Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo LambertUniversity of Exeter

thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

1955-2003Lambert and Chiang, (2007)

OLS regression for 1955-2003

ModelGFDL CM 2 01.4 +/- 0.2GFDL CM 2 11.5 +/- 0.2GISS E-R1.5 +/- 0.1MIROC1.5 +/- 0.2MRI0.9 +/- 0.2Observations1.6 +/- 0.1

OLS regression for 1955-2003: residual variance

ModelrGFDL CM 2 00.020GFDL CM 2 10.021GISS E-R0.013MIROC0.016MRI0.029Observations0.009

Into the future

Some referencesHansen et al., (1983)

Manabe et al., (1991)

Huntingford and Cox, (2000)

Sutton et al., (2007)

Joshi et al., (2008)

Structure of talkMotivation

Simple model of land-sea contrast.

Comparison with complex models.

Some stuff that I don't really understand.

N = Q, T = 0

N = 0, T = Teq

T = 3K, N = T /

Ain some idealised 2xCO2and prescribedSST experiments.

And TL againstTO

Structure of talkMotivation

Simple model of land-sea contrast.

Comparison with complex models.

Some stuff that I don't really understand.

CRUTEM3vsHadISST21900-19541955-2008

CRUTEM3vsHadISST2(masked to 1900)1900-19541955-2008

1900-19541955-2008CRUTEM3vsHadISST2(masked to 1900)1.5 +/- 0.40.7 +/- 0.3

1900-19541955-2008HadISST2(masked to 1900)

1900-19541955-20081900-1954, constant HadISST2(masked to 1900)

ConclusionsAnnual mean TL / TO is remarkably constant especially in observations.

Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport.

Early 20th century behaviour is different / problematic.