Casualties and smoke emissions from regional and global...
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Casualties and smoke emissions from regional and global nuclear conflict.
Transcript of Casualties and smoke emissions from regional and global...
Casualties and smoke emissions from regionaland global nuclear conflict.
About 4000 nuclear warheads in 2012
R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2006).
Even small nuclear states can have manywarheads NWS
DeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)
Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998
South Africa 7, dismantled 1989,1979?
North Korea,10?, 2007
India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998
Ionizing radiationemitted γ-rays,neutrons
Thermal radiation, fires ignited 2km from ground zero atHiroshima
Blast wave, destroys brickbuildings 2 km from ground zeroat Hiroshima
High energyradiationemitted γ-rays,neutrons
Thermal radiation,fires ignited 2 kmfrom ground zeroat Hiroshima
Bombs cause 3 types of damage
Blast wave,destroys brickbuildings 2 kmfrom ground zeroat Hiroshima
Destructive power of nuclear weapons:Hiroshima, groundzero
Targeted Areas in the Tokyo-Yokohamamega-city complex
One nuclear explosion can cause orders ofmagnitude more fatalities than previous wars
Israel, 80 (1973) Pakistan, 63 (1971)
Argentina, 318(Falklands)
India, 190 (1971)
Brazil,∞
Egypt, 72 (1973)
Very few 15 kt explosions are needed toproduce fatalities from World War II
U.K., 5China, 6
Japan,14
U.S. , 3 France, 3
Russia>50
Iran, 2. Iran,Iraq war
50 -15 kt weapons can kill as many as peopleas projected for a global war in the 1980s
30001340Mt
50, 0.75Mt
7-19 million people
A 1980s counterforce attackby 3000 weapons
An attack by 50,15 kton weapons
4 million people
Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast
Fire storm in Hiroshimaabout three hours afterthe explosionhttp://www.atomicarchive.com
An oily, sooty,radioactive “black rain”fell on Hiroshima afterthe explosion
Fuel loading per person allows smokecalculation
Sooty smoke Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons
Smoke generated by 2000 weapons of100 kt yield
China
Russia
U.S.
Smoke generated in a SORT warCountry
attacked,
# of
100 kt weapons
Smoke
generated (Tg)
By Russia
France 200 6.5
Germany 200 7.3
India 200 21.4
Japan 200 11.9
Pakistan 200 11.0
U.K. 200 7.4
U.S. 1000 28.1
By U.S.
Russia 1100 26.9
China 1100 59.5
Total 4400 180
Smoke is observed to go into the uppertroposphere after large fires
The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb
28 May 2001Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)
Summary• Casualties in a regional war can be large-a war
between India and Pakistan could kill >20 million• An attack on the U.S. with 50, 15kt weapons could
kill ~4 million, comparable to a counterforce attack bythe Soviet Union. Therefore in coming decades acountry with 50 weapons and the means to deliverthem is effectively a superpower.
• A regional conflict between India and Pakistan couldproduce 7 million tons of smoke. This soot can lowertemperatures below any in the last 1000 years anddestroy the ozone layer.
• A global conflict with the SORT arsenal couldproduce 180 million tons of smoke similar to whatwas predicted for the 1986 arsenal, leading to iceage temperatures.
ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETALCONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR
CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov
Atmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007
• and
Based on the Papers:
MASSIVE GLOBAL OZONE LOSS PREDICTEDFOLLOWING REGIONAL NUCLEAR CONFLICT Michael J. Mills, Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Rolando R. Garcia
Pub. Nat. Acad. Science, 105, 5307-5312, 2008
