Leadership for a Networked World Leadership for a Networked World

ΔΔI I ++ ΔΔWW + ΔΔLL ΔΔVV

AgendaAgenda

1. Concepts

2. Practitioner Guidelines

3. The Future

ΔΔI I ++ ΔΔWW + ΔΔLL ΔΔVVConcepts• systems analysis• productivity, equity, legitimacy• risks versus returns• information and technology• specialization and scale• the role of authority• remote-service, self-service, and outsourced service• support: confusion X conflict• change: size X frequency• learning curve• Eight Imperatives• Cross-Boundary Leadership

ΔΔV:V: Systems AnalysisOPTIONS, MEANSOPTIONS, MEANS VALUES, ENDSVALUES, ENDS

1. Technology1. Technology2. Org design2. Org design3. Leadership3. Leadership4. Etc.4. Etc.

1. Productivity1. Productivity2. Equity2. Equity3. Legitimacy3. Legitimacy4. Etc.4. Etc.

++

Other VariablesOther Variables

1.Value? What do we care About?2.Options: What can we do?3.Relationships: What is known, unknown?4.Decisions: For action? For Further study?

1.Value? What do we care About?2.Options: What can we do?3.Relationships: What is known, unknown?4.Decisions: For action? For Further study?

ΔΔV:V: Productivity, Equity, Legitimacy1. Productivity ($/capita): ­ IT as #1 investment since 1995; the major factor behind recent

productivity growth­ huge long-term potential for global, knowledge-based

economy; but major risks (need for CEO + CIO teams)2. Equity/Fairness (Gini coefficient): ­ easier to reach dispersed poor, but major educational

challenges (with troubling trends)3. Legitimacy/Transparency (trust): ­ capacity for transparency, but suspicious of control by

incumbents and failures

Much at stake, both positive and negativeMuch at stake, both positive and negative

ΔΔV:V: Risks vs. ReturnsLearn values (preferences), options, and relationships

Make tradeoffs (across values, time, etc.)

And every action involves uncertainty and risk…

Value

Probability Now

Downside risk

Upside potential

Distribution of results

Balance risk and return; judge when to actBalance risk and return; judge when to act

ΔΔI:I: Information and Technology• ElectronicElectronic – efficient, fast, interactive• DigitalDigital – yes or no; extremely accurate; for data, voice, video,

integration• Processing Processing – if then, a reduced need for “handoffs”• Over networksOver networks – here there, remote and asynchronous

handoffs• With incredible productivity growthWith incredible productivity growth -- through Moore’s law

and Metcalfe’s law

Digital information processing over nets Digital information processing over nets

ΔΔW:W: Specialization and Scale

Group action supports economies of:• scale – e.g., armies• specialization – matching skills and interests• specialization – learning via repetition

VALUE

But coordination difficult: Who gets the value?• Let trades motivate voluntary adjustment• But what about public valuepublic value and threats from:

• slow decisions, externalities, inequities?

Take advantage of specialization and scale.Take advantage of specialization and scale.

ΔΔW:W: The Role of Authority

hierarchy of authority

shared goals,transparency

Authority to govern, protecting the public interest against Authority to govern, protecting the public interest against stalemates, spillovers, and inequitiesstalemates, spillovers, and inequities

rules rules rules rules rules rules

ΔΔW:W: The Role of Authority

hierarchy of authority

shared goals,transparency

rules rules rules rules rules rules

Authority to govern, protecting the public interest against Authority to govern, protecting the public interest against stalemates, spillovers, and inequitiesstalemates, spillovers, and inequities

ΔΔW:W: Divisions of Labor

2. Self-service, redesigned service – fewer handoffs/delays

x x hierarchy of authority

rules rules rules rules rules rules

1. Remote, asynchronous service – fewer interruptions/trips

ΔΔW:W: Divisions of LaborBoundaries: program, agency, enterprise, jurisdiction, industry, nation; define areas of accepted authority

Supplier/Partner NEW ORG (core functions only)

rules rules rules rules rules rules

1. Remote, asynchronous service – fewer interruptions/trips

2. Self-service, redesigned service – fewer handoffs/delays

3. Transparent, outsourced service – better specialization

ΔΔW:W: Targets of Innovation

Supplier/Partner NEW ORG (core functions only)

rules rules rules rules rules rules

1. Remote, asynchronous service – fewer interruptions/trips

2. Self-service, redesigned service – Enterprise integration

3. Transparent, outsourced service – better specialization

Expand networked relationships and negotiation.Expand networked relationships and negotiation.

