©TNS 2014 3 - esvep.gr total 6.63 Head&Shoulders 8.70 ... Coca -Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline...

©TNS 2014 1

Helena Chari | TNS

@helena_chariΣυνέδριο ΕΣΒΕΠ

26.2.2014

Living in a half-built house

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The press coverage

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GDP growth turns negative…for 6th consecutive year% change vs previous year

5,5

3,5

-0,2

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-0,2

-3,1

-4,9

-7,1-6,4

-3,8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

-40%gross disposable income

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Source: ELSTAT

Consumer spending

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No one believes the economy is doing well(only 2% agree)

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Source: Eurobarometer

28%unemployment

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Source: ELSTAT

61.4%youth unemployment

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Source: ELSTAT

No one believes the employment situation is good(only 1% agrees)

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17

34

49

28

39

59

4

10

12

15

20

Political parties

Government

Parliament

Television

The UN

The EU

2008

2013

Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet)‘tend to trust’ - %

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59

30

35

48

33

21

23

23

32

38

The EU

Regional/Local public authorities

The press

Radio

Internet

2013

Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80

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46

3732

36 38

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied')

26

19 1821 22

Personal job situation (total 'good')

How we currently see things

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36

24 22 22

29


Financial situation of h/h (total 'good')


4661 57

46 42


Your life in general (total 'worse')

30

4236 35

30

Personal job situation (total 'worse')

What we expect in 12 months

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5967

6257

52


Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse')


79 82 81

68 70


Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse')

We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment

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7578 76

62 63


Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse')


Retail sales – year on year

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Retail sales – year on year

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Consumer confidence

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Consumer confidence

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Business confidence

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New orders

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Manufacturing PMI

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What has been the consumer reaction?

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Need to have > Nice to have

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Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

Consumers have spent less (vs 2012)

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Consumers have bought less (vs 2012)

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Basket value

€

Frequency

€

The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012:

Basket size(volume)

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Same volume Paying less Less often


37,5 37,8 37,7

13,9 13,7 13,4

7,0 6,4 6,2stock up

mainstream25,3 25,4 25,5

27,4 25,9 25,1

Occasions % Spend %

The evolution of shopping missions:Smaller baskets are becoming more important

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41,6 42,1 42,7

37,5

MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13

top up

proximity13,9 14,6 15,0

33,3 34,1 34,4



1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency

Smaller baskets …

2. have significant growth in packs/trip

3. are flat in spend/trip

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Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip

MATNov 11

MATNov 12

MATNov 13

MATNov 11

MATNov 12

MATNov 13

MATNov 11

MATNov 12

MATNov 13

38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18


Shift to cheaper options

Promotions Downtrading

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Promotions Prices Downtrading


The steady march of

private labels

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You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And it’s a growing trend

61,3

63,5

64,4

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61,3


35


Private Label – volume share (in units)

38.1%

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38.1%


27.4%

Private Label - value share

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27.4%


Private Label value share differs widely category by category

76

54 53 52

39 38

3025

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38

25

14

paper products

edible oils RTE canned

food

frozen food alcoholic beverages

dairy products

snacks detergents personal care


Price is an issuethe

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600

700

800

900

3.500

4.000

4.500

Vo

lum

e (0

00

litre

s) -

Ac

tua

lS

pe

nd

(€

00

0)

-A

ctu

al

Rolling ΜΑΤ

Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92%

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400

500

2.500

3.000

27

-No

v-1

1

01-

Ja

n-1

2

29

-Ja

n-1

2

26

-Feb

-12

01-

Ap

r-12

29

-Ap

r-12

27

-Ma

y-1

2

01-

Ju

l-12

29

-Ju

l-12

26

-Au

g-1

2

30

-Sep

-12

28

-Oct

-12

25

-No

v-1

2

30

-Dec

-12

27

-Ja

n-1

3

24

-Feb

-13

31-

Ma

r-13

28

-Ap

r-13

26

-Ma

y-1

3

30

-Ju

n-1

3

28

-Ju

l-13

25

-Au

g-1

3

29

-Sep

-13

27

-Oct

-13

24

-No

v-1

3

Ac

tua

lS

pe

nd

(

Spend (€000) Volume (000 litres)


…and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration

Penetration grew by 43%

Volume per trip grew by 14%

Average price has declined by 14%

©TNS 2014

Frequency grew by 11%


Επαγγελµατική Ποιότητα σε Προσιτή Τιµή

Average price/volume

Shampoo total 6.63

Head&Shoulders 8.70

©TNS 2014

Head&Shoulders 8.70

Ultrex 8.22

Pantene 8.16

Fructis 7.94

Timotei 5.78

Johnson’s 5.58

Syoss 4.61

Private Labels 2.87


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43 4552 52 56 63 67 69 72 73

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands)

…even for market leaders

Loyalty in spend - %

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57 5548 48 44 37 33 31 28 27

Coca-Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline Amita Pantene Fitness Papagalos Misko


What makes less of a difference is

avg. weight of purchaseie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will

buy in a year

©TNS 2014

buy in a year

So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isn’t that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important?

©TNS 2014

Well…let’s take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration

…and only 16% of them are heavy

buyers

©TNS 2014

of brand shoppers are 100% loyal…

Heavy Buyers

Medium Buyers

Light Buyers

15.8%


53

46

46

43

Fanta

Ivi

Private Labels

Lux

Coca-Cola buyers are also buying:

©TNS 2014

39

30

27

Sprite

Pepsi

Epsa


…and only 20% of them are heavy

…and let’s look at another popular brand…Pantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37%

©TNS 2014

of brand shoppers are 100% loyal…

them are heavy buyers


31

24

21

20

20

19

18

Syoss

Head&Shoulders

Ultrex

Sunsilk

Fructis

Elvive

Timotei

Pantene buyers are also buying:

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18

18

16

14

13

13

11

Timotei

Private Labels

Beer

Wash&Go

Johnson's

Herbal Essences

Gliss


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…with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well)

66 6977 80 85 85 86 88

Loyalty in spend - %

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56

34 3123 20 15 15 14 12

Masoutis Sklavenitis Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market


91

35

Retailer frequency

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57

35

2218 15 14 14 13

Total Masoutis Sklavenitis Grp Carrefour

AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos


Your consumers are just

somebody else’s consumer who occasionally buy you

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(this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers)

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1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

©TNS 2014

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014 3 - esvep.gr total 6.63 Head&Shoulders 8.70 ... Coca -Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline...

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Transcript of ©TNS 2014 3 - esvep.gr total 6.63 Head&Shoulders 8.70 ... Coca -Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline...