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Page 1: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

 Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing    

Hugo LambertUniversity of Exeter

thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

Page 2: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

1955-2003

Lambert and Chiang, (2007)

Page 3: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

OLS regression for 1955-2003

Model Φ

GFDL CM 2 0 1.4 +/- 0.2

GFDL CM 2 1 1.5 +/- 0.2

GISS E-R 1.5 +/- 0.1

MIROC 1.5 +/- 0.2

MRI 0.9 +/- 0.2

Observations 1.6 +/- 0.1

Page 4: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

OLS regression for 1955-2003: residual

varianceModel r

GFDL CM 2 0 0.020

GFDL CM 2 1 0.021

GISS E-R 0.013

MIROC 0.016

MRI 0.029

Observations 0.009

Page 5: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

Into the future

Page 6: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

Some references

Hansen et al., (1983)

Manabe et al., (1991)

Huntingford and Cox, (2000)

Sutton et al., (2007)

Joshi et al., (2008)

Page 7: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

Structure of talk

• Motivation

• Simple model of land-sea contrast.

• Comparison with complex models.

• Some stuff that I don't really understand.

Page 8: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

∆N = ∆Q, ∆T = 0

Page 9: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

∆N = 0, ∆T = ∆Teq

Page 10: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

∆T = 3K, ∆N = ∆T / λ

Page 11: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

∆Ain some idealised 2xCO2

and prescribedSST experiments.

Page 12: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

And ∆TL against∆TO

Page 13: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

Structure of talk

• Motivation

• Simple model of land-sea contrast.

• Comparison with complex models.

• Some stuff that I don't really understand.

Page 14: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

© Crown copyright Met Office

CRUTEM3

vs

HadISST2

1900-1954 1955-2008

Page 15: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

© Crown copyright Met Office

CRUTEM3

vs

HadISST2

(masked to 1900)

1900-1954 1955-2008

Page 16: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

© Crown copyright Met Office

1900-1954 1955-2008

CRUTEM3

vs

HadISST2

(masked to 1900)

1.5 +/- 0.4

0.7 +/- 0.3

Page 17: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

© Crown copyright Met Office

1900-1954 1955-2008

HadISST2

(masked to 1900)

Page 18: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

© Crown copyright Met Office

1900-1954 1955-2008

1900-1954, constant Φ

HadISST2

(masked to 1900)

Page 19: Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi.

Conclusions

Annual mean ∆TL / ∆TO is remarkably constant – especially in observations.

Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport.

Early 20th century behaviour is different / problematic.