1 T 11720 2015 ISSN:22414878 , . . 1,243 ()-2015. -189 () . , -. ,, 755 ( -923 -119 ) 800 ( -919 -119 ). .,--963(7,794 8,757 ). . -731 (7,745 8,477) -112 (238 350 ).,- , . . () ( , , , ). 2015. EurobankErgasias.. (Eurobank) . .Eurobank , . , . Eurobank. Eurobank. ( ) , , , . ,, Eurobank . ,,.. . ., ,.. , .: Bloomberg:(5) . . sgogos@eurobank.gr okosma@eurobank.gr o arkonstantopoulou@eurobank.gr T 117, 20 2015 2 1,243() -2015. -189 () . 2015; ; : .1 443 -923(443 1,366).2, 367-919 (3671,286).3 . , -935,3,682 4,617. -935 (-479 ) , , ( -332 ). , -., .; 1,243() -168 , 1 ., ()( ) (). 2 , 2014, -392(443 835 ).3 76. (76., -4)., ,. 1,432 . -119 (-189-70). , . ,, 755(-923-119) 800 ( -919 -119 ). .,- -963 (7,794 8,757 )., ; . -731 (7,745 8,477 ) -112 (238 350 ).4 , - , . . 2015. (.) 0,1%.5 , -(5,4%), (3,6%), (8,8%) (6%).2014,2013, 20122011 -3,3%,-3,1%,-3,9% -3,0% ( 1). 4 , (,,, , , ). 591.5..:http://www.statistics.gr/portal/page/portal/ESYE/BUCKET/A0503/PressReleases/A0503_DKT21_DT_MM_01_2015_01_P_GR.pdf T 117, 20 2015 3 1: ( ) 16%12%8%4%0%4%8%0204060801001201111111112121212131313131414141415(2010=100),(%),:()(..),()Eurobank Research. () 2015. (Eurostat),2015 2014, 0,1% .6,, 1,2% 1,5% E. (2,9%), (2,7%),(2,5%), (1,4%) (0,7%). , E (2,9%), (2,3%), (1,8%),(1,3%) (1,2%). (8,8%),(8,1%) (7,8%) (-4,9%), (-4,2%) (-3,5%). 4 2014. (Eurostat)17 2015 42014.7, 3 2014 (0,7%), (-1,4%), (-0,6%),(-0,3%),(-0,2%) (-0,1%).,4 20142,4%, (0,9%) (1,0%). 6 Eurostat:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6741651/4-12032015-AP-EN.pdf/505f9fd2-050d-45cb-9f47-be0f7e7ccc84 7 Eurostat:http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/6748023/2-17032015-AP-EN.pdf/202ca081-b5b4-41d1-adcb-7d88fc5cd244 () . , : 8 : . . . , , . . . , , ( offshore). , () . . . , . . . , 8 : http://www.oecd.org/greece/oecd-and-greece-to-cooperate-on-reforms-needed-to-ensure-inclusive-growth.htmT 117, 20 2015 4 .9 (), 50% ( ) 4% 10%.10, () , , .11 ,, 2013 4,3%,5,7%,7% 9% .12 9: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art01_eb201502.en.pdf?9f2df1fed8e311f708949786293121f4.pdf 10: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13155.pdf 11: http://ec.europa.eu/about/taskforcegreece/pdf/tfgr/macro_narrative_report_en.pdf 12: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2014/pdf/ee5_en.pdf T 117, 20 2015 5 1: : , (%), . . yoy%, . . qoq% 4 (2014) 1,15% (1,97%, 2014q3). % -0,38% (0,70%, 2014q3). . (, %) : 1996q4 2014q4 : : 0,92% : 2,59% : 7,24% (2003q4) : -10,37% (2011q1) : = : 27/2/2015 . .: 15/5/2015 : 1996q4-2014q4: 2008q22014q4 : ( )(2014)26,03%(25,90%,11/2014) -1,27(-1,82,11/2014). 3,506.