Η Βιομηχανική Πολιτική του ΗΒ και η επίδρασή της στις...

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ΑΡΙΣΤΟΤΕΛΕΙΟ ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΘΕΣΣΑΛΟΝΙΚΗΣ ΤΜΗΜΑ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΩΝ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑ ΜΕΤΑΠΤΥΧΙΑΚΩΝ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ «ΔΙΕΘΝΗ ΚΑΙ ΕΥΡΩΠΑΪΚΑ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΑ» Επιβλέπων καθηγητής: ΜΑΡΔΑΣ ΔΗΜΗΤΡΗΣ ΖΑΡΩΤΙΑΔΗΣ ΓΡΗΓΟΡΗΣ ΘΕΣΣΑΛΟΝΙΚΗ ΙΟΥΝΙΟΣ 2015
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Η φύση της βιομηχανικής πολιτικής έχει δημιουργήσει αρκετά αμφιλεγόμενες αντιδράσεις στους πολιτικοοικονομικούς κύκλους. Οι υπέρμαχοι του παρεμβατισμού τη θεωρούν απαραίτητη για τη διόρθωση των αδυναμιών της ελεύθερης αγοράς και την ενίσχυση του εμπορίου, ενώ οι υπέρμαχοι της ελεύθερης αγοράς θεωρούν ότι διαστρεβλώνει τον ανταγωνισμό και συνεπώς είναι επιβλαβής για την οικονομική ανάπτυξη. Το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο, αν και πρωτεργάτης των νηπιακών βιομηχανιών και της επιβολής δασμών στις εισαγωγές, από το 1860 εφαρμόζει μια ιδιαίτερα φιλελεύθερη στάση απέναντι στο εμπόριο. Ωστόσο η κρίση του 2008 έφερε στην επιφάνεια τις αδυναμίες της laissez faire πολιτικής, με την βρετανική κυβέρνηση να παρεμβαίνει ξανά όπου και όταν θεωρείται απαραίτητο. Σκοπός της παρούσας εργασίας είναι η παρουσίαση των μέτρων βιομηχανικής πολιτικής που έχει εφαρμόσει το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο για να ενισχύσει την εξαγωγική επίδοση των βρετανικών επιχειρήσεων και η εξέταση του αν και κατά πόσο αυτά έχουν πραγματικά επηρεάσει τις εξαγωγές του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου, μέσα από τις θεωρίες των Ricardo, Heckscher – Ohlin και Posner. Όντας το «εργαστήριο του κόσμου», οι περισσότερες πολιτικές του Ηνωμένου Βασιλείου είναι στραμμένες στην προώθηση των επενδύσεων σε Ε&Α και των συνεργασιών δημόσιου – ιδιωτικού τομέα, προς ενίσχυση των ΜΜΕ που κυριαρχούν στη βρετανική οικονομία. Στην εργασία μας εφαρμόσαμε OLS παλινδρόμηση για στοιχεία από 23 βρετανικούς βιομηχανικούς κλάδους για τα έτη 2009 – 2011. Τα αποτελέσματα της εμπειρικής μας ανάλυσης έδειξαν ότι οι πολιτικές που ενισχύουν την παραγωγικότητα και τις επενδύσεις σε Ε&Α έχουν σημαντική θετική επίδραση στις βρετανικές εξαγωγές, επιβεβαιώνοντας τις θεωρίες των Ricardo και Posner αντίστοιχα.

Transcript of Η Βιομηχανική Πολιτική του ΗΒ και η επίδρασή της στις...

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    2015

  • . , . , , 1860 . 2008 laissez faire , . , Ricardo, Heckscher Ohlin Posner. , & , . OLS 23 2009 2011. & , Ricardo Posner .

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  • ABSTRACT

    The nature of industrial policy has created quite controversial reactions in political and economic circles. The advocates of interventionism consider it necessary to correct the shortcomings of free market and t further strengthen trade, while the proponents of free market support that it distorts competition and is therefore harmful for growth. The United Kingdom, although a pioneer in infant industries and import tariffs, has been maintaining a very liberal attitude regarding trade since 1860. However, since global crisis of 2008 exposed the weaknesses of laissez faire policy, the British government was motivated to rethink its policy and started to intervene again as and when deemed necessary. The purpose of this study is to present the industrial policy measures adopted by the UK, in order to strengthen the UK export performance, and to examine whether and to what extent they actually have affected UK exports, taking into account the international trade theories of Ricardo, Heckscher - Ohlin and Posner. Being the "laboratory of the world", most UK policies promote R&D investment and public private sector cooperation, in order to help SMEs which dominate the British economy access finance, innovate and enter foreign markets. In our study we employ data regarding 23 British industries covering the period between 2009 2011. OLS regression is applied, along with CUSUM/CUSUM SQ tests. The results of our empirical analysis showed that policies which boost productivity and R&D investment have a significant positive impact on British exports, confirming Ricardos and Posners theory respectively, whereas the level of wages representing H O theory turned out to be insignificant.

