PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA Overview and Comments on EU-25 pipfruit crop forecasts Dr. Wilhelm...

PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA

Overview and Comments onEU-25 pipfruit crop forecasts

Dr. Wilhelm Ellinger

ZMP, Bonn

2


Prognosfruit forecast‘s quality evaluation

apples

2006

forecast

1000 t

Final

1000 t

Δ

1000 t

Δ

%

OM (11) 6.607 6.651 + 44 + 1

NM (8) 2.978 3.112 + 134 + 4

Total 9.585 9.763 + 178 + 2

Quality of forecasts seem to be ok However, several countries (8) took forecasts for final Were these really 100% precise???

3


What was expected one year ago, what happened at the market?

Lowest crop for a long time

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

million tons

s

NM

OM

0,4 mln t less in OMS

4


Moderate carryover of old European crop

• In 2006 stocks in 6 countries by 78.000 t (27%) lower than in 2005

• Taking into account missing countries minus might have been 100.000 t at least

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2003 2004 2005 2006

Stocks July 1 (EU (6), 1000 t)

5


… in spite of ample late S.H. supply

• Though total imports from S.H. were lowest for years (702.000 t vs. 820.000 t in 2005) imports from July on (surprisingly) exceeded 2005 (mainly South Africa, Chile)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2003 2004 2005 2006

Imports from S.H. July and later (1000 t)

Source: Eurostat

6


…provides for a good start

• Total supply from old crop (EU, S.H.) from July on at least 50.000 t, probably nearer to 100.000 t lower than in 2005

• Picking about 1 week delayed

• Prices until wk 36 more than 50% above 2005, but lower than in 2004

0

100

200

300

400

500

2003 2004 2005 2006

EU(6) stocks 1.7. Imp. S.H. July+

7


Concerns: good crops in backgardens

• Households operating backgardens were more self-sufficient in autumn 2006

• Not the only reason for weak demand: consumer prices increased (+2% vs. 04, +13% vs. 05)

vs. ´04 - 5% - 5%vs. ´05 - 29% - 6%

Hobby gardeners

Apple buyings Sep/Nov (Germany)

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006

kg

/HH

Hobby gardeners hh without backyard

8


Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. France)

9


Concerns: how much will higher consumer prices affect demand (Ex. Germany)

0,8

0,9

1

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5

'04/05

'05/06

'06/07

10


Indeed, consumer react (Ex. France)

11


Indeed, consumer react (Ex. Germany)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Aug Okt Dez Feb Apr Jun

Apple buyings (1.000 t)

'04/05

'05/06

'06/07

Aug/June-4% vs. 04/05

-- 9 % vs. 05/06

12


-18

-16

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

%

EU average

Consumption 2006/07 falls to lowest level for years*

*) Latest available 12 month/52 wks househould panel data

13


Rather different reactions on price increase

Country Period 2006/07 vs. 05/06%)

price volume ratio

DE Aug-Jun + 10,2 - 9,1 -0,89

AT May-April + 19,1 - 16,8 - 0,88

FR Aug-Jun + 12,3 - 8,3 - 0,67

UK 52 w/e jun17 + 10,7 - 3,8 - 0,36

NL 52 w/e jun17 + 14,9 - 3,9 - 0,26

IT Aug-Apr + 3,0 - 0,6 - 0,20

ES Aug-May + 15,0 + 1,2 + 0,08

14


Concerns: higher imports might compensate for lower crop

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s

Table apple imports EU-15 from extra EU-15

+ 70.000 t

15


Concerns: EU exports might suffer

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s

EU-15 table apple exports to Extra EU-15- 90.000 t

16


However, increase in trade deficit remained limited in EU-15

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

1.0

00 t

1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s

17


Balance even improved for EU-25

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1.0

00 t

2004/05 2005/06v 2006/07s

Imports

Exports

Balance

18


Unsatiable Russian market

apple imports

Season

(July/June)Sep-Mar

(1000 t) 04/05 05/06 04/05 05/06 06/07 %

World 758 715 409 429 537 + 25

EU-15 95 176 59 117 110 - 7

NMS 197 148 116 80 182 + 126

CIS 227 162 155 128 104 - 19

other 239 229 79 103 141 + 37

19


Decrease in consumption inevitable (EU-15)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1.0

00 t

Import surplus

Production (withdrawals excl.)

Remark: Consumption incl. processing!

