‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University.

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LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University REVAMP, Wits University

Transcript of ‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University.

‘‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR

DRR AND CCADRR AND CCA

Coleen VogelColeen VogelREVAMP, Wits UniversityREVAMP, Wits University

Ave

rage

ΔT

°A

vera

ge Δ

prei

p (%

)

A mixed picture of uncertainty and agreement.

Regions of low consensus related in part to spatial positioning of boundaries of the climate processes

AfricaA

1B:

1980

–199

9 a

nd

208

0–20

99

IPCC AR4: Fig 11.2

Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate to climate change can be change can be exacerbated exacerbated by the by the presence ofpresence of other stressesother stresses..

(Ch 9) (Ch 9)

Some synergies between Some synergies between DRR and CCADRR and CCA

DRRDRR National priority + local with National priority + local with institutional basis for institutional basis for implementation;implementation;

Identify, assess and monitor Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance EWdisaster risks and enhance EW;;

Use knowledge etc. to build Use knowledge etc. to build resilienceresilience;;

Reduce underlying risk factors;Reduce underlying risk factors; Strengthen disaster preparedness. Strengthen disaster preparedness.

CCA – Bali Action PlanCCA – Bali Action Plan

Risk assessmentsRisk assessments – – national risk national risk informationinformation, socio-econ data on , socio-econ data on vulnerability and capacity.vulnerability and capacity.

Early Warning SystemsEarly Warning Systems – – risk knowledgerisk knowledge, , monitoring and warning and disseminationmonitoring and warning and dissemination and communication, response.and communication, response.

Risk reduction plansRisk reduction plans - - integrated plansintegrated plans and programmes for sectors and areas of and programmes for sectors and areas of development (Source: Informal Task Force, development (Source: Informal Task Force, Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR) Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR)

Frameworks Frameworks

DRR and Vulnerability DRR and Vulnerability assessments used in assessments used in

CC/variability CC/variability coping/adaptation coping/adaptation

assessments assessments

Double Structure of Double Structure of Vulnerability Vulnerability (After Bohle, 2001)(After Bohle, 2001)

THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF VULNERABILITY

Crisis and Conflict Theory

Political Economy Approaches

The “external” side of vulnerability

The “internal” side of vulnerability

EXPOSURE

COPING

Human Ecological Perspectiv

esEntitlement Theory

Models of Access to

AssetsAction Theory Approaches

Disaster Management and Disaster Management and VulnerabilityVulnerability

Increased Vulnerability

Exposure to Hazards and Threats

LACK OF RESOURCES

Income

Assets

Social Support

Etc…

LACK OF ACCESS

Health Services

Credit

Information

Etc…

Reduced Capacity to Cope and Recover

(After Wisner)

RISK ASSESSMENTS: RISK ASSESSMENTS: some methods some methods

A possible approach e.g. Sustainable A possible approach e.g. Sustainable Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)

Previous assessments – Previous assessments – strategies and lessonsstrategies and lessons

Coping (adaptation????) implies a range Coping (adaptation????) implies a range of strategiesof strategies – several assessments show few – several assessments show few exist – most exist – most involve modifications involve modifications of existing of existing food sourcing and other livelihood patternsfood sourcing and other livelihood patterns. .

Strategies may be harmfulStrategies may be harmful – sale of – sale of livestock may erode subsistence bases.livestock may erode subsistence bases.

Most involve selling their futures to Most involve selling their futures to survivesurvive..

Strategies not static and what worked in Strategies not static and what worked in one climate shock/stress period may not one climate shock/stress period may not work in others – need for constant work in others – need for constant updatingupdating. .

BASELINE HAZARD+ COPING OUTCOME+ =

Household Economy and Livelihoods (Sawdon, RHVP)

HAZARD/SHOCK FACTORS:

The Siavonga Valley in Zambia experienced poor rainfall during the 2000/2001 cropping season leading to a 40% drop in maize production compared to previous year. Government plans to provide food assistance.

RISK OF FOOD INSECURITY:

APPROPRIATE RESPONSE:

The vulnerability assessment shows that maize is not an important source of food in the Siavonga Valley. Therefore a 40% drop in maize production alone, will not put households at risk of food insecurity.

