Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015...

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Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4 th 2016

Transcript of Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015...

Page 1: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016

Page 2: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot

— Index trend

— Sector focus

— ETF fund flows

— Loan market settlement volumes and T+ trend

Contents

Page 3: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Leveraged loan and HY bond total returns 2015

Index trend 2015

Cash loan indices Q4Δ% 2015 return

Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loan Index -2.25% -1.04%

Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Leveraged Loan Index -2.07% -2.69%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Dec/14 Jan/15 Feb/15 Mar/15 Apr/15 May/15 Jun/15 Jul/15 Aug/15 Sep/15 Oct/15 Nov/15 Dec/15

Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loans Index Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Leveraged Loan Index iBoxx $ Liquid High Yield Index

Source: Markit

Page 4: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Sector view – Q4 2015

BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+

Basic Materials NA +6 -20 -37 +9 +27 +35 +58 +66

EU +0 -23 -41 +4 +21 +32 +54 +62

Consumer Goods NA -6 -32 -49 -3 +15 +23 +46 +54

EU -12 -35 -53 -8 +9 +20 +42 +50

Consumer Services NA +2 -24 -41 +5 +23 +31 +54 +62

EU -4 -27 -45 -0 +16 +28 +49 +58

Energy NA +1 -24 -41 +4 +23 +31 +54 +62

EU -6 -28 -47 -2 +15 +26 +48 +56

Financials NA -12 -38 -55 -9 +9 +17 +40 +48

EU -18 -41 -60 -15 +2 +14 +35 +44

Healthcare NA -0 -26 -43 +3 +21 +29 +52 +60

EU -6 -28 -47 -2 +15 +27 +48 +56

Industrials NA +0 -25 -42 +3 +22 +30 +53 +61

EU -6 -28 -47 -2 +15 +26 +48 +56

Technology NA -6 -32 -49 -3 +16 +23 +46 +54

EU -11 -33 -52 -7 +10 +21 +43 +51

Telecommunication Services NA +8 -18 -35 +11 +29 +37 +60 +68

EU +1 -21 -40 +5 +22 +33 +55 +63

Utilities NA -16 -42 -59 -13 +6 +13 +36 +44

EU -22 -45 -63 -18 -1 +10 +32 +40

Q4 change in North American and European leveraged loan sector spreads (bps)

Page 5: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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ETF flows 2015

$2

$5

$1 $1

$(1)

$(3)

$1

$(1) $(1)

$6

$0

$(1)

$(4)

$(2)

$-

$2

$4

$6

$8

January March May Jul Sep Nov

Bil

lio

ns

High Yield ETFs

$(56)

$63

$(172)

$378

$(32)

$(191)

$97

$(406)

$(155)

$233

$(421)

$(242)

$(500)

$(400)

$(300)

$(200)

$(100)

$-

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

January March May Jul Sep Nov

Mil

lio

ns

Senior Loan ETFs

Page 6: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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ETF fund flows 2015

-0.81%

0.91%

-2.53%

5.25%

-0.45%

-2.78% 1.41%

-6.30%

-2.50%

3.61%

-7.09%

-4.32%

4.41%

9.51%

1.25% 1.23%

-1.39%

-6.70%

2.09%

-2.08% -2.71%

11.46%

0.27%

-2.82%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

January February March April May June Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Asset Flows as % of AUM

Loan Asset Flows as % of AUM High Yield Asset Flows as % of AUM

ETF Type 2015 total net asset flow 2015 ending AUM Total net asset flow as % of AUM High Yield $8,258,426,865 $48,881,550,269 16.89%

ETF Type 2015 total net asset flow 2015 ending AUM Total net asset flow as % of AUM Loan $(903,253,430) $5,605,555,134 -16.11%

Year-to-date

Page 7: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Settled trade volume in the secondary market (LSTA)

Loan market settlement volumes 2015

236.1 244.4

353.8

475.2

548.3

18.1

19.8

23.0

21.1

19.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

LSTA Secondary Par Settled Allocations

Source: Markit Loan Settlement

T+

(b

us

ine

ss

da

ys

) 391.5

355.7

529.8

647.3 627.9

18.1

19.8

23.0

21.1

19.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billio

ns

LSTA Secondary Par Settled Notional

T+

(b

us

ine

ss

da

ys

)

Source: Markit Loan Settlement

Page 8: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Loan market settlement volumes 2015, contd

107.6

101.5 100.0

82.4 83.8

96.0

86.0 90.0

109.1

144.3 143.4

133.1 125.6

171.9 174.4 175.5

160.2

154.0 151.5

162.2

17.8

19.3

17.1

18.4

17.2

19.5

21.1 21.2

22.7 23.1

25.0

20.9

21.8

20.2

21.3 21.2

19.6 19.3

20.2

18.2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

T+

(b

us

ine

ss

da

ys

)

Billio

ns

LSTA Secondary Par Settled Notional by Quarter

Source: Markit Loan Settlement

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From the Markit commentary team:

“While underperforming in Q4, leveraged loans were a better investment than high

yield bonds if you look at the full year. This is partly due to high yield bonds' higher

exposure to energy, approximately 16%, compared to 8% for leveraged loans.

Commodity prices remain stubborn due to weak global fundamentals and

leveraged loans may find themselves better positioned than HY bonds should

commodity downside risk continue to linger.”

- Neil Mehta, credit market analyst at Markit

For full commentary from our analysts go to www.markit.com/commentary

Analysis

Page 10: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

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Contact:

Alex Paidas

Corporate communications

[email protected]

+1 212 205 7101

Contact

Page 11: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

Thank you.

Page 12: Q4 2015 loan market snapshot · Q4 2015 loan market snapshot Markit \ January 4th 2016 \ 2 Q4 2015 Markit loans data snapshot —Index trend —Sector focus —ETF fund flows —Loan

mines data

pools intelligence

surfaces information

enables transparency

builds platforms

provides access

scales volume

extends networks

& transforms business.

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