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- A14 2012 2012 - 201214 !N/IZ-AAAY b KOZH 20!2 ................................................................................................................15 ......................................................................................................................................................29 ......................................................................................................................................................33 1: ........................................................................................................................................................411.1. - ..................................43 2: ...................................................................................532.1. .........................................................552.2. ......................................................57 3: 2010-2012 ............................................873.1. ......................................................89 4: .......................................................................................................................1114.1. ............................1134.2. ...................................................................1184.3. ........................................................1304.4. ...........1384.5. ........................................................................................141 5: , .................................153 5.1. ...............................................................................................................................1555.2. .............................................................................156 5.3. ..........................................................................158 5.4. ..........................1605.5. ...........1635.6. ( ) ..............................................................................................166!N/IZ-AAAY 6 KOZH 20!25.6.1. ...........................................................................................................................1665.6.2. ..........................................................................................................1715.6.2.1. (, 2011) ..................................................................................................................1715.6.2.2. (, 2011) ..........................................................................................................1725.6.2.3. ..............1745.6.3. ............................1745.6.3.1. .............................................................................................1755.6.3.2. () .................................................................................................176 5.6.3.2.1. .................................................................1765.6.3.2.2. ................177 5.6.3.2.3. ............................................................................................1785.6.3.2.4. Rgie des Eaux de Grenoble .....................................1795.6.3.2.5. ..................................................................................................................................1795.6.3.2.6. ...........................................................................................1805.6.3.2.7. ...................................181 5.6.4. (2010) .................................................................................................................1825.6.4.1. .................................................................1825.6.4.2. ............................................................................................................................1825.6.4.3. ....................................................................................................................................1835.6.4.4. Eau de Paris .....................................................................................................................1845.6.4.5. Eau de Paris .................................................1855.6.4.6. Eau de Paris................................1885.6.5. () ........................................................................................................................1895.6.5.1. ..................................................1895.6.5.2. ..........1905.6.5.3. : ; ........192!N/IZ-AAAY 7 KOZH 20!25.6.6. ..........................1935.6.6.1.Gramastetten () ..........................................................................................1935.6.6.2.Ecopower () ........................................................................................................1935.6.6.3. (/) .....................................................1955.6.7. ..........................................................................................................1965.6.7.1. 136 ................1975.6.7.2. () ....................................................................................................................................1975.6.8. ..................................................................................................................198 6: ...........................................................................................................2016.1. .......................2036.2. ......................................................................................................................................2176.2.1. ...................................................................................................2186.2.2. 2012 .....................................................................2216.2.3. 1984-2012 ................................................................................................................................226 7: ...........................................235 7.1. ...............................................................................................................................2377.2. ..............................2387.3. ..................2437.4. .................................2547.5. .....................2597.6. (PSI+) 2807.6.1. ...........2817.6.2. (PSI+) .......................................................................2837.6.3. ....................................................................................2867.6.4. ..............................................288!N/IZ-AAAY 8 KOZH 20!2 8: ....................................................................................................2938.1. ..................................................................................................................................295 8.2. 2008-2012 ...........................................................3048.3. ...............................................................................................................................3098.4. & -27 ..................................................3118.4.1. ...............................................................................................3118.4.2. ............................................................................313 8.4.3. 24 ........................................................................................................3148.4.4. 25 .....................3168.4.5. ..