SIX SIGMA - Sudan University of Science and Technology · Sigma vs. DPMO •1 sigma ... Key Six...

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SIX SIGMA Assoc. Prof. Dr. Rashid A. Saeed Sudan University of Science and Technology (SUST) [email protected]

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  • SIX SIGMASIX SIGMAAssoc. Prof. Dr. Rashid A. SaeedSudan University of Science and Technology (SUST)

    [email protected]

  • PhD Comm Eng., UPM

    Senior Researcher TelekomMalaysia R&D

    RF Network Engineerscertified, WiMAX Forum

    Biodata

    2

    Core Network EngineerCertification, WiMAX Forum

    6 Yellow, Green, and BlackBelt, Motorola University

    Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • What is Sigma?

    3

  • What is mu?

    4Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Mean shift during process improvement

  • What is Six Sigma?

    A philosophy and set of methods companies useto eliminate defects in their products andprocesses

    Seeks to reduce variation in the processes thatlead to product defectslead to product defects

    A standard of performance equal to 3.4 defectsper million outputs (i.e. near perfection).

    Most operations are about 2.8 sigma (100,000defects / million).

    Very good operations are about 4 sigma (3,500defects / million).

    6Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Customer Satisfaction

  • 99% Accuracy

    Practical Meaning of 99% Good

    20,000 lost articles of mail per hour

    Unsafe drinking water almost 15 minutes each day

    5,000 incorrect surgical operations per week

    2 short or long landings at most major airports each day

    8

    2 short or long landings at most major airports each day

    200,000 wrong drug prescriptions each year

    No electricity for almost 7 hours each month

    99% Is NOT Good Enough Anymore

    Dr. Rashid A. SaeedIs 99% Good ?

  • 6 The Measurement

    99.0% = 3.85

    99.9996% = 6

    9

    99.9996% = 6

    Is there really a big difference between

    99.0% & 99.9996%?

    Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • 10Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Sigma vs. DPMO

    1 sigma 690,000 DPMO 31%

    2 sigma 308,537 DPMO 69.14%

    3 sigma 66807 DPMO 93.32%

    4 sigma 6210 DPMO 99.38% 4 sigma 6210 DPMO 99.38%

    5 sigma 233 DPMO 99.97%

    6 sigma 3.4 DPMO 99.99%

    When is good is good enough?

  • Process: A series of tasks or activities whereby one thing (the input) is

    changed or used to create something else (the output)

    Processes Are Everywhere

    else (the output)

  • Process Vs. Customer

    DefectsDefects Acceptable

    LSL USL

    Customer Requirement

    Process Performance

    Process Performance And Customer Requirement Often Do Not Match

    13Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • > A universal problem-solving methodology (DMAIC) > A rigorous performance improvement approach> A customer-focused, data-driven approach to understanding

    process variation (VOP) and defect reduction (VOC)

    > A performance target of 3.4 defects per million opportunities

    Six Sigma

    Target ValueProcess

    14

    Upper SpecLimit

    Lower SpecLimit

    After

    Before

    Process Center

    VOCVOP

    Where VOP meets VOC!!! Where VOP meets VOC!!! Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Probability of Defects

    Process Capability

    Process capability=[desired performance]/[actual performance]

    To increase a process sigma level, you have to decrease variation.

    Probability of Defects

    If delivery time is

    the customer

    specification

    Delivery time

    Re

    du

    ce v

    aria

    tion

    Too lateToo early

    USL&LSL: Upper

    & Lower

    Specification

    Limit

    15

  • Unpredictable

    XXXX

    XXXX

    XX

    XX

    XXXX

    XXXX

    XX XX XXXX

    Off-Target

    XXXX

    XX

    XX

    XX

    XX

    XXXX

    XX

    XXXX

    XX

    Six Sigma Focuses on the Elimination

    of Variation

    CenterProcess

    ReduceSpreadXX

    XXXX

    XXXX

    XX

    XXXX

    XXXX

    XX XX XXXX

    On-Target

    XX

    XX

    XXXX

    XX

    16Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • 6 Sigma The Basic Process

    1. Understand the Customer Requirements

    2. Reduce Variation Waste Within The Process To Reduce the Defects

    17

    3. Center the Process Around The Customer Requirements

    4. Control The Process

  • Lean Project Attributes

    Simply stated: Lean is about moving the Mean. It focuses on efficiency.

