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Alain Roques INRA Zoologie Forestière Orléans, France IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT PESTS THE CASE OF THE PINE PROCESSIONARY MOTH

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  • Alain Roques

    INRA Zoologie Forestière

    Orléans, France

    IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT PESTS THE CASE OF THE PINE PROCESSIONARY MOTH

  • Direct and indirect impact of global change on insect species

    Host plants

    Δ temperature ∆ rainfall ∆ isolation ∆ extreme events ∆ CO2, CH4, O3, NO,…

    Insect Population

    Natural enemies

    Competitors

    Surv

    ival

    , Fer

    tility

    ,

    Dev

    elop

    men

    t rat

    e,

    Dis

    pers

    al

    Robinet & Roques, Integrative Zoology 2010

  • EEA Report No 4/2008

    Annual mean Winter Summer

    Is the insect response linear ? What is the biological significance of a 1°C increase in annual mean temperature ?

    Assymetry in warming: Minimal vs. maximal temperatures; season (warming in spring, summer, autumn and winter will not have the same effects because of the insect development stages); regions, …

  • Survive or die: the importance of an (even limited) increase in winter temperatures

    Under temperate latitudes, low temperatures constitute a key factor limiting the range through minimal, letal thresholds of development for the various stages of the insect (egg, larva, adult) The northern (and altitudinal) movement of the isotherms corresponding to letal minimal thresholds allow the insects to expand Climate change may remove/relocate barriers that delimit the insect range

  • PPM, a mediterranean insect with a winter larval development

    A model for climate change (IPCC and ONERC)

  • Outstanding model for climate change but …….

    A major forest pest

    Highly urticating larvae for humans and animals

  • Several recent projects allowed large progresses in the understanding of the relations CC- PPM

    URTICLIM (2008-2012): ‘Anticipation of the response of processionary moths to climate change and its biodiversity and sanitary impacts’ (French National Agency); 1st multidisciplinary project: entomologists, ecologists, medical doctors, veterinarians, mathematical modellers, managers focused on the western expansion and adaptations at the front edge (France/ Italy/ Spain)

    ECONET-Balkans (2010- 2011): PPM in south-eastern Europe

    PCLIM (2012-2018): International research network about the adaptive response of processionary moths and their associated organisms to global change (ACCAF- INRA); an international network on processionary responses to climate change (64 participants, 20 countries)

    Roques (Ed.), 2015 http://www.springer.com/us/book/9789401793391

  • A significant expansion in latitude and altitude in France from the 1990s on

    Grid 8km*8km

    The northern front results from the junction of 2 genetically-differentiated populations from East and West

  • Focus on the Paris basin: A >100 km latitudinal shift since 1972- A significant acceleration since 1992

    Robinet et al. 2010

    Unpubl. data

    Northwards shift near Paris - by 2.6 km/yr from 1972 to 2011 - by 5.5 km/yr from 1996 to 2011

    whilst mean winter temperature increased by 1°C

    1971 1992 1996 2005 2011

    Mean minimum temperature from October to March in Orléans (moving mean 5 yrs)

    2.46°C +/- 0.86°C (SD)

    3.55°C+/-0.68 (SD)

    1

    2

    3

    4

    1972 1990 1980 2000

  • A similar expansion in altitude

    in the Alps and the Massif Central

    - 7.0 m/yr on sunny side

    - 2.9 m/yr on shaded side

    y = 7.97x - 1510R² = 0.575

    0200400600800100012001400160018002000

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

    Infe

    sted

    are

    a (h

    a)

    Mea

    n al

    titud

    e of

    infe

    sted

    are

    a (m

    )

    Year

    Altitude Area Linear (Altitude)

    Battisti et al. unpublished

    Trend of total infested area (>1 nest/tree) and mean elevation of the infested area in Trentino, Central Italian Alps

  • PPM expansion all over Southern Europe The 2012 front edge from Britanny to Turkey

    PCLIM Project INRA (2015), with the help of A.Battisti (Italy) P. Mirchev (Bulgaria) G. Georgiev (Bulgaria) M. Dautbasic (Bosnia) D. Matosevic (Croatia) K. Ipekdhal (Turkey) M. Glavendekic (Serbia) I. Papazova (Macedonia) S. Naceski (Macedonia) D. Avtzis (Greece) E. Cota (Albania) T. Manole (Romania) J. Garcia (France, Switzerland) F. Goussard (France, Switzerland)

