The Euro Banking System an ongoing "normal"accident

**********************************************************************************

- 2015

- :

-:

/ ( ):

.

Linda Tavlin

Geopolitics . Geopolitics.

Geopolitics & Daily News Magazine

Geopolitics.com.gr all rights reserved 2015 Page 1

Editorial

,

,

, .

Spiegel, ,

, .

, , 2017,

,

. ,

, ,

, .

.

2015

, . 2015

.

,

,

.

.

.



.

,

,

, .

, , ,

.

(

- ) .

.

.

, Podemos

, Ciudadanos. ,,

.

,

. ,,

. ,

.

Charlie Hebdo

.

.

.

,

.

.

.

.

, , .

,

. ,



,

.

, ,

, ,

.

, , ,

.

, , .

.

, ,

.

, , .

,

.

.

.

,

,

23 . ,

1939:

,

,

,



- .. ........................................... 5

vs . .......................................................................................... 10

11 ................................................. 15

........................................................................... 29

! ................................................................................................................. 32

K: ................................................................................................. 36

: 20 ................................................................................................ 40

.............................................................. 51

............................................................................................ 55

The European Project and the EU Ecosystem ............................................................................ 70

The Euro Banking System a high Risk Business ....................................................................... 81

From Versailles to WWII, the political liberties and economic developments .......................... 92

Communicating Risks after Unexpected Events in Diminishing Economies ........................... 95

Information and Intelligence overflow. Are we to keep them all? .............................................. 98



IISCA Sec Group

- .. .

. . , . , , .

, , 20 ( 1907-1917) . , , 21 G. Bush jr. . , (. ) (. , , ). - , , . - .



, , . , , , , , . , , , , (.. ).

, ( ) , . , , . , , , . ( .. , ,

). , , , . , . , (.. ) , , , , / . , , . (, , ) , . .



, , - . (.. ). 1930 . , . , . . , . 1821 , ( ), , , ( ) . , , ; , . ( ) .

. , , . Stratfor , .. .



we are the world ruler, we decide what will take place. . . . 6 ; , , ; .. , . , . , , . , , , . . , , .. .. . . . , , , , .. ( ). ( ), , . .

, , , 10 , ( /). , , , .. , , ( coercion politics ) .

, , , , , , , .



. .. , . . , , . .

. . Maryland (START) University, USA Leiden University, Holland Tokyo . , Tel Aviv. IISCA security group. .



Email: [email protected]

vs . ,

, . . , , . , , . o Financial Times o Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman. , Chandler , , , . , , . , .

, Chandler . ( 1931 Brown Brothers & Co, 1818, Harriman Brothers & Co. ) . , , . BBH, , , , , , , .

photo credit: nationalpride.files.wordpress.com



, . Brzezinski . (LNG) , . , , . .

, , , .,, , , ,

. , Angela Merkel Donald Tusk Barack Obama . ( ). , . , o Tusk Grexit. Angela Merkel , . erkel , , Schauble -.



. , . . (2009 - 2010), , , , Lyndon Johnson Graduate School of Public Affairs , , Wolfgang Schuble. eurogroups . James Galbraith, John Kenneth Galbraith, . Galbraith , Levy, , , . New York Times Wall Street Journal, . , . , DW o Galbraith. , / , , , .

. , , . , , . ' , - . '

. , State Department : Guardian o Paul Mason. O ason , . , , . . , ' , . (), "" , Alexander Dugin. O Dugin Putin( ) Victoria Nuland.



Grexit Graccident ( ), . editorial FT: . . . , , , , . , . , . . Washington Post , , ! ,, , . . . , . , Victoria Nuland, , TASS, 8 Vladimir Putin. , , : , , , , , , , , - , , .

- , . .



- Washington Post .--: radio1d.gr , 1953, 20 , , 1945, . . , , . , , , , , ., , . , Putin Brics. , . , . - . :

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f98c73b6-b761-11e4-981d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3Vyu4YiSg http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2015/03/conclusions-energy-european-council-march-2015/

http://www.geopolitics.com.gr/2015/03/blog-post_73.html http://www.geopolitics.com.gr/2015/03/blog-post_77.html

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/15/poet-goethe-solution-germany-greece-standoff http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/02/19/germanys-army-is-so-under-equipped-that-it-used-

broomsticks-instead-of-machine-guns/ http://www.geopolitics.com.gr/2015/03/blog-post_222.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/harold-meyerson-in-greek-crisis-germany-should-learn-from-its-fiscal-past/2015/01/28/2d25bbd4-a721-11e4-a7c2-03d37af98440_story.html



11

11 , . , , . , .

. , .

. , . , , , . .

, , , .

( + ) , , , , , ( /) , , , ( ) /. ' 1.

1www.oxforddictionaries.com.



( ) ( ). , , . (, , , , ). G8, , , , 2.

, ( ). , : , , , . 2928/2001 , , , , , , , , ..3. - , - , , , . ( :2003).

State Department, . , , :

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4

5. , . , . . ,

2 , : , , , 2006. 3http://www.bbc.co.uk/greek/local/030328_17nspecial4.shtml. . 2928/01, 17 . 4 , : ....., http://www.state.gov/j/ct/ State Department . 5 : Forum on crime and society, volume 4, December 2004, United Nations, p.4.



. . 6.

, . , , istihad intihar . 7.

, 8 , ISIS9.

, 10. . . . ()11 . 5 . .. 12. (4 . ..). De Civitate Dei13 , (1 . .). . , . , Summa Theologicae (1265 1274 ..) , .

6 , , , 2006, .174 7 , o.. 8 . , , 19 1995 . 9 Isis Independent, Patrick Cockburn : Who are ISIS? The rise of the Islamic State In Irag and the Levant, www.independent.co.uk. 10http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/just-war. 11 20-21, , ... , . , . 12 , , www. Academia.edu, 2008, . 3. 13De Civitate Dei ( , 5 .. (: www. Wikipedia.com).



, 17 14. (18 ) , 15. , . , , , 16. , , . ( , .) ( ) 17. Michael Walzer, 18. . . ' , jus in bello19, . , , , , , 20.

