Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter...

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Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo Lambert University of Exeter thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

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  • Land-ocean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing Hugo LambertUniversity of Exeter

    thanks to Mark Webb and Manoj Joshi

  • 1955-2003Lambert and Chiang, (2007)

  • OLS regression for 1955-2003

    ModelGFDL CM 2 01.4 +/- 0.2GFDL CM 2 11.5 +/- 0.2GISS E-R1.5 +/- 0.1MIROC1.5 +/- 0.2MRI0.9 +/- 0.2Observations1.6 +/- 0.1

  • OLS regression for 1955-2003: residual variance

    ModelrGFDL CM 2 00.020GFDL CM 2 10.021GISS E-R0.013MIROC0.016MRI0.029Observations0.009

  • Into the future

  • Some referencesHansen et al., (1983)

    Manabe et al., (1991)

    Huntingford and Cox, (2000)

    Sutton et al., (2007)

    Joshi et al., (2008)

  • Structure of talkMotivation

    Simple model of land-sea contrast.

    Comparison with complex models.

    Some stuff that I don't really understand.

  • N = Q, T = 0

  • N = 0, T = Teq

  • T = 3K, N = T /

  • Ain some idealised 2xCO2and prescribedSST experiments.

  • And TL againstTO

  • Structure of talkMotivation

    Simple model of land-sea contrast.

    Comparison with complex models.

    Some stuff that I don't really understand.

  • CRUTEM3vsHadISST21900-19541955-2008

  • CRUTEM3vsHadISST2(masked to 1900)1900-19541955-2008

  • 1900-19541955-2008CRUTEM3vsHadISST2(masked to 1900)1.5 +/- 0.40.7 +/- 0.3

  • 1900-19541955-2008HadISST2(masked to 1900)

  • 1900-19541955-20081900-1954, constant HadISST2(masked to 1900)

  • ConclusionsAnnual mean TL / TO is remarkably constant especially in observations.

    Simple model and GCM study suggests powerful land-ocean heat transport.

    Early 20th century behaviour is different / problematic.