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  • 1. ............................................................................................................................. 6

    2. .................................................................................................... 8

    2.1 ......................................................................... 8

    2.2 .................................................................... 9

    2.3 .............................. 12

    2.4 ................................................................. 16

    3. ............................................................................... 20

    3.1 ........................... 20

    3.2 ........................................................... 21

    3.2.1 ........................................ 22

    3.3 ........................................................................................ 27

    4. ............................................................................ 29

    4.1 ............................................................................................... 31

    5. ......................................................................................... 35

    5.1. RICARDO .......................................................... 35

    5.1.1 RICARDO ............................................................. 37

    5.2 HECKSCHER OHLIN .................................................... 38

    5.2.1 HECKSCHER OHLIN .................................... 39

    5.3 POSNER ................................................................... 41

    5.3.1 POSNER ................................................ 42

    6. . ............................................................................ 45

    6.1 . ...................................................................... 45

    6.2 . ................................................................... 48

    6.3 . ................................................... 52

    7. ........................................................................................................ 84

    7.1 ............................................................................................................... 84

    7.2 ...................................................................................... 85

    7.3 ..................................................................................... 86

    7.4 ................................................................. 88

    8. .......................................................................................................................... 89

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  • 1.

    . . . . Ricardo Heckscher Ohlin , Posner . , .

    , , , , , . . laissez faire , 2008, , . , , , .

    , , . , , . , , . , , . , .

    . ,

    6

  • . , . Ricardo, Heckscher Ohlin Posner . , , . . , 23 . , 2009 2011. (OLS) , &. & . , Ricardo Posner . , , .

    7

  • 2.

    (Peres and Primi, 2009). . , , (, , ) , , (, ) , , .. , .

    , (Warwick, 2013) . , , (Gilpin, 1996). , , - , , , , , , .

    2.1

    , . UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), , (DCED, 2014) . Peres and Primi (2009) . Reich, , , . Pinder , () , , () , () " " , () . (), ,

    8

  • , . Saggi and Pack (2006), Reich, , , . , , . , Rodrik (2007) , - . , , , , . , Johnson, , (Peres and Primi, 2009).

    , . , , . , , , (Rhodes, 2014).

    2.2

    , , , , .

    , . , , (Rhodes, 2014). 1. . , , , , . , . (Peres and Primi, 2009).

    1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policy 9

  • ( ) . clusters ( ) (Rhodes, 2014). , , . , (Peres and Primi, 2009). , . 2.

    , , Peres and Primi (2009) , , . . , , , , , .

    McKinsey Global ( 1.1). 1 2 , . , 3 4 . 3 . 4 , , . 4 , . 60 70. , , 3 . Fraunhofer, . ,

    2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_policy 10

  • , (CBI, 2012).

    () (). , , , .. , , &, (winners picking). , (Chang, 2009a). , , .

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    Rhodes (2014), , : , . , , . , . .

    , (Chang et al., 2013), . , , . ,

    11

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    ; ;. , , , . , , , . , , Chang et al. (2013), .

    2.3

    , , , .. , , , , . , Chang (2009b), , . . , , , , ( 1.2). , , , , .

    (infant industries argument), . . , , , , . Alexander Hamilton, 1790 . T Daniel Raymond Friedrich List, 1841 The National System of Political Economy. , (Chang et al., 2013), .

    12

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    , . () . , . , 1980 , /. , , , . , , 3.

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    3 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_industry_argument 13

  • (Budzinski and Schmidt, 2006, Rodrik, 2004), Schumpeter . , &, .

    . , . - Airbus - , . , , (Rodrik, 2007) , () . POSCO, , (EMBRAER), , .

    , (Chang et al., 2013) , . , , . , , . , , . , . , , .

    . , 2008, 4 , , . Mario Monti, , . '. , , , , .

    4 http://www.economist.com/node/16741043 14

  • , , . Concorde, , . Larry Summers : , . . . . , . . (Rodrik, 2007) .

    . (Chang et al., 2013, Rodrik, 2007), . , . . , ( ). , . . Peter Evans, , (), (), . , .

    Rodrik (2007) , , . , , spillovers . , , , . , (Warwick, 2013) , (Budzinski and Schmidt, 2006) . , ( ) , .

    15

  • , (Chang et al., 2013) . - 1980 2008, Mao - . , , , , , 1997 (2007 2012). , , ( ) ( , ).

    , . , (.., , ), , . , , (Chang et al., 2013), - , . , , . , (- ), .

    , , . (, , ). , (DCED, 2014), . , . , , , . , , . , , .

    2.4

    Saggi and Pack (2006) . ,

    16

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    , . (Chang et al., 2013). , . , , . () () , . , 70 , .

    . Lee, , 1962-1983 , , , , .. , , . , , Westphal (1990) . Lee, Beason and Weinstein (1996), 13 1955 1990, , , , , . , , . , () (, ), Lawrence and Weinstein (1999) , ,

    17

  • . , Sakakibara and Cho (2002) , &, 90. 237 184 , , 60. & &, . &.