Consumption according to- Supply balance sheet -3,3%- panel data -4,7%

20


Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example weekly prices Germany)

Sales prices P.O. Lower Elbe / Lake of Constance table apples, class I

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

wk 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 2 5 8 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32

2006/07 2005/06 2004/05 2003/04

Euro/100kg

21


Result of the shortage: producer prices above 2005/06 (example seasonal prices Germany)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Euro/100kg

nom

real

22


Golden Delicious, prix d'expedition av. SE/SW/Loire(layer 75-80mm)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

wk 38 41 44 47 50 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

2006/07 2005/06 2004/05

Euro/100kg

Source: SNM, adapted by ZMP

Prices in S. Europe increased even more(ex.: France)

23


Prices in S. Europe increased even more(ex.: season av. producer price South of Tyrol)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Eu

ro/1

00 k

g

24


Forecasts 2007

Hopefully more than to read tea

leaves!

25


Year of extreme weather (I): warm winter/spring induce early blossoming

Date of full blossoming Bavendorf(Elstar)

110

115

120

125

130

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Day

s fr

om

Jan

1 o

n..

.April 21

May 7

26


3 frost waves cause much damage in parts of Central Europe

• April 6 (PL, CZ, SK, parts E/S Germany), apples not yet very susceptible

• April 20-22 (PL, CZ, SK, E Germany, HU, Niederösterreich)

• April 30-May 2 (PL, CZ, SK, HU, Niederösterreich)

27


April 6, min temperature at bottom

Mostly green tip stage,critical below -7°C

Quelle: wetteronline.de

28


April 22, min temperature at bottom

PL: pears in full blossoming,apples start blossoming, damage in CZ, SK and NE Hungary, too


29


May 2, min temperature at bottom

Cold spell penetrates PL,CZ, SK, N Hungary


30


The effects of the frost

1. Crop losses between30 and 70% in NMS (look at the tables in the proceedings)2. Deformations andskin defects => pro-cessing quality

Source: Szabo

31


No rain during blossoming period

Mostly positive:No scab!But low humidityimpacted pollinationand favoured russetting (Golden)

32


Heatwave SE Europe in July

33


Fireblight is expanding

CH most affected,but also several Austrian states, Lake of Constance region, South of Baden, Rhone valley (FR), Slovakia, Gerona (ES)Minor impact on current crop than on medium term Source: ACW

34


Lowest apple crop since ? years

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

9.000

10.000

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005v

2006

2007f

1.0

00 t

EU-15

NMS-10

PL 1990 812.000 t HU lowest since more than 40 y LT since 2004CZ since 1998 SK lowest since state was founded

35


Austria: bumper crop

• Strong fruit set, favourable development of growth (+1/+2 mm)

• Good internal quality, high Brix

• Few russetting (ex. Elstar)

• Hail in north of Styria, but major damage prevented by nets

• Fireblight widespread• Picking 2 weeks earlier

36


Belgium (I): normal crop

• Av. yield equals 2006 (> Golden, < Boskoop, Elstar)

• Decrease in area continues (-150 ha), mainly Jonagold

• Producers step gently in new varieties (mainly Kanzi, Belgica, few Rubens, Junami, Pinova; stopped planting Greenstar )

37


Belgium (II): good size, much hail

• Fruit size much bigger now, but also at harvest time > 2006 expected

• Picking starts 2 weeks earlier

• Few russetting and scab, but more mildew

• Hail damage above average

• Global warming → increasing problems with woolly aphid and codling moth

38


France: Prévision de récolte à fin Juillet 2007

Nord27 000 T+ 23%

Val de Loire422 427 T

- 1%

TOTAL FRANCE1 613 000 T

+ 2 %

Sud Ouest468 750 T

- 3%

Sud Est484 000 T

+ 4%

TOTAL FRANCE1 613 000 T

+ 2 %

Nord27 000 T+ 23%

Val de Loire422 000 T

+- 1%

Sud Ouest469 000 T

- 3%

Sud Est484 000 T

+ 4%

39


France in detail• Decrease of areage levels out:

2007:06 -2% after -10% 2006:05• Ample blossoming and fruit set (ex. Red

Delicious), much thinning needed• On average, normal yields• Good sizes• Average hail damage, mainly Lot-et-Garonne,