. . :

1. (Just cause)

, . . ( ) 21.

14www.Chomskyinfo/talks/20060420.htm 15.. 16 , Carl von Clausewitz , , . 54 .. . , . www. Geetha.mil.gr : Carl Von Clausewitz. ; 17 , , , . , , . 40, 1992. 18Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars, The moral equality of soldiers, (preview from www. Acadcemia.edu 19Michael Walzer, Just and Unjust Wars ..., .. 20 Just and Unjust Wars 4 , . 21Richard Norman, Ethics, killing and War, Duke University Press, 1997, .. 129 -131.



. , , . , , , 22. , . , . ( ), .

2. (Legal authority)

, . , , , . , , . , , . , .

3. (Right intentions)

( ) 23. . (jus in bello) . , , , .

4. (Probability of success)

, . , , 24. . , 25.

;

;

, , 1940, 1941, -;

,

22.. 23William Boyles, Right intention is the essence of a just war, www.honors.olemiss.edu 24Journal of Military Ethics, Special issue, The just war tradition and the crisis of jus ad bellum, volume 10, Issue 3, 2011 www.plato.stanford.edu/entries/war . 25 http://www.warandstrategy.gr/theoria-polemou/22-i-ithiki-tou-polemou.



; , , , , .

, , . , , . , , , .

, 26. , . , , , .

5. (Proportionality)

, 27. , 28. , , . , , . , 480 .. , 499 .. , , 29.

;

Howard Zinn 30. :

1. , , . . , ,

26 , . War and Strategy, 19 2014, http://www.warandstrategy.gr/. 27http://www.iep.utm.edu/justwar, the just war theory. 28Soshana Bryen, The Doctrine of Proportionality, : http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4462/proportionality-doctrine. 29 Michael Walzer, : http://www.chomsky.info/articles/20060509.htm. 30Howard Zinn, , Scripta, 2003, . 29.



.

2. , . , . , . , , 31.

3.

(

)

32.

, .

ISIS33

.

4.

34.

,

35.

5. ,

.

36.

37

31 . 2006/2200 , www. Europarl. Europa.eu. 32 : ,www.dikonomia.gr. 33The economist, Islamic state, Turkey and Syrias Kurds: Marky relations, 22 September 2014. 34Susan G. Chesser, Afganistan Casualties: Military Forces and Civilians, Congressional Research Service, 6 December 2012. 35 , 2007 , , ( www.curia.gr / ). 36 CIA , , ( www.protagon.gr). 37 , : ; http://pacific.jour.auth.gr/emmeis/?p=2136.



,

38.

6. , , . (2 1990 28 1991).

, , 39 40.

. .

7. ,

. , , ,

, :

.

TIME

41.

!!!!.

60

38 Nicolas J.S. Davies (Global Research Centre for Research on Globalization) : Washingtons Global War on Terrorism Violence, war and Instability in an Arc of Terror , . 39Howard Zinn, ....., .31. 40 , ISIS , , 5 ( - www.naftemporiki.gr). 41TIME Magazine, Michael Elliott, The age of miracles, .25 27.

11 2010 . 34 .



70, .

8.

,

42.

9.

11

2001,

,

USA

PATRIOT ACT 2001.

.

,

43.

10. , , , . , , , . , , , , 44.

11.

Howard Zinn .

,

45;

42Jeff Mcmahan, Unjust war, http://philosophyfaculty.ucsd.edu/. 43 , .....,.627. 44 , , 17 . , . , , 2011, . 513 -562, www.academia.edu. 45Howard Zinn, .....,.41.

, , '60



,

.

12.

, Robert Jackson, :

46.

13. ,

,

. ,

,

.

:

,

, , o ,

47.

, ( ...) . 11/9 , ... , . , (www.cfr.com) The global regime for Terrorism ( : ), 19 2013.

1. ... (30) ( ...) . .

2. ... . , , AIDS,

46http://www.chomsky.info/articles/20060509.htm. 47, 5 , . 84-116.



... , .

3. ( ) . . , , .

4. ... . . . .

5. ... .1267, 15 1999, . , , . ,

6. . 2014, , , . .

( ) , , .

1. . , 48.

48 www.State.gov.com National Strategy for Combating Terrorism.



2. H . , . , , .

3. Washington Post 287 530 , 11/9 49.

, 50 51. , 52.

4. , ,

,

.

53.

5.

,

,

,

,

49Brad Plumer, Americas staggering defence budget, in charts, www.Washingtonpost.com , 7-1-2013. 50Institute for economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2014, Measuring and understanding the impact of terrorism. 51Gareth Evans, The Global Response to Terrorism, International Crisis Group, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 27 September 2005. 52 Foreign Affairs What really happened, Solving the cold wars cold cases, July/August 2014, . CIA , , . 53 11 , ; ( , 21-10-2001)

2 , : Washington Post



, ,

, .

6.

54.

.

7.

55.

.

8. , 56,

,

(

)

.

9. 11

,

, ,

, 57.

. ,

.

11 2001. - . , . , , .

54 Haviland Smith, The U.S. response to terrosism, www.Unc.edu 55 ( ..), , , , 8 , 1 , , 11-13/11/2008 . , , Richard Perle Newsmax 5-2-2015. 56 . 57 Adam Goldman, The hidden history of the CIAs prison in Poland, The Washington Post, 23-1-2014



, , , , , , . , .

1. ,

2. & , , , .

, , . 40, 1992

3. , : ,

, 2005

4. , , . , 2006

5. Zinn Howard, , . Scripta, 2003

6. , Carl von Clausewitz ,

7. , , 17

. , . , , 2011

8. ( ..), , , , 8 , 1

, , 11-13/11/2008

9. , . War and Strategy, 19 2014

10. , Carl Von Clausewitz.