-27 .............318 9: ........................................................................3279.1. ...............................................................................................................................3299.2. .................................................................................3319.3. .................................................................3349.4. ..........................................................................................3379.5. ..................................................................................................3389.6. ......................................................................................................................3619.7. (Flexicurity) : - ........................................................................................................................................366 10: ...................................................................37510.1. ...............................................................................................................................37710.2. ................................37710.3. , .................................................................................................38310.4. ...............................................................................................................................38810.5.- ....................................................................................395!N/IZ-AAAY 9 KOZH 20!2 11: ........................................................................39711.1. . 3996/2011 .................................................................................39911.1.1. () ...................................400 11.1.2. ...............................................................40211.1.3. , ...............................................................................................................................40211.1.4. .......................................................................403 11.1.5. ..................................................................................406 11.1.6. .......................................40711.2. ..................................................41011.3. ...........414 ........................................................................................................................................................................417.......................................................................................................................................419 .............................................................................................................................................421 ........................................................................................................................437E 1: ( 2009-2011 2012) .............................220 2: 1984-2012 ............................................................................................................................................................232 3: ........240 4: ,( ) .................................................................................244 5: 2005 2011, , 2005 ..............................................................................................254 6: ( ) ...........................255!N/IZ-AAAY !0 KOZH 20!2 7: 2005 2011, , 2005 .......................................................256 8. ..................................................................................264 9: ...............................................................................266 10: 2012 .......267 11: ( . ) ...................................271 12: PSI ( ) ...............................................................288 13. , .............305 14. , , 2008 2012 .....306 15. , 2008 - 2012 ..............................................................308 16: .........................................310 17: 2012 -27 ..................................................................................................................................................312 18: 2008-2012 -27 .............................................................................................................313 19: 29 2008-2012 2008-2012 -27 .............315 20: 25 25 2008-2012 -27 ...........317 21: -27 ..............323 22: .................341 23: ................................362 24: .................................................................................363 25: ..................................................................364 26: ....................................................................................................................................................365 27: (. ...) 2011 ..................................................................................................................365 28: () 65 , 2008..................379 29: () 65 , 2008..................380 30: (prevalence rates) (%) ( ) , , 2009 . ..........................................382!N/IZ-AAAY !! KOZH 20!2 31: (%) (1980-2007) .............................................................................................................................384 32: ( 2010) .................385 33: (1999-2010) ...................................................................................................386 34: .....................................393 35: 2012 ............408E 1: .......................................................................................................................................................56 2: ...................................................................................................................57 3: 2000 ...............................................................58 4: 2005 35 .........59 5: , 1990-2012 ........60 6: ,1961-2012 .....................................................................................................................................................61 7: 35 .............62 8: ................................................................................64 9: ( % ) .....................65 10: , 1983-2011 .........66 11: .................................67 12: 68 13: ....................................70 14: ........................................73 15: ,2000-2011 .....................................................................................................................................................75 16: , ( ) ................................................................................................................80 17: ( ) 1983-2012 .............................82 18: , 1990-2012 ......90!N/IZ-AAAY !2 KOZH 20!2 19: , 1991-2012 ...............................................................................................................92 20: 35 , 1993-2012 .....................................................................................................................................................94 21: 35 , 1995-2012 .................................................................................................................................95 22: , 1990-2012 .....................................................................................................................................................96 23: , , , 1990-2012 .........................97 24: , , 2005, 1995-2012 ....................................................................................98 25: , 1983-2012 .......99 26: , 1983-2012 ..................................................................... 