    , , (Chang, 2009a) , . . :

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    18

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  • 3.

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    2020. , . , , 2014.

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    () , , . , 6 , 99% 7. 5 85% 2/3 . , , , .

    5 http://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/index_en.htm (25/3/2015) 6 C(2003) 1422 , , () 250 50 . 43 . . , 50 10 . . , 10 2 . . http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EL/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32003H0361&from=EN (25/3/2015) 7 http://ec.europa.eu/growth/smes/index_en.htm , 25/3/2015

    20

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    70 80 , (Budzinski and Schmidt, 2006). , , 1980 , . 1990 (COM (90) 556), . ,

    21

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    8 http://www.europarl.europa.eu/aboutparliament/en/displayFtu.html?ftuId=FTU_5.9.1.html , 25/3/2015 22

  • , ... , . , .

    2005 (COM (2007) 374), , . 2007 . . , , , 157 . . , -, .

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    COSME , 2014 2020 2,3 . , , Loan Guarantee Facility (LGF) Equity Facility for Growth (EFG), , . , entrepreneur. , 25 leverage effects.

    Horizon 2020 , , . Horizon 2020 , , 7 (2014 2020) 80 . , , , clusters . .

    26

  • , Horizon , Access to Risk Finance, EFG COSME . Innovation in SMEs, , . Innovation in SMEs :

    - project: 50.000 project

    - : 500.000 2,5 project

    - -

    . InnovFin (EU Finance for Innovators) (R&I projects) .

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    27

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    28

  • 4.

    . . , . , . . , , , , .

    , . , , (Dritsakis, 2006, Giles and Williams, 2000). Ricardo 1817, . , .

    . , (Wilkinson et al., 2005) , . , . , . 1990 , (UNCTAD) 38 (Diamantopoulos et al., 1993).

    , , , . (Durmuolu, 2012) , , , , , , , .

    , . (Diamantopoulos et al., 1993)

    29

  • . - , . (GATT)9 (Balassa, 1978, Ohashi, 2005, Pointon, 1978) (WTO)10 (Chang, 2009a, Crick, 1995), , . , (FDI), (, ), . , , , , , , .

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    a) 11 , /

    b)

    :

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    30

  • ,

    .

    4.1

    . Pointon (1978). Pointon , 137 , , / 21:1, 1 1975 , 21. , Spence (2003) , , . Durmuolu (2012) (. , ) . , , , . Spence , , , , .

    , . , , , (Crick, 1995). Crick (1995) 500 , 8 . , , . (Crick, 1997) , 1242 ,

    31

  • , . , , , , .

    , , . Gencturk and Kotabe (2001) , , 5 162 . , 3 : ( ), ( ) ( ). , . , . , 2 ( ) , . . Wilkinson and Brouthers (2000) 50 1990. , . Wilkinson et al. (2005) , , , 1994 - 2000. , .

    Freixanet (2012) 272 , , 2010, 15 . , , . Francis and CollinsDodd (2004) 175 .

    32

  • , . , , .

    Ohashi (2005) , . , , , .

    Balassa (1978) 11 12, , 1966 1973. , , . , , , , , . Miocevic (2013) Strengthening International Competitiveness, . 139 , , .

    , Ayob and Freixanet (2014) , . , . , , . , Jalali (2012) 7 , ( , , ). , , .

    , , , . (Gencturk and Kotabe, 2001, Jalali, 2012, Wilkinson et al., 2005). , . ,

    12 , , , , , , , , 33

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    34

  • 5.

    . , . . (, , ..) , (Gilpin, 1996) .

    . , . . , , , , , , (Gilpin, 1996).

    , , , . , , Adam Smith, . Smith , , . , , . , , 13.

    5.1. RICARDO

    , Smith , , . , , . Smith , (Gilpin, 1996, , 2006). David Ricardo (1817),

    13 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Smith 35

  • , . Ricardo :

    ()

    .

    Ricardo, () (, ) (, ) , 14, . () . () . () , , . . . () . () () (, 2010, and , 1998, , 2006).

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    14 Ricardo , , .

    36

  • 5.1.1 RICARDO

    Paul Samuelson . , .

    , . MacDougall (1951) o 25 1930. 20 25 , , , . MacDougall, Paige Bombach Balassa Stern. Balassa (1963) 28 42% 1951 . Balassa Ricardo US/ UK 9% (Ex US/Ex UK) 13%. Stern (1962) Paige Bombach, 39 , , , , .

    Glejser (1972) 1958 1966 . ( ) 1958 1966. , Glejser , , 1958 1966 15 36 .

    Ricardo, . Bernard and Jensen (1999) , , , Yamada (1998) De Loecker (2007) . . Bernard and Jensen (2004)

    37

  • , Arnold and Hussinger (2005) . Kim et al. (2009) , panel data analysis 1335 8 1997 2003. , 3 8 , : , . , Golub and Hsieh (2000) , , , , , , , 13 . (/), . , , .

    5.2 HECKSCHER OHLIN

    19 20 . (Gilpin, 1996) , . , , , .