, 2010

11. , , 2008

1. Boyles William, Right intention is the essence of a just war, www.honors.olemiss.edu 2. Chesser G. Susan, Afganistan Casualties: Military Forces and Civilians, Congressional Research Service, 2012

3. Evans Gareth , The Global Response to Terrorism, International Crisis Group, University of New South Wales, Sydney, 27 September 2005

4. Goldman Adam, The hidden history of the CIAs prison in Poland, The Washington Post, 23-1-2014 5. Institute for economics and Peace, Global Terrorism Index 2014, Measuring and understanding the impact of

terrorism,2014

6. Norman Richard, Ethics, killing and War, Duke University Press, 1997

7. Pape . Robert and Feldman U. James, Cutting the fuse. The explosion of Global Suicide Terrorism and how to stop it, London 2010

8. Walzer Michael, Just and Unjust Wars, The moral equality of soldiers, (preview from www. Acadcemia.edu

, , . , . , . , , .



. .

1882 , 1839, (1878) , 1882, Deutsche Bank, , [1] ( 1955) & , ( ) , , ( ), , 1955, , - 1956 , , , ,

[2] 74 , . , , . ,

() "" , status quo [3]



, , - 19 , ( ), , , , . ( ) , , , , ( ), . , , (, ) , , , . , 20 21 , , . , , ( ) , . , , . ( ) ( ) , , , ( ) , , , ,

. , , , , , . National Intelligence Council (NIC) , 2000, 2015, CIA :



, , . , . [] , . , , , . , , , [4], , ( ) , , () , , . , , , , , , . , , , , , [4], ( ) , .. , [5] ( ) , . [1] .. , [2] T. Judt Postwar A history of Europe since 1945 [3] . ' [4] N. Hertz The debt threat. How debt is destroying the developing world [5] J.M. Keynes The economic consequences of the peace

1968. 1986 24 . 22 , , , 1994 , . , , workshops , & , , , Logistics .. . , , . 2012 2012 2015, .



. . [email protected]

! !

, , , , . , . , , 1939 ( 1933-1939).

, 58, . , , , , , : , , , , . , , , , , , , .. ,

. , , , 1939-1945.

, : , , , . T . , , , , , , , , . , , 1.106.000 ( 13,5% ), , , !

58 ., . , , 2004.

1939.



, , . , . , , , . , , , ! , , , 1/3 ( ), , .

, ,

. , , 4 15 1943, , 280 .

. Freikorps 15.1.1919, , . , .

, 1943, , . , 98 1 ( ) , , , , . : .. ( ) , , , ! , , , , ! .



, , , . , , . ; , , , ; : !

,

! , , : , , , !

,

, , , ! , , , , - . , , ( 1959) , , .

,

. , , . , ! , 54.000 : .. 1959-1960 25 , ! , , , : 1953, , , , , , ! , .



, , , , , , . ZDF, , , ! Distomo , , !

. , & , (MSc) ( ) . . (... ..) . , . 2001 , , , . , . . , (12-16 2011) , .



Email: [email protected]

K: , 2015

. , , , , . , , (SIPRI). .

2015 ( ). Xi Jinping Vladimir Putin, , , 400 30 . , , Gazprom . , , , Putin 2014.

BRICS, , ( - 2014 72 ), , , , . , , .

, 21 - Barack Obama Vladimir Putin, . , , 40 . 40 ' , , . Xi Jinping arshall . Marshall, ' .



Xi Jinping . , , . , 40 50 -Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). . (AIIB), . , 2014, Fortaleza BRICS 100 . , BRICS (AIIB) , . , . ,Wolfgang Schuble , , Ma Kai, AIIB. , , . , Lou Jiwei . , , . , Pierre Gramegna, , , , , .

Jack Lew Christine Lagarde, , . 2018 , , Lagarde. , Lew

, , Nathan Sheets .



, . - 2014 40 , , . , . , , , . MegaFon Norilsk Nickel . , Occupy Central

, . - , . Barack Obama . , , . , ( ) , , . , , .

. Angela Merkel . Aleksandar Vucic .



, ( COSCO ) .. 3 , /

. . 2015 , , , . . Xi Jinping Mao Tse-tung, . , . , 2017. , Golden Boys . . Pirelli ChemChina. ChemChina 2004 , , , 36 . .H Ren Jianxin, . , 2015, . , 2015 .

. , . , Hellenic Nexus ,



Geopolitics

: 20 Leonardo da Vinci . 2010. To 1979 Mad Max: .

. . , 15 2015, , , , . 2015. . , . , . Khawaja Muhammad Asif, , , .



. . , , , . , ( 4.500 , , , Lagash Umma, . ) . 50 5 . Kofi Annan, 2010 .

, 750 . 2.000 1.800 . 22 , ( , 1992) , , , , , , , . , , , . UNICEF : - 1/6 , 1 , . -1,1 . -2,5 . -400.000.000 , 1/5 , . -5 , -10 . -300 ' ( .) - 80% .



, , . . , , 3 . , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 200 . : . , , 5 . , "" , .(. , , ).

G20-G7, , , . Forum, , . , , .



, . , , , . 20%. , , , , , , . Stimson Centre Russell Stiklor : . Stiklor , , , . , . , , , . 2002 , , .

, . , - - , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . .



, Stiklor. Lamont Doherty Columbia University , Richard Singer , (PNAS) , New York Times, Science New Scientist. , , .

, . Assad (, , ..), . . , , Singer.

, . , , . ( - ), 10.000 12.000 , 1900 1 1,2 , 10% . 1950, 1980 1990, , 2006 - 2010, . , 4 1950 22 . Assad , . , , , , , , , . , . 1,5 . , .

. , 4.200 , , . . 3 .. .

, . , , .



, 1.000 . , , , .

, . ,

, , , , . , , , , .

, , . WWF 2012, (Global Footprint Network), 1966-2007 1,5 .



. , 7% . , , The Nature, . 80% , , . , , : . , , . , . '' '' . , . Coca Cola wealthartisan.com : . . Coca-Cola ; , Coca-Cola . : Pepsi, Perrier, Evian, Naya, Poland Spring, Vivendi-Generale des eaux, Suez-Lyonnaise des eaux, Danone, International Waters Ltd of London, IWL, Nestle, Bechtel, Monsanto Dow Chemical Company, Procter & Gamble co General Electric! Goldman Sachs! 90% . , , . , ' . " ", , 2000, , , 2009, , . 1998 138 . , . , , SEMAPA. Cochabamba, , , . , , . , 2000, , Cochabamba , 30.000 , . , 1 100 . , .



