Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing
Hugo LambertUniversity of Exeter
thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi
1955-2003
Lambert and Chiang, (2007)
OLS regression for 1955-2003
Model Φ
GFDL CM 2 0 1.4 +/- 0.2
GFDL CM 2 1 1.5 +/- 0.2
GISS E-R 1.5 +/- 0.1
MIROC 1.5 +/- 0.2
MRI 0.9 +/- 0.2
Observations 1.6 +/- 0.1
OLS regression for 1955-2003: residual
varianceModel r
GFDL CM 2 0 0.020
GFDL CM 2 1 0.021
GISS E-R 0.013
MIROC 0.016
MRI 0.029
Observations 0.009
Into the future
Some references
Hansen et al., (1983)
Manabe et al., (1991)
Huntingford and Cox, (2000)
Sutton et al., (2007)
Joshi et al., (2008)
Structure of talk
• Motivation
• Simple model of land-sea contrast.
• Comparison with complex models.
• Some stuff that I don't really understand.
∆N = ∆Q, ∆T = 0
∆N = 0, ∆T = ∆Teq
∆T = 3K, ∆N = ∆T / λ
∆Ain some idealised 2xCO2
and prescribedSST experiments.
And ∆TL against∆TO
Structure of talk
• Motivation
• Simple model of land-sea contrast.
• Comparison with complex models.
• Some stuff that I don't really understand.
© Crown copyright Met Office
CRUTEM3
vs
HadISST2
1900-1954 1955-2008
© Crown copyright Met Office
CRUTEM3
vs
HadISST2
(masked to 1900)
1900-1954 1955-2008
© Crown copyright Met Office
1900-1954 1955-2008
CRUTEM3
vs
HadISST2
(masked to 1900)
1.5 +/- 0.4
0.7 +/- 0.3
© Crown copyright Met Office
1900-1954 1955-2008
HadISST2
(masked to 1900)
© Crown copyright Met Office
1900-1954 1955-2008
1900-1954, constant Φ
HadISST2
(masked to 1900)
Conclusions
Annual mean ∆TL / ∆TO is remarkably constant – especially in observations.
Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport.
Early 20th century behaviour is different / problematic.
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