Glencoe Social Studies CURRENT EVENTS...

Glencoe Social Studies

CURRENTEVENTS UPDATE

SPRING 2005

MOMENTS IN TIME

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primary-source documents

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Current Events UpdateGeorge W. Bush: American Revolutionary........................2

In Victory’s Glow.....................................................................4Four More Years......................................................................5How Bush Pulled It Off........................................................6✍ WORKSHEET: Interpreting Maps and Charts........................8What Happens to the Losing Team?.................................9 Obama’s Ascent.....................................................................10Who Might Be Nominated?................................................11Condi Gets Her Shot............................................................12Halting the Next 9/11............................................................13Does the U.S. Need a Draft?..............................................14

War by Fits and Starts.........................................................16The Great Sunni Hope........................................................18The Orange Revolution.......................................................19✍ WORKSHEET: Democracy in Ukraine.......................................21The Tragedy of Sudan..........................................................22Iran, Still Defiant..................................................................24The Eternal Agitator............................................................26

Basketball Brawl...................................................................27The Cafeteria Crusader.......................................................28The Sky’s the Limit..............................................................29Meltdown!.............................................................................30✍ WORKSHEET:Current Events in Review.....................................32Answers...................................................Inside Back Cover

election 2004

the supreme court the cabinet

war on terroru.s. military

iraq

ukraine

sudaniran

middle east

sportsschools

invention of the yearenvironment

G L E N C O E S O C I A L S T U D I E S

P E R S O N O F T H E Y E A R

N A T I O N

W O R L D

S O C I E T Y A N D S C I E N C E

2 time, december 27, 2004/january 3, 2005

By NANCY GIBBS and JOHN F. DICKERSON

Eagles rather than doves nestle in theOval Office Christmas tree, pinecones thesize of footballs are piled around the fire-place, and the President of the United Statesis pretty close to lounging in Armchair

One. He’s wearing a blue pinstripe suit, and hisshoes are shined bright enough toshave in. He is loose, lively, framinga point with his hands or extendinghis arm with his fingers up as thoughhe’s throwing a big idea gentlyacross the room.

“I’ve had a lot going on, so Ihaven’t been in a very reflectivemood,” says the man who has justreplaced half his Cabinet, dispatched12,000 more troops into battle, armwrestled lawmakers over an intelli-gence bill, held his third economic summit andbegun to lay the second-term paving stones onwhich he will walk off into history. Asked about hisre-election, he replies, “I think over the Christmasholidays it’ll all sink in.”

As he says this, George W. Bush is about to seta political record. The first Time poll since theelection has his approval rating at 49%. Galluphas it at 53%, which doesn’t sound bad unlessyou consider that it’s the lowest December ratingfor a re-elected President in Gallup’s history. Thatis not a great concern, however, since he has runhis last race, and it is not a surprise to a Presidentwho tends to measure his progress by the enemies

he makes. “Sometimes you’re defined by yourcritics,” he says. “My presidency is one that hasdrawn some fire, whether it be at home or aroundthe world. Unfortunately, if you’re doing big things,most of the time you’re never going to be aroundto see them [to fruition], whether it be culturalchange or spreading democracy in parts of theworld where people just don’t believe it can hap-

pen. I understand that. I don’t expectmany short-term historians to writenice things about me.”

Yet even halfway through his pres-idency, Bush says, he already seeshis historic gamble paying off. Hewatched in satisfaction the inaugu-ration of Afghan President HamidKarzai. “I’m not suggesting you’relooking at the final chapter inAfghanistan, but the elections wereamazing. And if you go back and

look at the prognosis about Afghanistan—whetherit be the decision [for the U.S. to invade] in the firstplace, the ‘quagmire,’ whether or not the people caneven vote—it’s a remarkable experience.” Bushviews his decision to press for the transformation ofAfghanistan and then Iraq—as opposed to “man-aging calm in the hopes that there won’t be anotherSeptember 11th, that the Salafist [radical Islamist]movement will somehow wither on the vine, thatsomehow these killers won’t get a weapon of massdestruction”—as the heart of not just his foreignpolicy but his victory. “The election was aboutthe use of American influence,” he says. “I canremember people trying to shift the debate. I

George W. Bush:American RevolutionaryThe 43rd President stuck to his guns (literally and figuratively), reshapedthe rules of politics to fit his ten-gallon-hat leadership style and persuaded a majority of voters that he deserves a second term in the White House


time, december 27, 2004/january 3, 2005 3

wanted the debate to be on a lot of issues, but I alsowanted everybody to clearly understand exactlywhat my thinking was. The debates and all thenoise and all the rhetoric were aimed at makingvery clear the stakes in this election when it comesto foreign policy.”

In that respect and throughout the 2004 cam-paign, Bush was guided by his own definition ofa winning formula. “People think during elections,‘What’s in it for me?’” says communications di-rector Dan Bartlett, and expanding democracy inIraq, a place voters were watching smolder on thenightly news, was not high on their list. Yet “everytime we’d have a speech and attempt to scale backthe liberty section, he would get mad at us,”Bartlett says. Sometimes thePresident would simply take hisblack Sharpie and write theword freedom between twoparagraphs to prompt himself togo into his extended argumentfor America’s efforts to plant theseeds of liberty in Iraq and therest of the Middle East.

An ordinary politician tellsswing voters what they want to hear; Bush invitedthem to vote for him because he refused to. Ordi-nary politicians need to be liked; Bush finds thehostility of his critics reassuring. Challengers runas outsiders, promising change; it’s an extraordinarypolitician who tries this while holding the titleLeader of the Free World. Ordinary Presidentshave made mistakes and then sought to redeemthemselves by admitting them; when Bush wastold by some fellow Republicans that his fate de-pended on confessing his errors, he blew them off.