2000 ( 17) , James Wolfensohn. Nestle, Peter Brabeck 2013 , We Feed the World. Nestle . Brabeck , . , . . , . , , , . , , .

Nestle , , . 1977. Nestle ( Nestle) . Nestle . , , .

. , . , . . , . , , 95% 1/3 .

. . . . , , , . , , Maquiladora , Coca-Cola Pepsi , . . , , . 1985 , Veolia Suez, 2008 , , , . 1999 . , , . , ,



1990, , , . ... . 1980 1990 , . , , , . , . , .... : http://www.geopolitics.com.gr/2015/02/blog-post_43.html http://www.geopolitics.com.gr/2015/01/global-risk-2015.html http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/07/california-drought-farmers-drilling-groundwater-environment http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/coming-water-wars http://www.stimson.org/spotlight/how-to-win-the-next-mideast-war-over-water/ http://mashable.com/2015/03/02/global-warming-syria-civil-war/ http://www.tovima.gr/science/technology-planet/article/?aid=575683 http://www.academia.edu/5140378/WATER_WARS_OBSCURING_OPPORTUNITIES?login=&email_was_taken=true http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/08/how-water-shortages-lead-food-crises-conflicts http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/11/california-drought-water-conservation http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/us-india-climatechange-water-idUSKBN0L71A420150203



:

. . , Distinguished Research Professor, , Audencia Nantes School of Management Financial Engineering and Banking Society

, , . , . 2014 ( ), 17 , 3,5 , , . , , 2004 18 11,7 11 . 2009 16 14,9 15 2013 16 , 17,9 19 . 93%, . , 25-30% . , , . 2013 2014 . 2014 27,8% 2013 252 2013, 194 . . 2009 . , 2009 ... .



2012 , ... 16,4%. 2004 - 2013, , 1 ... , , . 1: 2004-2013

... (%)

. (%)

(. )

(.)

()

2004 16,30 18,20 10,40 11,70 882

2005 17,60 19,50 10,70 14,40 746

2006 17,80 19,80 11,40 15,20 746

2007 17,50 19,40 11,30 16,20 700

2008 16,80 18,70 11,60 15,90 730

2009 15,90 17,70 10,40 14,90 697

2010 16,00 17,80 9,60 15,00 640

2011 15,80 17,60 10,50 16,40 639

2012 16,40 18,30 10,00 15,50 646

2013 16,30 18,20 11,70 17,90 653

... , 2007-2009. 2009 ... , 2012 , 16,4%

. , 2006 2009 , 2009 2011 17,7% 17,6% . 2012, , 18,3% , (..: 19,8%, 2006 ).

, , 2012, ... . , , . 2004 2008 11,6 , 2009 10,4



. 2010, , , 9,6 . , , , 2013, 2004-2013, 11,7 . , 2004-2013, 2004 , 11,7 . , 2009 14,9 , 2010 (15 ). 2011 1,4 2012 , 2013 17,9 . , . 2010, 46,8%.

, 60% 2,18. .

, 2009 . , 2010 ,

, . 1 , . , 2004 882 , 2009 697 , 2011 639 , 2013 653 .

) , . :



. . . . , , , . ,

.

Constantin Zopounidis is the Director of the Financial Engineering Laboratory. Prof. Zopounidis received his Doctorat D'Etat (1986) in management science, a D.E.A. (1982) in financial management from the University of Paris-IX Dauphine and a B.A. in

Business Administration from the University of Macedonia. Prof. Zopounidis has been with the Dept. of Production Engineering and Management of the Technical University of Crete, since 1987 and served as Chairman of the Department during the period

2001-2005. Prof. Zopounidis is elected member of the Royal Academy of Economc and Finance Sciences of Spain and Distinguished Research Professor at Audencia Group, Nantes School of Management.



2007. . (International Financial Architecture IFA) Elson (Elson, 2011). IFA , Eichengreen, , (Eichengreen, 2011). , , , ,

. Eichengreen, . . (IFA), , , . IFA .

, , . , . , , (, 2011). , . , , , (, 2011). IFA .



(New International Financial Architecture NIFA), , Bretton Woods 1971. , ( IMF), , ( WTO), ( BIS), (), G7 G20, . . : . , , . 1990 , . . Bretton Woods 80 , . Bretton Woods . , . , . , , . . . , .



, . , () . . , . . . - , . . , , . (Stiglitz, 2003:210-211) , Bretton Woods , ; (Stiglitz, 2003: 192-193) J. Stiglitz (2003:194-196) , . . ( ) .

, . 1990 , , , .



. ; 1970-1980, 1970, 1992-1993 1994-1995. . , . . (Gilpin 2002: 319-331) ; ; . . . , Paul Kindleberger Susan Strange, Tobin . . 1999 G20 Financial Stability Forum. To G20 . G7 1999 . 40 . , .

: ) , ) ) . (, , 2005:220)



. 2007 1929. 90 , . , .

, , . : . . . ( ) ' . . , . G7 1999, . (Gilpin, 2007:338-339) . . , , . . . 1990 100% 60% . (, 2010:290) () . . .



. 50% . (,2010:294) , (rating agencies) , . . , . subprimes 2007 . 95%, Standard and Poors, Moodys Fitch Ratings. (, 2010:324)

. . (, ..) ,

. 2010 1/3 . (Shaxson, 2011:31-32) 2007 . (too big to fail). (Shaxson, 2011:58-59) , , . . 2007 , . , 1980, , , .



, . hedge funds. , . 2007 80 . , . 80 . 2007. . FED . subprimes 1.300 , , (, 2010:317) ( ) , . , . ( ) . . , , . , , . 2000-2007 . (, 2010:319-323) , 1929. , , . . ; , , , ; , ;



Eichengreen (2011: 4) . Lehman Brothers . . . , . , . 40 . . . . G20. .

subprimes , .

