Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

4
!  A hands-on guide for model ing, designing, and leading your company's next radical innovation Playbook FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND Innovation

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Transcript of Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

  • 1A hands-on guide for modeling, designing, and leading your

    company's next radical innovation

    Playbook FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND Innovation

  • 2Playbook Development TeamTamara Carleton/>>>h^

    William Cockayne&/^hh^

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    Graphic design and layoutAnna Raikkonen&

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  • 3Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

    Playbook overviewWelcome to a guide for the strategic manager, the person who is responsible for innovation^OL[OLY[OPZTLHUZUKPUN[OLnext market, describing the future customer, or developing an amazing team who can reliably take new visions to new markets.

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  • 4Chapter 1. The Foresight FrameworkWe introduce a comprehensive framework [OH[VMMLYZHZ[Y\J[\YLKHWWYVHJO[VUKthe big idea. Chapter 2. How to Start Discover the different types of innovation paths, people, and industry contexts to help you start in the right place with the right mindset.

    Chapter 3. PerspectiveThe Context Map, Progression Curves, and Janus Cones methods broaden your view of the problem space, helping you to better anticipate the future.

    Chapter 4. OpportunityThe Generational Arcs, Future User, and Futuretelling methods identify your future customers in terms of macro, micro, and narrative views.

    Chapter 5. SolutionThe White Spots, Paper Mockups, and Change Path methods turn your idea into a tangible artifact and plan.

    Chapter 6. TeamThe Buddy Checks, VOICE Stars, and *YV^K*SV]LYZTL[OVKZOLSW`V\UKand keep the right people engaged in your pursuit of radical innovation.

    Chapter 7. VisionThe Vision Statement, DARPA Hard Test, HUK7H[OUKLYZTL[OVKZZL[[OLYPNO[organizational vision to direct your teams efforts.

    AppendixSupporting material includes a list of readings, suggested data sources, and other related items.

    Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

    TABLE OF CONTENTS9

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  • 5PERSPECTIVE OPPORTUNITY SOLUTION TEAM VISION

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    Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

    METHOD SHORTCUTS

  • 6FUTURE VISION FOR PAPER >

    10 WORKSHOP LESSONS FROM AN INDUSTRY VETERAN^

    A SECOND FUTURE FOR UBICOM'd

    HOW YLE DEFINED A NEW FORESIGHT CAPABILITY&

    SEEKING VISIONARIES AT DARPAhZW

    PROGRAM MANAGERS AT DARPAZW

    DARPAS LESSONS FOR INDUSTRY>ZW

    TECHNOLOGY VISIONS AT DARPAZ

    THE HEILMEIER CATECHISM AT DARPA>

    THE ORIGINAL VISION OF EPCOTZW,

    Multiple case studies are presented throughout the playbook for deeper insight into how various organizations have applied the methods or approached long-range planning.

    Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

    A variety of case studies

  • 7Playbook for Strategic Foresight and Innovation

    How to use the playbookThe playbook adopts two simple schemas to help you follow the material TVYLX\PJRS `;OLYZ[ZJOLTHPZHZL[VMJVSVYLKKV[Z[OH[PKLU[PM`KPMMLYLU[types of content. The second schema applies to each methods presentation.

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    Instructions1. Agree on a broad topic or

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    2. Draw an outline for a Context Map or use the worksheet template in the playbook.

    3. Start talking with your team about dimensions as they arise. Points of intense discussion or even disagreement are good to include in your Context Map.

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    5. Zarrives at a map (or set of maps) that captures your problem space

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    ORIGINALS MISSING

    2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton69

    CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

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  • FORESIGHT FRAMEworkChaptER 1

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    Foresight Framework 10

    Five planning phases 11

    Two guiding principles 14

    The methodology 15

    Underlying theories 18

    An integrated system 21

    Case study: Paper 24

  • 10

    What do you need to do to plan your next big idea?