Vaucluse (after nearly no hail 2006)• Picking in the North 10-15 days earlier, normal in

the South• Stocks on July 1, 2007 -21% vs. 2006


en Tonnes

Récolte française : Destinations

2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007Prévision 2007/2008

Récolte 1 728 000 1 708 000 1 769 000 1 584 000 1 613 000Marché de frais

- dont France 850 000 848 000 879 000 780 000 770 000

- dont Export 608 000 610 000 620 000 604 000 600 000

Hors frais 270 000 250 000 270 000 200 000 243 000


par variété en Tonnes

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Golden Gala Granny Braeburn

Rouges Fuji Pink Lady

42


DE: crop forecasts in the main growing regions

1. Niederelbe 304.000 t

+ 1% vs. 2006

+ 15% vs. Ø 2003-2006

2. Bodensee 281.000 t

+ 25% vs. 2006

+ 26% vs. Ø 2003-2006

3. Sachsen 86.000 t

3% vs. 2006

5% vs. Ø 2003-2006

1

2

3

300

250

100

capacity DE: 1,0 million tons

43


Germany in detail

• Lower crops of old varieties (Cox Orange, Idared, Gloster) due to uprooting

• All-time record expected for Elstar, Braeburn, Gala, Pinova

• No scab, few russetting• Fruit size to date in advance, at picking date expected to

be normal (in Lake of Constance smaller than 2006 due to heavy fruit set)

• Hail above average (similar as 2006)• Start picking 2 weeks earlier (the 1st ‚Klarapfel‘ ripe for

picking reported June 26!), cold nights at the end of July good for colour

45


Others 38%

Alto Adige

42%Trentin

o

20%

(1.000 t) 2007 vs. 06 (%)Alto Adige 857 - 7Trentino 417 + 15Rest of Italy 769 + 9Total 2.043 + 3

46


Italy in detail (I)• South of Tyrol

– Fruit set in the hills better than in the valleys, light set Cripps Pink

– Quality very good, however sunburn in the last decade of July (especially Gala)

– Golden russetting in Etsch valley widespread– Av. sizes similar as in 2006 expected (more medium

sized, less under/oversized)– More hail damage than in 2006 (2006 3.500 ha

affected)– Picking 8-10 days earlier (Gala Aug 6, young orchards

Aug 1-2), colour (depending on clone) might be a problem

47


Italy in detail (II)

• Trentino– Very good crop (volume and quality) in Valle di Non– Hail damage in Valle di Non neglectible, but

considerable damage south of Trento– Storage capacity in Valle di Non might be short

• Po valley– Problem of water seemed resolved by end of June,

but again on the agenda due to heat and drought in July

– Hail in all main growing areas

48


NL: high yields

• Decrease in acreage 2%– Smaller acreage of all traditional varieties (e.g. Jonagold -9%)– Strong increase of new varieties (Kanzi, Junami, Rubens)

• Good weather conditions during blossoming and cell division period

• Good fruit set Jonagold, Elstar, Golden, biennial bearing Boskoop („off-year“)

• Larger sizes at picking date expected• A lot of hail in Zealand, Noordoostpolder, Goes region

(nearly 1.000 ha affected)• Picking 2 weeks earlier

49


PT: lowest crop since 1998

• At beginning of blossoming good weather conditions, later on frequent rains and strong winds

• Below average fruit set

• High incidence of fungal infections

50


Spain – 2007 ought to be „on year“ in biennial bearing cycle, but isn‘t in Catalonia

304.000 t - 7% / 2006-15%/ 03-06

160.000 t+40% / 2006+ 6% / 03-06

Total 570.000 t+ 4%/2006-21%/2003-06

Source: CCAE

Contrary to CCAEMAPA expects -9%for Spain, -10% forAragon!

51


In fact, two below average crops in a row

• Catalonia– Acreage reduced (-4%), „plan de reconversion“,

uprooting Red >Gala >Fuji– Frost damage March 22-23– Cold, rainy weather during/after blossoming– Very low yield Red Delicious (12 t/ha)– „On-year“ for Fuji

• Hail in May (about 700 ha in Lerida, Aragon)

52


UK: acreage stabilized and modernized

• Acreage hit rock bottom 2003-05, last 3 years considerable planting of Braeburn, Gala, Jazz, Kanzi, Cameo, also replanting of trad. varieties

• Ideal blossoming conditions, very good fruit set• Much hail, about 10% of the crop

damaged/destroyed• Much optimism in the industry

– Consumers/supermarkets ask for locally produced apples („foodmiles“/climate change discussion)

– Increased demand for juice/cider apples (success of new premium drink „cider over ice“)

53


CZ: lowest crop since 1995

• Buds/blossoms damaged by 3 frost spells with min temp of -7°C each (April 6 & 21, May 1)

• A lot of fruits not suited for fresh market• Imports table apples will increase (normal 60.-

70.000 t)• Backgarden crop likewise damaged: decrease

from 105.000 t to 65.000 t (mainly processing (2006 40.000 t) and exports for processing (2006 57.000 t affected)