100 27: / , 1983-2012 .............................................................. 101 28: , 2005, 1990-2012 ................................................................................................................................. 103 29: , 2005, 1990-2012 ................................................................................................................................. 104 30: , 1996-2012............................................................................................................. 105 31: , 1995-2012 .................................................................... 106 32: ,1990-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 107 33: / ,1987-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 108 34: , 1989-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 109 35: , 1995, 1995-2012, % 1995=100 ................................................................................................................. 204 36: % -15, . % -15, 1991-2012 ................................................................................................................... 205!N/IZ-AAAY !3 KOZH 20!2 37 35 , ,1996-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 207 38: , , 1996-2012 .............................................................................................. 208 39: (%), 1983-2012 ................................................................................................................................... 209 40: (%), 1983-2011, 2010 2011 .......................................................................................................................................... 210 41: 35 , ,1995-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 211 42: , , 2011 ..........................213 43 , , =100, 2011 ....................................................... 214 44: , , 2011 ............................................................................................................................................................... 215 45: , , =100, 2011 ........................................................................................... 216 46: . 2012 ( 12 ) .......................................224 47: - 2012 ( - ) ................................................. 224 48: . () - 2012 .....................................225 49: . 2012 ( - ) .......................................225 50: (1984-2012) ........................................................................................................ 226 51: (1984=100) ....................................................................................................................................228 52: .................................................................... 242 53: , 2009-2010-2011 .................................................................................................................................. 243!N/IZ-AAAY !4 KOZH 20!2 54: , , 2010-2011 ............245 55: , -27 -17 .............................246 56: , , 2010-2011 ........................247 57: , -27 -17 ........................................... 247 58: , ,2010-2011-2012 .................................................................................................................................. 249 59: , -27 -17 ..................................249 1: , , 2008-2012 ....................................................................................................................... 251 60: , 2000-2012, -17 - - ................................................................................................................................................... 252 61: , 2000-2012, -17 - .................253 62: ............................................................................................................ 258 63: 2011, ( . ) .....................................268 64: ( 2011) ............................270 65: ............................................................. 270 66: 31/12/2011 ( . ) .................................................................................................. 272 67: .................................................................................... 277 68: , PSI ( . ) ................................................................................ 278 69:Spreads 10 ............................................................................................................................................ 282 70: , 1990-2012............................................................................................ 296 71: , 1995-2012 ...................297 72: , % ,1990-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 298 73: ,1995-2011 ................................................................................................................................................. 299 74: , % , 2004-2012 ......................300 75:, , ,1990-2012 ................................................................................................................................................. 301 76:, , 1990-2012 ..................... 302!N/IZ-AAAY !b KOZH 20!2 (2) 2012-2015 6,5 2011 22 2012-2015 (11,7 2013-2014), - , - , ( ) . , ,, , , , , . - 4 2015, 2 (1,5 13 14 500 . 2010 1.400 ). (E, 2012) E, 2012) ,2012) 2011 25,3% -. , 37,8% (2001-2011) 4 . , - 35,6% 2011 34,3% 2000, - 31,7% 2011 33,3% 2000. 12% , 37,8% 2011 35,3% 2000, 2011 25,4% 27,5% 2000. 2012 2015 (.. - ), -1, 2( !N/IZ-AAAY !6 KOZH 20!21) , . , 1 2012, 2014. , , (17 2011, 15 2012, 11,5 2013) 150% 2012 - 2020 409 (200% ), ( 2011, INE 2011) 120% ; 175 ( 1, 110 , 2, 65 ) - 2012. , 2013 80 120 . , . (livier Blanchard, 2011) , . .,,-, , - . , -, , 2/3- . , , 28 - (17,5 . ) . /. 22% ,- ( 751 586 !N/IZ-AAAY !7 KOZH 20!2,2005)3 ( 461 356 ). , , 0,27 , 0,28 - 0,38 . -3,3, , . , 4 , , , , -. , , - , . - , , - , , ., - , 2012 (-7%, -8%) -, . , 2003 1970. , , ,- . , - 2012 -(, , , , ,,)., !N/IZ-AAAY !8 KOZH 20!2 - 50% 2008. . , - , , . , 2012, - 2010-2012 , , , - , ,-, ,,, . 2012, , , , -, , - . (wage led growth), , :1. , , , , --, -. , -,, ,, , , , . !N/IZ-AAAY !9 KOZH 20!22.(, (11,1%) , , , , . - (-) , , , ( , ). 3. - (2012) , ,(.,,,) . (2008-2012) - , , , . 4. , - - , 2010-2011 0,74 ( 1995-2009) ., 4/5 , . 5. 2009-2012, 2010-2012, , - . 2010-2012 !N/IZ-AAAY 20 KOZH 20!2 (-25% ) 2000., , 1990. 6.2009-201113,7% 2008 16,7% 2007. 2012, 2007, 2012 22% , - 1995-2007. 7. 2010-2011 8,6% ,10,4%. 2% - . 8. - . 15% 2001 19,7% 2012 . -,17,7% 2011 24% 2012. 9.2009-2011( ) 13,2%. , 2012 - 2012 20% 2009. 10. 2005-2008 6% , (2001-2004 1997-2000) 12% . 2008,, , , 2008-2011, 5,6%. 2011 2003. 11. 201020116,4% 2009, 1,9%. , ,, !N/IZ-AAAY 2! KOZH 20!2 4,5%. 2012, (8% ) ( , , ). 12. (-) , 2010-2011, 22,8%. , 19 .2012, 33.., . 13. 2009 92% , 2011 82% . -, 108% 2009 107% 2011 128% 2009, 120% 2011.14. ,,- 2008, 2009-2011 2012. 2012, 1997. 15. 2004. 2004 2007, ,. , 2003 2007 16%. 2008 2009-2012, . -6% . . :, . 16. () 4,9% 2009-2010 ( ) 7,1% 2011 5,7% 2012. , 2009-2012, - 18,8%, ( - ) 2012 2003. !N/IZ-AAAY 22 KOZH 20!217. 4,8%2009, . , . - 2010 7,2% 2010 9,1% 2011, 2011 2010-2011 16,9%. 2012 11%. 18. 200920%,, 2008. , 2010-2011 - 3,9%. , , 36% 2009-2012. - -14% 2008 -6% 2012. 