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    Five planning phases

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    Two guiding principles

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    The methodology

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    CASE STUDY | Future vision for paper

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  • HOW TO STARTChaptER 2

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    Lets start with questions 30

    Why a playbook 31

    :VTLKLUP[PVUZ 35

    Types of growth 36

    Finding inspiration 38

    Who leads change 39

    Which industries 41

    Viewpoint: Revisionist 42

    Sample problems 43

    Learning process 45

    :WLJPJVIQLJ[P]LZ 47

    Starting midway 49

    Teams or alone 51

    Finding data 52

    Case study: 10 lessons 53

  • 30

    With the basic framework in mind, how should you begin approaching your group's innovation process?

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    10 Reasons Not to Us

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    9. It wont help you predict the future. > t d

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    What do you see as the most rational path to innovation? What does your leadership team believe?

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    Where should we look for ideas? @V\TH`UK`V\YPUP[PHSMVJ\ZPUthree simple places.

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    This playbook can be applied easily to different types of organizations and contexts.

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  • 42

    Country and cultureK W & h ^ /K

    I am a social scientist in Finland, and our usual Scandinavian planning principle is to plan rigorously and execute once. After working with several American colleagues from Silicon Valley, I have discovered an unexpected difference in their approach to problem-solving.

    In Silicon Valley, they tend to L_LJ\[L YZ[ YL]PZL HUK [OLUexecute again. While I can see the

    value in rapid learning cycles, at the same time, this approach creates a headache for Finns who have already settled contentedly and deliberately ^P[O[OLPYYZ[JYLH[PVU

    As we work with more foreign innovators, Finnish managers should be exposed earlier to other ways of workingultimately leading to better harmony and making iteration a welcome part of our planning process.

    VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinking

  • 43

    What types of problems are other companies and innovation managers addressing with the methods in this playbook?

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    The short answer is both. All the methods can be used independently or within groups.

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    PERSPECTIVEChaptER 3

    Shortcuts

    Phase I: Perspective 59

    Context Maps 61

    Progression Curves 70

    Case study: Ubicom 78

    Janus Cones 81

  • Have you ever spent time in a meeting and after 30 minutes, realized the group should have discussed what has happened before in your organization, let alone industry? Or wondered when the brainstorm youre in will ever converge to the main points?

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    Context Maps capture the themes that emerge when discussing complex problems.

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    3. As we talk, we note the biggest themes in Halls report, as one theme per dimension

    4. A team member captures related points near certain themes, so we dont forget our dialogue later

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    We realize a blend of data-driven and lifestyle-driven elements define a perfect city

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  • 67

    Tips & lessons from others

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    Additional examples

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    CONTEXT MAPS | method worksheet

  • 70

    Progression Curves represent the evolution of changes in terms of [LJOUVSVNPJHSZVJPHSHUKV[OLYS[LYZ

    Progression Curves

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    1. After reviewing my Context Map, I decide to look at the evolution of interactive touchscreens for my first Progression Curve

    2. I draw a wavy line quickly,

    knowing that I can always extend

    an end point or format later.

    4. I add more data points from history,

    realizing that I will want to continue

    extending this curve during the course of

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    3. I keep my first pass simple, noting major developments and dates that help me understand how the field has developed

  • 74

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    This method helps me

    become a fast expert of

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    major players in the

    field at different points

    Overall, I am able to refine my

    questions for finding potential

    future applications in robotic

    surgery

  • 76

    Additional examples

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton77

    PROGRESSION CURVES | method worksheet

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    Janus Cones looks backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.

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  • 82

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    New paradigm of commuting

    Time spent traveling in cars

    Traffic jams Rush hour

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    Variety of car models

    Car as a lifestyle / status symbol

    Dangers of driving

    Family trips & activities by car

    Car tinkering passions

    Rising costs of car ownership

    Cars as displays of wealth

    Seat belt safety campaigns

    Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

    Cars shipped as luggage

    Stress of car buying

    Infrastructure funding

    Multiple cars in a family

    Different car by life stage

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    Mobility as a basic need

    Parking is an issue

    Urban planners design for roads and transport

    New paradigm of commuting

    Time spent traveling in cars

    Traffic jams Rush hour

    Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

    Variety of car models

    Car as a lifestyle / status symbol

    Dangers of driving

    Family trips & activities by car

    Car tinkering passions

    Rising costs of car ownership

    Cars as displays of wealth

    Seat belt safety campaigns

    Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

    Cars shipped as luggage

    Stress of car buying

    Infrastructure funding

    Multiple cars in a family

    Different car by life stage

    1. Our priority is to focus on the

    past, so we sketch a big cone on

    the whiteboard with its nose pointing right to today

    2. One of the first comments is about Fords assembly line, which led to a consumer choice in cars, so we note this historical point somewhere far left inside the cone

