prob bootcamp 2009 - Courses | Course Web Pages · we get 2 red, 3 bule and 1 yellow; 1 1 ......
Transcript of prob bootcamp 2009 - Courses | Course Web Pages · we get 2 red, 3 bule and 1 yellow; 1 1 ......
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Singular Value Decomposition
TVUA Σ=
m×m m×n V is n×n
For an m× n matrix A there exists a factorization(Singular Value Decomposition = SVD) as follows:
The columns of U are orthogonal eigenvectors of AAT.
The columns of V are orthogonal eigenvectors of ATA.
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Singular Value DecompositionIllustration of SVD dimensions and sparseness
m>n
m<n
( )1... .... ( )T Tr idiag is eigenvalueof A A or AAλ λ λ
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SVD example1 0.52 1.1
10 4.911 5.6
A
⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥=⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
Matlab: [U S V]=svd(A)
-0.0665 0.0080 -0.7239 -0.6866 16.8168 0 -0.1356 -0.5652 0.5633 -0.5873 -0.6622 0.6614 0.2759 -0.2190 -0.7340 -0.4930 -0.2874 0.3683
⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
0 0.1538 -0.8939 0.4482 0 0 -0.4482 -0.8939
0 0
⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥ ⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥ ⎣ ⎦⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
1
2
16.81680.1538
λλ
==
5
1 16.8168λ =
0 2 4 6 8 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12
Qua
drat
ure
In-Phase
Scatter plot
-0.0665 -0.1356 -0.6622 -0.7340
1 16.8168λ =
-0.5652 -0.4930 0.0080 0.6614
2 0.1538λ =
-0.0665 0.0080 -0.7239 -0.6866 -0.1356 -0.5652 0.5633 -0.5873 -0.6622 0.6614 0.2759 -0.2190 -0.7340 -0.4930 -0.2874 0.3683
⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
2 Features
1 Feature
1 0.52 1.1
10 4.911 5.6
A
⎡ ⎤⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥=⎢ ⎥⎢ ⎥⎣ ⎦
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Basic Probability
If we toss a coin twice sample space of outcomes = ?{HH, HT, TH, TT} (fair ¼)
Event – A subset of the sample spaceonly one head comes upprobability of this event: 1/2
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Property of ProbabilityThe probability of an event lies [0 1].
i.e. 0<= P(E) <= 1.The probability of an impossible event is ‘0’ i.e. P (E) = 0The probability of a sure event is 1. i.e. P(S) = 1. where ‘S’ is the sure event.If ‘E’ is any event and E1 be the complement of event ‘E’, then P(E) + P(E1) = 1.
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Computing Conditional Probabilities
Conditional probability P(A|B) is the probability of event A, given that event B has occurred:
P(B)B)P(AB)|P(A ∩
=
Where P(A ∩ B) = joint probability of A and BP(A) = marginal probability of AP(B) = marginal probability of B
The conditional probability of A given that B has occurred
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Computing Joint and Marginal Probabilities
The probability of a joint event, A and B:
Independent events:P(B|A) = P(B)P(A and B) = P(A)P(B)
Bayes’ Theorem:
outcomeselementaryofnumbertotalBandAsatisfyingoutcomesofnumber)BandA(P =
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Visualizing EventsContingency Tables
Tree Diagrams
Red 2 24 26Black 2 24 26
Total 4 48 52
Ace Not Ace Total
Full Deck of 52 Cards
Red Card
Black Card
Not an Ace
Ace
AceNot an Ace
Sample Space
Sample Space2
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2
24
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P(A1 ∩ B2) P(A1)
TotalEvent
Joint Probabilities Using Contingency Table
P(A2 ∩ B1)
P(A1 ∩ B1)
Event
Total 1
Joint Probabilities Marginal (Simple) Probabilities
A1
A2
B1 B2
P(B1) P(B2)
P(A2 ∩ B2) P(A2)
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Example
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD). 20% of the cars have a CD player but not AC.What is the probability that a car has a CD player, given that it has AC ?