    Heckscher Ohlin. Eli Heckscher 1919, , Bertil Ohlin, , Paul Samuelson . . , . (Gilpin, 1996), (, 2006).

    H O : () 2 2 2 , . () , . () - . . () 15

    15 38

  • 16. () Ricardo . () . K/L>1, , K/L
  • (Branson and Monoyios, 1977) Leontief, .

    Kravis (1956). Kravis Heckscher Ohlin . ( ) , H O. . , , .

    Moroney and Walker (1966) H O , , . H O, , . H O, . , , H O, , , , . , , H O, .

    H O. Harkness and Kyle (1975) , logit , , , , . , , . Carlsson and Ohlsson (1976) : / / .

    , Davies (1975) , 1963, H O. , , ()

    40

  • () . H O, . 10 15 9 10 () 6 10 (). H O 5 . , ( =0.837) (/L) .

    5.3 POSNER

    Heckscher Ohlin , , . 1960 .

    Michael V. Posner , , . , , , . , (Gandolfo, 1998 ).

    Posner, , , , . (, 2006) , 17 . Posner (Krugman and Obstfeld, 2011, , 2006):

    (1) : .

    (2) : .

    (3) :

    17 .

    41

  • (L) : , L = I1 + I2 + I3

    () : .

    (L )

    Posner , . , . . (Krugman and Obstfeld, 2011) , .

    Hufbauer (, 2006) , , , . , . Hufbauer , . . , , . , , , , , . . , , , , , .

    5.3.1 POSNER

    , Posner . , , & & , , .

    Keesing (1967) &

    42

  • . , &, 10 1962. & & . Gruber et al. (1967) , & , & .

    Mardas (1994) Keesing - & & . & , . & , Soete (1981), , . Soete, Cotsomitis et al. (1991) 14 1964 1984. , Soete, Posner, 11% .

    Hughes (1986) Wakelin (1998). Hughes 46 . , , , &, . . , Wakelin (firm level analysis) 320 , , 1988 1992, , tobit probit. , , . , . ,

    43

  • , ( ). Wakelin Nassimbeni (2001) , firm level analysis 165 , OLS tobit .

    , , de Negri et al. (2007) . 2SLS (two stage least squares) AGLS (Anemiyas general least squares) & , . , Yang and Chen (2012) & , , learning-by-exporting.

    44

  • 6. . 6.1 .

    3 , 5 2014 ( ). 2014 $2,522 $37.955 ( 6.1, 6.2), 24 . ( ) , , . Factbook CIA 2014 11 6 , ( 6.1 6.3). (HM Treasury), , , (Business, Innovation and Skills BIS Department). 1979, Margaret Thatcher , laissez faire .

    , , . , , , . , (Cities Outlook Report by Centre for Cities)18. Simon Danczuk, Rochdale (Regional Growth Fund) , . , . , 2010 2012 , 20 30 ( 6.1). , 80% 2010 2012. , , , (Aberdeen) .

    (Commonwealth of Nations), , G7, G8, G20, ,

    18 http://www.centreforcities.org/publication/cities-outlook-2014/ http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jan/19/north-south-divide-widen-thinktank-data http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30869982 https://societycentral.ac.uk/2015/02/24/devolution-answer-north-south-divide/

    45

  • (IMF), , (WTO), (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank). , , , . ()19.

    , 78% . , ( ). , , , 20% , ( 6.4, 6.5). 2 , BAE Systems 2 Rolls Royce 2 20 , . , 3 &. , , , 60% 2% . , , . , 250 ( 2007). 2005 , .

    (18 .) (19 .), , . , , . 19 , 2 , , . , , , 2,9% 1960 1973, 500.000 60. , 1973 1990, , 20 Margaret Thatcher, ( 6.7) 5% ( 6.6). 1990,

    19 , ( ) , .

    46

  • , Tony Blair 2008 .

    2008 , . , , , 2008 . G7 ( ) . , ( ), Cameron, 2010 , 11% 2010 1% 2015. , Cameron , 17,5% 20% 2011, 20% 2015, ( 6.3). , G7, 5,4% 2014.

    , 11 2014, $503,4 5% 2013 ($476,6 ) ( 6.1):

    $92,7 ( , , ),

    $69,4 ( , ), $63,8 ( , ,

    ), $60,5 (, ), $27,6 ( , ), $23,6 (, , ).

    (12%), (10,93%), (7,58%), (6,87%), (5,54%), (5,05%) (3,71%) ( 6.2). $4,367 ( 2015) 1955 2015 $-1,958 ( 6.8). , , , , , .

    2010, . , ( 6.4),

    47

  • . , $30 . , 28% 2010 20% 2015 patent box, , .

    , 20, 2014 20 . (Office for National Statistics ONS) 21% 6 G7 - , , , , , . ONS 1992. 1990 2000, G7 10%, 2008 , , 5 . 2012, ( 6.10), G7. 2014, , . , Centre of Macroeconomics, 50 , 2/3 .

    6.2 .