    3. After a few more data points, we see the timeframe emerge, so we note the major time periods in 20-year increments under the cone

    4. We draw vertical arc

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    5. We add more data points so that the cone feels complete to our team

  • 85

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  • 86

    Mobility as a basic need

    Parking is an issue

    Urban planners design for roads and transport

    New paradigm of commuting

    Time spent traveling in cars

    Traffic jams Rush hour

    Concept of alone time in cars with self or others

    Variety of car models

    Car as a lifestyle / status symbol

    Dangers of driving

    Family trips & activities by car

    Car tinkering passions

    Rising costs of car ownership

    Cars as displays of wealth

    Seat belt safety campaigns

    Driving as a rite of passage (first license)

    Cars shipped as luggage

    Stress of car buying

    Infrastructure funding

    Multiple cars in a family

    Different car by life stage

    We discover the majority of our group knows the last 15 years well from personal experience and then relies on

    movies and grandparent anecdotes for knowledge about the prior years

    We start to see a pattern about the changing definition of premium in cars, starting with premium as wealth displays

    Due to our groups varied backgrounds, the Janus Cones became a useful neutral tool to bring us quickly together

  • 87

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  • 88

    Additional examples

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    JANUS CONES | method worksheet

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  • OPPORTUNITYChaptER 4

    Shortcuts

    Phase II: Opportunity 92

    Generational Arcs 94

    Future User 103

    Viewpoint: Acting out 113

    Futuretelling 114

  • Now that you have developed some perspective about your WYVISLTZZWHJLOV^KV`V\UKthe emerging opportunity?

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  • Lets look at an exampleK D /

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    t

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    Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010

    AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

    W W

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    zKKDZ^'W s W

  • Instructions ^

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    WW

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  • Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010

    W W

    WKW

    h>d/KE

    '/^dZ/hd/KE

    'EZd/KEz't^s

    zKKDZ^'W s W

    1. We decide to

    focus on our

    country as the p

    rimary

    target populatio

    n

    2. We rely on World Bank reports, plus company records,

    as our primary data sources

    3. We decide to present both todays data and the estimated shift in 20 years (without accounting for any immigration changes)

    4. We then write down some characteristics of the different generations

  • Drawing insights & implicationsd ' ,

    t d

    d

    ,

    t

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    t

  • Source: Work Bank data, Deutsche Bank Research, Johnson Controls Oxygenz Country Report: Germany, 2010

    W W

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    '/^dZ/hd/KE

    'EZd/KEz't^s

    zKKDZ^'W s W

    We see our sweet spot in recent

    customer growth is tied closely with our countrys biggest population

    In 20 years, this same age group would drop by nearly a quarter, raising some concerns about available markets in the future

    Part of our groups discussion focuses on how our company could better address changing generational needs

  • 100

    Tips & lessons from others z

    z

    ZE&h^h^

    d

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    z:

    Z&>d/KEtlabels in your primary market?

  • 101

    Additional examples

    K & d&

    ^

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    GENERATIONAL ARCS | method worksheet

    AGE DISTRIBUTION -table comes here!

    WKWh

    >d/K

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  • 103

    -\[\YL

  • 104

    Lets look at an exampleD/ ^ ^ d ,

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  • 105Source: Neeraj Sonalkar, Stanford University, ME410, 2008

    ^ h D > t

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    1996 2008 2020

  • 106

    Instructions

    Ez

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    h

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    ^ d

  • 107

    1. We describe our primary

    customer today and note

    his age

    2. We discuss what his

    lifestyle, choices, and values

    were 12 years ago and how

    they have changed over time

    (we pick this timeframe

    based on two R&D cycles for

    our company)

    3. Drawing from our earl

    ier

    generational research, we

    describe our young futur

    e

    customer as he exists toda

    y

    5. We compare and contrast the two people at their starting ages and also at their target ages, looking to understand what has changed (and what has not changed) over time