VULNERABILITY OF AFFECTED HOUSEHOLDS:

A food aid intervention in this situation is not appropriate (after Fews, 2003)

Purchase

Gifts

Wild food

Labor for food

Other crops

Maize

Millet

Sorghum

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

01999/2000 2000/2001

This graph shows how poor households in the Siavanga Valley obtainfood and cash

% o

f m

inim

um

annual fo

od r

equir

em

ents

PROBLEM SPECIFICATION

Projected crop production this

year compared to last year ……….111% of last year

………………..59% of last year

……………….138% of last year

……………98% of last year

Moving to towards Moving to towards quantification and quantification and

costing?costing?Some disaster loss Some disaster loss

inventoriesinventories

DateDate Area most Area most affectedaffected

Loss (R. Loss (R. Mil)*Mil)*

Mar 2003Mar 2003 EdenEden 212.4212.4

Dec 2004Dec 2004 EdenEden > 60.0> 60.0

Apr 2005Apr 2005 OverbergOverberg 5.05.0

Aug 2006Aug 2006 Eden & OverbergEden & Overberg 510.5510.5

Jun 2007Jun 2007 West CoastWest Coast 128.3128.3

Nov 2007Nov 2007 Eden & OverbergEden & Overberg 1.2 bn1.2 bn

Jul 2008Jul 2008 West CoastWest Coast 74.174.1

Nov 2008Nov 2008 Overberg & Cape Overberg & Cape WinelandsWinelands

943.0943.0

TotalTotal Four districtsFour districtsR. 3 bn R. 3 bn

in 6 yrsin 6 yrs

Severe weather events - costly for W. CapeSevere weather events - costly for W. Cape

* Not adjusted for construction inflation

African contextAfrican context

What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks?What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks? How are we COPING currently?How are we COPING currently? What makes us RESILIENT to change?What makes us RESILIENT to change? Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE

from COPING to ADAPTATION?from COPING to ADAPTATION? Can we begin to draw together cases from Can we begin to draw together cases from

sectors (water, health, energy) or types of sectors (water, health, energy) or types of interventions (humanitarian) that help us interventions (humanitarian) that help us to begin to say something about coping to begin to say something about coping and adaptation? and adaptation?

Decision-making in Decision-making in uncertainty – improved uncertainty – improved

EWSEWS

Alternative EWS ways of thinking (Source: Heads Up! EWS for climate water and weather, M. Glantz, 2007).

Alternative Typologies of Forecast Alternative Typologies of Forecast Systems Systems

(adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003)(adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003)

Producer focusProducer focus Focus on communication Focus on communication

as key issue (e.g. as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and probabilistic and deterministic forecasts)deterministic forecasts)

Some focus on user Some focus on user environmentenvironment

Some focus on how end-Some focus on how end-users manage risk users manage risk

Some focus on how end-Some focus on how end-users cope and adapt to users cope and adapt to changing environments. changing environments.

User focus User focus Focus on user environmentFocus on user environment Focus on ‘widening the Focus on ‘widening the

discourse’discourse’

Focus on obtaining data from Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk end users about their risk environment environment

Serious reflection on Serious reflection on ‘‘institutional issues’, ‘degree institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Tosteson, 1999).

Conventional Alternative Approach

Forecasts – moving to integration?Forecasts – moving to integration?

Institutional perspective

(Policies and state apparatus)

Understanding clients and their ‘risk management’ strategies

Understanding the user’s risk environment

‘User perspective’Forecasters’ perspective

Do I understand the info requirements of the end user?

In what ‘risk environment’ is my client based?

How can we create a dialogue to collectively reduce risk?

Possible outcomes

-Enhanced risk-reduction measures

- Integrated plans of action

- Design of ‘more appropriate institutional’ processes for effective use of forecasts.

December 2004 first quarterly climate December 2004 first quarterly climate preparedness meeting, Suid preparedness meeting, Suid

Bokkeveld,Bokkeveld,South AfricaSouth Africa

Heiveld Co-op senior member describing August – December 2004 climate and agriculture conditions; and leading discussion about coming quarterly & longer term strategies. Discussion follows presentation and critique of updated seasonal forecast, and of the agricultural advisory (both national scale products; here being evaluated and discussed at the sub-district scale).

(source: Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R)

‘is the product less important than the process?’

Community-Based Climate Community-Based Climate Risk Management PlansRisk Management Plans

Courses and TrainingCourses and Training

Establishing Establishing Institutional Institutional PlatformsPlatforms

BOUNDARY ORGANISATIONS

‘DEVELOPMENT’‘GOVERNMENT’‘ACTION-BASED’

Settlement Committee

Connect platforms to ongoing development activities

Issues for consideration Issues for consideration Risk assessmentRisk assessment: How can we integrate risk : How can we integrate risk

assessment with planning and other assessment with planning and other ongoing assessments? Enhanced ongoing assessments? Enhanced sustainability of VAs.sustainability of VAs.

Early WarningEarly Warning: Can we say more about : Can we say more about climate variability? In Africa living with climate variability? In Africa living with variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal and decadal assessments….etc. and decadal assessments….etc.

Resilience and capacityResilience and capacity: Can we begin to : Can we begin to show costs and tradeoffs between and for show costs and tradeoffs between and for linking climate change, adaptation and linking climate change, adaptation and development? Doing MORE with LESS! development? Doing MORE with LESS!

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

Gary Sawdon, RHVP.Gary Sawdon, RHVP. Save the Children + various others.Save the Children + various others. Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT.Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT. IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II, IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II,

2007.2007. Emma Archer, CSIR. Emma Archer, CSIR.