(3,488.,12/2013) 1,233 . (1,309., 12/2013). : 6/2005 - 12/2014 : : 15,64% : 11,67% : 27,96% (9/2013) : 7,27% (5/2008) : = , = , = , = . . : 5/3/2015 . .: 9/4/2015 : 6/200512/2014: 4/200812/2014 : (), (%) (2015) (%) -1,91% (-2,76%, 1/2015) -1,59% (-1,50%, 1/2015). , (, %) : 9/1997 - 2/2015 : : 2,67% : 3,13% : 5,66% (9/2010) : -2,86% (11/2013) : = : 10/3/2015 . .: 9/4/2015 : 9/19972/2015: 6/20082/2015 : () (..), () Eurobank Research. T 117, 20 2015 6 2: ( ) : 1996q4-2014q4: 2008q22014q4: 27/2/2015 () 2014q4 1,70%(2014q3: 3,30%, 2013q4: 2,80%). ,% (.), 73,07%(2014q3:71,83, 2013q4: 72,87%). () 2014q4 -2,63%(2014q3:-3,55%, 2013q4: -3,64%). ,% (.), 19,76%(2014q3:19,57%, 2013q4: 19,92%). () 2014q4 17,95%(2014q3: 2,69%, 2013q4: -8,67%). ,% (.), 14,07%(2014q3:11,02%, 2013q4: 11,49%). () 2014q4 10,84% (2014q3:6,91%,2013q4:-5,04%). ,% (.), 32,82%(2014q3:32,87%, 2013q4: 30,22%). (, ) 2014q4 17,26%(2014q3:3,05%, 2013q4: -7,53%). ,% (.), 36,91%(2014q3:34,31%, 2013q4: 32,77%). : () (..), () Eurobank Research. : 29/5/2015 T 117, 20 2015 7 3: ( ) (4/2004-12/2014) (4/2004-12/2014): 20/2/2015 : (, , ) 1,66 (11/2014:2,28 12/2013: 1,09). -17,98 (11/2014:-18,95 12/2013: -17,23). : (, ) 19,80 (11/2014:19,77 12/2013: 16,98). 11,37 (11/2014:11,42 12/2013: 10,32). : ( , ) -2,89 (11/2014:-2,76 12/2013: -3,13). , -2,61 (11/2014:-2,50 12/2013: -2,88). : ( ) 2,73 (11/2014:3,42 12/2013: 4,47). 2,44 (11/2014:3,10 12/2013: 3,98). : () (), () Eurobank Research. : 23/3/2015 T 117, 20 2015 8 4: : 4/2002-1/2015: 5/20081/2015: 26/2/2015 () (2015) 236,87(12/2014: 235,201/2014: 237,00 ). -0,62%(12/2014:-1,73% 1/2014: -4,94%). () (2015) 23,14(12/2014: 23,561/2014: 20,76 ). 9,42%(12/2014:8,01% 1/2014: -17,75%). () (2015) 102,88 (12/2014:101,35 1/2014: 102,25 ). -0,05%(12/2014:-1,79% 1/2014: -3,34%). () (2015) 97,19 (12/2014:96,70 1/2014:100,30 ). -2,86%(12/2014:-3,71% 1/2014: -4,69%). : () (), () Eurobank Research. : +1 T 117, 20 2015 9 5: : 4/2002-1/2015: 5/20081/2015: 26/2/2015 () (2015) ( , ) ( ) 194,66 (12/2014:207,89 1/2014:209,67 ). -7,16%(12/2014:-2,33% 1/2014: -5,15%). () (2015) () 12,96(12/2014: 12,931/2014: 13,61 ). -9,91%(12/2014:-6,04% 1/2014: -13,00%). () (2015) () (, ) 22,58 (12/2014:26,05 1/2014: 26,61 ). -15,16%(12/2014:-7,82% 1/2014: 5,72%). () (2015) () 125,46(12/2014: 134,241/2014: 134,41 ). -6,66%(12/2014:-0,56% 1/2014: -1,02%). : () (), () Eurobank Research. : +1 T 117, 20 2015 10 6: , : 8/1997-2/2015: 6/20082/2015: 26/2/2015 (2015) (98,2) 2,9 3,1 . (: 40%) (2015) (-9,2 ) -1,3 -2,1 . (: 30%) (2015) (4,4) -4,6 -0,1 . (: 20%) (2015) (-30,6 ) 18,7 32,5 . (: 5%) (2015) (-3,9 ) -2,9 4,5 . (: 5%) (2015) (-31,9 ) -2,1 -8,7 . : (European Commission) : 30/3/2015 T 117, 20 2015 11 :20/3/2015. x. .. q 1.,6. (yoy,%) 1.15% 2014q4 1.97% 2014q3 3.11% 2013q4 4.40% 2012q4 10.02% 2011q4. (qoq,%) 0.38% 0.70% 0.18% 0.99% 3.00%. y 186.54 2014 185.11 2013 192.61 2012 206.16 2011 226.21 2010 m % 26.03% 14 25.90% 14 27.30% 13 26.42% 12 21.65% 11. (yoy,%) 1.91% 15 2.76% 15 0.86% 14 0.14% 13 1.67% 12...() q 1.,6. (yoy,%) 1.70% 2014q4 3.30% 2014q3 2.80% 2013q4 6.88% 2012q4 10.87% 2011q4. 2.63% 3.55% 3.64% 0.38% 5.92%.() 17.95% 2.69% 8.67% 12.99% 23.70%.