. . 500 ! (, 2009:362) 2007 . . . . :



1) . ( ) . , . 2010 (Executive Board) (New Arrangements to Borrow-) . G20 2009 333,5 SDR (500 ) 217,4 . SDR (330 ) . (, 2010:3-4) 2) . 2010 Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) fund . Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF) . 150% quota . (, 2010:4-5) 3) (Flexible Credit Line) . , . (IMF, 2010) 4) 2011 . (Precautionary Credit Line) , . 2011 .(ECB) 5) G20 . (, 2010:7) . G20 . . . ( , , ) . / Dominique Strauss-ahn . .



2007 (IFA) . IFA , G20. 2009 G20 .

IFA : ) , ) , , ) (too big to fail) , , ) , ) shadow banking system. (Elson, 2008:177) - IFA 2007 : ) , ) , , ) , , ) shadow banking system, too big to fail, ) , , , )



. (Elson, 2008:178) - . G20 . . G7 G20 ; ; quotas . . . , ; . . , , . . ; , , . . . . 2007 . Jacques Attali (2011:190) , , , . . . . . (Attali, 2011:190-193) Bancor John Maynard Keynes to 1944 ,



.

Thomas Piketty, 21 (2014:682-699) , , , , Piketty . 15% . . , . , , , , , . 2007 , . . G20 ESM . . 2010 . (FSB). FSB , . . , . ; . too big to fail; (Eichengreen, 2011:3) . , . , Dodd-Frank , . .



. (Eichengreen, 2011:3)

; ; . . , Piketty (2014:646-654), , . status quo . .

2008 , . , , 1980 , , .

, .

. . , , ( ) , .



: Attali, J. (2010), 10 ; : , : Gilpin, R. (2007), . , :. , . (2011), : , : Elson, A. (2011), Governing Global Finance: The evolution and reform of International Financial Architecture, USA: Palgrave

Macmillan Piketty, T. (2014), 21 , : , . (2009), , :. Shaxon, N. (2011), Offshore , : . Stiglitz, J. (2003), , , : . , ., , . (2006), , : ECB, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/tasks/international/financialarchitecture/html/index.el.html Eichengreen, B. (2011), Reforming the International Financial

Architecture, http://eml.berkeley.edu/~eichengr/Reforming_Intl_Arch_2011_Ed.pdf G20, (2008), Declaration summit on financial markets and the world economy Washington, November 15 https://g20.org/about-

g20/past-summits/2008-washington G20, (2009a), London Summit Leaders Statement, 2 April https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2009-london/ G20, (2009b), Pittsburg Leaders' Statement: Leaders statement the Pittsburgh summit, September 24 25 https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2009-pittsburgh/

G20, (2010a), Toronto Declaration : The G-20 Toronto summit declaration, June 26 27, https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2009-pittsburgh/

G20, (2010b), Seoul Leaders' Declaration: The G20 Seoul Summit leaders declaration, November 11 12, https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2010-seoul/

G20, (2011), Cannes Leaders' Declaration: Cannes summit final declaration https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2011-cannes/

G20, (2012), Los Cabos Leaders' Declaration, 18-19 June, https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2012-los-cabos/ G20, (2013), Saint Petersburg Leaders' Declaration, 5-6 September https://g20.org/about-g20/past-summits/2013-st-

petersburg/ IMF, (2010), - , 28 https://www.imf.org/external/lang/Greek/np/exr/facts/changingg.htm

, . (2010), , http://www.isminipatta.gr/Greek.html

, & . . E



Written by T. Pitikaris ,Sc, MSc Financial Analyst PhD candidate of

Macroeconomics

Written by N. Kanelos Financial Analyst

The European Project and the EU Ecosystem

Providence has not created mankind entirely independent or entirely free. It is true that around every man a fatal circle is traced, beyond which he cannot pass; but within the wide verge of that circle he is powerful and free: as it is with man, so with communities. The nations of our time cannot prevent the conditions of men from becoming equal; but it depends upon themselves whether the principle of equality is to lead them to servitude or freedom, to knowledge or barbarism,

to prosperity or to wretchedness

--Alexis de Tocqueville

As it is known, any type of human organization, from a family to a community and from a nation to a coalition of nations, develops its own culture. In accordance, from the smallest family business up to multinational agencies operating in many countries and different time zones, each corporation develops its own unique identity, its own culture. The latter was described by (McDonough and Braungart 2010, Needle 2010) as: the way that we do things here and The organizational culture it's hard to be explained to outsiders. It is an asset accumulated and distributed by mentoring for a long time, long enough before you know just how the things to work all around here. So, in order to evaluate or at least to try to evaluate an institution, one must first understand its organizational culture. Organizational culture may be defined as the principles that govern the actions and reactions taken by

an organization, which are derived by its core values; it is the hardcore logic of organization that arranges the behavior of the people, it is the established mentality that allows or prevents innovative actions and plans, it is the strategy behind every action taken etc. Thus, by nature, organizational culture is a unique characteristic of every organization, a characteristic that the organization develops over time and that constitutes its own identity (Modaff, DeWine et al. 2008). And alongside with organizational behavior, they both constitute the systemic entity that we call organization. But as it happens to every social structure, this culture does not come out of the blue: it reflects the accumulated knowledge that the organization has earned over time and which the organizations elite (leaders) considers important enough to pass on to the next generation, so that lessons learned through hard work may become an asset in decision making process. Thus, culture is a piece of wisdom that is passed onto the next generation. Last but not least, culture is what we really think when no one is looking in our hearts and minds; as individuals we have different priorities and principals and as humans, we are subject to human nature that determines how we behave when no one is watching - are we going to eat the forbidden apple? Much alike, an organization embodies mindsets in terms of a value system. This system is used to inspire future mindsets. It is a great competitive disadvantage for the organization when one may regard the culture of the organization he is working at as alien to his/her department, institution, country mindset(T.Pitikaris 2014).