54


HU (I): frost damage as in 2007 once a century

• 1st cold spell April 20-22

• Lowest temp in Northeast

• Data don‘t show the real threat as measured at 2 m hight and within towns

55


HU (II): frost damage as in 2007 once a century

• 2nd cold spell May 1-3, much more damage than during the 1st one

• Freezing temp. for 6 resp. 8 hours

• Lowest temp. in valleys of Szatmar region -8/-9°C

• Fruitlets and leaves got lack

56


HU (III): frost damaged region the most important as regards apples

• Szabolcs-Szatmat-Bereg losses 80%, remaining for processing only

• Transdanubia plains losses 50-60%

• W/SW-Hungary no frost damage, but losses by sunburn up to 10%

• Big sizes, risk of physiological problems

57


HU (IV): supply for processing and fresh market likewise tight• Average processing

share 75% due to dominating old Jonathan orchards in Northeast

• 2007 only about 60% for processing expected in spite of quality defects (frost, sunburn), how that?

• Regions targeting fresh market will contribute a higher proportion to the national crop

420 432 430357 375

119

107 118238

110 105

84

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

for processing sold as fresh

Source: Dr. E.Kallay

58


PL(I): Smallest crop since 1990

• 1st cold spell April 22-24, min temp -4/-6°C at bottom in fruit growing regions

• 2nd cold spell April 30-May 2 -9°C (ground)/ -5°C (2m) Grojec region, others -5°C (gr.)/ -3 to -4°C (2m)

• 145.000 of 170.000 ha apple orchards affected• Forecast Prof.Makosz 1,2 mln t (GUS even 0,9 to

1,1 mln t)• Last comparable frost years: 1990 (812.000 t) and

1987• Sufficient water, good growth conditions, big sizes

59


PL (II): Effects on processing volume

• Forecasts 500.-600.000 t• Juice apple imports from

Moldavia• Processing of minor

quality (e.g. small thinned apples)

• Less exports, more imports of ajc

• Great impact on world ajc market

• Juice apple prices will skyrocket

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1.0

00 t

for processing

60


PL(III): effects on trade

• Exports will decrease more (in %) than production

• Major imports for the first time (much depends on consumer reaction upon higher prices)

• Opportunity for EU-15 to replace Polish apples in Russia (directly or via PL)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1.0

00 tt

exports imports

?

61


Slovenia: normal crop

• Blossoming more than two weeks in advance• Good fruit growth until end of June (size T-

stadium 2-3 mm above av.), slowing down due to heat in July

• Less hail than in previous years• About 25% for processing (half of it due to hail

damage)• Picking Gala/Elstar will start Aug 5-10 in

Central/South Slovenia (colour still lacking)

62


Boom organic apples slowed down

• Two-digit increase in organic fresh fruit buyings - moderate increase apple buyings

• Background: general decrease in apple buyings last season

• Tight supply organic spring/summer 2006

• Influence backgarden crop

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000t

Organic apple buyings DE&AT

volume

value

63


Bigger organic apple crop 2007

– About 70.000 t in „Central Europe“ (considerably more „conversion“, less „full organic“ than in 2006)

– more than in 2006: Lake of Constance Region, South of Tyrol, NL

– less than in 2006: Austria, France– Higher proportion Golden, Elstar, less Topaz

64


Conclusions apple market

• Extremely strong demand for juice apples expected as ajc stocks sold out and supply processing apples much lower

• High prices of juice apples will give an incentive to divert minor qualities to processing

• Shortage in NMS provides opportunity (for EU-15) to export more to NMS and Russia

• Competition from non-EU countries? lecture Mr.Peres• High probability that season average table apple prices

will increase further

65


66


Review pears 2006/07

• EU-15 crop underestimated (forecast 2,44 mln, final 2,56 mln t) biggest crop for years

• Disappointing quality (small sizes, rough skin …)• Consequently disappointing domestic consumption (-4%

in 7 OMS, hh panel data)• Pressure to expand exports (257.000 => 317.000 t)• Bad quality opened door for increased S.H. imports

(Extra-EU15 imp 311.000 => 340.000 t)• Low prices• Limits of growth or only a question of quality?

67


Hope for better season 2007/08

• Production slightly below average

• Generally lower fruit set and better sizes

• „off-year“ in Southern Europe

• Production capacity in B/NL continues to grow

PROGNOSFRUIT 2007 - LITHUANIA Overview and Comments on EU-25 pipfruit crop forecasts Dr. Wilhelm...

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