For candidates, getting elected is the test thatcounts. Ronald Reagan did it by keeping thingsvague: It’s Morning in America. Bill Clinton did itby keeping things small, running in peaceful timeson school uniforms and V chips. Bush ran big andbold and specific all at the same time, rivalingReagan in breadth of vision and Clinton in tacticalingenuity. He surpassed both men in winningbigger majorities in Congress and the statehouses.And he did it all while conducting an increasinglyunpopular war, with an economy on tiptoes and a

public conflicted about many issues but most of allabout him.

The argument over whether his skill won therace and fueled a realignment of American politicsor whether he was the lucky winner of a coin-tosselection will last just as long as the debates amonghistorians over whether Dwight Eisenhower had a“hidden-hand strategy” in dealing with politicalproblems, Richard Nixon was at all redeemableand Reagan was an “amiable dunce.” Democratsmay conclude that they don’t need to learn a thing,since 70,000 Ohioans changing their minds wouldhave flipped the outcome and flooded the air-waves with commentary about the flamboyantlyfailed Bush presidency. It may be that a peculiar

chemistry of skills and instinctsand circumstances gave Bushhis victory in a way no futurecandidates can copy. But thatdoesn’t mean they won’t try.

In the meantime, the lessonsBush draws from his victory arethe ones that matter most. Theman who in 2000 promised tounite and not divide now sounds

as though he is prepared to leave as his second-termlegacy the Death of Compromise. “I’ve got thewill of the people at my back,” he said at the mo-ment of victory. From here on out, bipartisanshipmeans falling in line: “I’ll reach out to everyone whoshares our goals.” Whatever spirit of cooperationthat survives in his second term may have to befound among his opponents; he has made it clearhe’s not about to change his mind as he takes onSocial Security and the tax code in pursuit of his“ownership society.” So unfolds the strange andsurprising and high-stakes decade of Bush.

For sharpening the debate until the choicesbled, for reframing reality to match his design, forgambling his fortunes—and ours—on his faith inthe power of leadership, George W. Bush is Time’s2004 Person of the Year. ■

Questions

1. Why did Time select George W. Bush as itsPerson of the Year for 2004?2. What does Bush see as the key to his victory?


For sharpening the debateuntil the choices bled,

and for reframing reality to match his design,

George W. Bush is TIME’s2004 Person of the Year.

4 time, november 15, 2004

In Victory’s GlowHow the Bush team orchestrated itsnail-biting win in the 2004 electionBy NANCY GIBBS

Tuesday, november 2, 2004, was the nightthe ghosts died in the Bush White House.There was the ghost of hislast campaign, which GeorgeW. Bush lost among voters

but won in the Supreme Court. Therewas the ghost of his father’s last cam-paign, when even winning a war wasnot enough to earn a second term.And then there was the ghost of Elec-tion Day afternoon, when the Bushcampaign team was haunted by thepossibility that they had got it allwrong, as the first exit polls came inand nothing was going their way.

In the end, an election that was supposed to beabout all the ways the country is divided at leastbrought Americans together at 193,000 pollingplaces in democracy’s messy leap of faith. In Ohiothe polls closed at 7:30, but the lines were so longthat people were still voting at midnight. Somepeople admitted they just did not want to facetheir neighbors or their children and say they hadnot bothered to show up. Others said if you don’tvote, you can’t complain and did not want to besilent at a time like this.

About 120 million Americans voted, 15 millionmore than in 2000. When the votes were tallied,Republican George W. Bush had won 286 electoralvotes to 251 for Senator John Kerry, the Democraticcandidate. Of the three most hotly contested swingstates, Kerry took Pennsylvania, while Bush snaggedFlorida and Ohio. Bush also became the first Pres-ident since 1988 to win a majority of the popularvote, with about 51% to 48.5% for Kerry.

So consider the obstacles Bush overcame towin the election. Since the country previouslymet at the polls, voters have encountered a recorddeficit, job losses, airport shoe searches, rising

bankruptcies, and bruising battles over stem-cellresearch and the definition of marriage. On theeve of Election Day, fully 55% of voters said thecountry was moving in the wrong direction. Only49% approved of the job the President was doing,and anything below 50% is supposed to be fatal toan incumbent. A war that Bush promised wouldcost no more than $50 billion a year is running atnearly three times that. And he faced an opponentwith a long record of public service, a shiny record

from a war Bush had avoided, and aDemocratic base that had neverbeen so united.

Bush says the war on terrorism isnot a clash of civilizations, but thiscampaign was, by his careful design.He never really pretended to havemuch to say to Democrats beyond Iwill keep you safe. He relied largelyinstead on inspiring those whoagreed with him already, who thinkstem-cell research has been oversold

and believe abortion is a sin. His 97% approvalrate within his party surpassed even RonaldReagan’s. Bush understood that his best weaponagainst Kerry was less what Bush did than who hewas. You may disagree with me, he said at everystop, but you know where I stand.

