Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim and UCERF3 Using the ... · Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim...
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t α α Abstract Methodology Bayesian Inference Summary Results Logarithmic Scores Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim and UCERF3 Using the Bayesian Inference ● ● ● References Background Fault model selection ᶓ₀ →∞ → Logarithmic Scoring (LS) Java coding Fig. 3 Flowchart of HashMap logic used in our Java code Fig. 4 Logarithmic Scores of each forecast test, categorized by number of fault ruptures Fig. 2 Flowchart illustrating the process of additive smoothing for determining the Posterior Probabilities ᶓ₀ Fig. 1A The 9-fault model used for the final probabilistic analysis Carrizo Big Bend Mojave S San Bern San Gorg Coach Garlock San Bern Anza 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Fig. 1B An example of how each of the 512 combinations is formatted, representing an event where only the Anza fault ruptures.
Transcript of Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim and UCERF3 Using the ... · Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim...
t
αα
Abstract MethodologyBayesian Inference
Summary
ResultsLogarithmic Scores
Predictive Skill: A Study of RSQSim and UCERF3Using the Bayesian Inference
●●●
References
BackgroundFault model selection
₀→∞
→
Logarithmic Scoring (LS)
Java coding
Fig. 3 Flowchart of HashMap logic used in our Java code
Fig. 4 Logarithmic Scores of each forecast test, categorized by number of fault ruptures
Fig. 2 Flowchart illustrating the process of additive smoothing for determining the Posterior Probabilities
₀
Fig. 1A The 9-fault model used for the final probabilistic analysis
Carrizo Big Bend Mojave S San Bern San Gorg Coach Garlock San Bern Anza
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Fig. 1B An example of how each of the 512 combinations is formatted, representing an event where only the Anza fault ruptures.
