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Page 1: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Performance Evaluation Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple of AURAMS for Multiple

CasesCasesMichael Moran, Véronique Bouchet, Wanmin Gong, Paul Makar, Sophie

Cousineau, Louis-Philippe Crevier, Ashu Dastoor, Sunling Gong, Sylvain

Ménard, and Balbir Pabla

Meteorological Service of CanadaToronto, Ontario and Montreal,

Quebec

Page 2: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Talk OutlineTalk Outline•What Is An AURAMS?•Case Studies & AQ Data Sources•Some Operational Evaluation Results•Some Diagnostic Evaluation Results •Some Real-Time Evaluation Results•Summary and Next Steps

Page 3: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

AURAMS Is “AURAMS Is “AA UUnified nified RRegional egional AAir-quality ir-quality MModelling odelling SSystem”ystem”

• Episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system

• “Unified’ in sense that it considers multiple air pollutants and can be applied to multiple AQ issues (e.g., PM, acid deposition, tropospheric O3)

• Consists of 3 main components: regional emissions processing system; nonhydrostatic global meteorological model; “off-line” sectional PM regional air-quality

model• Current PM resolution: 12 size bins (0.01-40.96

m) and 9 chemical components (SO4=, NO3

-, NH4+,

BC, pOC, sOC, CM, SS, H2O)

Page 4: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Canadian Emissions Processing System (CEPS)

point mobile area biogenics

GEM(prognostic meteorological

model)

Population dataEconometric data

Land-use data

Geophysical data

National Emission Inventories

(Cdn, U.S.)

Meteorological observations

(OA)

PM2.5, PM10 Concentration Fields

Regional PM Model (CHRONOS+ADOM+CAM+new)Advection/diffusion (of 29 gaseous and 9x12 aerosol tracers) , emission (including gaseous precursors and size-segregated and chemically-resolved PM), dry deposition of gaseous tracer, coupled gaseous, aqueous-phase, aerosol/heterogeneous chemistry, secondary organic aerosol formation, aerosol microphysics (nucleation, condensation/evaporation, coagulation, CCN activation), size-dependent scavenging/wet deposition, size-dependent dry deposition of aerosols, gravitational settling/sedimentation.

Page 5: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Model CharacteristicsModel Feature CMAQ AURAMSMet Driver MM5 or ETA GEM

Map Projection Lambert conformal Polar stereographic

Gas-Phase Chem CB4, RADM2, SAPRC ADOM-II

PM Size Distribution Modal (3 modes) Sectional (12 bins)

PM Composition 8 components 9 (including SS)

PM Processes emissions, nucleation, condensation,coagulation, sedimentation, cloud processing

Aqueous-Phase Chem RADM? ADOM

Heterogeneous Chem MARS, ISORROPIA ISORROPIA, HETV

Page 6: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

AURAMS Selected Evaluation Periods

Period CommentsAug. 1-6, 1988 EMEFS field experiment

July 7-15, 1995 NARSTO-NE field experiment

Feb. 4-15, 1998 Winter episode in SE Canada

Aug. 25-31, 2001 Pacific2001 field experiment

July 1, 2004 onward Experimental real-time run

Page 7: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

AURAMS Evaluation Period Data Sets

Period AQ Data SetsAug. 1-6, 1988 EMEFS field data

July 7-15, 1995 IMPROVE, NAPS, CAAMP, GAViM

Feb. 4-15, 1998 IMPROVE, NAPS, GAViM

Aug. 25-31, 2001 IMPROVE, NAPS, field data

July 1, 2004 onward AIRNOW O3 and PM2.5

Page 8: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Western & Eastern AURAMS Western & Eastern AURAMS DomainsDomains

Western Domain•148 x 124 x 29 •Δx=21 km

Eastern Domain•85 x 105 x 29 •Δx=42 km

PM2.5 SO4 O3

Page 9: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Ground-Level O3, 1700 EDT, July 14th 1995

Coloured Station Circles Superimposed

On ContouredGridded Model Field,Same Colour Scheme

Page 10: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Hourly O3, All Stations, July 12-15, 1995

Max. Observed: ~185 ppb

Max. Predicted: ~150 ppb

Page 11: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

24-Hour PM2.5 Species: July 8-16, 1995

PM2.5 SO4

NH4 NO3

NAPS Network,g m-3 @STP1-in-6

Page 12: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

PM2.5 & O3 Time Series, Feb. 7–14, 1998

PM2.5 PM2.5

PM2.5 O3

Page 13: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Hourly O3 Hourly PM2.5

Evaluation of Hourly O3 and PM2.5 Predictions, Feb. 7-14, 1998

Page 14: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

24-Hour PM2.5 Species: Feb. 7-14, 1998

PM2.5

NH4

SO4

NO3

NAPS Network,g m-3 @STP1-in-6

Page 15: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Satellite vs. GEM-Modelled Cloud Field

Cloud Fraction, 3085 m AGL

Page 16: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

precip . S O4= (um ol/L)

0.0 to 0 .1 0.1 to 10.0 10.0 to 20.0 20.0 to 30.0 30.0 to 60.0 60.0 to 120.0 120.0 to 350.0

M odelled O bserved

0800 July 31 - 0800 August 6 (ED T)

Six-Day Precip-Weighted SOSix-Day Precip-Weighted SO44==

Conc. Conc. In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988)In Precip (July 31-Aug. 5, 1988)

Modelled Observed

Page 17: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – AURAMS Diagnostic Evaluation – Pacific2001Pacific2001

Page 18: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Note: Red stations are less than 250 km from Pacific coast .Blue stations > 250 km from Pacific coast.

Daily Speciated PM Comparison,Aug. 25-31, 2001

(IMPROVE, CAPMoN, NAPS)

PM2.5

SO4

PMtot SO4

PM2.5 NO3

PMtot NO3

PMtot NH4

PM2.5 EC

Page 19: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Particle Size and SpeciationAMS data courtesy of Hacene Boudries, Aerodyne

Similar range and size distributionShort duration peaks in model lower than measurements

p-SO4

Pacific2001 p-SOPacific2001 p-SO44 AMS Time-Size Cross AMS Time-Size Cross SectionSection

Page 20: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Langley, Aug. 29, 2001

Lidar data courtesyKevin Strawbridge, MSC

AURAMS captures the nighttime layer aloft detected by the lidar

Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross Pacific2001 Lidar Time-Height Cross SectionSection

Page 21: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (1)

Obs O - MModel

• Based on AIRNOW data feed• Summer 2004 for O3 and PM2.5

Page 22: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Same-Day Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts (2)

Page 23: A ir Quality Research Branch Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Environnement Canada Performance Evaluation of AURAMS for Multiple Cases Michael.

Environment EnvironnementCanada Canada

Air Quality Research BranchMeteorological Service of Canada

Summary and Next Steps

• AURAMS is an episodic, regional, size-resolved, chemically-characterized PM modelling system that includes a sectional PM CTM

• Operational, diagnostic, and real-time performance evaluations have all provided useful insights

• Older cases provide point of comparison with other models (e.g., ADOM, RADM) while newer cases provide richer PM and PM precursor data sets for multi-pollutant evaluations

• Additional cases (e.g., Eastern Supersite 2001/02 period, ICARTT/NEAQS-2K4 period), longer simulations, more fields (e.g., precip chemistry), more model intercomparisons are being pursued