    4. The target age of our future user is the same as as todays customer

  • 108

    Drawing insights & implicationsd E^ /& ^

    h E ,d

    &

    ^ , /&h

    ,

    Y t

    ,

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    ,

  • Although both users enjoy cricket and

    shop foreign brands, they grew up under

    different conditions in Indiawhich

    affects their expectations about the

    economy, government, and industry

    By drawing from real people, we build a realistic persona for a future user that can drive our R&D planning

    Both users value fa

    mily and

    education in their li

    ves

  • 110

    Tips & lessons from others d

    ^

    '

    ^K

    h

    /ds

    Z&>d/KEt

  • 111

    Additional examples

    &h

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    FUTURE USER | method worksheet

    ^

    __________________________

    __________________________

    __________________________

    __________________________

    W^d&,Z

    W^d&,Z

    W^d&,Z

    zZ

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  • 113

    ;OLYL PZHUVSKZH`PUNHZ [HSRH[P]Las a Finn. The classic Finnish stereotype is someone who is [HJP[\YU HUK ZVSLTU HUK [OLnational characteristic is of polite YLZLY]L.LULYHSS`ZWLHRPUN^ L[HRLbusiness seriously and expect to ILQ\KNLKI`V\YL_WLY[PZLUV[[OLway we present ourselves.*LY[HPU PUUV]H[PVU TL[OVKZ

    may challenge that comfort zone. In particular, the FutureTelling TL[OVKYLX\PYLZLSLTLU[ZVM[OLH[LYand group role-playing. Like most -PUUZ0WYLMLY[V[LSST`[LHTZPKLHZJHSTS `UV[HJ[[OLTV\[;Y\[O PZ ^L TPNO[ TPZZ V\[ VU

    many insights that acting out in MYVU[VMV[OLYZTPNO[IYPUN\Z9VSLWSH`PUN PZ UV[ Q\Z[ H [LJOUPX\L [Vcommunicate an idea to another WLYZVU" P[ PZ\S[PTH[LS`HTL[OVKVM

    ZLSMYLLJ[PVU>OPSLHJ[PUNV\[^LOH]L [V JVUZPKLY [OL YVSL ^L HYLplaying. We have to identify with [OH[ YVSL HUK PTHNPUL V\YZLS]LZ PU[OH[JOHYHJ[LYZZP[\H[PVU0UHKKP[PVUH SP]L HJ[ WYV]PKLZ TVYL Z[PT\SP [Vreact to than a narrative could, so [OLMLLKIHJR^LYLJLP]LMYVTV[OLYZbecomes much richer and more ZWLJPJ-VY[\UH[LS ` WLYMVYTPUN PZ H ZRPSS

    that can be learned. While I probably JHU[ YLTV]L [OL ULY]V\ZULZZ[OH[ UH[\YHSS` JVTLZ ^P[O [Y`PUNsomething new, I can make it TVYL HJJLW[HISL I` WYHJ[PJLThe FutureTelling method can IL LUHJ[LK PU THU` ZP[\H[PVUZ PUV\Y^VYR[V[LSSJVSSLHN\LZHIV\[V\Ynew ideasthat may help all of us [V JOHSSLUNL V\Y V^U Z[LYLV[`WLZabout what is right and what is true.

    VIEWPOINT | Acting out for the Finns

  • 114

    Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.

    When to use it d

    d

    d

    Why its helpfulW W t t

    Futuretelling

    & ^ & ds d

    d d

    What you getz

  • 115

    Source: William Cockayne, 2008

    Lets look at an example E d K

    d t

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  • 116

    Instructions

    t

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    &

    W

    >

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  • 117

    1. We decide to show the doctor performing a critical surgery on the battlefield.

    3-4. Everyone, including the patient, had some lines to say that conveyed the importance of using a portable energy generator.2. Our story

    had four roles:

    a doctor, medical

    assistant, patient,

    and fellow soldier.

    5-6. We used simple props, such as giant paper scalpel, to help add some humor to our storytelling.

