Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional

Responses to Environmental Conditions

AN ADAPTATION OF THE SHIRAZ MODEL FOR ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS

2008 Steelhead Management MeetingMarch 4–6 2008

Ray HilbornLucy Flynn

Dave BeauchampBrad Thompson

Craig Busack

Modeling Objective

Population dynamics

ΔN

Habitat management

Human actions

VSP criteria

Habitat response

ΔP

ΔS

ΔD

Fish response

Habitat Conditions

Road decommissioning

Change in levels of fine sediment

Change in egg-to-fry survival

e.g.,Bartz et al.

2006

e.g.,Scheuerell et al.

2006

Map source: http://w

ww

.sharedsalmonstrategy.org

Puget Sound Western WA

Ward et al. (2006) – shift in smolt age after habitat restoration and nutrient addition

Thrower et al. (2004) – development of resident population from anadromous

Chris Frederiksen (Biologist, Yakama Nation; personal comment) – steady increase in proportion of females amongst anadromous fish

Life-History Plasticity in Steelhead

Effect of Environment on Life-History Trajectories

Model

Diversity Criterion Cramer

EDTN-L ORCM

RIPPLE

SHIRAZ

Migration in freshwater X X XAnadromySmolt ageMigration at seaAge at return migrationRun season (S vs. W)Iteroparity

Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

Spawners

Recruits

Multistage Beverton-Holt Model

1

1

11

1c

SpSpR

Moussalli and Hilborn 1986

Multistage Beverton-Holt Model

1

1

11

1c

SpSpR

2

12

122

1cRp

RpR

S

R1

R2

Moussalli and Hilborn 1986

n

i i

i

nn

cP

PC

1

n

iin pP

1

01.01615.01

1

1 Tp

1

1

11

1c

SpSpR

p,c = f(habitat conditions)

Scheuerell et al. 2006

ififif

TT

T

6.226.2216

16

Resident & Anadromous O. mykiss

Genetics Seamons et al. (2004) – 39% of juvenile steelhead could

not be assigned one parent, and 88% of those could not be assigned a male parent.

Araki et al. (2007) – “high levels of reproductive contribution of nonanadromous parents to anadromous offspring when anadromous run size is small”

Observation McMillan et al. (2007) – 14.5% of attempted matings with

wild anadromous females were by wild resident males.

Detailed Tracking in Model

Life-history stages include the periods of time between each decision-making point

O. mykiss born of anadromous mothers and those born of resident mothers are tracked separately.

Males and females are tracked separately The average body size of each of fish is

tracked using a bioenergetics model.

Life-History Stage

Area Area

G

G

G G

G

Life-History Stage

Life-History Stage

Life-History Stage

Groups within life-history stages identified by

Area of birth Area of current residence Year of birth Sex Life-history stage History

Life-history trajectory Spatial history

Somatic growth (tracked only through juvenile stages)

Detailed tracking

Resident female eggs

Resident YOY

Resident age 1

Resident age 1+

Resident age 2

Resident age 2+

Resident age 3

Mature resident

Ocean year 1

Anadromous spawners

Resident spawners

Anadromous female eggs

Anadromous YOY

Anadromous age 1

Anadromous age 1+

Anadromous age 2

Anadromous age 2+

Anadromous age 3

Incubation stages

Freshwater stages

Marine stages

Spawning stagesOcean year 2

Ocean year 3

Ocean post-spawning

Emphasize the four categories of stages

Note that the key concern is freshwater stages…

Resident female eggs

Resident YOY

Resident age 1

Resident age 1+

Resident age 2

Resident age 2+

Resident age 3

Resident age 3+

Mature resident

Ocean year 1

Anadromous spawners

Resident spawners

Anadromous female eggs

Anadromous YOY

Anadromous age 1

Anadromous age 1+

Anadromous age 2

Anadromous age 2+

Anadromous age 3

Anadromous age 3+

Incubation stages

Freshwater stages

Marine stages

Spawning stages

Ocean year 2

Ocean year 3

Ocean post-spawning

Resident female eggs

Resident YOY

Resident age 1

Resident age 1+

Resident age 2

Resident age 2+

Resident age 3

Resident age 3+

Mature resident

Ocean year 1

Anadromous spawners

Resident spawners

Anadromous female eggs

Anadromous YOY

Anadromous age 1

Anadromous age 1+

Anadromous age 2

Anadromous age 2+

Anadromous age 3

Anadromous age 3+

Incubation stages

Freshwater stages

Marine stages

Spawning stages

Ocean year 2

Ocean year 3

Ocean post-spawning

Resident female eggs

Resident YOY

Resident age 1

Resident age 1+

Resident age 2

Resident age 2+

Resident age 3

Resident age 3+

Mature resident

Ocean year 1

Anadromous spawners

Resident spawners

Anadromous female eggs

Anadromous YOY

Anadromous age 1

Anadromous age 1+

Anadromous age 2

Anadromous age 2+

Anadromous age 3

Anadromous age 3+

Incubation stages

Freshwater stages

Marine stages

Spawning stages

Ocean year 2

Ocean year 3

Ocean post-spawning

Resident female eggs

Resident YOY

Resident age 1

Resident age 1+

Resident age 2

Resident age 2+

Resident age 3

Resident age 3+

Mature resident

Ocean year 1

Anadromous spawners

Resident spawners

Anadromous female eggs

Anadromous YOY

Anadromous age 1

Anadromous age 1+

Anadromous age 2

Anadromous age 2+

Anadromous age 3

Anadromous age 3+

Incubation stages

Freshwater stages

Marine stages

Spawning stages

Ocean year 2

Ocean year 3

Ocean post-spawning

Issue: Ecologically Overlapping Stages

Figure from Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

Competitive Overlap

j

jj

jjj

cNp

NpN

11

83.2))((log61.2)(log 1010 gg lt

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iijijj TDqcE

j

jj

jjj

cEp

NpN

11

j

jjTDPHS 100

Percent Habitat Saturation (PHS; Grant et al. 1998)

Effective number of competitors (E)

Functional Relationships

Habitatfcp ,

Habitatfr

BodySizefb ba

Poster!

Thanks…

WDFW: Anne Marshall, Jim Scott, Brett Barkdull, Tasha Geiger, Mat Gillum, Thom Johnson, Randy Cooper, Joanne Schuett-Hames, Hal Michael

NMFS: Krista Bartz, James Battin, Jeff Hard, Beth Sanderson, George Pess, Jon Honea, Mark Scheuerell, Kelly Burnett, Pete Lawson

UW: Todd Seamons, Tom Quinn, Willy Eldridge Others: Chris Frederiksen, Bill McMillan, John

McMillan, Ray Beamesderfer, Bill Graeber, Yetta Jager, Larry Lestelle, Steven Ralph, Pamela Woods, Bob Vadas