    , laissez faire . , (Chang et al., 2013), Robert Walpole, 1721, , 1860, , , . , 1860 , 20% 2% , 17% , 19% ( 2012). , ,

    20 http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/01/uk-productivity-growth-is-weakest-since-wwii-says-ons http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/feb/20/britain-productivity-gap-widens

    48

  • 2008 , . Rodrik (2004) , , , .

    , (Rowlatt, 2012). 1979 , . , , , . , , . , 2008, (Mason and Nathan, 2014), , , Vince Cable, , , ().

    , 1970, , . , , , , , , (). 2011, 1/3 . , 10% . 3 (Chang and Andreoni, 2014), , . 1997 2007, ( ). , , 4% , 2/3 & 1/3 .

    () 250 50.000.000. , 99% , 14 ( 6.3). , 2012,

    49

  • 10.000 9,8 . , 4.790.000 3,56 . 14,1 . . , . 76% 2008, , , , . , .. , . , , , , , (Morse, 2013).

    , , (Department of Business, Innovation and Skills) (HM Treasury). () , () , , , , () , () , , , . , . , , , . (UK Export Finance) , . . . , ( ) ( ).

    (Rowlatt, 2012) , , :

    , , , .

    50

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    . . , . .

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    51

  • , 4% .

    6.3 .

    , 21.

    , , .

    :

    - Aerospace Business Leaders Aerospace Growth

    Partnership, .

    - 2 , .

    - 500 . - (Manufacturing Accelerator Programme)

    , .

    - Skills Working Group,

    - 90

    . - Agri tech Catalyst Fund 70

    . - (UK Trade and Investment UKTI,

    ), , .

    -

    Automotives Council. 2009 . ,

    21https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/industrial-strategy-next-steps--4 52

  • .

    - 1 (Advanced Propulsion Centre) .

    - 7600 1.700 .

    - (Automotive Investment Organisation), inward .

    - Construction Leadership Council,

    , Vince Cable, .

    - . -

    .

    - Construction is GREAT .

    - 1,6

    online . - 5G . - online .

    - marketing Education is

    GREAT. - Education UK

    . - UK Education Champion

    .

    - 310 .

    - Seed Enterprise Investment .

    -

    15 .

    - 18 project .

    - 12,5 .

    Offshore - 20 GROW

    offshore .

    53

  • - Catapult Centre Offshore 46 .

    - Offshore Wind Investment .

    - (Oil and Gas Industry Council)

    , .

    - (National Centre of Excellence) .

    - .

    - 7 (extreme engineering centre) Newcastle, .

    - 10.000 . -

    . -

    .

    (Willets, 2013). , . , , - . .

    600 &, , , . Catapult Centres, . , . , 1,5 , 2011 600 . :

    , 189

    (computing) ,

    54

  • . , , 23,5 Economic and Social Research Council. , 100.000 , , .

    , , (nano-satelites). 35 National Space Technology Programme (space-based systems).

    , , .

    160 , UK Research Councils22 Innovate UK23. start up , &.

    projects, rover

    , . , , , . 35 .

    , . , 3 : () , , () - () . UK Regenerative Medicine Platform 25 , 75 (cleanroom) 20 .

    22 Research Councils . 23 Innovate UK , , , Swindon 250 . , .

    55

  • 65 , Rothamsted Research Campus, National Plant Phenomics Centre Aberystwyth, Harwell Oxford SciTech Daresbury. .

    .

    170 , 15% 50 , . (45 ) , , , . , National Composites Centres 28 , ,

    , , . Research Council, 630 , &, .

    , , , & , , . , &, . 350 (Centres for Doctoral Training) , , , .. , , Research Partnership for Investment Fund. 1 . .

    ACCESS TO FINANCE

    (2011). , ,

    56

  • , , , , .

    Access to Finance - , . . , , , . Access to Finance :

    Enterprise Finance Guarantee Enterprise Finance Guarantee (EFG)

    , 1.000 1.200.000. 2008 , . EFG : - - 41.000.000 - 1.000 1.200.000 - 3 10

    3 3 (overdrafts) invoice

    - EFG . : , , , , , , , , .

    Start up Loans

    18 30 . 2.500 , business plan , event newsletter , .

    Business Finance Partnership

    , 1,2 , . Business Finance Partnership 2 : -

    , 500 . 6 863 1 . 705 18 880 .

    57

  • - , 75 . 7 85 240 .

    UK Innovation Investment Fund

    . 2 -, (venture capital funds) , , , : - UK Future Technology Fund, 200

    start-ups . , .

    - To Hermes Environmental Impact Fund, 125 , , . , 2010, , .

    Enterprise Capital Funds / 2006

    . , , , , . 25 16 (Fund). 530 .

    Business Angel Co-Investment Fund

    , . 100 , Regional Growth Fund 2012, . , . , 250 50 , .

    58

  • , .

    , :

    Funding for Lending

    2012. . 2015, , 2016.

    British Business Bank

    , . .