For Kerry supporters, there is some consolationthat Bush will have to take responsibility for fin-ishing what he started in Iraq. For Bush supporters,there is an obligation to recognize that the intenseeffort of the other side was as much an expressionof love of country as any pledge, hymn or flag. Forpeople on both sides, there is relief that the dayaffirmed the sustaining virtue of Americandemocracy. However fierce the battle and howeverhigh the stakes, on Election Day citizens go to thepolls, close a curtain, and cast their vote—and thengo home to honor the outcome because we haveonly one President at a time. ■

Questions

1. How many electoral votes did Bush and Kerryeach win?2. What obstacles did Bush overcome to win the2004 election?

E L E C T I O N 2 0 0 4

time, november 15, 2004 5

Four More YearsWill a second term bring a kinder, gentler George W. Bush?By JOE KLEIN

In the days before george w. bush wasre-elected President of the United States, astory spread through the back alleys of official

Washington: Bush had allegedly called Secretaryof State Colin Powell into his officeand said, “I had to be a war Presi-dent in my first term. I want to bea peace President in my secondterm, and I need you to stay onand help me do that.” The storywas false. Several of Powell’s closeassociates not only denied the story but alsolaughed when they heard it—they have seen nopalpable evidence that Bush plans to changecourse in a second term. At about the same time,another story began to circulate, this one involvingBush and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. “Inmy second term,” the President told Annan, “Iwant to secure a Middle East peace—but I don’twant to fall into the same trap as Clinton.” Thatstory is true, according to several sources.

In fact, no one really knows what sort of Pres-ident Bush will show up on Jan. 20 to begin hissecond term. There are two schools of wishfulthinking. One is the “legacy” school, composedmostly of Washington-establishment Republicansof both moderate and conservative hue. “Secondterms are about legacy,” said a g.o.p. establish-mentarian. “I think you’ll see a midcourse cor-rection and admission of errors on Iraq now thatthe Democrats can’t make a negative ad aboutit. I think you’ll see him make a real move onexpanding health care and tax simplification. Hemay try some small Social Security-privatizationdemonstration projects. He will have to address thebudget deficit. He will want to find ways to coop-erate with Democrats to get things accomplished.”

The other school—composed of religious conser-vatives, neoconservatives and most Democrats—

scoffs at the idea of an outbreak of diplomacy andbipartisanship. Bush is who he is: bold, tough,faith based, unyielding. In this scenario, Bush willnot only hang tough in Iraq, he’ll also confrontIran about its nuclear arms program, not give aninch to North Korea and stand shoulder to shoulderwith Ariel Sharon. He will aggressively pursue theprivatization of Social Security, the voucherizationof health care and the dramatic simplification of thetax code. He will do this, supporters say, because hethinks he is a leader of rare vision—or because,detractors say, he is a leader of rare arrogance.

Of course, reality forces eventhe most stubborn politicians tomake U-turns—and in the nextfour years, Bush will have to spendmuch of his time dealing with theunpleasant realities he spent thepast two campaign years denying.

There are at least four titanic “reality-based”problems that this “faith-based” President nowconfronts. First, the U.S. does not have the militaryresources to continue an expansive, unilateralforeign policy; we may not even have the resourcesto maintain our troop strength in Iraq at its currentlevel for very long. Second, we don’t have themoney to fund any of Bush’s domestic plans—certainly not the privatization of Social Security,which has an up-front cost of $1 trillion. Third,Democrats are furious at the tone of the Bushcampaign and in no mood to cooperate on any-thing. Finally, there is explosive anger amongtraditional g.o.p. fiscal conservatives—and amongthose who believe the war in Iraq was eitherwrong from the start or stupidly executed.

Bush’s instinctive style defeated John Kerry’scerebral calculations. The question now is whetherBush’s political instincts lead him back to thethings he promised in 2000: to be a more com-passionate conservative, to run a humble foreignpolicy, to be a uniter not a divider. ■

Questions

1. What are the two schools of thought about thepossible priorities for George W. Bush’s secondterm as President?2. What four “reality-based” problems face Bush?

E L E C T I O N 2 0 0 4

No one really knowswhich President Bush will

show up on Jan. 20 tobegin his second term.


With a margin of about 13,000 votes, Bush became the first Republican to carry Iowa since Ronald Reagan in 1984. The state’s younger voters favored Kerry, while most married voters supported Bush.

BushKerry

46% 53%

Small-city andrural voters:

BushKerry

30%

69%

Voters who seeeconomyas good:

The scene of the election nightmare four years ago was relatively quiet this time, with President Bush scoring a solid 5-point win. Bush increased his showing among Hispanics, blacks and voters younger than 65. Turnout increased by 1.4 million over 2000 BushKerry

42%57%

Catholics:

BushKerry

44%56%

Hispanics:

IOWA FLORIDA

2004 election national results

How Bush Pulled It OffArmed with critical victories in Ohio and Florida, the President got more votes than he did in 2000, with moral values trumping the economy as a prime issue

BushKerry

58%41%

WISCONSIN

Kerry squeezed out a narrow victory with support from young and first-time voters. A majority felt the country is safer from terrorism and approved of the war in Iraq, but also said the war is going badly

OHIO PENNSYLVANIA

First-timevoters:

BushKerry

38% 43%

Even though 55% of Ohio voters said the job situation is worse today than four years ago, more felt Bush could better handle the economy. Kerry made it a close race by doing well in Cleveland

Trust tohandle theeconomy:

BushKerry

61%

39%

A strong turnout in Philadelphia gave Kerry enough of a boost to overcome Bush’s 2-to-1 lead in rural areas. Kerry gained wide support from young voters but split the over-65 vote with Bush

Votersunder 30:

Wash.11

Ore.7

Mont.3

Idaho4

Wyo.3

Nev.5

Calif.55

Utah5

Ariz.10

N.M.5

Colo.9

N.D.3

S.D.3

Neb.5

Kans.6

Okla.7

Texas34

Minn.9*

Wis.10

Mich.17

Ohio20

Iowa7

Ill.21

Mo.11

Ind.11

Ky.8

Tenn. 11

N.Y.31

Maine4

Alaska3

Hawaii4

Mass.12

R.I. 4Conn.7N.J. 15Del. 3Md. 10D.C. 3

Pa.21

Ark.6

Miss.6

Ala.9

Ga.15

S.C.8

N.C.15

Va.13

W.Va.5

Fla.27

La.9

Needed to win: 270 electoral votes

� Bush states—286 electoral votes

� Kerry states—251 electoral votes

Vt.3

N.H.4

*One of Minnesota’s10 electors voted for John Edwards,

not John Kerry

Voter demographics are from the National Election Pool exit poll conducted by Edison/Mitofsky. Source: APMargin of error is ±3 percentage points for national data and ±4 percentage points for state data

HOW THE ELECTORAL VOTES ADD UP


HOWCLOSEWAS IT?