Mentality Even though cultural meanings and values prevail in meetings, and to a large extent in the organization as a whole, there are, alternative orientations. there are just numbered the organizations that are based on a coherent and easily ranked set of



values and ideas. What is expressed during the assemblies and meetings and parliamentary sessions does, however, reveal of important elements of the true nature and directions around the political , institutional, and economic AGORA; by implicated, the nature of the organization, and the nature of

the policymakers in the sector themselves: the creation of the customers, implies a particular self-construction. The shared meanings of the consumers/citizens/businesses imply a certain point of view for all the activities and for all the people that are to be served by them: proposing the suitable stuff calls for a specific mentality: a particular organizational culture OPERATIONAL BEHAVIOUR The organizational culture is the part of Business Administration which describes the psychology, behavior, experiences, beliefs and values of a company. It is actually a set of values and norms which are shared across individuals and departments within the enterprise and it regulates the interaction between each member of the organization(Holmes, Schnurr et al. 2007). This process is based on personal beliefs, in values and rules, such as the values associated with time, money and other people. The outgoing result influences the internal culture and other factors such as

organizational behaviors. These values that the employees adapt as the appropriate behavior patterns, are essential in order to achieve business goals(Camerer 1999, Holmes, Schnurr et al. 2007) THE FEAR OF CHANGE

Our time is characterized by the rapid technological development. The entrance and the extended use of IT technologies in corporate culture have significant impact. The ease of access to the information

asset of the organization and the ability to archive more securely, enabled users to exploit new media in order to improve the way that the run every day work and transformed the decision making process (Lai and Turban 2008). It has been noticed that most of the attempts to introduce a new technology inside an organization came down to a failure. The most common reason for these failures was the devaluation of the importance of modernization of the organizational culture(Zammuto and O'Connor 1992). Another

important reason was that the employees denied and feared any doctrinal change since they believed that the new information system would generate new requirements and professional standards(Martin 2009). Even though the fears of the staff are in most cases unfounded, it is certain that the implementation of an information system will inevitably cause some changes in their daily work habits and it will challenge the shared beliefs and values, that have been established for several years and which, up

until now, make up the existing culture(Rogers 1975). BUSINESS ECOSYSTEM Ecosystem is a term that we first met in sciences studying life. Biology tried to discover the correlations between the micro and macro environment and has used the term ecosystem to describe the associations that are developed between entities that interact with each other (direct or indirect).

Later, in 1938, Moore extended the use of this term in economy: An economic community supported by a foundation of interacting organizations and individualsthe organisms of the business world. This economic community produces goods and services of value to customers, who are themselves members of the ecosystem. The member organizations also include suppliers, lead producers, competitors, and other stakeholders. Over time, they co-evolve and their capabilities and roles change. Companies holding leadership roles may change over time, but the function of ecosystem leader is valued by the community, because it enables members to move towards shared visions, to align their investments and to find mutually supportive roles, set by one or more central companies. Thus, since the organizational culture of corporations dictate their behavior, it is easily understood that it directly affects the ecosystem dynamics.



Figure 2: A simplified representation of an Economic Ecosystem. Red lines represent cash flows, blue lines value/products and black lines the mutual forces which are developing between competitors. The European Union Ecosystem There is a great confusion over what EU is; Mass Media tend to simulate Europe with EU and in most EU countries, Eurozone with EU. But the truth is that EU is just a group of 28 countries within European Continent while Eurozone is a just subset of 19 EU member states. (Piris 2010) (Christiansen and Reh 2009, Eubusiness 2011)

custommers

State

compettitorsSupliers

corporations

1. Europe Map



Figure 2 European Union (EU)

Figure 3 Eurozone (EZ) Eurozone is a quite interesting ecosystem that lies within the larger ecosystem of the European Union. European Union has its own timeline -that is well-known- but most significantly it consists a quite important ecosystem within the Global Economic/Military/Political Ecosystem (a big player in according to Games Theory terminology).



At the core of EU ecosystem we may identify the following institutions: The European Commission (policymaker, governor, guardian of EU laws, international represent of the Union, etc.),

the European Court of Justice, which along with the European Court of Human Rights (non EU institution) and the nations courts exercise the judiciary power within the EU and the EU Council and Parliament that share the final say on new EU laws proposed by the Commission. The Council (the assembly of EU Leaders), along with the representatives, manages major EU management issues and provides the guidelines to European Commission on policy making. Moreover, along with the European Parliament, it issues secondary law (directives) and Regulations, it decides (with delegation with the parliament if it is needed) on EU president proposals over EU Budgets (7 year planning) and has the power to initiate the change of EU fundamental Law. The Permanent Representatives Committee or Coreper (Article 240 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union TFEU) is responsible for preparing the work of the Council of the European Union (Agenda). The body consists of representatives from the Member States with the rank of Member States ambassadors to the European Union and is chaired by the Member State which holds the Council Presidency. Coreper occupies a pivotal position in the Community decision-making system, in which it is both a forum for dialogue (among the Permanent Representatives and between them and their respective national capitals) and a means of political control (guidance and supervision of the work of the expert groups). It thus carries out preliminary scrutiny of the dossiers on the Council agenda (proposals and drafts for acts tabled by the Commission). It seeks to reach agreement at its own level on each dossier, failing which it may suggest guidelines, options or suggested solutions to the Council. The agendas for Council meetings reflect the progress made in Coreper. They consist of: (a) items to be approved without discussion following agreement within Coreper and (b) items for discussion.

Coreper works in two configurations: Coreper I, consisting of the deputy permanent representatives, deals with technical matters. Coreper II, consisting of the ambassadors, deals with political, commercial, economic or

institutional matters. Coreper deals with all areas of the Council's work apart from agricultural issues, for which Agriculture Council dossiers are prepared by the Special Committee on Agriculture (SCA). When the Council sets up a special committee, such as the Political and Security Committee (PSC) for the CFSP or the Employment Committee for the field of employment, these operate with due regard for Coreper's prerogatives.

