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McKinsey&Company, Athens Office Η Ελλάδα 10 Χρόνια Μπροστά Προσδιορίζοντας το νέο Μοντέλο Ανάπτυξης της Ελλάδας Σύνοψη Σεπτέμβριος 2011 WORK IN PROGRESS
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Transcript of Greece 10 Years Ahead Executive Summary Greek Version Small

  • McKinsey&Company, Athens Office

    10

    2011

    WORK IN PROGRESS

  • 2

  • 3 10 :

    5

    1. 7

    2. 11

    2.1. 142.2. 17

    3. 25

    4. 33

    4.1. 35 4.1.1. 35 4.1.2. 38 4.1.3. 41 4.1.4. 46 4.1.5. 49

    4.2. 53 4.2.1. 55 4.2.2. 57 4.2.3. 59 4.2.4. 61 4.2.5. 62 4.2.6. 64 4.2.7. 65

  • 4

  • 5 10 :

    10 , , , .

    , , , . , ( ) - ( ), , .

    , 100 .

    10 2010, 2011 McKinsey & Company . , McKinsey & Company , McKinsey & Company.

    . , . McKinsey & Company (www.mckinsey.gr).

  • 61.

  • 71.

    , . . , . , . , , . , , . , , 17%.

    , , . . . - , , () . , , . , , 15-20 . .

    . , , . , , 2010 19 .

    . , (.. , , , ). , , 27% 250 34% 54% . 4

    10 :

  • 8 2000-2008, . 97% , , , 71%. .

    . , . , , , . / .

    10 . , 49 . 1 (55 . ) 520 10 - . 1,5% , 3% .

    - . .

    , , . fast track 2004, , , . , , . , (Economic Development and Reform Unit) , .

    1 = - +

  • 9 10 :

    . , , . , (), , . , , , . , , . , , , . , , . , . . , .

    (Executive Summary) . . , , .

  • 10

    2.

  • 11 10 :

    2.

    , . 2002, . , , , . 2009, 15% . 2008-2010 1,5%. , .., 150% 2011.

    . , . 2000-2008, , , . , , 20% . ( 1).

    McKinsey & Company

    79

    71

    87

    82

    97

    2

    3

    4

    1

    20

    17

    17

    27

    15

    1

    11

    -4

    -9

    -12 89 .

    : Eurostat

    2000-085

    857 .

    628 .

    1,170 .

    2,654 .

    (%) 2000-08

    & ()

    1 : , , , 2 : , , , , .. 3 : , , , , , 4 -155 , 2000-08,

    1

  • 12

    ... 1981, . . 5%-6% , . .

    20 . .. ( 2). , , .

    3 . , , 3 , (.., ), . 2010 , .

    . 3-4 (6-7 ). , , . , . , 18% 11% ( 3).

  • 13

    McKinsey & Company: Eurostat, WIS Global Insight

    (non-tradables)

    (tradables)

    28% 32% 31%

    10% 12% 12%

    16%9% 7%

    7%6%

    5,078 bn

    7%

    11%

    14%

    2%

    16%

    2,764 bn

    7%

    11%

    211 bn

    9%

    18%

    3%

    9% 15%

    8%

    3

    , 2008

    1

    &

    2

    1 , , , 2 , , & , , , , 3

    3

    McKinsey & Company: World Travel and Tourism Council

    2000-2008

    34% 35% 40%45%

    66%

    66% 65% 60%55%

    34%

    30%

    70%

    12 36 17 6 61 5

    , .,

    2

    10 :

  • 14

    2.1.

    . , 2007, (-15) 15% 35% (11% 33% 2009). , , ( 4).

    , . 2009, 40% 29% 15 ( 5). , $35 , $49 -15, $42 $55 .

    , . , ( 6).

    , , . 15% ( 7).

    , . 66% , 73% -15 70% .

    , . , 69% 38% ( 2009).

    ( ) : .

    , , . , , , . - .