    Lean reduces average cycle time.

    Lean reduces excess inventory.

    Lean improves average response time.

    Improvement

    Lean improves average response time.

    18Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Six Sigma Attributes

    Simply stated: Six Sigma is about Reducing Variation. It focuses on Effectiveness. The

    mean will most likely also be improved.

    Decrease defect rate

    Improvement

    Decrease defect rate

    Increase Process Yield

    19

  • Process Management

    helps us maintain

    good results as we

    perform our

    Mission.

    Strategic planning helps us

    focus on key projects to

    reach our Vision.

    Mission.Process

    Improvement using

    the DMAIC

    process

    20Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Key Six Sigma Concepts

    Critical to quality: attributes most important to the customer

    Defect: failing to deliver what customer wants Process capability: what your process can

    deliverdeliver Variation: what customer sees and feels Stable operations: ensuring consistent,

    predictable processes to improve what the customer sees and feels

    Design for six-sigma: designing to meet customer needs and process capability

  • Six Sigma Approaches

    DMADV Process Design

    DMAIC Process

    Improvement

  • Six Sigma DMAIC

    DMAIC Define the project goals and customer (internal and

    external) deliverables

    Measure the process to determine current performance

    Analyze and determine the root cause(s) of the defects

    Improve the process by eliminating defects

    Control future process performance

    When To Use DMAIC The DMAIC methodology, instead of the DMADV

    methodology, should be used when a product or process isin existence at your company but is not meeting customerspecification or is not performing adequately.

    23Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Six Sigma DMADV DMADV

    Define the project goals and customer (internal andexternal) deliverables

    Measure and determine customer needs andspecifications

    Analyze the process options to meet the customer needs Design (detailed) the process to meet the customer needs Design (detailed) the process to meet the customer needs Verify the design performance and ability to meet

    customer needs

    When To Use DMADV A product or process is not in existence at your company

    and one needs to be developed

    The existing product or process exists and has beenoptimized (using either DMAIC or not) and still doesn'tmeet the level of customer specification or six sigma level

    24Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • DMAIC Versus DMADV

    The Similarities of DMAIC and DMADV

    Six Sigma methodologies used to drive defects to less than 3.4 per million opportunities.

    Data intensive solution approaches. Intuition has no place in Six Sigma -- only cold, hard facts. Sigma -- only cold, hard facts.

    Implemented by Green Belts, Black Belts and Master Black Belts.

    Ways to help meet the business/financial bottom-line numbers.

    Implemented with the support of a champion and process owner

  • Project Selection

    Business Case

    Charter

    SIPOC / VSM

    Process Flows

    Data

    Collection Plan

    Patterns In Data

    Process Flows

    Data

    Root Cause Analysis

    Generate Solutions

    Rank & Select

    ROI / Pilot

    Implement

    Control Plan

    Results

    DefineDefine MeasureMeasure AnalyzeAnalyze ImproveImprove ControlControl

    DMAIC

    26

    SIPOC / VSM

    VOB / VOC

    CTQ Tree

    (Six Sigma Problem Solving Model)

    Patterns In Data

    Process Capability

    Implement

    E =Q*A

    PROBLEM SOLVING MODEL LEAN SIGM A

    DEFINE: VOICE OF THE CUSTOMER (VOC) SPECIFY VALUE WHAT ARE YOUR CTQ's?