  • 118

    Drawing insights & implicationsd & d E ^

    d / d

    > >

    d

  • Once our audience sawinstead of hearing us describethe users need in context, they began to understand the critical value of our opportunity

    We gained more

    empathy for the

    users situation

    , and

    good design beg

    ins

    by understand

    ing

    basic human ne

    eds

    Everyone had a

    role to play

    in the productio

    n, and it

    united us more a

    s a team

  • 120

    Tips & lessons from others

    /

    ^

    'D

    h&

    D

    ^

    Z&>d/KEWhen do you see live storytelling used in yourWhat makes it work?

  • 121

    Additional examples

    ^

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    FUTURETELLING | METHOD WORKSHEET

    W z

    Describe your future user in one sentence or less. What does your user care about most?

    What do you want your audience to understand about

    tfuture? Keep it to a simple scene or two, if possible.

    What other people (or objects) will your user interact with in

    How do you want the audience to respond at the end of the

  • 123

    d

    Walt Disney

    WKd

  • 124

    SOLUTIONChaptER 5

    Shortcuts

    Phase III: Solution 125

    White Spots 127

    Paper Mockups 136

    Dark Horse Prototype 145

    Change Paths 149

    Case study: Yle 158

  • 125

    The third phase in the Foresight Framework brings you to a solution. 0UUV]H[P]LZVS\[PVUZHYLZWLJPJ[Vyour industry, users, organization, and individual skills.

    dd d d

    W /// z

    t^ WD W

    Phase III: Solution

  • 126

    PHASE III: SOLUTIONd

    White Spots

    Paper Mockups

    Change Paths

    is the Dark Horse Prototype.

    Y ,

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    t

  • 127

    White Spots is a strategic method for studying the opportunity space KLULKI`[^VZHSPLU[PZZ\LZ

    WHY IT'S HELPFUL d

    d

    WHEN TO USE ITdt^ t ^

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    White Spots

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  • 128^
  • Instructions

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    &d

    tt

    ^ d

  • 130

    1. I start by drawing

    a big cross

    2-3. I pick cost and utility as the top two dimensions from my previous Context Maps to create my two axes

    4. I decide to start simply

    with military and

    civilian as endpoints for

    utility against high and

    low cost

    5. I identify an extreme example for each quadrants corner to pretest the matrix

    6. I add many examples on the matrix, using arrows to show movement

    7-9. I mark one white spot

    and ponder what could

    realistically exist today

    as a new industry vision

    Source: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

  • 131

    Drawing insights & implicationsd / t ^

    / d

    t t ^ d

    /

    ,

    Y t

    t

    ,

    ,

  • 132

    Although I developed a Progression Curve of flying cars from the movies and books, I focus on real solutions in my White Spots analysis

    This 2x2 visual helped

    me tell a complex story

    about the market

    opportunity and

    competition in terms of

    the two biggest criteria of

    cost and useSource: Kevin Reynolds, Stanford University, ME410, 2009

  • 133

    Tips & lessons from others /

    >t^d

    /

    h

    dt^

    Z&>d/KEBefore your team picks, which two dimensions would you start your analysis with? Why?

  • 134

    Additional examples

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    WHITE SPOTS | method worksheet

  • 136

    Paper Mockups asks participants to physically model a future system.

    When to use it d

    d

    d

    d

    Why its helpful& WD z W^h

    Paper Mockups

    d

    d d t

    What you getd tWD

  • 137

    Source: Ming-Li Chai, 2008

    Lets look at an example Z WD dd d

    h^ / d

    WD d

  • 138

    Instructions

    &

    &

    E

    ^

    ^ d

    ,

    Y t

    t

    tt

    t t

    ,

  • 1. We choose to build the

    entire system because we

    want to understand how

    the various parts interact

    2-3. We use materials nearby to build quickly, including string and colored paper

    4. One of our team members sits down to explain our idea to a group of colleagues

  • 140

    Drawing insights & implications dZ

    & ^K

    d

    t W >

    /

  • 141

    The act of building also helped us understand more about our target users and how they might react to different parts

    While sketching is helpful, building our idea into a 3D

    object gave us more insights into our own innovation idea

    Just having a physical mockup in

    hand generated intense curiosity

    among colleaguesnormally, we

    have to fight for their attention

    during the usual slideshows

  • 142

    Tips & lessons from others

    ^

    d

    K

    //

    Z&>d/KEHow might you embed paper mockups into your early market research or

  • 143

    Additional examples

    ^

  • PAPER MOCKUPS | method worksheet

    Feel free to use this piece of paper in your mockup.

