‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University.
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Transcript of ‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR DRR AND CCA Coleen Vogel REVAMP, Wits University.
‘‘LIVING WITH RISKS IN LIVING WITH RISKS IN AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR AFRICA’: CHALLENGES FOR
DRR AND CCADRR AND CCA
Coleen VogelColeen VogelREVAMP, Wits UniversityREVAMP, Wits University
Ave
rage
ΔT
°A
vera
ge Δ
prei
p (%
)
A mixed picture of uncertainty and agreement.
Regions of low consensus related in part to spatial positioning of boundaries of the climate processes
AfricaA
1B:
1980
–199
9 a
nd
208
0–20
99
IPCC AR4: Fig 11.2
Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate to climate change can be change can be exacerbated exacerbated by the by the presence ofpresence of other stressesother stresses..
(Ch 9) (Ch 9)
Some synergies between Some synergies between DRR and CCADRR and CCA
DRRDRR National priority + local with National priority + local with institutional basis for institutional basis for implementation;implementation;
Identify, assess and monitor Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance EWdisaster risks and enhance EW;;
Use knowledge etc. to build Use knowledge etc. to build resilienceresilience;;
Reduce underlying risk factors;Reduce underlying risk factors; Strengthen disaster preparedness. Strengthen disaster preparedness.
CCA – Bali Action PlanCCA – Bali Action Plan
Risk assessmentsRisk assessments – – national risk national risk informationinformation, socio-econ data on , socio-econ data on vulnerability and capacity.vulnerability and capacity.
Early Warning SystemsEarly Warning Systems – – risk knowledgerisk knowledge, , monitoring and warning and disseminationmonitoring and warning and dissemination and communication, response.and communication, response.
Risk reduction plansRisk reduction plans - - integrated plansintegrated plans and programmes for sectors and areas of and programmes for sectors and areas of development (Source: Informal Task Force, development (Source: Informal Task Force, Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR) Inter-agency Standing Committee + ISDR)
Frameworks Frameworks
DRR and Vulnerability DRR and Vulnerability assessments used in assessments used in
CC/variability CC/variability coping/adaptation coping/adaptation
assessments assessments
Double Structure of Double Structure of Vulnerability Vulnerability (After Bohle, 2001)(After Bohle, 2001)
THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF VULNERABILITY
Crisis and Conflict Theory
Political Economy Approaches
The “external” side of vulnerability
The “internal” side of vulnerability
EXPOSURE
COPING
Human Ecological Perspectiv
esEntitlement Theory
Models of Access to
AssetsAction Theory Approaches
Disaster Management and Disaster Management and VulnerabilityVulnerability
Increased Vulnerability
Exposure to Hazards and Threats
LACK OF RESOURCES
Income
Assets
Social Support
Etc…
LACK OF ACCESS
Health Services
Credit
Information
Etc…
Reduced Capacity to Cope and Recover
(After Wisner)
A possible approach e.g. Sustainable A possible approach e.g. Sustainable Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)Livelihoods (Carney, 1999 and others)
Previous assessments – Previous assessments – strategies and lessonsstrategies and lessons
Coping (adaptation????) implies a range Coping (adaptation????) implies a range of strategiesof strategies – several assessments show few – several assessments show few exist – most exist – most involve modifications involve modifications of existing of existing food sourcing and other livelihood patternsfood sourcing and other livelihood patterns. .
Strategies may be harmfulStrategies may be harmful – sale of – sale of livestock may erode subsistence bases.livestock may erode subsistence bases.
Most involve selling their futures to Most involve selling their futures to survivesurvive..
Strategies not static and what worked in Strategies not static and what worked in one climate shock/stress period may not one climate shock/stress period may not work in others – need for constant work in others – need for constant updatingupdating. .
HAZARD/SHOCK FACTORS:
The Siavonga Valley in Zambia experienced poor rainfall during the 2000/2001 cropping season leading to a 40% drop in maize production compared to previous year. Government plans to provide food assistance.
RISK OF FOOD INSECURITY:
APPROPRIATE RESPONSE:
The vulnerability assessment shows that maize is not an important source of food in the Siavonga Valley. Therefore a 40% drop in maize production alone, will not put households at risk of food insecurity.