  • TEMPERATURE

    >-16°C

    LONG-TERM SURVIVAL

    Buffo et al. 2007

    Realized Feeding Threshold (RFT)

    T nest > 9°C (day)

    Activation T

    T air > 0°C (following night)

    Potential feeding T

    +

    FEEDING

    Battisti et al. 2005

    IMMEDIATE SURVIVAL

    Not only correlations ! Winter warming up= release of the thermal

    constraints preventing range expansion

  • Paris basin: Models based on climate constraints showed that CC removed

    the natural barrier (Beauce) preventing natural expansion

    Orléans

    Blois

    Montargis

    Pithiviers

    Fontainebleau Chartres

    Rambouillet PARIS

    Orléans

    Blois

    Montargis

    Pithiviers

    Fontainebleau Chartres

    Rambouillet PARIS

    1992-1996: Thermal barrier: Expansion not possible

    2000-2004: No more barrier: all Paris basin favourable

    Number of days with suitable conditions for feeding during the cold season (Robinet et al. Global Ecol. Biogeogr. 2007)

  • COLLAPSE

    HISTORICAL ALTITUDINAL EXPANSION

    Contradictory effects of climate change and climate anomalies with regions

    T>40°C

    T>30°C

    HEATWAVE

    Winter 2002- 2003: Warming up favorable to the survival of the populations all over the range

    Flight Eggs Larvae

    Flight Eggs Larvae

    Italian Alps

    ParisBasin

    Summer Autumn

    Summer 2003: Heat waves affected differently the populations according to regions and topography

  • Only a natural expansion ? A number of colonies appeared far beyond the

    expansion front since the early 2000s

    Were do they come from ? The expanding area or far beyond ? How can they survive far beyond the natural front ?

    2008- 190km 2012- 90km

    2015

    2003- 2008- 14-60km

  • Limited female flight capabilities: impossible to spread over distances > 40 km

    Females fly at more 11km (a few)

    Robinet et al. Biol. Inv. 2012

  • Italie

    Espagne

    France

    Paris

    Paris

    DNA microsatellites assigned most colonies to southern populations, not to the front ones

    Colonies = long-distance jumps from southern areas eg. Bagneux- Arcueil from Pistoia !

  • a a a a a a a ab

    b b

    bc

    b

    c c

    c

    bc hole of caterpillar

    hole of parasitoid (Imbert, 2012)

    No parasitoids or only pupal ones

    High frequency of egg parasitoids

    • Expanding PPM populations escape from egg parasitoids: less egg

    mortality may allow larger PPM colonies at the front edge and in isolated colonies, ie better winter survival in colder places

    • Colonies beyond front with only pupal parasitoids

    A changing parasitoid complex with CC Significant decrease in parasitism from endemic areas to front edge

  • Most isolated colonies proceed from management using ornamental plantations of mature pines

    Urban heated islands: a better PPM survival in and around large cities once colonized

    Ornamental pines along motorways as corridors and relays for PPM dispersal (Rossi et al., 2015)

  • • Translocation of large trees (« grow » faster) is spatially moving a mini- ecosystem with nymphal stages in soil.

    • If transported before the late 1990s, the moth offspring could not survive the harsh winter conditions in northern areas.

    The likely pathway

    Trade of mature trees moving PPM pupae with soil

    A large Italian nursery trading plants by trucks to all Europe and Asia Minor

    The recent range expansion results from a combination of natural and long-distance dispersal (Roques et al., 2015)

  • Most of Europe and Minor Asia likely to become susceptible in the near future

    (Robinet et al., 2015)

    Any long-range transport with potted pines from the native range is likely to generate colony establishment

    Probability of PPM establishment under different temperature increase scenarios

  • Originally a forest pest, at present a human and veterinary sanitary threat

    in urban and semi-urban areas

  • A number of important questions remains:

    1- PPM adaptations at the front edge and in colonies beyond front ?