    VOC - REACTIVE OPPOR TUN ITY BUSINESS CASE C HAR TER LEADERSHIP TE AM TEAM SI POC TEAM CTQ 's TEAM

    VOC - PROACTIVE PROB LEM STATEM ENT CHAM PION / SPONSOR CHARTER O R VOC PLAN VOC

    VOB - BUSINESS OPPORTUNITY STA TEM ENT COACH SIPOC V SM (WHO, WHA T, WHEN, CTQ's

    VOB - INTERNAL CUSTOM ER OUTPUT MEASURES TEAM LEADER SUPPLIERS (CURRENT STATE) WHERE AND HOW) E=Q*A

    DASHBOARDS SCOPE EXPERIENCE REQUIRED INPUTS REACTIVE VOICE CHAM PION / SPONSOR

    BALANCED SCORECA RDS PROJECT PLAN GROUND RULES (TQM ) PROCESS (4-7 STEPS) PROACTIVE VOICE STAKEHOLDER ANA LYSIS

    BIG Y's TEAM SELECTION ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITY OUTPUTS AFFINITY BUSINESS CASE / GOA LS

    GOA L SETTING PROCEDURE/PROCESS CUSTOMERS KANO MODEL PROJECT PLAN

    TIMING COM MITMENT / AVAILABILITY DATA

    MEASURE: VOICE OF THE PROCESS (VOP) IDENTIFY THE VALUE STREAM WHAT QUESTIONS ARE YOU TRYING TO ANSWER ?

    PRO CESS T IM E

    DOOR RED UCTI ON

    TEAM BA SELIN E

    CTQ" S PER FORM AN CE

    OPERATORS

    SUBJECT M ATTER / PROCESS EX PERTSVALUE STREAM M AP

    FUNCTIONAL DEPLOYMENT CHARTS

    SPAGHETTI M APPING

    TIME STUDIES / BOTTLENECKS

    TEAM DETAI LEDCTQ" S PROC ESSOPERATORS M A PSUBJECT M ATTER / PROCESS EXPERTS

    FLIPCHARTS & STICKY NOTESIDENTIFY STEPSIDENTIFY DECISIONS

    DENTIFY PROCESS STEP VARIA BLES IDENTIFY PROCESS MEA SURES IDENTIFY PROCESS STEP OUTPUTS

    TEAM IPO 's TEAM DA TA TEAM SAM PLIN G TEAM % R&R PG AP GRAP HIC AL VOP - X-BAR, P, SSIPOC WHAT ?'??s COLLEC TIO N DATA TYPE PLAN CLARITY DATA TYPE A NALY S IS VOC - CCR, CTQ'sKANO MODEL DATA TYPE PLAN DATA COLLECTION PLAN REMOVING AMBIGUITY DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS TYPE OF DATA

    CTQ'S CONTINUOUS / DISCRETE -AM OUNT OF VARIATION REPEATABILITY BOX PLOTS TAKT-TIMEWHAT ?'??s LOCATION OF THE DATA -CONFIDENCE REQUIRED REPRODUCIBILITY HISTOGRAMS Cp,Cpk,Pp,PpkWHAT DATA DO Y OU NEED? PROCESS MAPS -PRECISION REQUIRED ACCURACY NORM ALITY (AD) OEE

    COLLECTION RESTRAINTS -COST/ TIM E NOISE (SOV) MULTI-VARY CALCULATING SIGM AGAGE R&R CONFIDENCE SAM PLE CALCULATOR BIAS STRATIFICATION SIGM AXL CALCULATOR (WHO, WHAT, WHEN, SIGMAXL DISCRIMINATION SCATTER PLOT SIGM AXL WHERE AND HOW) M INITA B SIGM AXL PARETO MINITAB

    MINITAB SIGMAXLM INITA B

    ANALYZE: ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS VALUE ADDED FLOW ANALYSIS DETERMINE ROOT CAUSE / P-VALUES / VA%'s

    PR OCES S TI M E

    DO OR RE DUCT IO N

    TEAM V AFA

    SUBJECT M ATTER/PROCESS EXPERTS

    CTQ" S V A LUE

    TAKT-TIM E AD DED

    VALUE STREAM M AP %FUNCTIONAL DEPLOYMENT CHARTS

    IDENTIFY

    BUSINESS

    OPPORTUNITIESCHARTER FORM TEAM SCOPE

    PROJECT

    VOICE OF THE

    CUSTOMER(Y'S TO CTQ'S)

    DEVELOP DATA

    COLLECTION

    PLAN

    OPERATIONAL

    DEFINITIONS

    AND GAGE

    R&R

    PATTERNS IN

    DATA

    DETERMINE

    PROCESS

    CAPABILITY

    IDENTIFY I,P,O's

    MEASURES

    Y=f (X)

    (WHAT ?'s)

    SAMPLING

    PROCESS

    OR DATA

    DOOR?

