomes Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência, Portugal

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transmission intensity, R0

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Figure 1

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challenge dose, d

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0 0.5 1susceptibility

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Black (no intervention) :dSdt

= µ − λS − µS,

dIdt

= λS − µI, λ = βI.

Colored (intervention) :dsv (x)dt

= q(x)µ − xλsv (x),

div (x)dt

= xλsv (x) − µiv (x), λ = β iv01∫ (x)dx.

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Black (no intervention) :

M =1− e−pd .

Colored (intervention) :

M =1− e−xpd01∫ q(x)dx.

Gomes et al 2013 PLOS Pathogens (in review).

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di(x)dt

= β 1− i(x)[ ] − f (β,r)i(x),

where

f (β,r) =β

eβ r −1.

data from 90 communities

Smith et al 2005 Nature 438: 492.

Gomes et al 2012 Proc R Soc Lond B 279: 2473.

Cape Town

China

Taiwan India

Malawi

Rwanda Madras

Bangladesh

Spain Houston Denmark

Australia

Lombardy

US & Canada

data from 14 communities

Brazil Portugal

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ILI(t) = p(t)I(t)