European Commission

European Court of Justice

European Parliament

Council

Cooper



The European Parliament (EP) is elected every 5 years. Each Member State is represented on the basis of its population but there is a minimum threshold in order to ensure an essence of equality (not less

than 6 Parliament Members) Germany has a relative majority within EP electing 96 MEPs out of 751. Even though the MEPs are elected under a political party or as individuals in their home country, but in Parliament are organized into seven different parliamentary groups, including thirty non-attached members known as non-inscrits. The European Parliament has some powers among them: the approval of the president of EU Communion and the EU Commission as a whole (motion of confidence), has the power to reject the EU Budget that is proposed by the Council (at these case a mediators talk is initiated in order for a compromise to be reached), it has the power to examine the Commissioners and the Commission in parliamentary sessions and along with the Council and/or the Commission, they issue the regulations and the directives that govern the EU matters. With the set of six pack/two pack legislation, EU Parliament took greater power on controlling the action of EU Institutions in times of necessity. Furthermore, according to Lisbon Treaty (still not applicable) the EU parliament has close cooperation with the national Parliaments of each Member State.

Not elected but powerful the European Institutions and Directorate-General (DGs) On top of EU institutions (for the purposes of these article) we may find the European Statistics Agency (Eurostat) Eurostat which is a Directore-General (DG) of the European Commission located in Luxembourg. Its main responsibilities are to provide statistical information to the institutions of the European Union and to promote the harmonization of statistical methods across the member states and candidate countries for accession as well as EFTA countries. The national statistical institutions which actively cooperate with Eurostat are summarized under the concept of the European Statistical System. The Current Statistical Framework is the European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA 2010) The president of the Union is not elected by the people but by the Council, he has extended powers as he/she withholds what was granted to member states under the six months rotation presidential

system (Six months for each member state). For instance he may arrange the Councils Agenda, or call emergency assemblies of EU Council. Working Groups For small groups of researchers interested in a specific Operational Research topic, EURO provides an organizational framework in the form of the EURO Working Groups. These Groups are a very important part of EURO. They provide a forum for promoting research in the areas represented by EURO. Active EURO Working Groups meet at least once a year where the members exchange ideas, experiences and research results, and support each other in research work. In addition to their annual meetings, the groups also have other ways of working; for example they organize sessions in conferences, publish feature issues of the European Journal of Operational Research or other OR journals, and organize conferences or seminars. (EURO 2013)

EURO Working Group for Commodities and Financial Modelling The EURO Working Group for Commodities and Financial Modelling was founded in September 1986 in Lisbon. The primary field of interest for the Working Group can be described as "financial models that help to solve problems faced by financial decision makers in the firm, intermediaries and the investment community".

The main aims of the EWGCFM are:



Providing an international forum for exchange of information and experience on financial

modelling

Encouraging research in financial modelling (new techniques, methodologies, empirical studies,

software, etc.)

Stimulating and strengthening the interaction between financial economic theory and the

practice of financial decision making

Cooperating and exchanging information with other universities and financial institutions

throughout Europe.(Sorini 2011)

Figure 4 EU Ecosystem Eurozone Ecosystem

On the Core or European Union one may find the 19 members states of Eurozone. These 19 member states consist a special Ecosystem operating the following institutions:

The European Central Bank (ECB): Is the Central Bank of the Eurozone. The ECB is the single

player on monetary management of Eurozone. Its members are the National Central Banks of

the Member States that have as currency the Euro. The Bank has a president elected for 7

years and the top managerial work is carried out by two bodies the Executive Board (5

Members) and the Board of directors. The voting rights are distributing on the basis of each

member state share in EZ GDP. Furthermore the voting within the board of directors is carried

out in two groups the first which count for 4 vote and is curried out between the 5 strongest

economies of EZ while the second group counts for 11 votes representing the rest 14

member states. The voting rights are distributed on a 6 months rotation period. The sum of

ECB and National Banks constitute the Euro-system(Piris 2010, Christie 2014).

The European

Parliament

The President of The Union The Council

The ECOFIN/ECFIN

National experts Member States

The European Commission

Rotated Typical

Presenten

Citizens ECB

Working Group

Parliament

Judicial system Government National Statics Agency

DG

ECJ ECHR

Citizens incentiv



Figure 5 ECB/Eurosystem/ELA

Figure 6 EZ Ecosystem

Eurogroup: Eurogroup lies at the edge of EU Law. Even though it is an Unofficial body (forum

according to EU Law protocol 14), it plays a decisive role on managing the fiscal issues within

Eurozone but according to the European Court of Justice, the decision made on a eurogroup

summit has not binding effects, since the body has not such authority (Tameio Pronoias

Prosopikou Trapezis Kyprou v Commission and European Central Bank (Case T-328/13).

ECJ

The European Parliamen

The President of The Union The Council

The ECOFIN/ECFIN

National experts Member States

The European Commission

Citizens

ECB

Euro working Group

Eurogroup

The president of the Eurogroup

Parliament

Judicial system Government National Statics Agency

DG

SSM

SRM

NCBs

IMF

Working Group ECHR



Moreover, according to Protocol 14, the eurogroup elects a president for an 18-month period

presidency. Members of the Forum are the countries that have adopt euro and are EU

members.

The Global Ecosystem EU is a Major Player within the Global Economy Ecosystem and is highly interconnected with the United States of America, not only in trade and finance, but in sharing security Issues under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Another major player is the North American Free Trade Agreement, a free trade agreement whose member states are Canada, USA, and Mexico. In the near

future, under the TTP agreement and the CETA Agreement, a closer cooperation between the EU and NAFTA countries is quite possible to be established. Other players in Global Economic Ecosystem are:

1. The Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S) which has more than 150 million consumers

with potentials to reach up to 250 million consumers

2. The Nordic Council with 25 Million consumers

3. The Asia-Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) which includes the following countries China,

Bangladesh, India, Republic of Korea, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Sri Lanka and Mongolia

4. The Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf which is a regional intergovernmental

political and economic union consisting of all Arab states of the Persian Gulf, except for Iraq. Its

member states are Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

The union is preparing to introduce a single currency based on the European Single Currency

Experience.

5. The African Union (AU) is a union consisting of 54 African states excluded the Sovereign State

of Morocco. The AU was established on 26 May 2001 in Addis Ababa and launched on 9 July

2002 in South Africa. The most important decisions of the AU are made by the Assembly of the

African Union, after the political turmoil in Libya the Union had to setback in several unification

projects and relay to European Union (aka France) and NATO for security issues and to UN for

humanitarian and peacekeeping support. The union has a population of 1,053,136,000

according to 2013 estimations.