    DEVELOP

    COMMUNICATION

    PLAN

    DETAILED

    PROCESS MAP

    (X's)

    TIME MAPPINGTIME OR

    VARIATION

    REDUCTION

    D

    A

    T

    A

    D

    O

    O

    R

    PROCESS

    OR DATA

    DOOR?

    TIME OR

    VA RIA TION

    REDUCTION

    V

    A

    R

    I

    A

    T

    VALUE ADDED

    FLOW

    ANALYSIS

    D

    A

    T

    A

    R

    E

    D

    U

    C

    T

    V

    A

    R

    I

    A

    T

    I

    O

    N

    R

    E

    D

    U

    C

    T

    I

    O

    N

    PROCESS

    OR DATA

    DOOR?

    D

    A

    T

    A

    D

    O

    O

    R

    P

    R

    O

    C

    E

    S

    S

    D

    O

    O

    R

    Co

    un

    t

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    WasteCount

    5.0

    Cum % 55.0 80.0 95.0 100.0

    55 25 15 5

    Percent 55.0 25.0 15.0

    InspectingWaitingMovingStoring

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    100

    80

    60

    40

    20

    0

    Pareto Chart of Waste

    Class

    Favorite Funny

    Six

    Sigma Unique SUM

    Weight 5 4 3 2

    Option

    CIAMD 1 3 2 3 29

    AKA 3 3 2 3 39

    Slackers 4 4 4 3 54

    Late 2 3 3 3 37

    Month

    Ind

    ivid

    ua

    l V

    alu

    e

    Dec-05

    Oct-05

    Aug-05

    Jun-05

    Apr-05

    Feb-05

    Dec-04

    Oct-04

    Aug-04

    Jun-04

    Apr-04

    Feb-04

    100

    99

    98

    97

    96

    95

    94

    93

    _X=97.210

    UB=100

    LCL=93.738

    Customer Satisfaction ScoreCTQs

    Dr. Rashid A. SaeedVCM: VALUE CHAIN MANAGEMENT E =Q x A. Effectiveness = Quality x Acceptance

  • Display Problem ...

    WH

    AT

    WH

    ER

    E

    WH

    EN

    WH

    O

    OU

    TC

    OM

    E

    Stratify Problem ...

    1. Define 2. Measure

    3. Analyze 4. Improve

    Checksheetor Spreadsheet Line Graph

    Month

    GOOD

    Target

    GAP

    %

    Histogram

    n=63

    21 Late

    n=21

    Pareto

    B C A D

    PROBLEM STATEMENT

    Identify & Verify Root Cause ... Identify & Implement Countermeasures ...Countermeasures MatrixSingle Case Bore Contingency Table

    FISHBONE

    RE

    AS

    ON

    /F

    AC

    TO

    R

    1

    CASE

    2 3 4 5 APresent

    EffectCauseProblem

    No Problem

    35 3

    AEFFEC

    PROBLEM STATEMENT

    ROOT CAUSE

    AA1

    A2

    C1

    4 4 16 Y

    5 4 20 Y

    EF

    F

    FE

    AS

    OV

    RL

    AC

    TN

    ?

    3 2 6 NCM

    Standard

    Results Standardization Future Plans

    A

    B

    C

    AAbsent

    4 25

    Scatter Diagram

    Cause "C"

    Eff

    ec

    t

    B

    CT

    CC1

    C2

    5 4 20 Y

    3 1 3 N

    BARRIERS AIDS

    High A1a A1b

    HOW WHO

    1. Dev2. Impl

    WHEN

    CONTROL CHARTS

    FLOW CHART

    LESSONS LEARNED

    WHAT'S NEXT?