19. 7,5% 2010 6,1% 2011, 2012 7,6%. , 1995-2009 , 2012, . 20. 2009, -, 15 - . , 2012 .-15 68,5%, , 1993. 21. 19952009,-, . -..-1591%2003 2009. 2010 - ..-15 2012 91%86%. . 22. 2010-2012,, !N/IZ-AAAY 23 KOZH 20!2 , - . , 2010-2012 . 23. 2009 90,1% 15 , 2011 85,8%. , 12,6 , 5,0 - 11,2 .24. , .25. (-), 1983 1993 1993-2008 63% . 2010-2012. 26. - 1995-2009, 35 4%. (23%), 19% - , 4% - .27. 1995-2010 , , - . - 2000-2009 , . 28. 201125.470 33.687 , 36.032 , 47.286 44.659 . 2012, !N/IZ-AAAY 24 KOZH 20!2 - . 2013 , . 29. 20% ( 100 , 80 ). (75 ), . , , . 30. -, 22% 2012 49% ( 60% - 2 ) --(,,,,) .31. - . ,(-,,) - , . 32. , , -, , - , , ( , , , , ) . !N/IZ-AAAY 2b KOZH 20!233. , . , , , - , - , - , . 34. ( )( ), -. 35. , , - . - 2012, - ( ) (PSI). 36. 165% 2011,,163,2% 2012PSI, 167,3 % 2013 . !N/IZ-AAAY 26 KOZH 20!2 2014 153,1 % 2015116,5%2020., PSI, , .- PSI 53% 70%, ( 2023-2042) . -700-800. PSI120-160. .37. , . , 1% 105,5 % 2020, ( 1% ) 129% 2020.38. 2010 628.000 . 2011 -877.0002012-952.000,/- 1.200.000 (24%). 2008 2009 4,8 . . , 1:1, . 39. 2009-2012 , . .40. - -27-. (,,,) . (, ,,) !N/IZ-AAAY 27 KOZH 20!2 , -. (, , , , ,,,,) (-, , ) . (,,,,, ,,,,) .41. (-),-(), .,- :) , ) - , ) ) .42.(flexicutify), - 1990, , , , - . 43. , - . -. . - .!N/IZ-AAAY 28 KOZH 20!244. (2009-2012) , - , - . ,-., . - . 45. .3996/2011 2009 (2012) - -, (, , ) ., - , - - - ()(-)(,- .)!N/IZ-AAAY 29 KOZH 20!2 2012 , (2008-2012) -- , ,,, . , - ( ), ( , ) - , .2008 . 2011 (. Pisani Ferry, 2012). . Pisani Ferry, 2012). . Pisani Ferry, 2012). Pisani Ferry, 2012). Ferry, 2012). Ferry, 2012). , 2012). 21 , . -,. , - , , . , - , , -(12),, , (1.200.000 2012) , -!N/IZ-AAAY 30 KOZH 20!2.,, ,, . - , , ., , , , , . , ,- . , ,,-. - , ,. -, , - . , ()- ( ). ,, ,, , - , . - (.., , ...) ( 1 2),, (2009-2012) , . -!N/IZ-AAAY 3! KOZH 20!2 , , , , , . , . , ,- - - , ., - , , (. range, ediapart, . range, ediapart, . range, ediapart, range, ediapart, , ediapart, ediapart, , 23/5/2012):) , ) ,)- , ) , ) , , ) ., , 2012, - , - - , , ,- , - ., - , - , , - , !N/IZ-AAAY 32 KOZH 20!2 , , , - , . / !N/IZ-AAAY 33 KOZH 20!2(11,1%,17,5 . ) 2012 - -, , 2009-2011, , . -2012, , . , -,,, , , , - , - . , 2009-2012, -, .,22% 2009-2012,23%(2008)30% (2012) ( 2001 50% ), 7,8% 2008 20% (1 . ) ( 2011) 2012, 23%-24% . 1.200.000 ( 1929 25% 2001 30%). , - - , . , , . , . -, (.P. Fitoussi, 2012). .P. Fitoussi, 2012). .P. Fitoussi, 2012). P. Fitoussi, 2012). . Fitoussi, 2012). Fitoussi, 2012). , 2012). , ( ) (2/3/12) !N/IZ-AAAY 34 KOZH 20!2 , - . - , , (2012) - ; (. Feldstein, 2012). , Feldstein, 2012). , , 2012). , -, - . , - -, , , - , - , . , , . -,,, ( 29/6/2012).- - ., , , , ., , , ( ) -,,-, , , !N/IZ-AAAY 3b KOZH 20!2., - , , , - 60.000 540.000 2008. (22%), , , - , - , , ,, , . ( -2012)(,) -, (, , ) , 13 14 - . -, 2019 50%. 2009 92% 2011 - 82%, 108% 2009 107% 2011 128% 2009 120% 2011 (Eurostat, 2012). , Eurostat, 2012). , , 2012). , , , ,, , -. , -, . , , . - !N/IZ-AAAY 36 KOZH 20!2 , - . , ,,,, , . - , , , -., ,, , , - -,, . , , , (). 1 120 , , (1997) 11,1%. - - - , , - - . , , , , . -; !N/IZ-AAAY 37 KOZH 20!2, - - . , , , , - ( ) . , - , , - . , - , (P. rugman, 2012). - P. rugman, 2012). - . rugman, 2012). - rugman, 2012). - , 2012). -, , - - . (, (11,1% 17,5 . ) , ) - , . ,- - , - , -. , - , , , , , , . , , !N/IZ-AAAY 38 KOZH 20!2 ,- , . , -- , - -, -, .2012, 1 - - . , -, . , , : - - .2010-2012, - . ( ,,, , ) 2010-2012 . . 202 ,./-,.,.,.-,.,.,.,.,.,.,.-,.,.,...!N/IZ-AAAY 39 KOZH 20!2 , - - () . - ., - . - , , , PSI - . , 2008-2012 - ..-27. - , 1 2. ( -)- (). . 3996/11 , , , - . , .. . / / 1 !N/IZ-AAAY 43 KOZH 20!2 1.1. - ,, , - , - . , - - . , , - - , , , ,, , , , . , , , 2010, , . , - -- , , . , , , - . , , ., (, (11,1%) ,) , !N/IZ-AAAY 44 KOZH 20!2 . - ,- - , - , . - - , , , , ,,- , . -, , - , , -. , , - -, - , . , , -., ,, .- - , ,. !N/IZ-AAAY 4b KOZH 20!2 ( ) -().,- , , - . / - . 2 4 2012 . , , . : , , , . , . , , .,,-., , . , : , , - . ,, , - -!N/IZ-AAAY 46 KOZH 20!2. , ., ( -), . , - , . , . , , , ,- . , , . , , ,, . , -, . , ., , . , ( - - ) 2011 55% 85% 27. - ( ) . !N/IZ-AAAY 47 KOZH 20!2 , - , . - . , . . - -,, . , , , . -, . . , ( ), . - - , ( -). , , . , (, -, , , ). , ( -), - . , - . -:, -- ( ). !N/IZ-AAAY 48 KOZH 20!22:- ,, , , . , . , - -, ( - ), , -, . 4, ( ), , , . , , , , .,-( ), -, , , ( , ).-, , , . -!N/IZ-AAAY 49 KOZH 20!2, , - , , , , . , : , , , . , , , . , . , 2008, . , , - . - , , , -, , ( ), ., - . , , - (.. - ). , . , , - ., - !N/IZ-AAAY b0 KOZH 20!2 . , , -, . , , . - , ( - ) . , , . , - , , , . , - , - . , ( ),- , . , , ,, . , , - -(). , ( ). !N/IZ-AAAY b! KOZH 20!2 , , , . ,, ,( ) : , -,. , - , 2008, . , . - - ., , , , , -.,, () ,. , 2, - -, 2010-2011, - . , , - , -- . , (, !N/IZ-AAAY b2 KOZH 20!2 ), . , , 4, . 2 !N/IZ-AAAY bb KOZH 20!2 2.1. , , - , (. 3 ), -, , , - .-, , , . (2008-2012) - (market-based adjustment), , - (policy-based adjustment) - , .:- , . 2010-2011, , 0,74 -.-, . , 1, 1995-2009. , . , . , , , ,, (. 3). !N/IZ-AAAY b6 KOZH 20!2 1 -6-4-2024681995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011% tou ER tou nopsIOvtoq stouq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. , 2, 4,7 - . , 4/5 -, . - - . , , . ,,, , .,, .!N/IZ-AAAY b7 KOZH 20!2 2 -6-4-2024681995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.% tou ER tou nopsIOvtoq stouq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.2.2. 2009-2012, 2010-2012 , . 3, 2010-2012 ( -25%) - 2000. , 1990. !N/IZ-AAAY b8 KOZH 20!2 3 200002550751001251501752002252501992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012toskoto00uptosupRqyq: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokq Eni1ponq.-23,9%:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. . 35 , 35 , 17,0%2009-2011 ( 4) 1995. , 4, 1995-2009 , 35 . - . , 4, , , -,, .!N/IZ-AAAY b9 KOZH 20!2 4 2005 35 808590951001051101151201995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012stoc 2000=100Rqyq: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunotkq Enttponq.:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. , - . , - : , - .!N/IZ-AAAY 60 KOZH 20!2 5 , 19902012-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456781990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012-4.7-6.9-3.5-3.3-0.23.05.52.34.45.93.44.24.53.43.43.62.42.12.0-1.60.73.10.0Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.stpotsq % 0stooIsq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. , 5, 2009-2011 13,7% 2008 16,7% 2007. 2012, , , 2007, 201222%. (6) . , - .!N/IZ-AAAY 6! KOZH 20!2 6 ,19612012-12-9-6-3036912151961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY 62 KOZH 20!2 7 35 808590951001051101151201995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.stoq 2000=100-18,4%:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. 7, (2008-2012), 35 - , 20%. , -, 1995-2007. , -, : , - . ., -!N/IZ-AAAY 63 KOZH 20!2 . , . : 2010-2011, o -8,6%,- . , 8, 8,6% 10,4% . 2% . (2008-2011), - 12% 8%. . , ,., , (Rowthorn1981,Lavoie1992). , , 2008-2011, ( 8) ( 12).!N/IZ-AAAY 64 KOZH 20!2 8 -8-6-4-202461990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rqyq: Tpcuvo Epyo1iko Auvoiko EZYE koi Ameco Database. stpotsq % 0stooIsqAERApi0q onoooIoucvuv:AmecoDatabase. ( 9) . 2012, - , 19,7%. , , (- 2011 15% 17,7% - ( -, 2011, 22). !N/IZ-AAAY 6b KOZH 20!2 9 ( % )024681012141618201990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rpyp: Epsuvo Epyottkou Auvo0tkou EZYE.:. , 2009-2011, , , 15 64 ( , ). 