The global ecosystem has several pillars that facilitate the global economic cooperation. Its goal is to unify national economies in the era of Globalization. The most important institutions for the global Economy is the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization and the World Bank. A competitive / complimentary role to these institutions is quite possible to be carried out by the Development Bank established by BRICS countries.

BRICS are the last group of countries that emerged from the dissolution of USSR and the rapid economic development in China, Russia, India, South Africa and Brazil. On top of all these organizations lies the United Nations, more often via the United Nations Security Council Resolution.



Conclusion

Unfortunately while the framework of EU is complicated, the European movement has been trapped to the rhetoric of the previous years that has revived the old stereotypes and World War II Moral debts of Germany. While the main idea behind the European Project was the establishment of a permanent mechanism to parry the repetition of the humanitarian catastrophe that Europe has faced due to the World War II, it seems that the current relationships between the member states are at least on conflict with the spirit of European Project. While huge political and financial capital has been invested to support the European project, the economic imbalances and the major differences between each member states national priorities have caused the following paradox: on the one hand the European Project has brought the European Countries closer together, making Europe somehow smaller and somehow more homogenous, but at the same time it fragmented Europe by estranging winners and losers. It begat what is called the multiple speed Europe. (Landes 1998). Camerer, C. (1999). "Behavioral economics: Reunifying psychology and economics." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 96(19): 10575-10577.

Behavioral economics improves the realism of the psychological assumptions underlying economic theory, promising to reunify psychology and economics in the process. Reunification should lead to better predictions about economic behavior and

better policy prescriptions.

Christiansen, T. and C. Reh (2009). Constitutionalizing the European Union, Basingstoke.

Christie, C. D. a. A. (2014). Changes to the ECB's Voting Rules. E. P. R. Service. Brussels, European Parliament.

Eubusiness (2011). "European Commission wants EU minister of finance." Retrieved 21/6/2011, 2011, from http://www.eubusiness.com/news-eu/economy-forum.ag2.

EURO (2013). "Working Group." Retrieved 7/1/2014, 2014, from http://www.euro-online.org/web/pages/103/working-groups.

Holmes, J., et al. (2007). "Leadership and communication: discursive evidence of a workplace culture change." Discourse &

Communication 1(4): 433-451. Communication is an important component in the construction of workplace identities, including leader and group

identities. Micro-level analysis of everyday workplace discourse provides valuable insights into the way leadership is constructed and how workplace culture is created, maintained, and changed. In this context, leaders and managers are inevitably significant

and influential participants, with a crucial impact on workplace culture. Drawing on audio and video data collected in 12 meetings of an IT department, the analysis demonstrates ways in which two leaders, who succeed each other in the role of Director,

reinforce and shape the culture of the workplace in which they operate. While both leaders claim teamwork as an important cultural value for their teams, their respective instantiations of teamwork are rather different. To explore the leaders' effect on

UN

IMF

World Bank

WTO

Military Operations

NATO

Scandinavian Union

NAFTA

CIS

G-7 G-20

USA

EU Council of Europe

Basel

Russia

Money Markets

BIS

ISDA IFF

China

BRICS

APTA

APTA

African Union (AU)

Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf APTA

OPEC



the culture of their department, this investigation of leadership change examines ways in which the leaders manage regular workplace meetings (communication with a predominantly transactional orientation) and how they contribute to workplace

humour (more relationally oriented behaviour). The analysis provides detailed evidence of the ways in which a change in leadership style can create the conditions for a change in the culture of a community of practice.

Lai, L. and E. Turban (2008). "Groups Formation and Operations in the Web 2.0 Environment and Social Networks." Group

Decision and Negotiation 17(5): 387-402.

Landes, D. S. (1998). "The wealth and poverty of nations." WORLD AND I 13: 258-263.

Martin, J. S. (2009). Passport to success : the essential guide to business culture and customs in America's largest trading

partners / Jeanette S. Martin, Lillian H. Chaney. Westport, Conn. :, Praeger.

McDonough, W. and M. Braungart (2010). Cradle to cradle: Remaking the way we make things, MacMillan.

Modaff, D. P., et al. (2008). Organizational communication: Foundations, challenges, and misunderstandings, Pearson/Allyn & Bacon.

Needle, D. (2010). Business in context: an introduction to business and its environment, Cengage Learning EMEA.

Piris, J.-C. (2010). The Lisbon Treaty: a legal and political analysis, Cambridge University Press.

Rogers, R. W. (1975). "A protection motivation theory of fear appeals and attitude change." Journal of Psychology:

Interdisciplinary and Applied 91(1): 93-114. Proposes a protection motivation theory that postulates the 3 crucial components of a fear appeal to be (a) the

magnitude of noxiousness of a depicted event, (b) the probability of that event's occurrence, and (c) the efficacy of a protective response. Each of these communication variables initiates corresponding cognitive appraisal processes that mediate attitude

change. The proposed conceptualization is a special case of a more comprehensive theoretical schema: expectancy-value theories. Several suggestions are offered for reinterpreting existing data, designing new types of empirical research, and making

future studies more comparable. The principal advantages of protection motivation theory over the rival formulations of I. L. Janis and of H. Leventhal are discussed. (81 ref) (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)

Sorini, L. (2011). "EURO Working Group for Commodities and Financial Modelling." Retrieved 19/1/2015, 2015, from

http://www.ewgfm.eu/.

T.Pitikaris (2014). The impact of the crisis on Europe's citizens and the reinforcement of democratic involvement in the governance of the Union Corfu, European Parliament

Zammuto, R. F. and E. J. O'Connor (1992). "Gaining Advanced Manufacturing Technologies' Benefits: The Roles of Organization

Design and Culture." The Academy of Management Review 17(4): 701-728. The literature on advanced manufacturing technologies (AMTs) shows that a wide range of outcomes have been

experienced by organizations that have adopted these te

The Euro Banking System an ongoing "normal"accident

Documents

Transcript of The Euro Banking System an ongoing "normal"accident