POPULAR VOTE

ELECTORAL VOTE

Ohio

Iowa

New Mexico

The red states remain rock solid for Bush, giving the President an average victory margin of almost 20 points. Kerry’s wins tend to be closer

Key to chart

Close calls

Height of blocksrepresents eachstate’s number ofelectoral votes

Width of blocksrepresents thecandidate’s marginof victory in eachstate

BushKerry48.5% 51%

Nader, others: 1%

Edwards: 1

286

Bush251

Kerry5

7

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Electoralvotes won

Bush’s margin of victoryin the states he won

Kerry’s margin of victoryin the states he won

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

210

220

230

240

250

260

270

California

Florida

Pennsylvania

Michigan

Washington

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Oregon

Nevada

New Hampshire

New York

Illinois

New Jersey

Massachusetts

Maryland

Connecticut

Rhode Island

Hawaii

MaineDelaware

Vermont

D.C.

BUSHstates

KERRYstates

Texas

Missouri

Arizona

Colorado

Arkansas

WestVirginia

NorthCarolina

Georgia

Virginia

Tennessee

Indiana

Alabama

Louisiana

Kentucky

SouthCarolina

Oklahoma

Kansas

Mississippi

Nebraska

Utah

Idaho

Alaska

Montana

North Dakota

South Dakota

Wyoming

BREAKING DOWNTHE NATIONAL VOTE

Hispanics

First-timevoters

AfricanAmericans

WHERE KERRY HAD THE EDGE

Not married

Those who disapprove of the U.S. decision to go to war with Iraq

National exit polls found that the top issue for voters was not Iraq (15%) or the economy (20%) but moral values (22%)

Bush

Kerry

BushKerry

BushKerry54%

11%

87%

Those for whom the economy/jobs was most importantBush

Kerry

18%

80%

45%

55% 42%

Bush

Kerry

BushKerry59% 40%

89%

11%

WHERE BUSH HAD THE EDGE

Married women

Veterans

White males

Once-a-weekchurchgoers

Those for whom terrorism was the most important issueBush

Kerry

BushKerry

BushKerry42%

86%

14%

Those for whom moral values was the most important issueBush

Kerry

79%

18%

57%

45% 54%BushKerry

BushKerry41% 58%

38% 61%

TIME Graphic by Jackson Dykman and Joe Lertola

8 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures

Name Date ✍WORKSHEET

Interpreting Maps and Charts“How Bush Pulled It Off” on pages 6 and 7features a series of graphs and charts, alongwith a map showing the breakdown of elec-toral votes. These visual aids are packed withinformation, but what does it all mean? Usethe questions below to sharpen your skills inreading and interpreting graphics.

How Bush Pulled It Off1. How many states have more than 20 electoral votes? Name them. Of these, howmany did George W. Bush win?

2. How many states have fewer than five electoral votes? Name them. Of these, howmany did John Kerry win?

3. By how many people did turnout in Floridaincrease between 2000 and 2004?

4. What was the key to Kerry’s victoryin Pennsylvania?

Breaking Down the National Vote5. Of those who felt terrorism was the most important issue in the election, Bush received____% more of the votes than Kerry.

6. Of those who disapproved of the U.S. decisionto go to war in Iraq, Kerry received ____%more of the votes than Bush.

7. True or false: Bush had the edge withwhite-male and married-women voters.

8. True or false: Kerry had the edge amongveterans and African Americans.

How Close Was It?9. How many electoral votes does it take towin the presidency?

10. According to the graphic, where did eachcandidate have the largest margin of victory?

11. According to the graphic, where did eachcandidate have the smallest margin of victory?

12. If Senator Kerry had won Ohio or Florida,how would it have changed the outcome of theelection? Explain.


What Happens toThe Losing Team?Having lost five of the past seven presidential elections, the Democrats haveto decide whether to reinvent their party

By JAMES CARNEY

Coming after the 2000 cliffhanger and anegative, hard-fought campaign, it’s no surprisethat John Kerry’s loss would leave Democrats

deflated and searching for answers. “We had themoney, we had a ground operation the likes ofwhich has never been seen, and we had a good can-didate who stood toe to toe with the President andbested him in three debates,” sighs Harold Ickes,who ran two of the cash-rich outside groups thathelped Democrats contend with the g.o.p. fund-raising advantage. “We had all that, and we still lost.People are going to ask, ‘What do we have to do?’”

Because the election was so close and becausethe war in Iraq and loathing of Bush were thechief propellants fueling the Democrats’ campaign,party professionals and activists seem disinclinedto engage in much self-criticism while Bush re-mains in the White House. “The threat posed byBush unified the party,” says Robert Borosage,co-director of Campaign for America’s Future, aliberal advocacy group. “And he’ll continue tounify Democrats in a second term.” It was thewillingness of Howard Dean and progressiveorganizations like MoveOn.orgto attack the Republican Pres-ident and his policies directly,adds Borosage, that “gave theDemocratic Party its voice andits will to win. The progressivescome out of this emboldenedby what they were able to do.They feel like they have thepower to change politics.”

