Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 11 –...
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Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 11 – Problem simplification INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
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Transcript of Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 Rodolfo Soncini-Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 11 –...
Hanoi, January 29th 2015
Rodolfo Soncini-SessaDEI – Politecnico di Milano
IMRR Project
11 – Problem simplification
INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM
IN A CHANGING CLIMATE
The Design Problem
(It)
scenario
(It, θ)
(It, θ)
4th December 2013Gestione delle Risorse Naturali, Politecnico di Milano
Universal function approximators
Artificial Neural Networks with some particular features can be used as universal function approximators, i.e. as policies.
Multi-layer Perceptron
u1,t
uq,t
θ = [γ11,1, …., γ1
m,n, … , βL1, …, βL
q]
4th December 2013
SOLVING APPROACH: ANN to describe the control law ; GA to find the optimal ANN parameterization .
ALGORITHM:
Gestione delle Risorse Naturali, Politecnico di Milano
Run a system simulation for each individual
Selection, crossover and mutation
new population
initial population
time series of historical inflow
objectives
J1
J2
Initial (random) population
J1
J2
selection of the “best” solutions according to the Pareto dominance criterion
J1
J2
survival of the fittest
J1
J2
generation of a new population
J1
J2
selection of the “best” solutions according to the Pareto dominance criterion
J1
J2
survival of the fittest
J1
J2
iterating….
J1
J2
iterating….
J1
J2
iterating….
J1
J2
final approximation of the Pareto front
System simplification
Time per policy evaluation over 39 years for the RTBR system: 0.53 sec.
Dimθ = (2 x Ninput + Noutput) x Nneur Nneur ≥ Ninput + Noutput
Ninput= 4+2 Noutput = 4 Nneur = 10 Dimθ = 160 Num policies = 10160
4 reservoirs
Ninput= 3+2 Noutput = 3 Nneur = 9 Dimθ = 117 Num policies = 10117
3 reservoirs
Ninput= 1+2 Noutput = 1 Nneur = 5 Dimθ = 35 Num policies = 1035
1 reservoir
Too large!
Might be feasibleRunning time: 29 days
Numevaluations about 5.5 106
SDP 250 seconds = 470 policy evaluations
SDP is surely faster
How to reduce
the number of reservoirs
to 3 only?
We will see tomorrow.
Four reservoirs are too many
HB =49%
YB=23%
TB=5%
TQ=11%
HY=12%
The Red-Thai Binh River basin
ST
Thac Ba policy design
SDP
Other reservoirs’ policy design
GA
Other design conditions
Storages thresholdsMinumum and maximum (unconstrained) release
legal constrains
Jun 15th - Jun 25th, early flood-period
Before June 25th, if Hoa Binh reservoir level is at 107 m and the Hoa Binh inflow is predicted to be higher than 4,000 m3/s, Son La reservoir is allowed to use the storage between 200 m and 205 m to prevent Hoa Binh reservoir level from exceeding 107 m.
WHAT TO DO?
Son La
Only reservoirs safety conditions will be a priori imposed
Thanks for your attention
XIN CẢM ƠN
