The Solar Future DE - Ingmar Wilhelm "Can solar PV compete with grid energy in Italy by 2013?"

The future of the Photovoltaic market

Ingmar WILHELM Executive Vice President Enel Green Power S.p.A.

The Solar Future II – Munich - 8th June 2010

Solarplaza Conference Munich - 8th June 2010 1

Agenda


Investments 2009 - € bn

Δ Expected growth CAGR 2008-2020

Technology Global installed base 2008

Global installed base 2009

Δ capacity

Hydro

Wind

Geothermal

Solar

Biomass

~1.155 GW TOTAL +77

Source: Enel estimates based on IEA, EPIA, GWEC, EER.

* Calculated on 2008 equipment value

~1.230 GW

GW %

7%

In 2009, all renewable technologies have grown as expected

9%


Enel Green Power is active in all key technologies

Technology Net installed capacity 2009

Key areas of activity

Italy – Iberia – Europe – North America – Latin America

Hydro

Iberia – North America Biomass and other

5.666 MW TOTAL

Wind

Geothermal

Solar Iberia - Italy

Italy – Iberia – Europe – North America – Latin America

Italy – North America – Latin America


Capacity installed 5.666 MW

Energy produced: 20.7 TWh

Enel Green Power 2009

68 MW France

667 MW

Latin America

Enel Green Power: portfolio of markets

788 MW

North America

133 MW Greece

1,353 MW Iberia

2,637 MW Italy

21 MW Bulgaria


Enel Green Power business model along the PV value chain

Long Term Partnership

Make and buy Project lead Outsourcing

In-house : own plants Enel.si franchisees

• Flexible contracts

• Set of asset-based and commercial long-term supply options under study

• Dedicated development and engineering team

• Specialized engineering team: Construction Project management

• Combined O&M with existing renewables

• Network of PV installers throughout Italy

Manufacturing Distribution

Development Constru

ction O&M

Enel.si

• Procurement

• Franchising network with over 500 entrepreneurs

• Over 100 MW of PV installed in past three years

• Building & Production Equipment

• Land Scouting

• Due diligence

• Conceptual design

• Supplying of photovoltaic components

• Final design

• Modules, inverters, BOS integration

• Plant certification

• Plant visual inspection

• PV testing

• PV field measurement

Enel Green Power

Major content

Activity


Agenda


Global cumulative PV growth by markets source EPIA

• Impressive PV growth in 2009, even more important in 2010 • Europe is strongest area with 70% market share • However: global supply and demand scenario unsustainable


The future: Evolution of PV levelized cost of electricity

• Residential segment can reach grid parity before 2015 • Wholesale grid parity in reach by 2020 • However: what is grid parity and what are the cascade effects?


The future: Pricing range for larger systems in €/kW

2,200 to 2.500

• Cost reduction is accelerated compared to all 2008 scenarios • Cost levels anticipated by 2 to 3 years • Price impact from demand and supply balance to be seen


Future PV growth scenarios for Europe

• PV growth can reach up to 10,000 MW in Europe in 2010 • PV to become a multi-segment mainstream energy resource • PV growth potential until 2020 is enormous


Agenda


71 MWp 10 MWp 6.356 24.136

= Ground (> 980 kWp)

= Roof - Business (7 kWp ÷ 980 kWp) = Roof - residential (1 kWp ÷ 6 kWp)

Growth of the Photovoltaic Market in Italy 2006 - 2009

Number of PV plants

338 MWp 712 MWp 1.468 42.500

Source: GSE

Up-date May 2010


Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Source: GSE, update May 2010

PV installations as % of total

• Puglia region is single most important area for PV installations

• Leading macro-areas are still the North and the Centre of Italy

• Rise of the Southern Area is to happen in the next three years


Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Source: GSE, update May 2010

Thousands of units Capacity in MW


Photovoltaic Installations in Italy as of 2009 Share of module technology per region in % Source: GSE, update May 2010

Monocrystalline Polycrystalline Thin film


Is this the medium term growth path of PV in Italy ?

• potential for major growth in 2010 and 2011 • however new decree still to be issued

• tariffs per segments to be seen

Overall goal: create a stable and lasting growth momentum

< 6kWp

≥ 1 MWp

< 1 MWp

712 MW

Over

1,000 MW ca.

1,000 MW

ca.

1,000 MW

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Over

1,000 MW


How much can renewable energies grow in Italy?

Geothermal

Biomass

Wind

Solar

Hydro

5,5

7

6

Power generation in TWh from 2002 to 2008 and forecast 2020

≈ 100 TWh


Agenda


Increasing importance of Smart Grids:

a key enabler for distributed PV generation

Central and distributed resources

Smart equipments and power electronics

Central and distributed intelligence Seamless

integration of new applications

End user real time information and participation Multi-directional

‘flows’ Plug & Play

technologies


Smart Grids : Roadmap Enel 20-20-20

2010 2020

Smart Grids maturity level

ENEL DEPLOYMENT • Telegestore • Grid Automation • Work Force Mngm • Asset Management

EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY GRID INITIATIVE

2000

EU Frame Program 7 • ADDRESS • Grid4Vehicles ENEL PROJECTS • Smart Info, Domanda attiva, • Banda larga , E- Mobility

SMART GRIDS FULL ROLL-OUT

Renewable energy, DG, electric vehicles, electricity storage and aggregation

Management of end-use energy efficiency, aggregation, retail

Customers become aware and participate actively

Customers

Distribution Network

Level 2: Smart Distribution network and processes

Level 3: Smart Integration

Level 4: Smart Energy Management

SM

AR

T G

RID

S Fu

nct

ion

al le

vels

Level 1: Smart Pan-European Transmission network Transmission Network

Level 0: New generation technologies

Electricity generation

Level 5: Smart Customers

More automated medium voltage distribution networks with self healing capabilities. Monitored and controlled low voltage networks. IT supported monitoring process

Frame-Program 7: Pilots • Operative grids • Electrical and Hybrid vehicle infrastructures

2009 //

2015 2012


Outlook on Photovoltaic market

• Increasing share of renewables driven by Photovoltaics and Wind

• The potential of Photovoltaic power is enormous because: • Variety of technologies • Important efficiency and productivity improvements still ahead • Proximity to demand • Variety of solutions and full architectural integration

• Increasing competitiveness of all renewables

• Major goals of energy policy : • provide investment security • create a stable and sustainable growth momentum

• Power system flexibility requirements increase

The Solar Future DE - Ingmar Wilhelm "Can solar PV compete with grid energy in Italy by 2013?"

Technology

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