    , Vince Cable, 2012, 1 . , , . 1 2013, Capital for Enterprise Limited (CfEL), British Business Bank. 250 15 2014, . Capital for Enterprise Limited (CfEL), Enterprise Capital Funds, Enterprise Finance Guarantee Business Angel Co-investment Funds, .

    British Business Bank 25. , , , , . 4 :

    Venture Capital Solutions. ( : Business Ange Co-Fund, Enterprise Capital Funds).

    Lending Solutions. , ( : Start-Up Loans, Enterprise Finance Guarantee).

    Investment Programmes. , (debt funds), peer-to-peer, .

    59

  • Wholesale Solutions. .

    , .

    , fora , . , .

    :

    Apprenticeships () ,

    1 4 ( ). 16 , ( . ) . , . : - 30 - - - ( )

    , 280.000 2009/10 510.000 2012/13, .

    Traineeships ( )

    . , , 16 24 . .

    Employee Ownership Pilot.

    : . 340 , , , . .

    60

  • , .

    Growth and Innovation Fund project , ,

    . Employee Ownership Pilot . 37 project 41 55 .

    Employer Investment Fund

    . , , . Sector Skills Councils , . . 87 , 70,3 53,9 .

    UK Futures Programme

    R&D , , project .

    . , 2012/13 230 . , 80 .

    . , , , :

    25% 2015. , , .

    , , , , . (tunneling),

    61

  • .

    (Start Ups)

    Start up Loans , .

    Business is GREAT , . , , . , :

    Business Growth Service , ,

    . . , 250 40 . , () , () , () , () () .

    Mentorsme mentorsme

    (British Bankers Association). mentoring, , (mentoring) , marketing . , , . , , .

    27.000 40.000. mentoring , , , , . mentorsme. , start-ups, .

    62

  • Growth Vouchers Growth Voucher.

    , . Growth Voucher

    : () , () , () , () marketing, () . online , voucher 2.000 . online. :

    i. 250 ( )

    ii. ( , . )

    iii. / iv. ( 25%

    ) v. 50 .

    Small Business Charter , . , , -- mentoring. voucher 3.000 60% . 10 3 , 9 . , , . :

    i. ii. 1 19

    iii. / , 12 iv. 3,2 v. ( 25%

    ).

    Advanced Manufacturing Supply Chain Initiative Vince Cable

    63

  • . . , , .

    , . , (first tier producers) , , . .

    , first - tier 24. . Advanced Manufacturing Supply Chain Initiative (AMSCI).

    AMSCI , &, , . , , . , , 4 240 .

    Catapult centres

    . , , . , .

    catapult centres , . ( ) . , .

    9 Catapult Centres :

    24 First tier producer , . 64

  • catapult centre

    . 200 Innovate UK, & &. 10 15 .

    Catalysts Catalyst () &

    project . ( , ), , , . , project. 4 Catalysts: , , .

    150.000 10 60% project. ( ) 4 project.

    Collaborative research and development Collaborative R&D , Innovate UK

    , . . 25.000 5.000.000, 60% project. , , , project.

    Eurostars Eurostars

    , , . project , , . , , .

    Eurostars Innovate UK. 300.000 project 50% project.

    65

  • ( 2 ). , project , .

    Feasibility Funding Grants 400.000 Innovate UK

    , . , , , . project Collaboration Nation event. 70% project, 100% . project .

    Horizon 2020 Horizon 2020, ,

    . Innovate UK , , , , Horizon 2020, :

    -

    -

    - . Innovation Vouchers

    5.000 , , . Catapult Centres . , . . : - Start ups, micro - ,

    - Innovation Voucher .

    Knowledge Transfer Partnerships (KTP) Knowledge Transfer Partnerships

    : - ,

    / - ,

    project

    66

  • - , ,

    - .

    project , . ( ) project. , . : 67% project, 50%. 80.000. , , , / .

    Launchpads

    Innovate UK , clusters, . , , , , . 100.000 project. , . :

    - ,

    - - - ,

    , cluster

    - . Small Business Research Initiative (SBRI)

    , . , . , . , , &. , start ups . 50.000 100.000

    67

  • , 1.000.000 .

    Smart Grants Smart

    . start up , , , , . , , , .

    25.000 250.000 . 9 25.000 60% project. 18 100.000 60% project, 250.000 35% , 45% .

    Open Access Gateway to Research

    , Open Access Gateway to Research. Innovate UK Research Councils .

    , . :

    Local Enterprise Partnerships LEPs ( ) 2010 Regional

    Development Agencies Local Enterprise Partnerships. LEPs , , . 39 LEPs ( 6.2), . LEPs . , , , , . LEPs . LEPs

    68

  • Regional Growth Fund Growing Places Fund.

    LEPs, , Enterprise Zones, . LEP , Enterprise Zone, , .

    Enterprise Zones ( )

    LEPs, . , 50 150 , LEP , . 24 ( 6.2). , , :

    - 275.000 5

    - ,

    - - 100%

    8 . , , , 25 . 2012, , . 430 2 , 12.500 .