VULNERABILITY OF AFFECTED HOUSEHOLDS:
A food aid intervention in this situation is not appropriate (after Fews, 2003)
Purchase
Gifts
Wild food
Labor for food
Other crops
Maize
Millet
Sorghum
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
01999/2000 2000/2001
This graph shows how poor households in the Siavanga Valley obtainfood and cash
% o
f m
inim
um
annual fo
od r
equir
em
ents
PROBLEM SPECIFICATION
Projected crop production this
year compared to last year ……….111% of last year
………………..59% of last year
……………….138% of last year
……………98% of last year
Moving to towards Moving to towards quantification and quantification and
costing?costing?Some disaster loss Some disaster loss
inventoriesinventories
DateDate Area most Area most affectedaffected
Loss (R. Loss (R. Mil)*Mil)*
Mar 2003Mar 2003 EdenEden 212.4212.4
Dec 2004Dec 2004 EdenEden > 60.0> 60.0
Apr 2005Apr 2005 OverbergOverberg 5.05.0
Aug 2006Aug 2006 Eden & OverbergEden & Overberg 510.5510.5
Jun 2007Jun 2007 West CoastWest Coast 128.3128.3
Nov 2007Nov 2007 Eden & OverbergEden & Overberg 1.2 bn1.2 bn
Jul 2008Jul 2008 West CoastWest Coast 74.174.1
Nov 2008Nov 2008 Overberg & Cape Overberg & Cape WinelandsWinelands
943.0943.0
TotalTotal Four districtsFour districtsR. 3 bn R. 3 bn
in 6 yrsin 6 yrs
Severe weather events - costly for W. CapeSevere weather events - costly for W. Cape
* Not adjusted for construction inflation
African contextAfrican context
What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks?What ‘drives’ change and enhances risks? How are we COPING currently?How are we COPING currently? What makes us RESILIENT to change?What makes us RESILIENT to change? Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE Can we ‘ramp’ these activities up – MOVE
from COPING to ADAPTATION?from COPING to ADAPTATION? Can we begin to draw together cases from Can we begin to draw together cases from
sectors (water, health, energy) or types of sectors (water, health, energy) or types of interventions (humanitarian) that help us interventions (humanitarian) that help us to begin to say something about coping to begin to say something about coping and adaptation? and adaptation?
Alternative EWS ways of thinking (Source: Heads Up! EWS for climate water and weather, M. Glantz, 2007).
Alternative Typologies of Forecast Alternative Typologies of Forecast Systems Systems
(adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003)(adapted from Vogel and O’Brien, 2003)
Producer focusProducer focus Focus on communication Focus on communication
as key issue (e.g. as key issue (e.g. probabilistic and probabilistic and deterministic forecasts)deterministic forecasts)
Some focus on user Some focus on user environmentenvironment
Some focus on how end-Some focus on how end-users manage risk users manage risk
Some focus on how end-Some focus on how end-users cope and adapt to users cope and adapt to changing environments. changing environments.
User focus User focus Focus on user environmentFocus on user environment Focus on ‘widening the Focus on ‘widening the
discourse’discourse’
Focus on obtaining data from Focus on obtaining data from end users about their risk end users about their risk environment environment
Serious reflection on Serious reflection on ‘‘institutional issues’, ‘degree institutional issues’, ‘degree of fit’of fit’ (e.g. Orlove and (e.g. Orlove and Tosteson, 1999). Tosteson, 1999).
Conventional Alternative Approach
Forecasts – moving to integration?Forecasts – moving to integration?
Institutional perspective
(Policies and state apparatus)
Understanding clients and their ‘risk management’ strategies
Understanding the user’s risk environment
‘User perspective’Forecasters’ perspective
Do I understand the info requirements of the end user?
In what ‘risk environment’ is my client based?
How can we create a dialogue to collectively reduce risk?
Possible outcomes
-Enhanced risk-reduction measures
- Integrated plans of action
- Design of ‘more appropriate institutional’ processes for effective use of forecasts.
December 2004 first quarterly climate December 2004 first quarterly climate preparedness meeting, Suid preparedness meeting, Suid
Bokkeveld,Bokkeveld,South AfricaSouth Africa
Heiveld Co-op senior member describing August – December 2004 climate and agriculture conditions; and leading discussion about coming quarterly & longer term strategies. Discussion follows presentation and critique of updated seasonal forecast, and of the agricultural advisory (both national scale products; here being evaluated and discussed at the sub-district scale).
(source: Archer, E.R.M., Oettlé, N.M., Louw, R)
‘is the product less important than the process?’
Community-Based Climate Community-Based Climate Risk Management PlansRisk Management Plans
Courses and TrainingCourses and Training
Establishing Establishing Institutional Institutional PlatformsPlatforms
BOUNDARY ORGANISATIONS
‘DEVELOPMENT’‘GOVERNMENT’‘ACTION-BASED’
Settlement Committee
Connect platforms to ongoing development activities
Issues for consideration Issues for consideration Risk assessmentRisk assessment: How can we integrate risk : How can we integrate risk
assessment with planning and other assessment with planning and other ongoing assessments? Enhanced ongoing assessments? Enhanced sustainability of VAs.sustainability of VAs.
Early WarningEarly Warning: Can we say more about : Can we say more about climate variability? In Africa living with climate variability? In Africa living with variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, variability key priority. ENSO, rain days, inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal inter and intra-seasonal rainfall; seasonal and decadal assessments….etc. and decadal assessments….etc.
Resilience and capacityResilience and capacity: Can we begin to : Can we begin to show costs and tradeoffs between and for show costs and tradeoffs between and for linking climate change, adaptation and linking climate change, adaptation and development? Doing MORE with LESS! development? Doing MORE with LESS!
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements
Gary Sawdon, RHVP.Gary Sawdon, RHVP. Save the Children + various others.Save the Children + various others. Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT.Ailsa Holloway, DiMP, UCT. IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II, IPCC Africa chapter authors, WG II,
2007.2007. Emma Archer, CSIR. Emma Archer, CSIR.