The capacity of indepen-dent nonparty organizations

like MoveOn and Americans Coming Together toraise money and mobilize anti-Bush voters hasacted like a fresh rain on the Democratic Party’sparched grass roots. Even though the Democraticcandidate lost, the party and the broader networkof liberal, anti-Bush organizations succeeded in raising record sums of money and enlisting unprecedented numbers of volunteers. Far frombeing distraught about the election, the way theywere after 2000, many Democrats sound sur-prisingly upbeat about the future.

Already, potential candidates for 2008 are beinghandicapped. Despite her name, Hillary Clintonmight not be the most Clintonesque candidate inthe race for the nomination. That distinction wouldbelong to John Edwards if he runs, as manyDemocratic insiders assume he will. Supporters ofKerry’s running mate are quick to point out that theonly Democrats to win the White House in thepast 44 years—Clinton, Carter and Johnson—wereSoutherners. For Democratic activists tired ofWashington insiders, Dean remains an option. Hisbid for the nomination helped spark the activismthat transformed the party and revolutionized theway Democrats raise money.

No matter who emerges as the next leader of theDemocratic Party, he or she will be under tremen-dous pressure to take the fight to the g.o.p., and towin. The Democrats have now lost five of the pastseven presidential elections and seven of the past10. Over the past 30 years, the party has seen itsmajorities in Congress, in Governor’s mansionsand in state legislatures all disappear. For the firsttime since the 1920s, more Americans identifythemselves as Republicans than as Democrats.

Which means that losing againin 2008 wouldn’t just be dis-appointing for the Democrats.It could leave the party in thewilderness for many years. ■

Questions

1. Why are some Democratsupbeat about the future? 2. Which Democrats are beingwatched as possible presiden-tial candidates in 2008?

E L E C T I O N 2 0 0 4

The Shifting Balance Of Power in CongressHOUSE (all seats up for election)

Republicans Democrats IndependentOld 227 205 1 (2 vacancies)New 232 202 1

SENATE (34 seats up for election)Republicans Democrats Independent

Old 51 48 1New 55 44 1


Obama’s AscentHow do you leap from neighborhood activistto U.S. Senator to perhaps higher office?

By AMANDA RIPLEY

In january, barack obama, 43, will becomethe only African American in the U.S. Senate—and just the third in the past 100 years. While

that alone should be ample cause for contemplation,Obama’s is really a story about what might be. In thepast year, Obama has been compared, in all seri-ousness, to Abraham Lincoln, Martin Luther KingJr. and Bill Clinton. Democrats debate whetherhe should run for President in 2012 or 2016.

In Washington the test begins. As the only blackSenator, Obama will face expectations that will behard to fulfill—especially if he wants to be a nationalcandidate someday. Luckily, one of Obama’s giftsis that he is meticulously self-aware, and he knowsthat the frenzy that surrounds him doesn’t entirelymake sense. Shortly before his victory,Obama spoke to Time at his cam-paign headquarters in Chicago.“What’s going on? I’m not entirelysure,” he said. “I think what peopleare most hungry for in politics rightnow is authenticity.”

The turning point in Obama’s career came inBoston on July 27, 2004, when he delivered one ofthe best speeches in convention history. Facingthousands of needy Democrats, he described acountry that America wants very badly to be: acountry not pockmarked by racism and fear. Hedescribed a place in which an African immigrantcould marry a Midwestern white woman andtheir middle-class son could go to Harvard LawSchool and run for the U.S. Senate. Say what youwill about America’s current reputation in theworld, but few would argue with his central, shin-ing point: “In no other country on earth is mystory even possible.”

Obama is a master at shaping his own mythol-ogy. When he talks of his childhood, we hear littleof the years he spent growing up in Hawaii, of hisfondness for bodysurfing and sashimi. Instead we

hear in every speech that his mother was fromKansas (“That’s why I talk the way I do”) and hisfather was from Kenya (“He grew up herding goats,went to school in a tin-roof shack”).

Obama’s background resonates because it proveshis points. Like other young African-Americanpoliticians, from Congressmen Harold Ford Jr. ofTennessee to Artur Davis of Alabama, Obama doesnot sound like a civil-rights-era black politician. Hisstyle, as he puts it, is “not accusing but challengingAmericans to live up to the highest ideals.”

As he grew older, Obama wove in and out of theEstablishment. After graduating from ColumbiaUniversity in New York City, he moved to Chicagoto be a community organizer. Four years later, hewent to Harvard Law. In 1996 Obama ran for statesenate and won. Impatient, he leaped again in2000, this time challenging four-term U.S. Con-gressman Bobby Rush. A former Black Panther,Rush ridiculed Obama as a Harvard-educatedcarpetbagger. Obama got hammered, losing 2 to 1.

This year Obama chose a better race—for anopen Senate seat. Then he got lucky.In the primary, his millionaire oppo-nent, Blair Hull, was undone by mediarevelations that his ex-wife had soughta restraining order against him. Inthe general election, Republican Jack

Ryan withdrew after his ex-wife made damagingallegations. Finally, the state’s straggling RepublicanParty imported Alan Keyes—an arch-conservativefrom Maryland—to run against Obama.