  • 15

    McKinsey & Company: , Global Insights; Eurostat; The Conference Board Total Economy Database

    303135373846

    2009 $ PPP

    2009 $ PPP /

    1

    0,410,420,45

    0,460,47

    0,46

    656766666768

    706673747774

    889191929291423549554858

    713882706668774793

    1,82,11,61,51,61,7

    2009

    1 2 3 4

    1 : , , , , ..2 : , , , , , 3 -154 : , , ,

    4

    10 :

    . ( ) , . , .

  • 16

    McKinsey & Company

    2009 PPP, $

    0

    0.7

    1.6

    0.8

    2.4

    7.5

    8.5

    :The Conference Board; International Monetary Fund; Eurostat; Global Insight; OECD; McKinsey Global Institute

    -0.5

    0.8

    0.3

    1.2

    7.4

    2.2

    9.2

    -0.4

    1.2

    1.9

    1.5

    0.2

    12.1

    16.0

    -1.5

    0.1

    4.1

    0.6

    7.3

    19.0

    15.0

    6

    McKinsey & Company: The Conference Board; International Monetary Fund; McKinsey Global Institute

    2.4

    0.7

    1.6

    1.1

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    2.0

    55

    49

    42

    35

    48

    58

    , 2009 , EKS$1

    , 19992009 , %

    -40%

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    1 Elteto-Koves-Szulc

    -17%

    5

  • 17 10 :

    McKinsey & Company

    - ,

    1PPP 2005 USD/

    : EU KLEMS; McKinsey Global Institute

    -181

    2413

    -29

    141

    2257

    52

    -511

    1 , , ,

    7

    2.2.

    : () , () , () , () , () ( 8).

    .

    , . , 30% . , 15% 5%. , 40% 250 ( .. 27) ( 9).

    , . - (

  • 18

    , ), , . , - ( 10). .

    McKinsey & Company

    A

    B

    E

    2

    4

    5

    3

    6 7 8

    9

    12 - 13

    10

    ( ) 14 15 ,

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    (.., )

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  • 19

    McKinsey & Company

    1.4

    0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4

    : OECD; IFC; ILO; World Bank; McKinsey Global Institute

    60,000

    55,000

    50,000

    45,000

    40,000

    35,000

    30,000

    25,000

    20,000

    15,000

    2.42.22.01.81.61.41.21.00.8

    2008 , 1990 PPP $70,000

    65,000

    10

    10 :

    McKinsey & Company: Eurostat Structural Business Indicators, EL STAT

    /, .. E-27 (250+=100)

    67

    5610-49

    100

    49-250

    250+

    0-9 39

    , 2009

    25

    28

    27

    29

    25

    25

    30

    26

    54

    47

    48

    34

    28

    26

    19

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    0-9 10-49 49-250 250+

    30 17

    20 31

    15 34

    14 32

    11 26

    7 18

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    9

  • 20

    .

    , . , . World Economic Forum . , ( 11).

    , , .

    . , , ( ) . , , . . .

    McKinsey & Company

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    010203040506070

    1% , 2009

    WEF , 2010

    :; WEF 2010-2011

    1 , , ( )

    11

  • 21 10 :

    .

    . , , , . , , .

    , ( 12). . .

    McKinsey & Company: 2009. DG EMPL calculations using EU LFS data

    1%

    1416

    181919191920

    212223

    23

    26

    292930

    GRSEITBEROCZPTHUDEPLFREEUKFIESDK

    1 = (+)/ : 2002-07, 2002-04

    12

  • 22

    .

    , , (.. ), (.. ). , , .

    , . , 8-9 3 . 2-6 . , , . , .

    .

    , 30% . . 2009 15-20 . , . 7%-9% 60%-80% 2010. , , . , , . ( ), ( 13).

    , . , .

  • 23 10 :

    McKinsey & Company

    ,

    (.. /)

    , ,

    :

    1

    /

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  • 24

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    , , . , , , , .

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  • 26

    , , . , , . , . , , , , ( 14).

    ; . , . ( ) 15-20 , .

    , . , , .