  • 145

    A variation of the Paper Mockup, Dark Horse prototypes are three-dimensional physical prototypes that are built to explore a previous PU[\P[PVUVYYLQLJ[LKPKLH

    When to use it d

    d

    Why its helpful/ > W

    DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE

    d,

    ,

    What you getz

  • 146

    Instructions Z

    Drawing insights & implications , Z t t d

    d

    d

    / d

    ,

    Y t

    >

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  • 147

    We made one dramatic yet important change: by moving the string from the people to the houses, we emphasized the social network (and transfer of knowledge) among the houses

  • 148

    DARK HORSE PROTOTYPE | method worksheet

    Tear your previous Paper Mockup in half.

    Discuss.

  • Change Paths are data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

    When to use it d

    d

    Why its helpfulKz

    t d W

    /

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    W

    What you getd W / z

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton150

    /d/

    d ^: d >

    Lets look at an example t Z /

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  • 151

    Instructions

    tz

    tDy

    /

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    Wd

    ^ d

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  • 152

    1. Boeing and Airbus take two different

    views of the future: one imagines the

    ultimate point-to-point airplane for

    customers and the other imagines a

    luxury liner between major airport hubs

    3. We mark the two b

    ig

    decisions each compa

    ny

    must take to achieve

    their

    respective visions with

    a X

    further along on the

    timeline

    4. Boeing also pursued new technologies and materials for greater airplane efficiency, which was largely out of their controla decision they could have placed off their path

    2. We note the first s

    tep

    each company can do

    on

    their path to action at

    the

    start of the timeline

  • 153

    Drawing insights & implicationsdZ //

    W

    / ^ h D d

    d

    K

    & Z

    d

  • 154

    We realized t

    hat the same

    future can s

    upport multi

    ple,

    even competi

    ng, visions

    Boeing actually started with a different vision that crystallized into the 787. Only in hindsight does the future look like a clear and straight path!

    Both companies achieved the future they wanted by doing things that they could affect directly

  • 155

    Tips & lessons from others ^

    /Dt/

    d

    Z

    zW:

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    zW

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    Z&>d/KEttake tomorrow to set you on this future path?

  • 156

    Additional examples

    ^

    W

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    CHANGE PATHS | method worksheet

    /'D/>^dKE

    KhZs/^/KE

    /'D/>^dKE^W/&/d/KEdKz

  • 158

    W,&z d W

    Marketplace challengesz dd

    &

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    d z ,z z &z / z

    CASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability

    Towards participatory renewald d z

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  • Heralds of changeW , d d zd

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    A map of current practicest t^,

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    A sense of shared ownershipd :D

  • 160

    & / d

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    Using stories to communicate contextd d

    d t d

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    dz/ z

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  • 161

    /

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    Profiles of the future audience ' & h z d' t & d z

    & h

    z / & z D

    The importance of real-world evidence t

  • 162

    z zd

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    The Four Rooms concept z

    d

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  • 163

    dZ z / / d >/& zZ

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    FROM PROTOTYPE TO VISION TO ACTION, d & Z z /z t

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  • 164

    ,d Bill Taylor&

    WZ

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  • 165

    TEAMChaptER 6

    Shortcuts

    Phase IV: Team 166

    Buddy Checks 168

    *HZLZ[\K`!+(97(QVIHK 177

    Voice Stars 178

    Case study: DARPA PMs 187

    Crowd Clovers 188

    Case study: DARPA lessons 197

  • 166

    You have the start of a great idea. Now you want to know: how do Itake this idea back to my group? How can I take it inside my organization, so the idea may V\YPZOPU[VTLHUPUNM\SHJ[PVU&Or what if I dont have a team yet? What should I do next?

    h d / t

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    Phase IV: Team

    d sK/^

  • 167

    PHASE IV: TEAMd

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  • 168

    Buddy Checks evaluates potential new co-founders, partners, and teammates by showing their reaction level to new ideas.