    University Enterprise Zones UEZ ( ) University Enterprise Zones

    . UEZ , LEP . 15 4 UEZs Bradford, Bristol, Liverpool Nottingham. UEZs 1 , 2 . , UEZs , (UKTI) .

    69

  • : -

    LEPs,

    - .

    Growing Places Fund 730 Growing Places Fund

    , . (LEPs) . Growing Places Fund , , .

    Regional Growth Fund ( ) (RGF)

    3,2 . , . . RGF , RGF , . , . 2,85 9.400 , 1 , 5,5. 100.000 , 600.000 2020. , 1,1 , :

    364 100 104 .

    RGF : - - - - - - ,

    . project

    RGF, project . ,

    70

  • RGF Independent Advisory Panel25, , project .

    Economic Assets Programme (Home and Communities Agency - HCA)

    Economic Assets . :

    -

    - , ,

    - , HCA

    - , , ,

    - , .

    HCA 300 , 300 , , , LEPs, , . , , / , HCA .

    . (UK Trade and Investment UKTI) UK Export Finance (UKEF) , , , .

    UKTI

    - : Passport to Export

    Passport to Export . ,

    25 , , , .

    71

  • . , : () , () , () () . , , .

    UKTI 12 . UKTI. :

    - - - - - - event -

    UKTI e-Exporting programme

    (e marketplaces), Amazon eBay, . cookies . online , UKTI , Amazon (), Mercado Libre ( ) Alibaba (). :

    -

    - online ,

    -

    - event . ,

    () , () URL , () , () , , () () marketing .

    ExportSavvy ExportSavvy online

    . , . . ,

    72

  • , , , , , , . , ExportSavvy 15 , .

    Export Insight Visits 2

    . :

    - ,

    - UKTI

    - ,

    - ,

    - .

    . . 200 , , event.

    - : UKTI e-Exporting programme ( ) Export Communications Review

    , . , , . , . , , , , , , , , , , social media .

    , , :

    - , ,

    73

  • -

    - . review 500 . , , 2 250 250 UKTI 3 reviews.

    Export Marketing Research Scheme

    marketing , . UKTI marketing . , 50% Export Marketing Research project, , 28 marketing .

    . , :

    - 5 250 - 2

    - / -

    . Overseas Market Introduction Service

    UKTI 100 . UKTI, , . 26, . UKTI . :

    - - - (, , ) -

    , () () , / .

    , . ,

    26 Welsh Government, Scottish Development International, Invest Northern Ireland 74

  • 500 .

    - :

    Medium Sized Business Programme

    . UKTI . , . :

    - UKTI

    -

    -

    - - UKTI - marketing -

    - UKEF - ,

    (, trademarks, designs ..) -

    25 250 , . , .

    - : Tradeshow Access Programme (TAP)

    Tradeshow Access , . , . (design, ). 12 , 6 20 27 . :

    - , ,

    - ( Isle of Man Channel Islands)

    27 , , , . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . ,

    75

  • - - ( 25%

    ) 10 - -

    . Aid Funded Business service

    project . , , , . UKTI .

    , , , , , , , , . , .

    Market Visit Support service

    . , UKTI. , , 200 950. 250 , . , . .

    High Value Opportunities programme

    . , 500 . 100 . , . , . , .

    Postgraduates for International Business programme

    ,

    76

  • . , , , marketing, . , UKTI, , . , . .

    UKEF

    Export Insurance Policy ( )

    ( ), . 95% .

    () , () , , , , () , , .

    . :

    - - - 2 UKEF

    28

    - .

    Bond Insurance Policy ( ) ,

    , . 100% , , . :

    - - - bid bond tender bond

    . Export Working Capital ( )

    28 , , , , , , , 77

  • , . , . , , UKEF 80% .

    UKEF, , . :

    - -

    ,

    - 75%

    - Letter of Credit Guarantee ( 29)

    50% 90% , () () . . UKEF, , . :

    - -

    , -

    (. 10) -

    1 , 1 .

    Supplier Credit Financing Facility UKEF

    , / . , , , / . , /

    29 () (). , , , () . , , . , .

    78

  • , .

    () () UKEF. 85% 2 .

    Buyer Credit Facility Buyer Credit Facility

    . /, , 5 . , / . . () , () 5 () UKEF.

    Direct Lending Facility UKEF ,

    . , 20 . 3 . , , . , UKEF. 85% 2 . .

    Lines of Credit UKEF

    . () / () . UKEF , . 25.000 UKEF.

    Overseas Investment Insurance

    , , . ( )

    79

  • , , . :

    - , , - ,

    - , ,

    : -

    - -

    ,

    Debt Conversion Scheme

    UKEF. , , UKEF . : UKEF , . .

    : , , , , , , , , . :

    - - /

    - , , - , ,

    - UKEF,

    .

    , . , . , TIGA HSBC :

    80

  • 28% 20%, 21% 20%. G7. , .

    ,

    . , , . , , , , .

    Patent Box

    , 10% .

    &

    & 250 , 11%. 2.450.

    .

    , 100 , , , .

    (annual investment allowance) , ,

    100% .

    Enterprise Zones business rate discount ,

    275.000 5 .

    Entrepreneurs Relief

    , 10% 18% 28%. 2010 Entrepreneurs Relief 2 10 , .

    81

  • , .

    : - ,

    . () () 1 .

    - , 5%. () () .

    - . Employment Allowance

    2.000 . , , 1 . , :

    - , . , ,

    - , , . , . .

    - IR35 Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS)

    Enterprise Investment Scheme 1994 , . :

    - 30% 30% . 1.000.000 , 300.000 .

    - . 30%.

    - 3 .

    : () 15 , () 250 , () () . : () 30% () / .

    82

  • Seed Enterprise Investment Scheme (SEIS)

    . To SEIS EIS, .

    . 50% , 100.000. , 3 . , SEIS. , 100.000.

    : - 150.000

    - 25 - 200.000

    - ,

    HMRC SEIS/EIS - ,

    - 30% .

    83

  • 7.

    Ricardo, Heckscher Ohlin Posner . , , , , . Ricardo, Heckscher Ohlin Posner.

    7.1

    , Eurostat, ..., UN Comtrade, 2009, 2010 2011 . .

    , . NACE Revision 2 ( ) Eurostat. :

    1. (C10) 2. (C11) 3. (C13) 4. (C14) 5. (C15) 6. (C16) ( )

    7. (C17) 8. (C18) 9. (C19) 10. (C20) 11. (C21) 12. (C22) 13. (C23) 14. (C24) 15. (C25) , 16. (C26) , 17. (C27) 18. (C28) 19. (C29) ,

    20. (C30) 21. (C31) 22. (C32) 30 23. (D35) , ,

    30 , , ( ), faux bijoux, .

    84

  • Eurostat 2009, 2010, 2011. :

    a. (Turnover), , . . (, , ..) , . .

    b. (Production Value), , , . , , . .

    c. (Value Added at factor cost), , . .

    d. (Wages and Salaries) . e. (Number of persons employed),

    ( , ), , , , .

    f. (Business enterprise expenditure on R&D BERD), , . .

    , . 2009, 2010, 2011, ..., UN Comtrade, SITC Revision 4 . , , . , , .

    7.2

    . . :

    : Production Value/Number of Persons Employed, Ricardo

    : Wages&Salaries/Value Added, Heckscher Ohlin

    85

  • & : Business Expenditure on R&D/Turnover, Posner.

    , , , (X/M).

    (OLS), , Microfit. , , & , , .

    , 2009, 2010, 2011, 2008. 31, , , . , . . , , , , . , , .

    , 7.1 7.8.

    7.3 , :

    LXM = C + A1 LPRE + A2 LWVA + A3 LRDT + U, :

    LXM .. X/M 2009-2011 LPRE .. Production Value/Number of persons

    employed 2009-2011 LWVA .. Wages & Salaries/Value added

    at factor cost 2009-2011 LRDT .. & BERD/Turnover 2009-2011.

    :

    LXM = -2.1937 + 0.2137 LPRE 0.3206 LWVA + 0.2046 LRDT

    31 , 9 2007, BNP Paribas, , hedge funds. , , Northern Rock, , Bank of England. , 2008. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Rock

    86

  • :

    -2,1937, . , / , .

    LPRE , 0.2137, 90%, p-value = 0.096 < 0.1. , 1% 0.21369%, Ricardo.

    LWVA p-value = 0.377 >> 0,1. , H O . .

    LRDT , 0.2046, 99%, p-value = 0.003 > 0.05, DW.

    ii. RESET (Regression Specification Error Test) Ramsey , p-value=0.049 < 0.05, .

    iii. , p-value=0.687 > 0.05, .

    iv. , p-value=0.845 > 0.05.

    , , LWVA. :

    87

  • LXM = C + A1 LPRE + A2 LRDT + U

    LPRE (0.27931) p-value=0.01 < 0.05. , LRDT (p-value=0.004 < 0.05) (0.19425). R-bar-squared = 0.45706, LWVA. p-value = 0.106 > 0.05, , .

    , CUSUM CUSUMSQ. ( ) = 5% ( ). CUSUM , CUSUM SQ . , ( 7.1, 7.2).

    7.4

    :

    LXM = -1.7286 + 0.2793 LPRE + 0.1942 LRDT

    &, . , , , &, , , , . , , & .

    88

  • 8.

    7 , , &. & , Ricardo Posner, , .

    (Chang, 2010). ' , , , - , . , , , . , , , , , .

    , 2008, , , 30% . , , , , . , . . , .

    . , (Rodrik, 2010). . . (Mason and Nathan, 2014), , , .

    89

  • ; Centre for British Enterprise (CBI, 2012) , Chang and Andreoni (2014) Pryce (2012) , , , . , , . , . , . (Lees and di Giovanni, 2010) (Revealed Comparative Advantage) , , , , &. , , . , .

    , , project, . , & (Mason and Nathan, 2014), , (, , , ), , . , , &, .

    , , , , . & , . , . . , , , , . , , , firm level analysis, .

    90

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