For now, Richard Durbin, the senior Senatorfrom Illinois, counsels Obama to follow the modelof Hillary Clinton. As a national figure enteringthe Senate with more buzz than clout, Clinton didher homework, kept her head down and stayed intireless contact with her New York constituents.Gradually, her political capital rose. Obama says heplans to ask for her advice. Depending on howthe conversation goes, maybe they could wageron the chances of them ever running together forthe White House. ■

Questions

1. Describe Barack Obama’s background.2. How did Obama “get lucky” in the 2004 election?

E L E C T I O N 2 0 0 4

“In no other countryon earth is my story

even possible.” —Barack Obama


Who Might BeNominated?Looking ahead to the Supreme Court’s future

During his second term, george w. bushmay have the opportunity to nominate asmany as three new justices to the U.S.

Supreme Court, remaking the court for a gener-ation. The first nomination—which could comewithin a matter of weeks—would fill the openingthat will be left by the ailing Chief Justice WilliamH. Rehnquist, who announced in October thathe was being treated for thyroid cancer. Rehn-quist has led the court since 1986, when RonaldReagan named him Chief Justice.

It is not entirely clear that Bushfaces a confirmation fight over a re-placement for Rehnquist if itamounts, as a Senate Democraticaide put it, to “trading an 80-year-oldright-wing conservative for ayounger right-wing conservative.You are not actually changing the balance of power.”But if a moderate or liberal Justice, such as JohnPaul Stevens, Ruth Bader Ginsburg or Sandra DayO’Connor, retires, then the balance on the benchwill be at stake—particularly when it comes to thefate of the court’s 1973 abortion ruling in Roe v.Wade, which conservatives have said they wouldlike to overturn. If Bush tries to replace any ofthose Justices with younger, fire-breathing con-servatives, said a Republican official who has beenwatching the court for 25 years, “then it’s a fight.”

Democrats have become experts at blockingnominees they oppose, but they can’t stop themall. Some of the likely candidates who might benominated include:

Alberto Gonzales Gonzales, Bush’s longtime WhiteHouse counsel and a former Texas supreme courtjudge, has been nominated to replace John Ashcroftas Attorney General. Gonzales, 49, who for a decadehas been at Bush’s side in a variety of top jobs,

would be the first Hispanic American to take thehelm at Justice. He was chosen to change the tone,if not necessarily the shape, of legal policy in thesecond half of the Bush presidency. But manyobservers believe that he is being sent throughthe Senate confirmation process now in part aspreparation for a spot on the Supreme Court later.

J. Harvie Wilkinson III He sits on the highly con-servative Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals in Rich-mond, Va. Courtly and personable, Wilkinson, 60,is probably confirmable. But naming a white maleto the bench wouldn’t give Bush a historic first.

J. Michael Luttig Appointed by the first Presi-dent Bush in 1991, Luttig serves with Wilkinson onthe Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals, but is moreindependent and hard-line. One advantage: at

50 he is a decade younger thanhis colleague.

John Roberts Put on the D.C. Cir-cuit Court of Appeals by Bush,Roberts, 49, was once a Rehnquistclerk and later, in private practice,argued many cases before the

Supreme Court. A highly regarded judge, he couldhave bipartisan support.

Theodore B. Olson Serving as Bush’s SolicitorGeneral until recently, Olson, 64, is smart, con-servative and well regarded. He represented thePresident’s side in Bush v. Gore in 2000. His wifeBarbara was killed in the 9/11 attacks.

Janice Rogers Brown Her nomination to the D.C.Circuit Court of Appeals was blocked by Demo-crats, so Brown, 55, could face confirmation prob-lems again. The first African-American woman toserve on California’s supreme court, she is againstabortion rights. ■

Questions

1. Which Supreme Court Justice is expected toretire soon?2. Who are some likely candidates that Bush mightnominate to serve on the Supreme Court?tion.

T H E S U P R E M E C O U R T

Bush may get to fill asmany as three Supreme

Court openings, remaking the court for

a generation.


Condi Gets Her ShotShe argued the hard-liners’ case on Iraq. But the next Secretary of State remains an ideological puzzle

By MASSIMO CALABRESI

In one of the photo albums in her westWing office, Condoleezza Rice keeps a pictureof herself and President George W. Bush in a

rowboat on a pond at the President’s ranch inCrawford, Texas. Bush is standing at one end,peering over the edge at the bass in his stockedfishing hole. Rice is sitting at theother end, visibly uncomfortable.She may love talking sports withthe President, but she’s no fan ofthe water. “She can swim, but shedoesn’t like it,” says a friend. “Sheand the outdoors are only on dis-tant acquaintance.”

It is a measure of Rice’s successat building their relationship that Bush is com-fortable testing her, even during the off-hours. Shestarted out as his tutor on foreign affairs when hewas still Governor of Texas. Now that Bush hasnominated Rice to replace Colin Powell as hisSecretary of State, the question is where she standson the foreign policy fights of the day. Despitefour years as National Security Advisor, Rice hasshown few fixed ideological beliefs.

On several issues, Rice has changed positionsdramatically, shifting from a hard-nosed studentof realpolitik to a true believer in Bush’s vision ofspreading democracy. She originally rebuffedattempts by Russian President Vladimir Putin tobuild relations with the Administration but thenaccepted him as an ally after Bush famously said

he had looked into Putin’s soul. When King Ab-dullah of Jordan first proposed in the summer of2002 that Bush launch a road map to peace for theArab-Israeli conflict, Rice tried to block it butlater became a fervent backer. In 2000 shescorned the use of U.S. troops for nation building,but has undertaken monumental military recon-struction projects in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Critics say that more often than not she simplyhas settled into orbit around the real power cen-ters of U.S. foreign policy: Vice President Dick Cheney and his ally Defense Secretary DonaldRumsfeld. “She’s getting this job because she’snot a threat,” says retired Lieut. General WilliamOdom of the conservative Hudson Institute. WhenRice tried to impose order on prewar planning,Rumsfeld ignored her. Vice President Cheney

established a broad and powerfulshadow National Security Councilearly in the Administration andused his close relationship withBush to drive White House deci-sion making.

