Q2 2016 loan market data snapshot · 2017-11-15 · Q2 2016 loan market data snapshot Markit \ July...
Transcript of Q2 2016 loan market data snapshot · 2017-11-15 · Q2 2016 loan market data snapshot Markit \ July...
Q2 2016 loan market data snapshot Markit \ July 1 2016
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Q2 2016 Markit loans data snapshot
— Index trend
— Pricing trend
— Sector trend
— ETF asset flows
— CLO trend
— Trade settlement efficiency (T+) trend
Contents
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Leveraged loan and HY bond total returns 2016
Index trend 2016
Cash loan indices Q2Δ% YTD return
Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loan Index 3.12% 4.64%
Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Leveraged Loan Index 2.13% 4.48%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12/31/2015 1/31/2016 2/29/2016 3/31/2016 4/30/2016 5/31/2016 6/30/2016
Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Leveraged Loans Index Markit iBoxx USD Leveraged Loans Index Markit iBoxx USD Liquid High Yield Index
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Index and pricing data Q2 2016
Region Average bid QTD ∆ YTD % ∆
US 93.52 0.75% 0.19%
Europe 92.35 -1.18% -1.21%
Asia 80.82 -2.10% -1.92%
Average loan spreads to maturity (June 30) 1 year
tenor 3 year tenor 5 year tenor 7 year tenor
BB L+241.83 L+287.90 L+320.02 L+349.31
B L+489.55 L+535.71 L+567.83 L+597.13
CCC L+917.06 L+963.13 L+995.25 L+1,024.54
Average loan spreads Q2 2016 ∆ 1 year tenor 3 year tenor 5 year tenor 7 year tenor
BB -21.35% -16.77% -14.08% -11.67%
B -12.58% -10.87% -9.69% -8.49%
CCC -3.91% -3.37% -2.94% -2.44%
Pricing trend: average bids in the secondary market
Pricing trend: average spreads by credit rating (globally)
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Sector view – Q2 2016
Q2 change in North American and European leveraged loan sector spreads (bps) BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC+
Basic Materials NA +18 +16 +8 +6 +1 +5 +6 -107
EU +19 +18 +7 +6 -1 +4 +4 -107
Change NA-EU -1.0 -1.8 +0.9 +0.1 +2.0 +1.5 +1.3 -0.1
Consumer Goods NA +19 +17 +8 +7 +2 +6 +6 -106
EU +22 +21 +10 +9 +2 +7 +7 -104
Current NA-EU -3.0 -3.9 -1.2 -1.9 -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -2.1
Consumer Services NA +1 -1 -9 -11 -16 -12 -11 -123
EU +4 +3 -8 -8 -15 -11 -10 -121
Current NA-EU -3.3 -4.2 -1.5 -2.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -2.5
Energy NA +58 +56 +47 +46 +41 +45 +45 -67
EU +61 +60 +49 +49 +42 +46 +47 -64
Current NA-EU -3.7 -4.6 -1.9 -2.7 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -2.9
Financials NA -18 -20 -28 -30 -35 -31 -30 -142
EU -14 -15 -26 -27 -34 -29 -28 -139
Current NA-EU -4.0 -4.9 -2.2 -2.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.7 -3.1
Healthcare NA +21 +19 +11 +9 +4 +8 +9 -104
EU +24 +23 +12 +11 +4 +9 +9 -101
Current NA-EU -3.1 -4.0 -1.3 -2.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.8 -2.3
Industrials NA +13 +11 +3 +1 -4 +0 +1 -111
EU +15 +14 +3 +3 -4 +0 +1 -110
Current NA-EU -2.3 -3.1 -0.4 -1.2 +0.7 +0.2 +0.0 -1.4
Technology NA -5 -7 -15 -17 -22 -18 -18 -130
EU -3 -4 -15 -16 -23 -18 -18 -128
Current NA-EU -2.3 -3.2 -0.5 -1.2 +0.6 +0.1 +0.0 -1.4
Telecommunication Services NA +4 +2 -6 -8 -13 -9 -8 -121
EU +9 +8 -3 -4 -11 -6 -6 -116
Current NA-EU -5.1 -5.9 -3.3 -4.0 -2.2 -2.6 -2.8 -4.2
Utilities NA +12 +10 +2 +0 -5 -1 -0 -113
EU +17 +16 +5 +5 -2 +2 +3 -108
Current NA-EU -5.6 -6.4 -3.7 -4.5 -2.6 -3.1 -3.3 -4.7
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ETF asset flows Q2 2016