    Different genetic markers show that the front population is a mosaic of new, unexpected genetic combinations

    Possible adaptations at the front edge - Larger flight capabilities and adapted

    morphology and carbohydrate content ? - Better cold resistance ? - Advanced phenology ? - Fertility (Egg load) - Nest size - Lower urticating capabilities (no. setae and

    allergen content) in relation to escape from natural enemies

    - Increased man/ animal sensitivity in newly-colonized zones ?

    Paris Basin 2015- 2016

  • Simultaneous survey of larval development in 25 sites from 10 countries during 2014- 2018

    2- Consequences of CC-induced perturbations in the phenological development ?

    Role of warming up in seasons other than winter ?

    ‘Erratic’ behaviors observed since the 2010s in larval processions for pupation

  • May Jun Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul

    Adults

    Eggs

    Larval development

    Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun Apr

    Diapause / Pupation

    Eggs Summer

    phenology- SP

    Typical winter

    phenology- WP

    Larval development

    Adults

    Diapause / Pupation

    A phenologically- shifted population developing during summer in Portugal

    (Branco et al., 2013)

  • 3- Is CC triggerring PPM outbreaks ?

    High and permanent attack rate in newly-invaded areas (no natural enemies) But still a black box in endemic areas where PPM outbreaks show a cycle of ca. 8 years resulting from density-dependent factors (natural enemies, host reaction,..). Induced changes in rates of prolonged diapause (up to 7 years- Salman et al. 2016) ?

    Li et al., 2015

  • 4- Impact on fauna and flora in newly-invaded areas ?

    PPM arrival in new bioclimatic ranges (eg. mountainous level) may disrupt the ecosystems and fauna related to pines either directly (competition- eg red-listed Isabel moth, Graellsia isabellae) or indirectly (via natural enemies) However, insect responses are likely to vary according to their specificity and trophic level (guild, cascades effects), combined their own response to climate change

  • 5- Switch on tree species other than pines in newly-colonized areas?

    Larch L’Argentière Oct 2017

  • Take- home messages PPM is naturally expanding northwards and upwards with global

    warming

    A large part of Europe is at present favourable to establishment but PPM colonizes it slowly (ca 5km/ yr) due to the limited flight capabilities of females

    Colonies accidentally introduced into favourable areas with mature trees are likely to establish, especially in urban areas

    The actual PPM expansion finally results from the combination of global warming, the development of ornamental pine plantations, and the increasing trade of mature trees from already- infested areas.

    Besides winter warming up, research must consider the effect of warming up during early development (autumn) as well pupal stage (spring): positive ? negative ? Relations with prolonged diapause (uo to 7 yrs!)

    Research has also to focus the adaptations at front edge

  • Merci de votre attention ! Thanks for your attention

  • (Battisti et al., 2015)

    Adult flight:

    • Beginning of summer in cold regions: mature larvae and well- formed nests before winter

    • End of summer to end of autumn in hot areas: avoidance of hot temperatures; no need of well-formed nests because of mild winters

    A large flexibility with regard to the bioclimatic region… but

    Diapositive numéro 1Diapositive numéro 2Diapositive numéro 3Diapositive numéro 4Survive or die: the importance of an (even limited) increase in winter temperaturesDiapositive numéro 6Outstanding model for climate change but …….Several recent projects allowed large progresses in the understanding of the relations CC- PPMDiapositive numéro 9Diapositive numéro 10Diapositive numéro 11PPM expansion all over Southern Europe�The 2012 front edge from Britanny to TurkeyDiapositive numéro 13Diapositive numéro 14Diapositive numéro 15Only a natural expansion ? �A number of colonies appeared far beyond the expansion front since the early 2000s Limited female flight capabilities: �impossible to spread over distances > 40 km ��Diapositive numéro 18A changing parasitoid complex with CC�Significant decrease in parasitism �from endemic areas to front edge��Diapositive numéro 20�The likely pathway�Trade of mature trees moving PPM pupae with soilMost of Europe and Minor Asia likely �to become susceptible in the near futureOriginally a forest pest, �at present a human and veterinary sanitary threat �in urban and semi-urban areas�A number of important questions remains: �1- PPM adaptations at the front edge �and in colonies beyond front ?Diapositive numéro 25Diapositive numéro 26Diapositive numéro 27Diapositive numéro 28Diapositive numéro 29Take- home messagesDiapositive numéro 31A large flexibility with regard to the bioclimatic region… but