    GOOD

    %

    CM IMPL'M

    Before After

    n=21

    n=10

    OverallEffect

    B C A D C B A D

    Target

    Action Plan

    5. Control4. Improve

    27

  • Sample Primary MetricProduct ReturnsProduct Returns

    44%%

    55%%

    66%%

    77%%

    Re

    turn

    $ A

    s %

    Sa

    les

    $R

    etu

    rn $

    As

    % S

    ale

    s $

    00%%

    11%%

    22%%

    33%%

    Au

    g-9

    9

    Se

    p-9

    9

    Oc

    t-9

    9

    No

    v-9

    9

    De

    c-9

    9

    Ja

    n-0

    0

    Fe

    b-0

    0

    Ma

    r-0

    0

    Ap

    r-0

    0

    Ma

    y-0

    0

    Ju

    n-0

    0

    Ju

    l-0

    0

    Au

    g-0

    0

    Se

    p-0

    0

    Oc

    t-0

    0

    No

    v-0

    0

    De

    c-0

    0

    Re

    turn

    $ A

    s %

    Sa

    les

    $R

    etu

    rn $

    As

    % S

    ale

    s $

    BaselineBaseline

    ActualActual

    ObjectiveObjective

    28

  • Six Sigma DMAIC Roadmap

    D - Define Phase:

    Define Customers and Requirements (CTQs)

    Develop Problem Statement, Goals and Benefits

    Identify Champion, Process Owner and Team Identify Champion, Process Owner and Team

    Define Resources

    Evaluate Key Organizational Support

    Develop Project Plan and Milestones

    Develop High Level Process Map

  • Define Phase

    D1. Project Charter: Problem Statement: "Competitors are growing their levels of satisfaction with

    support customers, and they are growing their businesses while reducing support costs per call. Our support costs per call have been level or rising over the past 18 months, and our customer satisfaction ratings are at or below average. Unless we stop or better, reverse this trend we are likely to see compounded business erosion over the next 18 months."

    Business Case: "Increasing our new business growth from 1 percent to 4 percent (or better) would increase our gross revenues by about $3 million. If we can do this without increasing our support costs per call, we should be able to realize a net gain of at least $2 million."

    Goal Statement: "Increase the call center's industry-measured customer satisfaction rating from its current level (90th percentile = 75 percent) to the target level (90th percentile = 85 percent) by end of the fourth quarter without increasing support costs."

  • Define Phase

    D2. Customer Requirements

    A SIPOC table (Suppliers, Inputs, Process, Outputs and Customers) develops a detailed view of all the

    important customers, their requirements, and the important customers, their requirements, and the

    related process step and supplier dependencies.

    Voice-of-Customer (VOC) Interviews: Group interview the representative samples of the

    company's customers.

    Summarizing Customer Requirements

  • DEFINE: Story ComponentsTo define the customer, the CTQs, the team charter, and map the core business process

    Identify BusinessOpportunity/Gap

    Identify Customers

    Select measures that link process performance to problem area related to CTQ

    Shows need for improvement

    DevelopPreliminary Problem Statement

    Select Resources (% Time) and Charter Project Good

    Identify Outcome Indicators

    Run Chart

    32

    Identify Customers Critical To Quality (CTQ) Attributes

    Map High Level Processes and Set Boundaries

    Preliminary Problem Statement

    Prepare Communication & Project Plans

    Who What When

    AA BB CC DD EECore

    1D

    AD

    BD

    CD

    DD

    E

    AA BB CC DD EE

    L D A D B D C D D D ED A D B D C D D D E

    AAAA

    DA

    DA

    Stakeholder Analysis

    Assess Financial $ Impact (COQ)

    Project Planning Worksheet

    VOB

    # Days for return

    Return Time

    CTQsDriversVoice~28 days

    Baseline48 hrs

    Goal

    -1.79 2.78

    Time & $/caseResources TBD TBD

    Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • The objective of step The objective of step 1 1 is to Demonstrate the importance is to Demonstrate the importance

    of improvement needs in measurable terms.of improvement needs in measurable terms.

    DMAIC Overview DMAIC Overview Step Step 11: Define: Define

    Define Measure Analyze Improve Control33

  • Step Step 11: Define : Define -- Line Graph ToolLine Graph Tool

    Used to display performance trends

    Relates performance to a target that is established by either customers or the business

    Displays the Gap between the observed performance and the target

    34Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Define Phase

    D3. High Level Process Map:

    The process map will be helpful during the Measure

    phase, as the project team phase, as the project team

    considers how and where to

    gather data that will shed

    light on the root cause of

    the issues most pertinent to

    the project's goals.