() 10.84% 6.91% 5.04% 5.32% 5.33%.() 17.26% 3.05% 7.53% 3.68% 14.63%.() y 4.,6. (yoy,%) 0.10% 2013 1.40% 2012 2.10% 2011 2.80% 2010 3.90% 2009 7.00% 3.30% 0.20% 0.30% 7.40% m 1.,6. (yoy,) 17.97 14 44.04 14 81.97 13 265.62 12 402.10 11 76.05 103.09 27.96 221.68 326.07 58.08 59.05 54.00 43.95 76.03 0.25 1.55 13.04 37.67 37.19 q 2.,6. (yoy,%) 5.83% 2014q4 7.12% 2014q3 9.59% 2013q4 12.84% 2012q4 6.60% 2011q4() m 1.,6. 6.4% 14 30.9% 14 29.6% 13 40.0% 12 41.7% 11 m 1.,6. (yoy,%) 0.05% 15 3.22% 14 3.26% 14 3.09% 13 3.87% 12 3.62% 14 1.40% 14 6.73% 13 7.75% 12 10.98% 11 q 1.,6. (yoy,%) 0.69% 2014q4 1.18% 2014q3 13.79% 2013q4 5.92% 2012q4 20.47% 2011q4 22.12% 19.89% 8.40% 29.94% 12.00%(+++) 12m 2.,6. 1.66 14 2.28 14 1.09 13 4.62 12 20.63 11A. 17.98 18.15 17.23 19.62 27.23 7.55 7.88 7.70 10.22 11.13 2.17 2.10 1.48 1.04 3.26 8.26 8.17 8.05 8.36 12.84. 19.80 19.77 16.98 15.14 14.63 11.37 11.42 10.32 8.60 8.24 7.93 7.83 6.54 6.96 6.86 0.50 0.52 0.12 0.42 0.47. 2.89 2.76 3.13 1.57 8.59 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.27 0.28, 2.61 2.50 2.88 1.30 8.31. 2.73 3.42 4.47 1.43 0.56 2.44 3.10 3.98 1.41 0.77 0.29 0.32 0.49 0.02 0.21()% y 1.,6. % 12.2% 2013 8.6% 2012 10.1% 2011 11.1% 2010 15.20% 2009% 8.2% 3.6% 2.9% 5.2% % 174.9% 156.9% 171.3% 146.0% ()() 5.,6. 7.79 15 3.68 15 51.37 14 45.93 14 41.32 14() 8.76 4.62 55.28 47.05 42.60() 7.98 3.32 55.06 47.76 43.77() 8.83 3.33 56.04 49.58 44.17() 1.24 0.44 1.87 3.57 2.65() 1.41 1.37 4.94 2.88 3.54() 0.19 0.37 3.70 1.83 2.45() 0.07 1.29 0.76 2.53 1.57 2.,6. % 0.20% 10/9/14 0.10% 11/6/14 0.00% 13/11/14 0.00% 8/5/13 0.00% 11/7/12 0.05% 0.15% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 0.30% 0.40% 0.75% 1.00% 1.50%() m 2.,6. % 1.12% 15 1.15% 14 1.77% 14 2.81% 13 2.78% 12() 5.06% 5.03% 5.66% 5.88% 6.63%() 1.20% 1.30% 1.96% 2.94% 2.67%() 5.21% 5.23% 5.58% 5.78% 6.32% m 2.,6. (yoy,%) 0.62% 15 1.73% 14 4.94% 14 16.61% 13 5.57% 12 9.42% 8.01% 17.51% 50.69% 16.08% 0.05% 1.79% 3.34% 12.10% 1.43% 2.86% 3.71% 4.69% 6.52% 4.11% m 2.,6. (yoy,%) 7.16% 15 2.33% 14 5.15% 14 3.48% 13 17.32% 12 9.91% 6.04% 13.00% 69.96% 35.38% 39.36% 35.48% 25.70% 1.18% 4.35% 8.16% 3.92% 18.19% 3.49% 4.51% 12.90% 6.17% 0.41% 7.35% 29.39% 6.66% 0.56% 1.02% 4.49% 16.67% 17.73% 3.71% 0.75% 11.90% 25.36% 2.78% 3.50% 21.92% 13.28% 10.70%. m 3.,6. 98.2 15 95.3 15 95.1 14 87.1 13 78.3 12 9.2 7.9 7.1 12.5 23.6 4.4 9 4.5 22.5 30.6 30.6 49.3 63.1 71.4 83.5 3.9 1 8.4 33.1 38.7 31.9 29.8 23.2 46.7 56.212,,(3),(4)(),,(5)(),,,.A6::(1)y,qm,,(2)(yoy),(qoq),12m(5),(6)Eurobank(EurobankResearch).:(1)(..),(2)(),(3)(EuropeanCommission),(4)(Eurostat),T 117, 20 2015 12 Eurobank .., . 20 & 5, 10557 , +30.210.3337365, fax: +30.210.333.7687, e-mail: Research@eurobank.gr Eurobank http://www.eurobank.gr/research NewEurope: &: GlobalEconomic&MarketOutlook: :http://www.eurobank.gr/research twitter: http://twitter.com/Eurobank_Group & : : : : : ISSN:22414878