    When to use it d

    d

    Why its helpful& K

    Buddy Checks

    d

    d

    What you get

  • Lets look at an example d

    d W h

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    1

    2 3

    4 5

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  • 170

    Instructions ^

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  • 171

    1. I volunteer to present our

    rough

    idea, and Anna and Jesse pr

    etend

    to be two colleagues we know

    whom we hope join our effor

    ts

    2. We agree our first colleague

    sits between levels 4 and 5

    because his first reaction is to

    volunteer for the team and his

    later reactions are to suggest

    minor improvements to refine

    our raw idea

    3. After some more rehearsal

    with Anna, we find two

    scenarios that we expect will

    prompt the reaction we want

    from our second colleague,

    who wed like to join as a

    group leader

    1

    2 3

    4 5

    6 7

  • 172

    Drawing insights & implications d

    d /

    > Z

    1

    t/

    2E

    dt

    3

    /t

    4

    //

    5d

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    6

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  • 173

    We realize others have

    an instant gut

    reaction to new ideas,

    which reveals their

    true feelings about

    playing along

    The extra rehearsals lets us test a few different ways of telling our idea to generate the higher level reactioninstead of starting at a lower level and working up to the reaction we wanted from the start of the interaction1

    2 3

    4 5

    6 7

  • 174

    Tips & lessons from others K

    /

    Z

    d/KEtthink you sit at most commonly?

  • 175

    Additional examples

    & Z

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    BUDDY CHECKS | method worksheet

    1

    2 3

    4 5

    6 7

    >

    >E

    >

    >

    >d

    >

    >

  • 177Source: The Economist magazine, 2008

    177

    ^ h^Z W ZW ZW

    t d

    Are you a scientist or engineer with a radical idea (or ideas) that you believe could provide meaningful change of lasting EHQHWIRUWKH86PLOLWDU\"Would you like to lead the countrys most capable academic and industrial experts to make that idea become reality in a period of MXVWDIHZ\HDUV"

    If so, you should consider QVPUPUN[OL+LMLUZL(K]HUJLK9LZLHYJO7YVQLJ[Z(NLUJ`(DARPA) as a program manager.

    :KDWLVD'$53$30"A DARPA program manager is

    > An idea generator > A technical expert > An entrepreneur> A visionary> A patriot dedicated to national service

    CASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPA

    ZW / ZW

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  • 178

    VOICE Stars is a talent diagnostic that measures the leadership aptitude for radical innovation of an individual or team.

    When to use it d

    d

    d

    Why its helpful' dsK/

    VOICE Stars

    ^

    d

    What you getz

  • Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

    Lets look at an exampled h sK/ ^

    s K / sK/ d

  • 180

    Instructions

    sK/sK/

    d

    ^ d

    dsK/

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    ,

    Y t

    t t

    t

    ^ d

  • 181

    1. Our f

    irst step is to dr

    aw the

    underlying sta

    r shape

    2-3. We write a VOI

    CE

    attribute at the end o

    f each

    line and mark five ti

    ck

    marks for scoring p

    er line

    4-5. We take turns scoring ourselves across all the attributes, drawing a connecting line between individual scores

    6. We discuss different activities our group does that helps foster a climate for each attribute

  • 182

    Drawing insights & implicationsdsK/ ^ & K

    d

    d K / d Zd d

    s

    KZ

    /

    ^

    ^

  • 183

    We realize our team scores most high on being curious, which

    helps explain why we all appreciate exploring new topics and possibilities together

    Only one of our team is r

    egularly

    voracious, and we discuss

    how we

    rely on him to hear the la

    test news

    updates and scan the ma

    rket for us

    We find it tough to

    think of examples we

    do to provoke or start

    new actions, which

    leads to a good

    discussion about

    what other activities

    and even people we

    should get to help us

    grow in this area

  • 184

    Tips & lessons from others sK/

    Z&>d/KEWho do you know that best exhibits all four sK/

  • 185

    Additional examples

    K Z

  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    VOICE STARS | method worksheet

  • 187

    ^ h^ Z W ZW WD

    The DARPA ethosWD t WD /WD^

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    CASE STUDY | Program Managers at DARPA

    ZW D/

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  • 188

    Crowd Clovers maps the various related components of a personal network focused on advancing new innovation ideas.