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Introduction to Probability Distributions
Random VariableRepresents a possible numerical value from an uncertain event
Random Variables
Discrete Random Variable
ContinuousRandom Variable
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Mean
Variance of a discrete random variable
Deviation of a discrete random variable
])[(X
)P(XE(X)][Xσ
2
N
1ii
2i
2
μ−=
−= ∑=
E
])E[(Xσσ 22 μ−==
∑=
==N
iii XPX
1)( E(X) μ
where:
E(X) = Expected value of the discrete random variable XXi = the ith outcome of XP(Xi) = Probability of the ith occurrence of X
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Example: Toss 2 coins, X = # of heads,
compute expected value of X:E(X) = (0 x 0.25) + (1 x 0.50) + (2 x 0.25)
= 1.0
X P(X)
0 0.25
1 0.50
2 0.25
compute standard deviation
)P(XE(X)][Xσ i2
i−= ∑
0.7070.50(0.25)1)(2(0.50)1)(1(0.25)1)(0σ 222 ==−+−+−=
Possible number of heads = 0, 1, or 2
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The Covariance
The covariance measures the strength of the linear relationship between two variables
The covariance:
1
cov( , ) [ ( )][( ( )] ( )
[( )( )]
N
i i i ii
x y
X Y X E X Y E Y P X Y
E X Yμ μ=
= − −
= − −
∑
where: X = discrete variable XXi = the ith outcome of XY = discrete variable YYi = the ith outcome of YP(XiYi) = probability of occurrence of the
ith outcome of X and the ith outcome of Y
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Correlation Coefficient
if ρ = 0 then X and Y are uncorrelated
Measure of dependence of variables X and Y is given by
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Probability Distributions
ContinuousProbability
Distributions
Binomial
Poisson
Probability Distributions
DiscreteProbability
Distributions
Normal
Uniform
ExponentialMultinomial
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The Uniform Distribution
The uniform distribution is a probability distribution that has equal probabilitiesfor all possible outcomes of the random variableAlso called a rectangular distribution
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Uniform Distribution Example
Example: Uniform probability distributionover the range 2 ≤ X ≤ 6:
2 6
0.25
f(X) = = 0.25 for 2 ≤ X ≤ 6b-a1
X
f(X)
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P(X=c) = probability of c successes in n trials,Random variable X denotes the number of ‘successes’ in n trials, (X = 0, 1, 2, ..., n)
n = sample size (number of trials or observations)
p = probability of “success” in a single trial(does not change from one trial to the next)
P(X=c)n
c ! n cp (1-p)c n c!
( )!=
−−
Binomial Distribution Formula
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n = 5 p = 0.1
n = 5 p = 0.5
Mean
0.2.4.6
0 1 2 3 4 5X
P(X)
.2
.4
.6
0 1 2 3 4 5X
P(X)
0
Binomial DistributionThe shape of the binomial distribution depends on the values of p and n
Here, n = 5 and p = 0.1
Here, n = 5 and p = 0.5
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Binomial Distribution Characteristics
Mean
Variance and Standard Deviation
npE(x)μ ==
p)-np(1σ2 =
p)-np(1σ =
Where n = sample sizep = probability of success(1 – p) = probability of failure
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Multinomial Distribution
P(Xi=Ci….Xk=Ck) = probability of having xi outputs in n trials,
Random variable Xi denotes the number of Observations of event i in ntrialsn = sample size (number of trials
or observations)pi= probability of event i
Example: You have 5 red, 4 blue and 3 yellow balls
(p =[ 0.42, 0.33, 0.25])
Question: probability that we get 2 red, 3 bule and 1
yellow;
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1 2
( ) ...., ,...,
kCCk
k
np p p
C C C⎛ ⎞
= ⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠
C
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The Normal Distribution
‘Bell Shaped’Symmetrical
Location is determined by the mean, μSpread is determined by the standard deviation. The random variable has an infinite theoretical range: + ∞ to − ∞
X
f(X)
μ
σ
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The formula for the normal probability density function is
Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159μ = the population meanσ = the population standard deviationX = any value of the continuous variable
2μ)/σ](1/2)[(Xe2π1f(X) −−=
σ
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Finding Normal Probabilities
Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and standard deviation 5.0Find P(X < 8.6) = 0.5 + P(8 < X < 8.6)
X
8.68.0