    McKinsey & Company

    (2010) .. (2021)

    ( $ PPP)1

    31 41

    49 . , 1,5% , ~3%

    ($ PPP/ )1

    35 41-43 1,0% -

    1,3%

    30% 15%-20%

    2 14% 20%-25%

    %

    94% 75%-80%

    % 14.5% 20%-23%

    ( 20%, 23%)

    %

    -8.5% 0%-2%

    1 20092

    14

  • 27 10 :

    , . , , . , , , , , , .

    , . () 49 (~55 . ). 2021, . 520 . , 18 . . 9 . 6 . 4 ., 5 . , , 7 . ( 15).

    1,5%, - 3% . 1,5% (.. ), . , (.. ) (.. ) . , 20% ( 16).

    , . . 7 . 16,5 . 2021, ( 17).

  • 28

    McKinsey & Company

    15

    1910

    13

    20

    22

    24

    13

    9132

    +491(+59%)

    2021

    45

    22

    2016

    104

    34

    18

    5

    2010

    83

    27

    13

    8

    2

    470520

    610240280

    360810720

    780

    2.800

    +520 (+23%)

    2021

    870

    80

    100

    2016

    2.430

    770

    80

    60

    2010

    2.280

    650

    80

    30

    1 ~55 . : 2009 2010

    ~49 . ~520.000

    , 2010

    15

    McKinsey & Company

    () . 2010

    .

    2021

    271

    132

    139

    2010

    203

    83

    120~1.5%1

    ~5%

    2021

    5.0

    2.8

    2.2

    2010

    4.4

    2.3

    2.1

    ~3%

    0.5%

    2.0%

    1.3%

    1.0%

    2.7%

    1.6%

    5763

    2021

    542

    47

    2010

    462

    36

    ~20%

    1 ~1,5%2

    16

  • 29

    McKinsey & Company

    *

    . , 2010

    *: : , , ( ) , /

    2021

    16,5

    8,6

    0,71,2

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    2021

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    100 . :

    , (fast track) 2004. . .

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    ( ) .

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  • 30

    . , (, -, .) .

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    18 & 19 20 . , .

  • 31

    McKinsey & Company

    (1/2)

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    Fund 10 ( )

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    18

    McKinsey & Company

    (2/2)

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    (.., , ) (. )

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    (. )

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  • 32

    4.

  • 33 10 :

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    ( 20). 125 . ( 60% ) 3 . ( 70% ). (, , , ) 42% . , ( 50% ) . , , 8% 11% , . 18 . , 3 . ( ).

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    520 49 . .

    .

  • 34

    McKinsey & Company

    -

    -

    o ( -)

    /

    6

    3

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    87

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    HQ - / - outsourcing (.., , )

    McKinsey & Company: WIS Global Insight; EU KLEMS 2009; Eurostat

    6 5 ( ) 6 6 7 8 93 9 142 17 1 38

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    20

    21

  • 35 10 :

    4.1.

    4.1.1.

    15% . , ( 70%), . , , ( ). , 3%-4% .

    , , , . ( 22). (52% 3 ), . . , , , . , . , , ( , , , ). , . , (.. ) . , , . , , , .

    , 13 , ( 23):

    . ( : , , , : , , ) ( ) . , ( 62/38 55/45 / ) , , ( 24)

  • 36

    McKinsey & Company

    , %, 2009

    0.4

    1.2

    3.4

    3.1

    1.8

    0.6

    5.2

    6.6

    0.9

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    0.9

    0.7

    ~0

    ~0

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    , 2004-09

    : Euromonitor

    2

    4

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    14

    16

    ~22

    0.8

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    4

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    5

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    0

    2

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    9

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    28

    ~59 ~23~32

    -1.4 -0.2

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    10

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    ~81

    0.1

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    22

    . 2-3 (30-35 3-4 / ) ( 25). .

    . , ( ).

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    2021, 18 . 220 . 3 ., 9 . .

  • 37 10 :

    McKinsey & Company

    :

    432

    10

    -1

    -2-3-4

    -5-6

    2010

    111098743210

    0.7

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    1.3

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    % 2005-20101312

    65

    2.2

    , .

    -8-6

    -4-20

    246

    810

    121416

    1820

    9080

    % 200409

    3020100

    MICE1

    Wellness

    .