  • 36Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • 37Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • 38Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

    Cause-and-Effect (C&E) MatrixFMEA: Failure Mode, Effect Analysis

  • Y= (x1, x2, x3xn)

    Y= (x1, x2, x3xn)

    2. Measure

    1. DefineProblem statement

    Baseline

    Business Case

    Target statement

    Stakeholder analysis

    Risk analysis

    5. Control Validation Control mechanisms Governance Training

    Robustness

    Y= (x1, x2, x3xn)

    2. Measure

    3. Analyze

    Cause & Effect

    Historical or new data?

    Measurement System analysis

    As Is process map

    Critical few

    Benchmark

    Y= (x1, x2, x3xn)

    4. ImproveCost-benefit analysis

    Risk Analysis

    Implementation plan

  • 40Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • 41Dr. Rashid A. Saeed

  • Six Sigma DMAIC Roadmap

    M - Measure Phase:

    Define Defect, Opportunity, Unit and Metrics

    Detailed Process Map of Appropriate Areas

    Develop Data Collection Plan Develop Data Collection Plan

    Validate the Measurement System

    Collect the Data

    Begin Developing Y=f(x) Relationship

    Determine Process Capability and Sigma Baseline

  • Measure Phase

    M1. Refine the Project Y(s)

    During this step the team considered exactly how the project Y(s) would be defined and measured:

    Y(s) Measurement Y(s) Measurement

    Primary CustomerSatisfaction

    1. By industry standard monthly survey2. The project will require additional, more frequent, case-by-case customer satisfaction data. A measurement system that tracks with the industry survey will be devised and validated.

    Secondary Supprt Cost(Per Call)

    The staff time connected with each call:- Call answering and discussion- Case research- Callback time

    will be loaded with a distribution of benefits and infrastructure costs to compute overall support cost per call.

  • Measure Phase

    M2. Define Performance Standards for the Y(s)

    Measure Current Baseline Target

    Primary Customer Satisfaction(Per Collins Industry Assessment)

    90th Percentile / 70-80% Satisfied

    90th Percentile / 85% Satisfied

    Secondary Support Cost Per Call 90th Percentile / $40 90th Percentile / $32

  • Measure Phase

    M3. Identify Segmentation Factors for Data Collection Plan

    How is Y naturally segmented

    What factors may be driving the Y(s)? What factors may be driving the Y(s)?

    Y-to-x tree

    cause-and-effect diagrams

    cause-and-effect matrices

  • Measure Phase

    M4. Apply Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA)

    Questions Usually Posed for Measurement Systems:

  • Measure Phase

    M5. Collect the Data: A plan was formulated to gather data from the past year's database.

    M6. Describe and Display Variation in Current Performance Performance

    How is the Y Distributed?

    Variation above and below the chart's control limits suggested that there were "special causes"

    in play worth understanding in more detail by

    the team in the Analyze phase.

  • Measure Phase

    M4. Apply Measurement Systems Analysis (MSA)

    Questions Usually Posed for Measurement Systems:

  • Six Sigma DMAIC Roadmap

    A - Analyze Phase:

    Define Performance Objectives

    Identify Value/Non-Value Added Process Steps

    Identify Sources of Variation Identify Sources of Variation

    Determine Root Cause(s)

    Determine Vital Few x's, Y=f(x) Relationship

  • Analyze Phase

    A1. Measure Process Capability: Before segmenting the data and "peeling the onion" to look for root causes and

    drivers, the current performance is compared to

    standards (established in step M2 of the Measure phase).

    A2. Refine Improvement Goals: If the capability assessment shows a significant departure from

    expectations, some adjustment to the project goals may

    need to be considered.

  • Analyze Phase

    A3: Identify Significant Data Segments and Patterns:

    By segmenting the Y data based on the factors (x's) identified during the Measure phase the team identified during the Measure phase the team

    looks for patterns that shed light on what may be

    causing or driving the observed Y variation.

  • Analyze Phase

    A4: Identify (Refined/More Detailed List of) Possible x's Collecting the findings that came out of A3, the team posed

    strongest in the form of "why" questions:

    Why do Problems and Changes cost more than other call types?

    Why are calls processed on Mondays and Fridays more expensive? expensive?

    Why do transfer rates differ by call type? (higher on Problems and Changes, lower on others)

    Why are wait times higher on Mondays and Fridays and on Week 13 of each quarter?