Few Democrats want to be onthe record voting against the firstblack woman named Secretary of

State. Still, Rice will undoubtedly be grilled abouther record and management. She faced criticismfor placing counterterrorism low on her list ofpriorities in the nine months before 9/11. And sheshares the blame both for letting the now dis-credited allegations that Saddam Hussein wasseeking uranium in Africa get into Bush’s 2003State of the Union speech and for hyping the sig-nificance of high-strength aluminum tubes Iraqtried to buy abroad. Despite these concerns, how-ever, Rice is virtually certain to be confirmed by theSenate. ■

Questions

1. Whom will Rice replace as Secretary of State?2. On what issues has Rice changed her position?

T H E C A B I N E T

Despite four years as oneof the Administration’smost vocal advocates,

Rice has shown few fixed

ideological beliefs.

Cabinet Shuffle Within a month of Bush’s re-election, nine members of his Cabinet announced their resignations. In addition to Colin Powell, they include: Tom Ridge, Secretary of Homeland Security; John Ashcroft, Attorney General; RodPaige, Education Secretary; Donald L. Evans, Commerce Secretary; Tommy Thompson, Secretary of Health and Human Services;Ann Veneman, Agriculture Secretary; Spencer Abraham, Energy Secretary; and Anthony Principi, Veterans Affairs Secretary.

time, august 2, 2004 13

Halting the Next 9/11The commission’s report presents a comprehensive history—and proposes dramatic reform to thwart another attack

By ROMESH RATNESAR

At 567 pages, THE 9/11 COMMISSION REPORT

rocketed to the top of Amazon.com’s best-seller list because it was big news. But it de-

serves to be there. The commission has producedone of the most riveting, disturbing and revealingaccounts of crime, espionage and the inner work-ings of government ever written.

Even for obsessive historianswho have vacuumed up everyavailable fact and theory about9/11, the report provides a troveof rich new details. The commis-sion scoured 2.5 million docu-ments, many of them classified,and interviewed more than 1,200people, including PresidentsGeorge W. Bush and Bill Clinton.The result is the most compre-hensive history of 9/11 to date.

The narrative of what happened that dayand in the months and years leading up to itwill enthrall readers. In places, it all unfurls like anepisode of CSI, with chapter titles like “We HaveSome Planes” and “Heroism and Horror.” Osamabin Laden is portrayed as a micromanager whowanted to hit the White House and personallychose all of the “muscle” hijackers. There are tellingdetails about the lives and passions of the hijack-ers. For example, the 9/11 scheme nearly founderedseveral times over the terrorists’ personal tribula-tions. Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the plot’s mas-termind, became enraged when one hijacker-in-waiting flew home to Yemen after the birth of achild. Mohammed wanted him dropped from theoperation, but bin Laden refused. When the way-ward Nawaq Alhazmi grew lonely waiting for

orders in San Diego, Mohammed allowed him tosearch for a wife on the Internet. Another hijacker,Ziad Samir Jarrah, left the U.S. as many as fivetimes to visit his girlfriend in Germany in the yearbefore 9/11. He even sent her a last love letter, theonly hijacker known to have written a farewell.

New details emerge about the scene on boardUnited Flight 93, which crashed in a field inShanksville, Pa. The report concludes that thosewho rushed the cockpit never made it inside but didprevent the plane from reaching its target—eitherthe Capitol or the White House. With passengers onthe verge of breaking in, Jarrah, the pilot, asked an-other hijacker, “Is that it? Should we put it down?”The answer was yes, and moments later the planeplowed into the ground.

The chapters on how the government trackedand dealt with the threat from al-Qaeda before 9/11 fascinate anddispirit. Ten missed opportunitiesare identified—four during theClinton era, six in Bush’s first eightmonths—and each leaves the read-er wondering, What if? In earlyAugust 2001, Bush received hisnow famous cia briefing that binLaden wanted to attack inside theU.S., but didn’t appear alarmed.

The authors of the report hopethey have sounded a call to battle. In officialWashington, the arrival of the tome wasgreeted with a grim solemnity that reflect-

ed the panel’s decision to apportion blame acrossdozens of agencies spanning two presidencies.The report singles out the U.S.’s sprawling intelli-gence apparatus for an overhaul, hammering thenation’s intelligence officials for their inability topiece together Osama bin Laden’s plot—and raisingnew doubts about whether they are better posi-tioned to detect the next one. π

Questions

1. What sort of research did members of the 9/11commission conduct to write their report? 2. What part of the United States government dothe authors of the 9/11 report single out as inneed of an overhaul?

W A R O N T E R R O R

The chapters on howthe government tracked

and dealt with the threat from al-Qaeda before 9/11 fascinate

and dispirit.

By MARK THOMPSON

Over the course of the u.s. adventurein Iraq, military commanders and BushAdministration officials have been unitedin their insistence that they have enoughtroops to win the war, despite the fact that

parts of the country have slipped out of the controlof the U.S. and its Iraqi allies as the insurgency hasgrown in ferocity. That consensus seemed tocrumble when L. Paul Bremer III, former top U.S.official in Iraq, told a West Virginia audience that“we never had enough troops on the ground” toprevent the looting and chaos thatwracked Baghdad following the U.S.invasion. Bremer later scrambled toamend his remarks, contending thatwhatever the shortfalls last spring,the U.S. now has sufficient numbersin Iraq.