2009-2011, 0,9%. - : , , , . 2009-2011, - .!N/IZ-AAAY 66 KOZH 20!2 10 , 19832011-3.0-2.5-2.0-1.5-1.0-0.500.51.01.52.02.53.0-7.0 -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0stpotsq % 0stooIsqspyottkouuvo0tkoustpotsq % 0stooIsq onooIpopq2009Rpyp: Epsuvo Epyottkou Auvo0tkou EZYE.2010201120092010 02011:., -, , , , , . ., , , -,-, ( ) . , -,. , -, - .!N/IZ-AAAY 67 KOZH 20!2 11 4050607080901001101201301401995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 201102.55.07.510.012.515.017.520.022.525.0Rpoy0ottksq0sosqonoosq0toOutv,stoq 2000=100Rqyq: Ameco Database Eupunokq Eni1ponq.vspyio % touspyottkouuvo0tkouRpoy0ottksq 0sosq onoosqRoooot ovspyioq(st kIi0oko):.,-, , . . 11, : 2009-2011( ) 13,2%. , , -, - , 2. ( 2012 23%-24%, !N/IZ-AAAY 68 KOZH 20!21.200.000) 2012 20% 2009. 12 -3-2-101234561996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.Ropoyuytktpto ov spyo(0svo(ER ov onoooIou0svo os tt0sq 2005)stpotsq % 0stooIsq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY 69 KOZH 20!2(12)- 2005-2008 6% , (2001-2004 1997-2000) 12% . 2008, , - , , 2008-2011, 5,6%. , 2011 - 2003. - -., ,-, - ( ). , 2009-2011, (, ), . . . , . , - - . 20102011 6,4% 2009,1,9%., , , 4,5%. 2012, (8%)-(,- 2). !N/IZ-AAAY 70 KOZH 20!2 13 02550751001251501995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011051015202530Movotoiokotoqspyooioq,stoq 2000=100Rqyq: Ameco Database Eupunokq Eni1ponq.vspyio % touspyottkouuvo0tkouMovotoio kotoq spyooioq os tpsouosq tt0sq, supstoq 2000=100Movotoio kotoqspyooioqotpv EE-27Movotoio kotoqspyooioq otpv EIIoRoooot ovspyioqotpv EIIo(st kIi0oko):mecoDatabase,E. 2012, 2003-2009 27 2010-2012.,, , . , -,,, , , , , , . (. ).2012, (+0,1%).,, , - , !N/IZ-AAAY 7! KOZH 20!2 2. , - ,,,, . -, - - .13 ( ): 1998-2001, 2008(7,5%). , . ( 13) - 2000 2003 ( -) .,, 2005-2008 - , . 2. (Skott2005,Arestis992,Lavoie992),-(fairwage)(wage-wageinflation),.,Hicks(975),,.,-(Hicks974,975)Keynes,(Bewley998,999,Kahneman,KnetschandThaler986a,986b)(AgellandBennmarker2007).HStirati(200).Akerlof(982)AkerlofandYellen(990)-.!N/IZ-AAAY 72 KOZH 20!2 ( , ) . - 2005-2008 - . , - ( - ) , ( ) . , . , - . , (competitiveness channel) , , 3, : 2004-2008 2009-2012. , , , , , , . , , . - , - . , , .(14), .. .(20),,995-2009,/-.!N/IZ-AAAY 73 KOZH 20!2 14 -12-9-6-30369121518212427301990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.os tq sup, tpsouosq tt0sq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E., . ,,-. ,, . , , , , ., -.-,: !N/IZ-AAAY 74 KOZH 20!2., -(aldor1985). . , - -, .., - . , ,-., , , , , . - , - ( - ). , , . , , , , - . - . , , - :!N/IZ-AAAY 7b KOZH 20!2 15 , 2000201190951001051101151201251301351402000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011c1oq 2000=100Rqyq: Ameco Database Eupunokq Eni1ponq.Tt0sq sIIpvtkv soyuyvoyoOv kot unppsotvMovotoio kotoqspyooioq otpv EIIoTt0sq soyuyv oyoOv kotunppsotv tuv upvtpq EE-27:mecoDatabase,E. , , ,2010-2011 , , . , , -, . -,- , . , , !N/IZ-AAAY 76 KOZH 20!2 4, . , , . , , : , . , , , , , - . , , . , , - , : , , -, . ,, : , 2010-2011, 4,7% ( ), ( ) - 11,9%. . , 35 , 2010-2011, - , 3,6% , 2,1% . - ,( 15). 4. , . ,,: , ,,,-,.!N/IZ-AAAY 77 KOZH 20!2 . ( ). - , - ). 2010-2011, , 2009 8%,4,7%, 3,4% ( ). 2,8% . ., , , . , - ( ) 2009 ( ) - . , , - , . -, , , . , 2010 . , . - . - !N/IZ-AAAY 78 KOZH 20!2 , () - - , , ., , -. ,, , - , - . , , , . , - , . ,, , . . , , , . , - - . , , -, - ( 5) :5. .(2012),,.!N/IZ-AAAY 79 KOZH 20!2 . 13,2% 2010-2011 2009, 8,5%. , ( ) -, 2010-2011, 22,8%. , ( 16) 19 -.2012, 33 . - - . (), 2010-2011,4(-10%)2009. ,2012, 2009. ,, , , (. 3).!N/IZ-AAAY 80 KOZH 20!2 16 , ( )0204060801001201401601802001996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20124441424550514942403631332823232120991131251321271191111081029689787571666154Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.os tosk. supKo0op Isttoupytk nIsvoooupic tqv ootq spyooioctuv outoonoooIousvuvAotq spyooioc to0utuv kotoutoonoooIousvuv:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.-(-) , , - . , , , , (.. -), . , -2010-2011 2009 2012 2 . , , , . , !N/IZ-AAAY 8! KOZH 20!22012, .- Fisher, -, - . ,, . 2009, 2012 , , , - ( , -, )., , , , - , , , , -,, - ( - ). , . ,,- -. . !N/IZ-AAAY 82 KOZH 20!2 17 ( ) 1983201250607080901001101201301983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.KoOop Isttoupytk nIsvoo0o % tou koOopou onoOs0otoq noyiou ksoIoiou(stoq 2000=100):mecoDatabase,E. ( 17), 2008, , - . ,, ( ,,-)-202. 2, -: , , !N/IZ-AAAY 83 KOZH 20!2. 17, 2, , 2009. ( 14). -, : , - . - . - . ,-,-,6., , . , , -, (). , , . . , , . - ( ) . , - ( )7.6. -.7. Amable(20)-(2008-20).!N/IZ-AAAY 84 KOZH 20!2H (Setterfield 1998, aldor 1982, Boyer et Petit 1991), , , . , , ., (- ), . , , -,, 8 - . , 9 - -. , , , , , -8. DullienandFritsche(2008),,-,.Dullien,Fritsche,GroesslandPaetz(2009),BelkeandGros(2007),(stability) .,.,()-,.,.,2007,BelkeandGros(2007),,,,.9. .(202),..!N/IZ-AAAY 8b KOZH 20!2 ( , nairu). , - -. , , , , , , , . 4 , , -, . 3 2010-2012!N/IZ-AAAY 89 KOZH 20!2 2010-20123.1. 7,1%2008-2010, 6,9%2011., , , 2008-2011 - 14,5%. - , , , 3% 2010 0,5% 2011, 1,1% 2012. 9 . - ( 2012), 2012 4,7%. 2, ,- (-6%, -7%). , ( 2) , . , , . , , . , - , , , . , !N/IZ-AAAY 90 KOZH 20!2 2 - . , . , - - . , . 2012, (2008) 19,8%. , 20082012, 1/5 ( . 2). 18 , 19902012051015202530354045501990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.os tItsq sup, tt0sq 2005Ropoyuytktpto spyooioq(ER ov onoooIou0svo)ER ov ktotko1874915282:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY 9! KOZH 20!2- : , , 2012 18,6% 2008 4,7%. , , 2002 ( 18). 2012, 3 ( 2005 2002). , , 2008, 5,6% 2003 ( 2005, 2012 2 ). , , , 2012 . . - , . , , -10, . , - , , 11. 0. (202),... , , , (Sneessens and Drze 1986, OShaughnessy 20).,-, ( -).,,, . , -!N/IZ-AAAY 92 KOZH 20!2 19 , 1991201201020304050607080901001991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.E ER E oov ov o ktootko otko kt kto uuq u noooot oot oot noo nooo u tou 0ooou o ss pouuu po popqq tpp EEE EE uv vv tuu 5 5 15 5 oIotv Iot Iot noo upv up up 000 vv sI sIos o loott oot oot 000 q isqq opoottkpq p ttkp ottkp opoo opoo yy Au uvo uvo AA 000pqER ov onoooIou0svo uq noooot tou 0soou poutpq EE tuv 15 noIotv upv 0sIvos loott0isq yopoottkpq Auvo0pq-5,0%-16,2%:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. , , 1995 2009. : , , 15 . 2010-2012, , 16,2% 15 . - 85,5% -15 2009 71,6% 2012(19). , 1999., ,nairu.,,.!N/IZ-AAAY 93 KOZH 20!219, ,2008, , 15 ( - ). 2010-2012 - , . 2010 2011 15 , , 5 ( 19). , 2009 90,1% 15, 2011 85,8%. , 16,2 , 5,0 11,2 . 2012, - 85,8% -15. ,, . () 2011 1,6% 1,7% 2010 2,8% 2009. - 2012 0,7%. , , . 35 ( - ) 1993-2012 20. - , 2011 0,5% 35 . 2,6% 2012 ( 20) 35 - , .!N/IZ-AAAY 94 KOZH 20!2 20 35 , 1993201290951001051101151201993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp. 2000=100os oIptoos sOvtk vo0io0oto2012: npIsp:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E., 2000, ,- , 2009 . , 0,2%, ,35 , 1,4%, 35, 1,6%. !N/IZ-AAAY 9b KOZH 20!2 21 35 , 1995201290929496981001021041061081101995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.(ER ov onoooIou0svo os tt0sq 2000npoq to ovtiototo 0sysOoq os 35 psq)-6,1%:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. 21, 2003, 35 , -()., ,, ,-. ,2004,( 2004-2007 ). - 20102012 35 6,1%.,, !N/IZ-AAAY 96 KOZH 20!2 2012 . 