ESTIMATING THE MELTING OF TROPICAL GLACIERS USING LOCAL, REGIONAL, AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELING

OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.

OVERALL OBJECTIVES: Define mathematical relationships between monthly and seasonal hydro meteorological data to determine the extent and rate of glacier melting from Glaciar 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana Volcano in Ecuador. Quantify the temporal melting behavior into local, regional, and global hydro meteorological data.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.

INTRODUCTION: Long-term water supplies for large cities in the Andes, such as Quito, Ecuador, may be in jeopardy due to increasing rates of glacial melting. Melting rates in the tropics of South America in the past years have experienced greater amounts of retreat (Cáceres, et. al., 2005.; Sémiond, et. al., 1998). Climate data from a range of spatial (local, regional, and global) and temporal (monthly and seasonal) scales in conjunction with direct observations of melting of Glacier 15α and Los Crespos formed the basis for initial modeling of climate change effects on glacier hydrology.

STUDY AREA AND BASIC DATA: ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR, SOUTH AMERICA

BIBLIOGRAPHY:Cáceres, B., Maisincho, L., Taupin, J.D., Francou, B., Cadier, E., Delachaux, F., Bucher, R., Villacís, M., Paredes, D., Chazarin, J.P., Garcés, A., y Remy Laval, 2005. Glaciares del Ecuador: Antizana y Carihuayrazo. Balance de masa, Topografía, Meteorología e Hidrología. Informe del año 2004. IRD, INAMHI, EMAAP-QUITO. Quito.Sémiond, H., Francou, B., Ayabaca, E., De la Cruz, A. y Ramón Chango. 1998. El Glaciar 15 del Antizana Investigaciones glaciológicas 1994 – 1997. IFEA-ORSTOM, ORSTOM-CNRS, EMAAP-QUITO, INAMHI. Quito.Freile, Daniela & Manciati Carla, 2007 Relación a escala mensual y estacional entre la información hidrometeorológica local y regionaly la fusión de los glaciares tropicales del Ecuador. Casos de estudio: Glaciar15 y Glaciar “CRESPOS” del nevado Antisana. Tesis de Grado. Escuela Politécnica Nacional.

http://www.exploringecuador.com/maps/region_todas.htm

ECUADOR

Glacier 15 α and Los Crespos study areaSource: INFORME ANUAL 2004 GREATICEDrawn by: Cáceres & Villacís, 2005

LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL INFORMATIONLOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers.

LOCAL DATA: The GREATICE Project (INAMHI, EMAAP-Q, IRD) provided local information (precipitation, temperature, runoff) for 8 meteorological stations located in the Antisana Volcano from 1995 through 2005 for Glacier 15α and Los Crespos Glaciers.

REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito)

REGIONAL DATA: INAMHI provided regional information (precipitation and temperature) from 50 meteorological stations nationwide, including the oldest meteorological recording station in Ecuador (Observatiorio Astronómico de Quito)

ANTISANA VOLCANO, ECUADOR

GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation.

GLOBAL DATA: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu) provided global data on temperature, humidity, specific humidity, El Niño and ENSO indices, wind velocity and reflected long-wave radiation.

Daniela Freile1, Carla Manciati1,2, and Remigio Galárraga-Sánchez1,3

world water day, march 22 2010

LOCAL INDICES, REGIONAL VARIABLES AND GLOBAL REANALYSIS

MODELS TO EXPLAIN MELTING IN THE ABLATION ZONE AND LOCAL, REGIONAL AND GLOBAL HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES

LOCAL AND REGIONAL MODEL

FULL REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODEL

SIMPLIFIED REGIONAL MODEL

CONCLUSIONS:1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4.4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos.5.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers.

CONCLUSIONS:1. Melting from high altitude glaciers located in the tropics of South America are subject to the direct influence of global temperature and it has been subject to an increasing rate in the past 30 years.2. The great variability in the melting in the last 30 years show that changes are mainly subject to the variability of temperature and precipitation, but it is not clear if these changes are due to human intervention.3.A linear combination of local precipitation—using a 9-month lag at station Paramo—and precipitation (M376) and temperature (M003) from regional meteorological stations reflects the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos in the Antisana. 4.4. A linear combination of high-altitude temperature (700 mb of pressure) together with regional temperature (M003) and precipitation (M736) accounts for the time variability of melting from glaciers 15α and Los Crespos.5.5. A simple linear regression between regional temperature (M003) and melting balance from glaciers 15 α and los Crespos represents the melting behavior of these two high-altitude tropical glaciers.

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MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIERRA (IPCC)

INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO INVERSO BALANCE CALCULADO Variación de Temperatura Superficie Terrestre

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MODELIZACIÓN DE LA FUSIÓN VS. VARIACIÓN DE TEMPERATURA DE LA SUPERFICIE DE LA TIERRA (IPCC)

INVERSO BALANCE OBSERVADO INVERSO BALANCE GENERADO Variación de Temperatura de la Superficie Terrestre

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LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.

LOCAL INDICES: precipitation with 2 and 9 months lag in the stations located in the glacier and in the paramo area were used as meteorological indices to define the degree of melting from the glacier.REGIONAL VARIABLES: Principal component analysis showed that there is a 38% in variance between local and regional stations located at the mountain zone (Highland region) and the Amazon region.GLOBAL REANALYSIS: ENSO, SOI, zonal wind, relative humidity, temperature reanalysis were used for these models, but temperature was the best variable to explain the melting from the glacier.

Antisana Icecap

South America

1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA

1School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Quito, Ecuador 2University of Montpellier, France3Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, USA

EPN