ΔΔL:L: Change: Size X FrequencyEVOLUTIONARY

Total Quality Management(significant investment)

???The Learning Organization

(most investment)

TURBULENT

STABLE

Specialized Planning Staff(least investment)

2 31

REVOLUTIONARY

Reengineering(very significant investment)fr

equ

ency

of

steps

take

n

size of steps taken

Add effort and authority as turbulence increasesAdd effort and authority as turbulence increases

ΔΔL:L: Confusion X Conflict

Vision: plans, pilots; stake-holder involvement and education

Judgment: care, commitment;

“slow trigger, fast bullet”

Action: Just do it; line leadership for projects

Negotiation: negotiation, control;

align incentives,maintain focus.

conf

usio

n

conflict

Resolve barriers of confusion and conflictResolve barriers of confusion and conflict

Concepts, in Sum…• Maximize value…

­ Analyze the system, balance risks and returns• … by working together

­ Take advantage of specialization and scale• … in well-governed groups

­ Establish controls for stalemates, spillovers, inequities• … using information and technology

­ Digital information with electronic processing over nets• … for improved divisions of labor

­ Remote service, self-service, outsourced service• … through investments in innovation

­ Add effort and authority as turbulence increases• … and successfully implemented change.

­ Resolve barriers of confusion and conflict

The Learning Curve

Extension by “fast followers”

Invention by “first movers”

Economies of innovation

Economies of standardization

The GAP –a HUGE problem

Ado

ptio

n

Build bridges via deeper, trusted communicationsBuild bridges via deeper, trusted communications

Now Moving to the Next Wave…

pen

etr

atio

n a

nd b

en

efits

VALUE

time and effort

ACCESSonline,

not in line

REDESIGNcross-boundarytransformation

On a curve: • A step• Normal change

Changing curves:• A leap• Crisis change

TIME

……with new leadership/governance challengeswith new leadership/governance challenges

On a curve: • A step• Normal change

Changing curves:• A leap• Crisis change

Major leadership mistakes…

• Head in the sand– IT “not strategic”– “Don’t bother me”

• Silver bullet– IT as the solution– “Don’t bother me”

• Boiled frog– Misses the real problem– Can’t respond in time

Cross-boundary Challenges…For Planning --For Planning --1. Explore new technologies, especially for cross-boundary collaboration. 2. Engage larger groups: customer groups, the enterprise, and entire industries

and policy communities.3. Honestly assess strategic risks, including the risks of inaction.4. Keep the pressure on for change: high enough but not too high.

For Implementation --For Implementation --5. Focus on communication and negotiation, working especially with external

stakeholders to string successes together.6. Develop new business models that overcome budgeting myopia. 7. Develop and apply flexible open standards to promote self-organization and

innovation.8. Sustain relationships through new governance as required.

Needed = active, adaptive, partner-oriented leadership.Needed = active, adaptive, partner-oriented leadership.

Major Trends

B/C growth = 1,000,000 timesB/C growth = 1,000,000 times over past 30 years over past 30 yearsB/CB/C

1.01.0

high volume, routine high volume, routine authorityauthority

low volume, non-routine low volume, non-routine negotiationnegotiation

…from automation to innovation…from delegation to leadership

Next Step: Data Processing

Faster processors – 64 bit, multi-Ghz, clusteredVoice and video processing, complex simulationsAgents, data mining, more powerful search

Better storage – disks, flash, glyphsiPod for classes, RAID technology, your life in video

Better I/O – voice, language, visualizationDictation, Chinese, teaching physical skills

Better (and much, much more) dataXML, sensors (every tree in the forest), wikis

Next Step: Communications

Wireline bandwidth: fiber, DSL, cable modemsThe power of video and “talking heads”

Wireless: WiFi, meshFor field work, the home, equity

Peer to peer architecturesUnleashing vacant capacity, security concerns

Satellites: stationary and low earth orbitalBroadband, even broadband interactive, everywhere

Next Step: Applications

ERP: COTS standardization for “non-strategic” apps

VoIP: voice is “free”? Skype ++

Identity authentication: with biometrics (but difficult)

GIS: the way governments see things

Collaboration tools, innovation: new ways to work with Web 2.0 ++

Parting Thoughts . . .1. Value from innovation, not just automation; the technicians can’t do it alone.

2. The vision must be shared (confusion resolved) and the leadership must be committed (conflict resolved).

3. Net-enabled service & new funding options can be high-value moves.

4. “The” issue: Government as partner in the shift to global electronic commerce.

5. These will be your issues…

It is time for a new generation of It is time for a new generation of leadership to cope with new problems leadership to cope with new problems and new opportunities. For there is a and new opportunities. For there is a

new world to be won.new world to be won.ΔΔI+I+ΔΔW+W+ΔΔL L ΔΔVV

It is time for a new generation of It is time for a new generation of leadership to cope with new problems leadership to cope with new problems and new opportunities. For there is a and new opportunities. For there is a

new world to be won.new world to be won.ΔΔI+I+ΔΔW+W+ΔΔL L ΔΔVV