  • Analyze Phase

    A5: Identify and Verify the Critical x's

    To sort out the real drivers from the "likely suspects"

    list built in A4, there is list built in A4, there is

    generally a shift from

    graphical analysis to

    statistical analysis.

    The figure shows that the influence of callbacks on a

    call's wait time

  • Analyze Phase

    A6: Refine the Financial Benefit Forecast

    Given the "short list" of the real driving x's, the financial model forecasting "how much

    improvement?" may need to be adjusted. improvement?" may need to be adjusted.

  • Example: Cause-and-Effect Diagram

    55

  • Six Sigma DMAIC Roadmap

    I - Improve Phase:

    Perform Design of Experiments

    Develop Potential Solutions

    Define Operating Tolerances of Potential System Define Operating Tolerances of Potential System

    Assess Failure Modes of Potential Solutions

    Validate Potential Improvement by Pilot Studies

    Correct/Re-Evaluate Potential Solution

  • Improve Phase

    I1. Identify Solution Alternatives to Address Critical x's:

    Consider solution alternatives from the possibilities identified earlier and decide which ones are worth pursuing further.

    Driving Xs (from Analyze phase) Solution Alternatives

    Staffing + Add staff Mondays and Fridays, reduce staff on Sundays+ Develop staffing model+ Create on-call list to fill-in for absentees

    Web Service Percentage + Focus on services that can be done best on the Web+ Define and communicate the value prop to customers+ Evaluate incentives to move traffic to the Web

    Transfers and Callbacks + Improve call center processes to reduce transfers and callbacks

    without impacting customer satisfaction

  • Improve Phase

    I2. Verify the Relationships Between x's

    and Y(s)

    What are the dynamics connecting the process x's connecting the process x's

    with the critical outputs

    Use regression analysis to verify the relationships

  • Improve Phase

    I3. Select and Tune the Solution

    Using predicted performance and net value, decide what is the best solution alternative.

    Based on everything the team had learned, it recommended: Start with Staffing (the "quick fix"). It is the fastest and surest way to stem

    the erosion of business growth. ("We recognize it is costly and not highly Start with Staffing (the "quick fix"). It is the fastest and surest way to stem

    the erosion of business growth. ("We recognize it is costly and not highly scalable (to other centers, other languages, etc.). This should be a first step, with the hope that it can be supplanted as the solution elements in other recommendations reduce staff needs.)

    Web Service Percent. Begin right away tracking the call volume and customer satisfaction with this service mode.

    Transfer and Callback reduction. Start right away. This is a "no brainer" net benefit that should work well in parallel with the first two solution elements.

  • Improve Phase

    I4. Pilot / Implement Solution: If possible, pilot the solution to demonstrate results and to verify no

    unintended side effects.

    Preparation and deployment steps for putting the pilot solution in place.

    Measures in place to track results and to detect unintended side effects.

    Awareness of people issues. Awareness of people issues.

    Measure and compare the improvement of the solution

  • Example: Opportunity Flow Diagram

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  • Six Sigma DMAIC Roadmap

    C - Control Phase:

    Define and Validate Monitoring and Control System

    Develop Standards and Procedures

    Implement Statistical Process Control

    Determine Process Capability Determine Process Capability

    Develop Transfer Plan, Handoff to Process Owner

    Verify Benefits, Cost Savings/Avoidance, Profit Growth

    Close Project, Finalize Documentation

    Communicate to Business, Celebrate

  • Control Phase

    C1. Develop Control Plan

    The Control plans addressed two views

    Management control: It often focus on the Y(s) or outcomes of the process and often some of the x's as outcomes of the process and often some of the x's as

    well

    Operational control: It concerned with the x's that are predictive of outcome Y(s).

    Operational control information included both controllable and "noise" variables

    Operational control information was provided more frequently than management control information

  • Control Phase

    C2. Determine Improved Process Capability

    Use the same measures from Define and Measure in order to provide comparability and monitor

    impact in a consistent way. impact in a consistent way.

    C3. Implement Process Control

    Create, modify and use data collection systems and output reports or dashboards consistent with

    the control plan.

  • Control Phase

    C4. Close Project

    Prepare the implementation plan, transfer control to operations, conduct project post-mortem, and

    archive project results. archive project results.

  • Example: Control Chart

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  • EC5108 67