22 , 19902012051015202530354045501990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.os tq sup, tt0sq 2005:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. - , .,, 2008,2009-2011-2012(22).2012, 1997 - ( ).!N/IZ-AAAY 97 KOZH 20!2 23 , , , 19902012-6%-3%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%21%24%27%30%1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011Rqyq: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokq Eni1ponq.okoOptotsqouvoItksq snsvuostqkoOopsq ouvoItksq snsvuostqokoOptotsqttuttksq snsvuostq2003:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E. , 23. . 2004. , , 2004 2007, , . , , 2003 2007 16%. 2008, , 2009- 2012, .-,-6% !N/IZ-AAAY 98 KOZH 20!2( 23). , . : , . 24 , , 2005, 19952012024681012141618201995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011kotooksusqnIpv kototktvtqsupRpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.kototkisq0stoIItk npovtokot 0povsq0stooptk 0soo:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY 99 KOZH 20!2 25 , 19832012-50%-37%-23%-10%3%17%30%1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.MstooIp tou ER os otoOspsq tt0sq stouq t ov 0ovo okoOptotpq snsvuopqnoyiou ksoIoiou tpq npopyou0svpq nsptou:mecoDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY !00 KOZH 20!2 26 , 19832012-1012345671983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.KoOop onOs0o noyiou ksoIoiou os tt0sq 2005 ov onoooIou0svoEtpotoq puO0q 0stooIpq:mecoDatabase,E. 2009-2012 (24) , . 25 , (t) -(t-1),1983-2012. - . ( ).!N/IZ-AAAY !0! KOZH 20!2 27 / , 1983201220%23%26%29%32%35%1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.KoOop sypto npov % tou koOopou onoOs0otoq noyiou ksoIoiouZs nIppponooIpoptou nopoyuytkouuvo0tkouRpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.KoOop sypto npov % tou koOopou onoOs0otoq noyiou ksoIoiouZs nIppponooIpoptou nopoyuytkouuvo0tkou:mecoDatabase,E. , -(26)- . / 2007, . 2008-2012 ,,- , , / , - (. 27). / 12. 172,( 2. /.!N/IZ-AAAY !02 KOZH 20!2 ) , 1991. 2008 . / , . , - , . 4,9% 2009-2010, ()7,1%2011 5,7% 2012 ( 28). , 2009-2012, 18,8% , 2012, 2003. - , . ( 29) 4,8% 2009, ., , -. 2010 - 7,2% 2010 9,1% 2011. , 2011, 2010-2011 - 16,9%. , 2012 11,0% ( 2011 ).!N/IZ-AAAY !03 KOZH 20!2 28 , 2005, 19902012-8.0-6.0-4.0-2.002.04.06.01990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011stpotsqskotoottoisq0stooIsqRqyq: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokq Eni1ponq.:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY !04 KOZH 20!2 29 , 2005, 19902012-14-12-10-8-6-4-2024681012141990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011stpotsqskotoottoisq0stooIsqRqyq: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokq Eni1ponq.:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY !0b KOZH 20!2 30 , 19962012-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.loo(yio 1pcouov ouvoIIoyv% 1ou AERE(u1cpik ioo(yio oyo0vkoi unqpcoiv% 1ou AER:mecoDatabase,E.2009,20%, ,2008.,2010-2011-3,9%. ( 2011), - 2011 10,7%. , , , 3,2%. , , - , - 36% 2009-2012. -14% 2008 -6% 2012 ( 30). 2012-, !N/IZ-AAAY !06 KOZH 20!2 (+0,9%)., , , , , . ( 30), , -2009-2012(31). , , , , , . 31 , 19952012-6-4-2024681995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.% tou ER tou nopsIOvtoq stouq:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.!N/IZ-AAAY !07 KOZH 20!2 32 , 19902012-6-4-2024681990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011Rpyp: Annual Macroeconomic Database, Eupunokp Enttponp.% tou ER tou nopsIOvtoq stouqEnsvuostq noyiou ksoIoioultuttkp kotovIuop:nnualMacroeconomicDatabase,E.- , , . ( ), , 2008, - , - 32. , . , -, , . !N/IZ-AAAY !08 KOZH 20!2 33 / , 1987201255%60%65%70%75%80%85%1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponpos otoOspsq tt0sq stouq 2005:mecoDatabase,E. , , - . , , . !N/IZ-AAAY !09 KOZH 20!2 34 , 1989201250607080901001101201989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.stoq 2000=100Rpyp: Ameco Database Eupunokp Enttponp.stoq 2000=100:mecoDatabase,E. / , 60%-70%1990-2008(17) 2010-2011 2012 85% 1987. 2011, , 2012. 13 . , , . AmecoMarketperformanceofexportsofgoodsandservicesonexportweightedimportsofgoodsandservices:5industrialmarkets).!N/IZ-AAAY !!0 KOZH 20!2 . , 2010-20113,9% -9,2%().() 3,9%, 14,4% . - , . , / ( 33), ( 30) ( 31), ,, : . , - . 4 !N/IZ-AAAY !!3 KOZH 20!2 4.1. , , , . , , - , -, - . , , , ,, , , - , .,,- , , . ., , ,, . !N/IZ-AAAY !!4 KOZH 20!2 , -. (competitiveness channel), (wage setting), - (price setting) . , , , , - , , , , . , - - . , - -. , - , - , , - (nairu non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment). . , , 14, - , 4. (2012), , , .!N/IZ-AAAY !!b KOZH 20!2 , , - ( , , -, , ..). -, . , , (Hatsopoulos, rugman and Summers, 1988). , , , ( - ) : , , , ( , , - , ). -, . - Williamson(1985,1993,2009),1983 (FEER Fundamental EquilibriumExchangeRate) - . - (river and Westaway 2004, Wren-Lewis 2003, Hansen and Roeger 2000) nairu . , -(),- ., ,-,, ..(.Nickelletal.2005, IF 1999, 2003, Layard et al. 1991, Layard and Nickell 1998, Nickell 1998, Boeri et !N/IZ-AAAY !!6 KOZH 20!2al. 2000, Bean, 1998). , ( ), .,,- .,, , . ,, ,-, , , .. (. Brittoand combie2009,Stockhammer2008,HallandSoskice2001,Rowthorn 1995, Arestis and Sawyer 2005, Blecker 1998, Lafay 1979, 1987, 1989, Bensidoun et al. 2001, Fagerberg 1988, 1996, Amable and Verspagen 1995, Thirlwall 1979, Hussain 1982, combie 1993, 1997, combie and Thirlwall 1994, 1999, arlin et al. 2001). - non-price competitiveness - (Aglietta 1997, azier et al. 1988, Amable 1990, Taddei et oriat 1993). aldor(1978) . , , , - , . -(Aglietta,1997),- . , ,- , , , , , , !N/IZ-AAAY !!7 KOZH 20!2, , , . ( ) . , , ( , , ). , , - , (Stockhammer, 2008). , ( nairu story, Stockhammer), . , , , (. 2). - , -,, , , , , .!N/IZ-AAAY !!8 KOZH 20!24.2. eynes (1936) Rowthorn (1977, 1980, 1981) 1990 , (. arlinandSoskice1990,1112,arlinand Soskice2006,910,Layard,Nickellandackman1991,8, Rowthorn1995,1999). ,-,, . eynes onflict, inflation and money Robert Rowthorn (1977, 1980), - .,Layard,Nickellandackman(1991)- , . , -(Stockhammer 2008), :I.-() ( ). la Walras, - , , . II. (labour market institutions) . - - (efficiency wages) .. III., (targetwage), ., . IV., . !N/IZ-AAAY !!9 KOZH 20!2V. , - - , . , . VI., , , . VII. , . , ( ) . VIII. ( ), . (, , ) -. ,, . IX. , , (,, ), . , , . nairu. nairu. -(nairu),, , . -!N/IZ-AAAY !20 KOZH 20!2, , , , , , . X., - . , nairu . XI. (negotiated wage) - . XII. , kun. XIII. : (), . . .,-, . , .XIV. H , , ,-.. nairu . , , , -. XV.- !N/IZ-AAAY !2! KOZH 20!2 , . , , , 19 eynes. (realbalance effect), , , , , , - Bhaduri and arglin (1990) - (wage led growth). Layardetal.(1991),- , - (nairu), . , - -.Stockhammer(2008) , , - , , - . , , - . 1991 Layard, Nickell and ackman ( LN). LN , , , - (Freeman, 2005), (. E 1994, 1998, IF 1999, 2003). -, , , , , : - -!N/IZ-AAAY !22 KOZH 20!2., . : , , , , , nairu , . ,,- , - 19 eynes. (realbalanceeffect). . , ( -) . -, LN (1991) Lindbeck (1993). , -,, .-,,- , , . ( Taylor) - -, . eynes, ( ) , - . nairu - , nairu, . ( -),. !N/IZ-AAAY !23 KOZH 20!2, nairu , . , nairu, . , , , ,nairu.,-, , , , . nairu . - , , (Layard et al. 1991, arlin and Soskice 1990, 2006, Lindbeck 1993, almfors and Holmlund 2000, IF 1999, Snower 1995, ankiw 2001, ankiw and Ball 2004). , , - nairu. ,, , -,,,, . , nairu, , - , . - , . (cross-country analysis) (-: Scarpetta 1996, Nickell 1997, Nickell and Layard 1998, Elmeskov et al. 1998, Nickell et al. 2005, IF 2003, Belot and Van urs 2001, 2004, Nicoletti and Scarpetta 2005, Bassanini and uval 2006) - , . nairu, , !N/IZ-AAAY !24 KOZH 20!2,/ , - . -. , , . . , , .