HALLDÓR BENJAMÍN ÞORBERGSSON | SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT ... · 3 NUMBER OF TOURISTS PER YEAR Ι...
Transcript of HALLDÓR BENJAMÍN ÞORBERGSSON | SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT ... · 3 NUMBER OF TOURISTS PER YEAR Ι...
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY HALLDÓR BENJAMÍN ÞORBERGSSON | SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT | ICELANDAIR GROUP
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NUMBER OF TOURISTS ~ 800 K
Ι Is there a call for concerns regarding number of tourists in Iceland?
190 201 202232
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303 296278
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422
485502 494 487
566
672
781
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
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NUMBER OF TOURISTS PER YEAR
Ι Around 800 thousand total tourists arrivals last year.
800,000 PER YEAR
= 1,000 visitors
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# TOURISTS IN ICELAND PER SUMMER DAY
Ι On average there were around 45K tourists in Iceland
on any given summer day 2013.
45,000 EACH
SUMMER
DAY
= 1,000 visitors
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# TOURISTS IN ICELAND PER WINTER DAY
Ι On average there were around 10K tourists in Iceland
on any given winter day in 2013.
10,000 EACH WINTER DAY
= 1,000 visitors
THE BIGGER PICTURE
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5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Summer (Jun-Aug) Winter (Sep-May)
Ι Average number of tourists on any given day in Iceland
Our own calculations
In thousands
HEAD COUNT IN ICELAND IN THE SUMMER TIME
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Ι Average number of persons in Iceland in the summer time
Tourists
Icelanders
∆ 30,000
∆ 36,000
325k
45k
THE NET EFFECT IS EVEN SMALLER
Ι Luckily, Icelanders travel abroad in the summer time.
Ι On average, there are ~20 thousand Icelanders abroad on any given day in the summer.
Ι Therefore, the net effect is much smaller
Ι Best estimate
+25K to total population
Ι 325 + 25 = 350 K as total headcount
7% EFFECT ON DOMESTIC HEADCOUNT AT PEAK
13.222 19.203 24.343
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50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
2012 2013 2014
Marginal addition of tourists net of Icelanders abroad Iceland population
TOURISTS PER NATIVE?
Ι Is that a helpful measure?
Ι At best Iceland is placed at the middle of the league of nations with population < 5 million.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Andorra
Monaco
IcelandSan Marino
Croatia
Source: World Bank
103,000 KM2
TOURISTS PER SQUARE KILOMETRE
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Luxembourg Netherlands Cyprus Switzerland Denmark Croatia France Sweden Iceland Honduras
Source: World Bank
10,300 km2
LET‘S BE MORE FAIR IN OUR APPROACH
Ι Let’s exclude 90% of the land mass due to dense population and rough terrain
LET‘S BE MORE FAIR IN OUR APPROACH
Ι Let’s exclude 90% of the land mass due to dense population and rough terrain
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Luxembourg Netherlands Cyprus Switzerland Denmark Croatia France Iceland,90% exluded
Sweden Iceland Honduras
81
Source: World Bank
3,000 km2
… OR TAKE IT TO THE EXTREMES
Ι Let’s exclude 97% of the land mass due to dense population and rough terrain
… OR TAKE IT TO THE EXTREMES
Ι Let’s exclude 97% of the land mass due to dense population and rough terrain
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Luxembourg Netherlands Iceland,97%
excluded
Cyprus Switzerland Denmark Croatia France Iceland,90% exluded
Sweden Iceland Honduras
268
Source: World Bank
PREVALENT WORDS ABOUT ICELAND ARE POSITIVE
Ι The overall conversation is positive. We do not see terms like sold out, congestion, spoiled, or expensive.
Ι Iceland has mainly positive mentions
Ι Tourists are simply not talking about congestion in Iceland or at Iceland’s top tourist sites
Source: Ubervu
WE CAN ALWAYS DO BETTER
Ι Golden Circle with thousands of guests per day.
Ι Need to manage traffic better at top sites – number of tourists is not the problem – lack of management and infrastructure
Ι Urge use of market mechanisms with price as the incentive for changed behaviour key to success.
Ι Number of tourists should ideally continue to increase.
WELCOME MORE GUESTS:
ECONOMICALLY BENEFICIAL FOR US ALL
HE PROFITS FROM IT …
… SO DOES SHE
TOURISM & AVIATION LOCOMOTIVE OF GROWTH
-45%
-29%
-14%
-6%
-4%
-3%
0%
1%
-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10%
Construction
Finance
Retail and wholesale
Other
Tourism and transportation
IT and telecommunications
Fisheries
Metal production
60%
11%
11%
10%
10%
9%
-2%
-8%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Tourism and transportation
Other
Fisheries
Construction
Retail and wholesale
IT and telecommunications
Metal production
Finance
Ι Contribution to economic downturn 2008-2010 Ι Contribution to economic growth 2010-2013
TOURISM IS THE SOURCE OF GROWTH
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013
Economic growth excluding tourism Economic growth with tourism
Ι Limited economic recovery if we exclude tourism
7% GDP ADDITION SINCE 2010
90
92
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96
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100
102
104
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP with tourism GDP excluding tourism
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?
Ι Iceland is not sold out – we are far from reaching our upper limit
Ι The upper limit is not static – it is dynamic and evolves and expands over time
Ι However, we can smooth the transition by focusing on managing peek sites better
Ι Tourism is the locomotive of the Icelandic economy