ETF Type 2016 Q2 net asset flow YTD net asset flow Loan $1,127,668,303 $1,105,491,617
ETF Type 2016 Q2net asset flow YTD net asset flow HY Bond $(6,055,422,640) $326,276,715
$(150)
$(316)
$444
$(71)
$584 $614
$(400)
$(200)
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
January February March April May June
Mill
ion
s
Senior Loan ETFs
(0.080)
1.610
4.852
0.233
(2.360)
(3.929) $(5)
$(4)
$(3)
$(2)
$(1)
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
January February March April May June
Bill
ion
s
High Yield ETFs
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ETF asset flows Q2 2016
ETF Type 2016 Q2 ending AUM Q2 % ∆ in AUM YTD % ∆ in AUM Loan $6,301,483,669 11.84% 13.36%
ETF Type 2016 Q2 ending AUM Q2 % ∆ in AUM YTD % ∆ in AUM HY Bond $54,211,898.825 (3.79%) 13.05%
Year-to-date
-2.78%
-6.23%
7.88%
-1.25%
9.36%
1.00% -0.17%
3.24%
8.61%
0.40%
-4.20%
-3.40%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
January February March April May June
Asset Flows as % of AUM
Loan Asset Flows as % of AUM High Yield Asset Flows as % of AUM
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CLO trend Q2 2016
CLO 2.0 spreads in the secondary trading market tightened considerably from April to until the Brexit
referendum. Since the referendum U.S and European spreads widening 10-70bps and 30-200bps,
respectively. 2.0 European CLO portfolios contain around 15% exposure to UK collateral and a recession
would trigger further credit deterioration in these deals. Price volatility is most pronounced in lower mezz
paper and equity, with further tiering across deals and managers.
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1-Apr 16-Apr 1-May 16-May 31-May 15-Jun
Dis
co
un
t M
arg
in (
DM
)
Average 2.0 Eur BB
Average 2.0 US BB
Average BBs (over 20% UKExposure)
CLO 2.0 BB trend
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Settled trade volume in the secondary market (LSTA)
Loan market settlement efficiency Q2 2016
391.5 355.7
529.8
647.3 628.0
317.3
18.1
19.8
23.0
21.1 19.3
18.4
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 (Q2)
Billi
on
s
LSTA Secondary Par Settled Notional
T+
(b
us
ine
ss
da
ys
)
Source: Markit Loan Settlement
236.1 244.4
353.8
475.2
548.3
321.9
18.1
19.8
23.0
21.1
19.3 18.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016(Q2)
Th
ou
sa
nd
s
LSTA Secondary Par Settled Allocations
Source: Markit Loan Settlement
T+
(b
us
ine
ss
da
ys
)
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Loan market settlement efficiency Q2 2016, contd
107.6 101.5 100.0
82.4 83.8
96.0
86.0 90.0
109.1
144.3 143.4
133.1 125.6
171.9 174.4 175.5
160.2 154.0 151.5
162.3
152.7
164.6
17.8
19.3
17.1
18.4
17.2
19.5
21.1 21.2
22.7 23.1
25.0
20.9 21.8
20.2 21.3 21.2
19.6 19.3 20.2
18.2 19.3
17.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
T+
(b
usin
es
s d
ays
)
Billi
on
s
LSTA Secondary Par Settled Notional by Quarter
Source: Markit Loan Settlement
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From the Markit commentary team:
“After witnessing a dramatic turnaround in Q1 this year, leveraged loans continued
to post strong returns into Q2. With Brexit so far showing a minimal impact on
returns, factors for the asset class such as stable commodity prices, looser
monetary conditions in the US, and falling risk free yields all contributed to positive
investor risk sentiment.”
- Neil Mehta, credit market analyst at Markit
For full commentary from our analysts go to www.markit.com/commentary
Analysis
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