-, - : , nairu. - , , . , , : , ,, . , , .-, , - . , - nairu: , , - , nairu. -,,( ) nairu. , , , , , , (, ). !N/IZ-AAAY !2b KOZH 20!2- :, , . , , , -(,) . ,, - . () eynes alecki, -19701980(aldor,1972, 1978a, 1978b, Rowthorn, 1977, 1980, 1981, Bhaduri and arglin, 1990), -, Sawyer(2002,2004,2005),Stockhammer(2004,2007,2008,2011), Stockhammer and Klr (2011), Arestis (1986, 1992), Rowthorn (1995, 1999), Arestis andSawyer(2005).H, , , ( ) . nairu . , Stiglitz (1997) - , nairu(Staigeretal.1997,Setterfieldetal.1992) . , -nairu(Galbraith 1997, Akerlof et al. 1996). Blanchard and atz (1997) Blanchard (2007a) , - - , , , . , .!N/IZ-AAAY !26 KOZH 20!2-(Eisner1994, 1995,Sawyer,1997a,1997b,2002,2004,ArestisandSawyer2005,Stockhammer, 2004, 2007, Storm and Naastepaad 2007) - , . , , -. H nairu , , - . , , - , , , , , . Lindbeck, []. ,,-, (Lindbeck 1993, p. 187). , .Nicholasaldor,- (cumulative causation): , - , , (Setterfield 1998). , , (wage-led) (profit-led) (Palley 2011, Stockhammer 2011, Hein and Stockhammer 2010, Stockhammer et al. 2009, Hein and Vogel 2008, Bhaduri 2007, Bhaduri and arglin 1990). , ., ,ceterisparibus, !N/IZ-AAAY !27 KOZH 20!2 , . , -, . , , , , . , . ,,(), , .-, (profit led growth). eynes, . , 2009, : , , ().,-,, , ,., . -, . , nairu - . nairu. (:StockhammerandKlr2011,aranassouetal. 2008,Howelletal.2007,Bakeretal.2005,Stockhammer2004,2011,Arestisand ariscal 2000, Arestis et al. 2007, apadia 2004, Arestis and ariscal 2000, Gordon 1997, Fitoussi et al. 2000) -nairu . , !N/IZ-AAAY !28 KOZH 20!2,-,, () , , ,(supplyshocks)(Blanchard and Wolfers 2000, Bassanini and uval 2006). , , . ( , ). ,- ,nairu , , , . -(Nickell,1998) (Layard et al., 1991) (insider-outsider effect) (Lindbeck and Snower 1986, Blanchard and Summers, 1986). , , , -, . , , - , -, , , (Sneessens and Drze, 1986, OShaughnessy 2011). -- , , . , , . . , , , .,, ( !N/IZ-AAAY !29 KOZH 20!2). , ceteris paribus, - . , -, , . , -, ,nairu.,, , nairu . , : , ( ) -., , ., . , , , - . , - - , , . ., , nairu - . Blanchard and Wolfers, [...] - (Blanchard and Wolfers, 2000). nairu, . ,15, . 5. .(202),..!N/IZ-AAAY !30 KOZH 20!2 , -, , 2, - . , , - , .4.3. (.. , 2010-2012).,,- . , Fisher. , :1. I. 16. - ( ) .II. ( , ).III. , .IV. 6. +=C+I+G+(XM).!N/IZ-AAAY !3! KOZH 20!2.,( , , .) . V.,, ,, , . - . , - , , . , . 2. VI., , , , . -, (targetwage),- . , , ., ( ).VII. , - , -, ., -,. , !N/IZ-AAAY !32 KOZH 20!2, -. . , . , - , . , - . , , ., . - , - .VIII. ,- . , , . , , -, , - ,. , . IX. , , . !N/IZ-AAAY !33 KOZH 20!2 ( ). -,, - . X. , .,,. - ( ), - . , ,,, ,,,- . , , . - ( ) , ceteris paribus, . , ,- , . , ( ). , . - . 3. , , -. , , , , . XI. - , : !N/IZ-AAAY !34 KOZH 20!2- , --, . , , .XII. . ,,, . - .XIII. (Y) -, ,(wagebill).-- , , (,), . , , , , .XIV. Fisher, 17, , , , - . ,, -7. ,Fisher.!N/IZ-AAAY !3b KOZH 20!2.,, . , , (- ) , . , . , . : , - . .XV., ,, , . ,,-,,-(),, ( , ). , ( ). , . , , . , - . - . , , !N/IZ-AAAY !36 KOZH 20!2 , -. , . , , , . , .XVI. - .XVII.:, - , , , ceteris paribus, . , , . , , , ( ).XVIII. - . , , . - . , , nairu, - ( )18. XIX.H (Setterfield 1998, aldor 1982, Boyer et Petit 1991), 8. Amable(20)-2008-20.!N/IZ-AAAY !37 KOZH 20!2 , , . ( -, Taylor ), , . ,- , . XX., , - (nairu), -, ,-,,, .- ( -,), , .,, ( ) -, . - . . 4. , XXI. , , - : , ,.-, , , , , , -!N/IZ-AAAY !38 KOZH 20!2 . . -, .4.4. . : , . :1. , ,.-:, , , . , , , ,( )(19). ,-, . . , - . , 2010-2011 6,4% 2009 1,9%. , 9. NicholasKaldor:. , , , ,,.,,(Kaldor,986,p.58).!N/IZ-AAAY !39 KOZH 20!2,,4,5%( 2012, . 2).2. - -.,,, 2010-2012, -. , ,., ., -: , , . , ,, , - . , . , ( ) , ., , ., .,, , , .3. - , !N/IZ-AAAY !40 KOZH 20!2 , - . - , . , , -. , (- ) 2011 55% 85% 27.4. (- ) - . , , . - .-, . . , , ., , , . , .- .,- ( ), . , ( ). , , !N/IZ-AAAY !4! KOZH 20!2 . , (, , - , , ). , (-), - . - , . :- , ( ). 2 - .4.5. 2 ( ) , , , ( , ). - , , , . , , ,, , , !N/IZ-AAAY !42 KOZH 20!2 . ,-: , , , .,, , . , . , 2008, . , , - . - , , , -, , () ., - . , , - (.. - ). , . , , ., - . , , -, !N/IZ-AAAY !43 KOZH 20!2 . , , . - , ( - ) . , , 20. , - , , , . , - , ., ( ), - , . -, , , , . , , ( ). , - ( ). 20. 982,-.!N/IZ-AAAY !44 KOZH 20!2,, -, . , , , ( ) :, , . - , , - 2008, . - , . - - ., , , , -.,, () , . ,2, , 2010-2011, . , - - . ,(,- ), , !N/IZ-AAAY !4b KOZH 20!2 . , : 1. i. 21. ( ) . . 2, .ii. - ( , - ).iii. , .iv. .,. - . v. , , -,, , - . -. , ,,, . , .,,- .2. +=C+I+G+(XM).!N/IZ-AAAY !46 KOZH 20!2 2. VI. , ,-, , - . , (target wage), - . , , . , -- ( ). - 2.VII. , - , , - -., , . , - . , , - , - ( ) . , -, , - . , -!N/IZ-AAAY !47 KOZH 20!2, 15 ( 2011).VIII. , ., ,-., , - ., , , - , , - . , - , , , , ,, - .IX. -- , ., , .X. , . !N/IZ-AAAY !48 KOZH 20!2-(), . , - , -, . . , -, , .. -- , ., , ,-(. - ).XI.,-( ) . , - . , :, - ( ). 3. XII. - , .,, ,- , ( ) . .XIII. !N/IZ-AAAY !49 KOZH 20!2. ,,, .XIV. - , (wagebill). ,( ) . , , , , .XV. - , , , - . , , . , - , . --.XVI., ,, , . , , -,, ( ). , ( ). , !N/IZ-AAAY !b0 KOZH 20!2(-). , -., , , - . -, ,, ( ) , -. - , ,, , - . , - .XVII., : , - , , - . , , -., -, .XVIII. - . ,, . - ,-!N/IZ-AAAY !b! KOZH 20!2 . - . XIX. , , - (nairu) , - , , -,,, .- , , , , . ,-,- ,-,-. :"" XX., - , , ,- . - - . -!N/IZ-AAAY !b2 KOZH 20!2 , ,,., , . 5 , !N/IZ-AAAY !bb KOZH 20!2 , 5.1.,- 30, . , -( ), , , , - ( - ). -, --, - , , . , , -- , ., , , -!N/IZ-AAAY !b6 KOZH 20!2 . , -, , , . - , - , , - , . 5.2. . , , , 1980 , .-( ) - , 1980 . , ,. - - . !N/IZ-AAAY !b7 KOZH 20!2, , . , , ,, . , , . , 2000 ,. 1990 ,- - . , - . 1990 , , .- , (, ) , ( ). -,, 15 . ,-,- . !N/IZ-AAAY !b8 KOZH 20!2 ( ) one stop shop (- ) . , - , ,-(),. , ., , , 1970 , , , . 5.3. ,-,- ,- . ,- -. , , , , , - . -, , -,-,, !N/IZ-AAAY !b9 KOZH 20!2. , - , , . , -,,-, , . - , - . - , , . , , , . - . , , . , ( -) . , -, , . , , , ,, !N/IZ-AAAY !60 KOZH 20!2, , , . , - - , - , , . 5.4. . , , . , , .- , , . , . -, -, . , , ,- . , !N/IZ-AAAY !6! KOZH 20!2 , . , , , , . - , , - , , . , - - . - -,( ), . - , , , . ,- , - . . - . , ., . !N/IZ-AAAY !62 KOZH 20!2 , -. , , . - . , , - , , . . .- (), , , . , , - , , - , , . - , , - . , , , - , ,. !N/IZ-AAAY !63 KOZH 20!2 , , - . - , . , - , - , ., , . , . -,(..-), . , - ( ) , -, - .5.5. ,- , , ,-, - . !N/IZ-AAAY !64 KOZH 20!2 , , , . - . -,- , , , , -. , , - . , -, , . , -, - , -, . , -. , , -.- , . , - ( ), , ( ) ( ) !N/IZ-AAAY !6b KOZH 20!2 . , , . , , . , , , - , , ., , - , -,. , , - , , , . - - , , . , . - , - .!N/IZ-AAAY !66 KOZH 20!25.6. ( ) 5.6.1. , .- , . , (- ). , 3,22012,17,62015,23,5201650 202222., 0,5% 2020, 1% 23.,,- , -,, , 24. : ) (-22. IMF(202),Greece:RequestforExtendedArrangementUndertheExtendedFundFacility,IMFCountryReportNo.2/57,March202.:,(4.8).(6).(9.2).2. 0():Theauthoritiesreconfirmedtheircommitmenttotransferasignificantshareofstateassetstotheprivatesector.Theauthoritiesnotedthatsuccessfulprivatizationwouldbringconsiderable benefits to Greece. First, the asset transfer would create a basis for new investment and productivityenhancements, growth, and employment, including through real estate development and improvements in existingenterprises. Second,privatizationwouldhelpreducepublicdebtbyanestimatedpercentofGPthrough 2020, saving Greece about 1 percent of GP per year in interest.Lastly,asenterpriseperformanceisimprovedwith modern management, new technologies, and additional investment, it will create a stronger tax revenue andemploymentbasewhichshouldhelptoreducethefiscaladjustmentburden.24. (2011),-2012-2015,92011.!N/IZ-AAAY !67 KOZH 20!2, ) ) . , , , (, ), ( / -)(, ). - , , ., , . -- . , , , (,) ,, . : , (, -,,)25.