COP 21 : Transport challenges

Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis

Date

Content

I. Yes we should!

II. Yes we can!

III. How to keep up

the good work?

Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 2

I. Yes we should!

Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 3

Globalisation

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x100 in 40 years

Depot Depot

MASSIFICATION

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Urbanisation

7

41 66%

2050

Megacities

Depot Depot

MASSIFICATION

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ATOMISATION

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11 Source: EU transport in figures, Statistical Pocketbook 2014, EC

Cathy

Macharis,

VUB-MOBI

12

13 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI

EU Objectives

The gap between Business as Usual and EC emission targets

15

1990 2030 2050

Trend

Target

Gap

Car emissions

CO2 emissions in 2050, 60% below 1990 levels (White paper)

CO2 emissions in 2050, no interventions

ΔCO2 = ΔMobility +

ΔEfficiency + ΔEnergy

Source: Hötl and Macharis, 2015

II. Yes we can!

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Consumer Perception and Sustainability

6% 11% 8% 4%

4% 5%

5%

2% 3%

29%

43% 45%

16% 11%

39%

26% 26%

57% 44%

22% 15% 15% 25%

37%

Overall US UK China BrazilNone Weak Moderate Strong Very Strong

Accenture, 2012

Who should take the biggest role?

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%

Source: Lek Consulting

Competitive Advantage

Cost

Customization

1950s 1990s

Quality

2015

Sustainability

Innovation

Awareness

Anticipation Avoidance

Act and shift

4 A’s of sustainable transport

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.

Programmes & certification

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External cost calculator

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Source: MOBI, 2013

Raw

materials

Production of

components

Assembly and

distribiution

Waste

Raw

materials

Refining

and

transport

Distribution

Usage

Life cycle assessment

Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI

See CLEVER project

@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm

23

Climate change

See CLEVER project

@ http://www.belspo.be/belspo/SSD/science/pr_transport_nl.stm Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI

24

Awareness

Anticipation Avoidance

Act and shift

4 A’s of sustainable transport

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Product Compaction

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2007

Less volume shipped - Same value

2012

Packaging compaction

Before redesign:

• 252 bags on a pallet

• 61.905 pallets shipped to

Ikea per year

After:

• 360 bags on a pallet

• 43.334 pallets

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Use your capacity

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European trucks are half empty!

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160 billion euros

20%

50%

100%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% Load factor

Cost of inefficiency

Source: Eurostat Data compiled by F Cruyssen

www.co3-project.eu

External

(other

organisations)

External

(Competitors)

External

(Clients)

External

(Suppliers)

Internal Horizontal

Collaboration

Vertical

Collaboration

Supply Chain Cooperation

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MOBI for Innoviris, 2011-2014

City distribution center

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-27% vehiclekms -1% of all flows

Awareness

Anticipation Avoidance

Act and shift

4 A’s of sustainable transport

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City barge transport

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LAMBIT is online

www.voortophetspoor.be

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Vrije Universiteit Brussel - MOBI MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology

36

SYNCHROMODAL

TRANSPORT PLANNING

infrastructure & vehicle capacity

transport service requirements & flexibility levels

SUPPLY DEMAND

transport operators & network managers

senders & receivers

transport planners

capacity matching model

vehicle performance estimation

dynamic routing

trust & cooperation mechanisms

(dynamic) MODE CHOICE

Cargo Bikes

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68%

Night distribution

Awareness

Anticipation Avoidance

Act and shift

4 A’s of sustainable transport

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Electric vehicles

40 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 40

Total Cost of Ownership

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Diesel RenaultNew Kangoo

Express

Electric RenaultKangoo ZE

Diesel MercedesSprinter

Electric SmithEdison

TCO

(€

uro

cen

ts p

er

km)

Source: VUB-MOBI, 2015

Vrije Universiteit Brussel - MOBI MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology 42

Sustainability

Sustainable

Logistics

Growth

Efficiency

Employment

Competivity

Choice

Climate change

Air quality

Noise

Land use

Biodiversity

Waste

Safety

Health

Accessibility

Equity

Economy

Society Environment

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III. How to keep up the good

work?

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The climate change battle continues!

Possible solutions

Economical Ecological Social Awareness! Internalisation of external costs + ++ +

Programmes & Certification ++ + +

Avoid! Optimisation of loading factors ++ +++ +

Horizontal & Vertical Cooperation ++ +++ +++

Urban Distribution center & Alternative Consolidation schemes -/+ +++ ++

Act! City barge transport & Pallets +/- +++ ++

Cargo Tram +/- +++ ++

Night time deliveries + ++ -

Anticipate! Natural Gas + + +

Electric Vehicles + +++ ++

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Economical Ecological Social Awareness! Internalisation of external costs + ++ +

Programmes & Certification ++ + +

Avoid! Optimisation of loading factors ++ +++ +

Horizontal & Vertical Cooperation ++ +++ +++

Urban Distribution center & Alternative Consolidation schemes -/+ +++ ++

Act! City barge transport & Pallets +/- +++ ++

Cargo Tram +/- +++ ++

Night time deliveries + ++ -

Anticipate! Natural Gas + + +

Electric Vehicles + +++ ++

Possible solutions

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Why it fails

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Why it fails

The list is long:

•Leiden

•Malaga

•Nuremberg

•Utrecht

….

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Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis (MAMCA)

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Multi Actor View

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Multi Actor Multi Criteria Analysis

(MAMCA)

Macharis, 2004 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 53

Real time workshops

MOSI - Transport & Logistics 54 www.mamca.be

Conclusion

• Yes we should!

• Yes we can!:

–Awareness

–Avoid

–Act and shift

–Anticipate

• Let’s work together:

–Actor involvement

55 Cathy Macharis, VUB-MOBI 55

Get in touch with us!

56 MOBI - Mobility, Logistics and Automotive Technology

Prof. Joeri Van Mierlo

EV’s and Hybrid vehicles

Prof. Cathy Macharis

Logistics, city distribution and sustainable

mobility

Prof. Peter Van den Bossche

Standardisation and batteries

Prof. Lieselot Vanhaverbeke

Location analysis

Geo-Marketing

Socio-economic aspets of EV’s

Prof. Thierry Coosemans

Electromobility

Prof. Thomas Crispeels

Business Modelling and innovation

Prof. Wouter Verbeke

Big data and data anlaytics

Prof. Noshin Omar

Director Battery Innovation

Centre

Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels

mobi.vub.ac.be

twitter.com/MOBI_VUB