    When to use it d

    d

    d

    Why its helpful d

    Crowd Clovers

    d d ' /

    What you get

  • Source: Tamara Carleton, 2012

    Lets look at an exampleK K ZK

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  • CA

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    1. I first draw the outline for a

    big four-leaf clover, using different colors per leaflet to signify the network actionI desire for my unit

    2. I write the peo

    ple who

    provoke me mos

    t in the

    purple leaflet (pu

    rple =

    provoke)

    3. I write the people who grow

    and expand our ideas with

    access to more resources in the

    green leaflet (green = grow)

    4. I write the people who realize our efforts and push us toward action in the red leaflet (red = realize)

    5. I write the people who broadcast and circulate our ideas within their networks in the blue leaflet (blue = broadcast)6. I draw boxes around the people whom we relate to formally (like our boss and other division leads)

  • Drawing insights & implicationsK >/ / ,

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  • I was re

    lieved to see tha

    t we

    did not rely on

    the same

    small group of

    people for all

    our innovation

    efforts

    I see we rely most heavily on

    formal ties for two areas of network action, namely to

    find resources and to push us to execute

    I know few peop

    le

    who help promo

    te our

    ideas and expose

    us to

    other networks,

    an

    area I decide to

    improve this ye

    ar by

    hiring a person

    to

    build our develo

    per

    community

    CA

    TALY

    STS

    CONNECTORS

    PROMOTERS

    ENA

    BLER

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  • Tips & lessons from others

    d

    K

    /

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton211

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton223

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  • 2012 William Cockayne & Tamara Carleton

    Pathfinders | method worksheet

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  • 240

    APPENDIX

    Shortcuts

    Sponsors 241

    Development team 243

    Research partners 246

    Terms of use 248

    Suggested readings 249

    Data sources 255

  • 241

    The playbook team gratefully acknowledges generous support from Tekes and the Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT) in Finland.

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    Data sources: Location & population

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    Data sources: Finland

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    Tamara Carletonv.1.7 / 09:04:13

    PLAYBOOK FOR STRATEGIC FORESIGHT AND INNOVATION (cover)Playbook overviewTable of contentsMethod shortcutsA variety of case studiesHow to use the playbook

    CHAPTER 1 | FORESIGHT FRAMEWORKThe Foresight FrameworkFive planning phasesTwo guiding principlesThe methodologyUnderlying theoriesAn integrated systemCASE STUDY | Future vision for paper

    CHAPTER 2 | HOW TO STARTLets start with questionsWhy a playbook?What definitions are we using?What type of growth do we seek?Where do we find inspiration?Who leads change in innovation?Which contexts or industries work best?VIEWPOINT | Revisionist thinkingWhat types of problems are addressed?What is the learning process?Can we start with a specific objective?Where do we start midway in a project?Should we work in teams or alone?Where can we find credible data?CASE STUDY | 10 workshop lessons from an industry veteran

    CHAPTER 3 | PERSPECTIVE Phase I: PerspectiveContext MapsProgression CurvesCASE STUDY | Crafting a new vision after UbicomJanus Cones

    CHAPTER 4 | OPPORTUNITYPhase II: OpportunityGenerational ArcsFuture UserVIEWPOINT | Acting out for the FinnsFuturetelling

    CHAPTER 5 | SOLUTIONPhase III: SolutionWhite SpotsPaper MockupsDark Horse PrototypeChange PathsCASE STUDY | How YLE defined a new foresight capability

    CHAPTER 6 | TEAMPhase IV: TeamBuddy ChecksCASE STUDY | A job posting for DARPAVOICE StarsCASE STUDY | Program managers at DARPACrowd CloversCASE STUDY | DARPAs lessons for industry

    CHAPTER 7 | VISIONPhase V: VisionVision StatementCASE STUDY | Technology visions at DARPADARPA Hard TestCASE STUDY | The Heilmeier Catechism at DARPACASE STUDY | The original vision of EpcotPathfinders

    APPENDIXAbout our sponsorsAbout the development teamAbout our research partnersTerms of useSuggested readingsData sources: Emerging technologiesData sources: Location & populationData sources: Future trendsData sources: Finland