-(,, ). - , - -- ( ). , - . , , -26- 25. ,( ) - ) - ) - ) - )-,,, , ( ). ). ). ). ).26. Sv (S). (S). (S). (S). (S). (S). (S). (S). (S).!N/IZ-AAAY !68 KOZH 20!2 , . /, . , . 1980, , , ( , , ). -/ - , - , . , - (, )( / ) ( ). ( ) - , , . - (, /, 27), (, 28), () -27. ,-- (.. ) .,.28. (, ,!N/IZ-AAAY !69 KOZH 20!2 ()29. , - , , , , . , - , - 1979-1996 , , . . , - . 30 (Frangakis, Huffschmid, 2010). , -, - - . -. (.. con- con-sulta social ), social ), social ), ), (.. , ) - (, ). , - , . ,- . , -. .-,).29. .0. 977-2007.-5796,57.,.,-.,990-2005.-5, (,80%), (,2%), (0,96%), (0,9%) (0,77%).0,6%...-5(0,5%).!N/IZ-AAAY !70 KOZH 20!2 . , . , -,, . , : - . -, , . , , - . , -- . ,- (). . , - . - . !N/IZ-AAAY !7! KOZH 20!25.6.2. () 2011 2012. 5.6.2.1. (, 2011) , - . Forum Italiano dei Movi- Forum Italiano dei Movi- Italiano dei Movi- Italiano dei Movi- dei Movi- dei Movi- Movi- Movi-menti per lAcqua per lAcqua per lAcqua lAcqua lAcqua Acqua Acqua ( ) 2006. . Galli 1994 Galli 1994 1994 .2009 23133,- . , Ronchi - Ronchi - - 70% 2012 (ugard, rage, 2012). ugard, rage, 2012). , rage, 2012). rage, 2012). , 2012). - , - , , , . 1.400.000 , 2009. - 75 . , , 12 13 2011, 57% , . - ( ): 133/2008 . 154 152/2006 . !N/IZ-AAAY !72 KOZH 20!2(95,5%).- . - . (EPS) - - EPS) - - )-- () - -31. , , .. .,- - ( ). , - 32. - , . - . 5.6.2.2. (, 2011) 2011. , - , . Berlin Water Table 2007 - Berlin Water Table 2007 - Water Table 2007 - Water Table 2007 - Table 2007 - Table 2007 - 2007 -Berliner Wasserbetriebe Berliner Wasserbetriebe Wasserbetriebe Wasserbetriebe 1999. , (), - . 49,9% -Vivendi ( Veolia), RWE Vivendi ( Veolia), RWE (Veolia), RWE Veolia), RWE ),RWE RWE Acqua Allianz. Allianz. Allianz. . . PSU(2011),WMvMphh.2. ORh,Rqh PM Sv h P h p PM Sv h P h p PMSvhPhpChPhpC,4/11/2011.!N/IZ-AAAY !73 KOZH 20!2., , , 15% 20% . (ugard, ugard, , rage, 2012). , 2000 ,2012).,2000 ( 7000 ), . -, Veolia RWE 1,3 Veolia RWE 1,3 RWE 1,3 RWE 1,3 1,3 10 . 62(1) . - , , - . - 2009 . , . - - . . 280.000 , 100.000 , (170.000). , (ugard, rage, 2012). , - ugard, rage, 2012). , - , rage, 2012). , - rage, 2012). , - , 2012). , - 2011 25% (665.713 ). 98.2% . Berliner Wassertisch. Berliner Wassertisch. Wassertisch. Wassertisch. . , ,-12012. , . !N/IZ-AAAY !74 KOZH 20!2 , , . 5.6.2.3. . 9 2012, -. 167.000 - (anal de Isabel II) anal de Isabel II) de Isabel II) de Isabel II) Isabel II) Isabel II) II) II) ) 33. 34 (Agua e de todos) Agua e de todos) e de todos) e de todos) de todos) de todos) todos) todos) ) . , - - . 5.6.3. , - - - . remunicipalisation ( remunicipalisation ( ( ) . , : . - , . -. 167.000 p v pp b C b , . Sv, P,5/3/2012.4. hp://.g./!N/IZ-AAAY !7b KOZH 20!2 - (progressive public management). progressive public management). public management). public management). management). management). ). 5.6.3.1. , , - , , - . , (conald, 2011): conald, 2011): , 2011): ( , , - ). ( , , , ). ( , / , ). (, ). (- ). (,-, ). ( , -, , , , , ). ( , ).!N/IZ-AAAY !76 KOZH 20!2(- , ). ( , , - ). ( ;). 5.6.3.2. ()(Grenoble Grenoble35) . , -:, , - . . 5.6.3.2.1. 1989,,, GESE, - GESE, - , -Lyonnaise des Eaux ( SE). Lyonnaise des Eaux ( SE). des Eaux ( SE). des Eaux ( SE). Eaux ( SE). Eaux ( SE). (SE). SE). ). RPR (Rassemblement pour la Republique) (Rassemblement pour la Republique) Rassemblement pour la Republique) pour la Republique) pour la Republique) la Republique) la Republique) Republique) Republique) ) - Lyonnaise des Eaux, . Lyonnaise des Eaux, . des Eaux, . des Eaux, . Eaux, . Eaux, . , . - 25 -- 5. 665.000157.000.!N/IZ-AAAY !77 KOZH 20!2. - - . - , (Avrilier, 2011). , Avrilier, 2011). , ,2011)., . 1980 - . - 36. 5.6.3.2.2. . 1995. (19) . -GESE. GESE. . -375.15- (Lobina, 2006). Lobina, 2006). , 2006). , - . , - . - GESE. GESE. . - . GESE GESE 6. (,,, , ). , -(Le Masne, Le Masne, Masne, Masne, ,2008).!N/IZ-AAAY !78 KOZH 20!2.---25- (Lobina, 2006). GESE Lobina, 2006). GESE , 2006). GESE GESE .,-. - . - . 5.6.3.2.3. , - GESE. . 1995. GESE, GESE, , . - GESE . . (SEG) 51% SEG) 51% ) 51% 49%GESE (Lyonnaise des Eaux). GESE (Lyonnaise des Eaux). (Lyonnaise des Eaux). Lyonnaise des Eaux). des Eaux). des Eaux). Eaux). Eaux). ). - . SEG 15 SGEA, Lyonnaise SEG 15 SGEA, Lyonnaise 15SGEA, Lyonnaise SGEA, Lyonnaise ,Lyonnaise Lyonnaise des Eaux. Lyonnaise des Eaux - Eaux. Lyonnaise des Eaux - Eaux. Lyonnaise des Eaux - .Lyonnaise des Eaux - Lyonnaise des Eaux - des Eaux - des Eaux - Eaux - Eaux - -SEG , , SEG , , ,, . - , (Lobina, 2006). Lobina, 2006). , 2006). .,1998 SEG 51,05% 67,05% SEG 51,05% 67,05% 51,05% 67,05% Lyonnaise des Eaux ( Lyonnaise des Eaux ( des Eaux ( des Eaux ( Eaux ( Eaux ( ( !N/IZ-AAAY !79 KOZH 20!2 33% ). SEG SEG SGEA. - . - 1999. -, 2000 .5.6.3.2.4. Rgie des Eaux de Grenoble . ., ( )., - ( ). , : , ( ). - - . - 1 3 . 5.6.3.2.5. - -(2001). (Lobina, 2006): Lobina, 2006): : . - !N/IZ-AAAY !80 KOZH 20!2 ( , , ). - .. - . - (in house provision). in house provision). house provision). house provision). provision). provision). ). . GESE GESE () Lyonnaise des Eaux. Lyonnaise des Eaux. des Eaux. des Eaux. Eaux. Eaux. . , . , - .5.6.3.2.6. ,- Lyonnaise Lyonnaise des Eaux (Avrilier, 2011): Eaux (Avrilier, 2011): Eaux (Avrilier, 2011): (Avrilier, 2011): Avrilier, 2011): , 2011): 1997, Lyonnaise des Eaux Lyonnaise des Eaux des Eaux des Eaux Eaux Eaux 20% - . , - 100.000 . - 20 30 . - . , (Lyonnaise des Eaux). Lyonnaise des Eaux). des Eaux). des Eaux). Eaux). Eaux). ). . . -, !N/IZ-AAAY !8! KOZH 20!2(comit des usagers de leau de Grenoble des usagers de leau de Grenoble des usagers de leau de Grenoble usagers de leau de Grenoble usagers de leau de Grenoble de leau de Grenoble de leau de Grenoble leau de Grenoble leau de Grenoble eau de Grenoble eau de Grenoble de Grenoble de Grenoble Grenoble Grenoble)- - - (, , , ). , , - , . 5.6.3.2.7. . :,, - . - . - -. - (capacity) capacity) ) / . (transaction cost) transaction cost) cost) cost) ) , -. (Avrilier, 2011). Avrilier, 2011). , 2011). ) ) -) ) - .!N/IZ-AAAY !82 KOZH 20!25.6.4. (2010) 25 -- (Suez Veolia). - Suez Veolia). - Veolia). - Veolia). - ). -, 2008 Eau Eau de Paris. Paris. Paris. . 5.6.4.1. 1984 . . RPR (Rassemblement pour la Republique) RPR (Rassemblement pour la Republique) (Rassemblement pour la Republique) Rassemblement pour la Republique) pour la Republique) pour la Republique) la Republique) la Republique) Republique) Republique) ) ,Lyonnaise Lyonnaise des Eaux ( Suez). , Eaux ( Suez). , Eaux ( Suez). , ( Suez). , Suez). , ). , 25 EP ( Veolia) Eau et Force ( Lyonnaise des ( Veolia) Eau et Force ( Lyonnaise des Veolia) Eau et Force ( Lyonnaise des ) Eau et Force ( Lyonnaise des Eau et Force ( Lyonnaise des et Force ( Lyonnaise des et Force ( Lyonnaise des Force ( Lyonnaise des Force ( Lyonnaise des ( Lyonnaise des Lyonnaise des des des Eaux). ).5.6.4.2. -. , 265%, -70%(Pigeon, Pigeon, , 2011). .,90% 1991 1997, 100.000 51,5%. -, .,- . , , - 6%-7%. - 15%- . -. !N/IZ-AAAY !83 KOZH 20!2SAGEP , SAGEP , , 37. 5.6.4.3.