    11010070

    1 Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions

    : Euromonitor; WTCC

    24

    McKinsey & Company

    1 Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, Exhibitions2

    -

    A

    B

    (.. , /, marketing, /) -

    affluent/mass (>3.5%-4%) : . , , ,

    - , , (>1%), (>1%), (>0.5%)

    1

    Sun & Beach affluent-mass (45/55) City Break , MICE1, /yachting (>25% ) 2 (15-20 , ~50 )

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    7

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    8

    13

    23

  • 38

    McKinsey & Company

    21%35%

    30% 32%

    17%21%

    12% 8%

    41%34%

    52% 56%

    6%

    9.4

    4%

    296.34.9

    10%

    23.8

    21%

    1 .

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    2009 .

    .

    : G. P. Wild

    1 2

    25

    4.1.2.

    4% . (.. ). 2000-2008 ( ), . .

    ( 26), . , 10%-40% , 5%10% . ( ) , . , . .

    , , , . ,

  • 39 10 :

    (upstream), . .

    , 14 4 ( 27) .

    ( 28) . , . , 1 . 2021.

    . , ( ), , .. , .

    . , C 202020 .

    . , , .

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  • 40

    McKinsey & Company

    /

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    (smart metering) () ( ),

    5

    (.. ) / (.. CSP)

    11

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    14

    27

    McKinsey & Company

    MWh/

    14.812.717.814.215.8

    : Eurostat; Enerdata; DG

    11.78.35.64.16.8

    GWh/

    1.01.62.42.62.3

    29.826.325.519.623.3

    MWh/

    MWh/

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    , ( )

    2008,

    26

  • 41 10 :

    McKinsey & Company

    10

    2010-2021

    TWh

    ~20%

    10295

    88

    83

    88

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    20182016201420122010

    -19%86

    2021

    : CO2

    0,4

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    28

    4.1.3.

    20 ., 21% 15% .. 13% 8% . , , . , .

    , , (>100 ) , ( 29). , .

    , : () , 30% 20% , () , 25% 35% () , 10% 3% () . ( 30).

  • 42

    McKinsey & Company

    100+

    100

    37

    108

    199

    3

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    23

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    : , - media - : EL.STAT, 2006 ( )

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    29

    McKinsey & Company

    , , -

    . , 2010

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    2010

    17.0

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    # , 2007

    /. , 2010

    . , 2010

    386,049

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    30

  • 43 10 :

    , .., . , . , , , , , . . , '' . .

    , , , , , , .

    , , . . 3 60% . , , 1 , ( 31) , . , 28% 30% . .

    12 ( 32-33).

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  • 44

    . , ""/branding, (.. ), , , ( ) .

    . 4-6 ( , , ), .

    . ( ) , .

    2021 ( ) 6 ., 120.000 1,2 .

    McKinsey & Company

    ,

    . , 2009

    1

    150

    136

    107

    75

    55

    47

    47

    42

    36

    32

    30

    23

    150

    16

    230

    332

    364

    382

    431

    492

    492

    638

    794

    1092

    1404

    1500

    166

    2493 246

    46412 4521

    10

    0

    3

    2

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    13

    5

    4

    3

    5

    12

    7

    0

    17

    7

    2 3

    3

    3

    5

    60

    - % - 2009

    : 2.1/

    : 3.1/2

    : Comtrade

    ~50%

    1 2

    3

    15 , 8%, 92%

    31

  • 45 10 :

    McKinsey & Company

    (1/2)

    A

    B

    & (.., /

    , convenience / premium ) ) (.., , , ) ) gourmet (.., , )

    ( #10)

    3

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    32

    McKinsey & Company

    (2/2)

    , .., ( 100-

    150 ) , (.., , , , ),

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    ( ) ( #1): (KAM)

    ( #1): (KAM)

    : (KAMs)

    9

    10

    7

    8

    11

    12

    33

  • 46

    McKinsey & Company

    1 , 2 , 3 83% 4 SOURCE: UN Comtrade; Euromonitor; websearch

    12009; .

    -

    . &

    4

    CAGR>+5%

    CAGR

  • 47 10 :

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  • 66

  • 67 10 :

  • 68

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