Investing in HIV Prevention

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David Wilson Global HIV/AIDS Program DirectorDecision and Delivery Science Global LeadInvesting inHIV Prevention

Creative Commons Portray of a Student by Francesco Volpi is licensed under CC BY 2.0


mathematical optimization equation2For resource vector R such that R=c(t) and bounded by constraints rmin(t)Rirmax(t) with outcome 0=f(R), find R that minimizes 0

Optimization algorithm example3


Concentrated epidemics | Proven approaches for SW, MSM and IDU5



Optimizing HIV prevention investments to prevent 19,000 new infections in Sudan7

With the same $6.4 million in 2013, Sudan could avert anadditional 19,000 infections (36% of cumulative HIV infections) from 201420 by reallocating funds from general population as follows:ART 12%22%SW clients 4%10%FSW 4%15% MSM 2%6%



Generalized epidemics | Why they are so different, Swaziland9

Generalized epidemics | Why they are so different10FHI, 2002


11Sources of infection example, KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa), 2012Generalized epidemics | Why they are so different


Generalized epidemics | Proven approachesTrialCompleted/StoppedEffectiveMicrobicides101Behavior change91STI treatment71HIV vaccines41PEP10Male circumcision33ART-based prevention97Cash transfers53Total4516

12Weiss, Abu_Raddad,Padian


Impact of optimized allocations on generalized epidemics in SwazilandSwaziland could reduce new infections by 30% by 2018 by making a single change to allocations:Increase VMMC from