The Pentagon is rushing to train200,000 Iraqi troops to take overcombat duties by next August, butmeanwhile the U.S. military istrapped in a nation-building marathon that theArmy is ill prepared to carry out. Among someAmericans, the prospect of an open-ended U.S.commitment in Iraq has heightened anxieties thatmanpower shortages may lead the Pentagon toreinstitute the draft.

In a Time poll taken before the second presi-dential debate, 42% of those surveyed said theybelieve that if Bush is re-elected he will reinstitutethe draft, while only 21% believe Kerry would.Pentagon officials, field commanders and bothpresidential candidates insist a draft is neithernecessary nor desirable and that the U.S. can main-tain its commitments with an all-volunteer Army.Yet speculation about the return of conscriptionhas become so rampant that House Republicans

tried to dispel the rumors by forcing a vote on a no-hope bill to reinstate the draft. (It lost, 402 to 2.)“We’ve got 295 million people in this country,”Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said before thevote. “We don’t need a draft.”

Maybe not, but there is plenty of evidence thatthe U.S. does need to find more troops. Deployedin more than 120 nations around the world, fromIraq to Mongolia, the nation’s fighting forces arestretched, by all accounts, to the breaking point.Since 9/11, the number of active-duty and reservisttroops deployed overseas has shot up from 203,000to 500,000. All the Army’s combat brigades have

been dispatched into war zones overthe past two years; some have al-ready gone twice. The demands ofwar in Iraq and Afghanistan haveforced the U.S. to keep some units ona constant combat footing, reducingthe recuperation and retraining pe-riod that experts say is essential tomaintain a first-rate Army.

There are signs that the strain oflong deployments and the danger of

serving in Iraq have diminished the appeal of mil-itary service. The Army National Guard reportedthat for the first time in a decade, it fell about10%—or 5,000 soldiers—short of its annual goalfor recruits. The pool of young people who havecommitted in 2004 to join the Army next year isonly 18% of the total required, about half what theArmy likes to have banked away. Roughly a third ofthe 3,900 Individual Ready Reservists mobilized forcombat—who thought their days in uniform wereover—are resisting the military’s call-up. “Theseare the cracks that are beginning to show,” SenatorJack Reed, Democrat of Rhode Island and a formerArmy officer, told Time. “With more deployments,those cracks are going to get bigger. We’re in gravedanger of breaking the force.”

U. S . M I L I T A R Y

14 time, october 18, 2004

Does the U.S. Need a Draft?The White House says no. But with America tied down in Iraq, militaryofficials say they may need more troops to win this war—and the next one

Deployed in morethan 120 nationsaround the world,

from Iraq to Mongolia,the nation’s fightingforces are stretched,

by all accounts, to the breaking point.

time, october 18, 2004 15

U. S . M I L I T A R Y

What can be done? The Pentagon has applieda host of manpower tourniquets to keep bodies inuniform and on the front lines. For example, themilitary has issued “stop loss” orders that haveprohibited thousands of soldiers at the end oftheir enlistment obligations from leaving if theirunits are bound for Iraq, a policy some havelikened to a “back-door draft.”

The Bush Administration has resisted calls forexpanding the Army and instead has focused on itsgoal of “transforming” the military into a moremobile, lethal force. Rumsfeld has made clear thathe wants no permanent increase in troops for theU.S. Army (though he has okayed a temporary30,000 hike). He’s pushing a four-pronged offensivedesigned to give the Army 30% more combatpunch without permanently adding soldiers. Thisplan involves breaking the Army into smaller, morepotent units, pulling calcified forces out of cold-warstrongholds like Western Europe and South Korea,and shifting military policing and other nation-

building skills from the reserves to the active-dutyforce. They’re hiring contractors to perform manyof the noncombat missions now being done bysoldiers, so that those troops can put their fingerson triggers instead of keyboards. The goal is tostreamline the military’s cumbersome, costly bu-reaucracy. Bush summed up the rationale for thispush: “We don’t need mass armies anymore.”

Even if the Administration succeeds in remakingthe military, the failure to bolster troop levels car-ries short-term risks. In August, a classified studyrequested by Rumsfeld concluded that there are“inadequate total numbers” of U.S. troops to main-tain the current pace of operations around theworld. Some military experts fear that if a crisiserupted with Iran and North Korea, the U.S. wouldbe unable to credibly threaten the use of forcebecause of its obligations in Iraq and Afghanistan.“We can’t respond to another major crisis rightnow,” says retired Army General Barry McCaffrey.

The Pentagon believes that in a crunch it canbring in more soldier volunteers by offering newrecruits higher salaries and benefits and danglingbonuses as high as $40,000 for highly trained andspecialized troops to re-enlist. (The average soldierreceives $7,500.) But given the scale of the U.S.commitment in Iraq and the range of potentialconflicts beyond it, a few military experts are be-ginning to say the U.S. may someday reach a pointwhere it will have no choice but to reconsiderthe draft. General John Keane, who retired lastyear as the Army’s No. 2 officer, says the continuedsuccess of the all-volunteer military is not guaran-teed. “The volunteer force was the most significantmilitary event of the 20th century,” he told Time.“But it’s not preordained that it will always bethere or that it is always going to be successful.”Keane has told Congress that adding more than50,000 troops to the Army would require thinkingabout a return to the draft. “If you have world-wide military requirements that demand morepeople but you don’t have enough volunteers,”Keane says, “then you don’t have a choice.” ■

Questions

1. What is the “back-door draft”?2. How does Bush want to transform the military?

SPREAD THINTotal military personnel 2.6 million

Number of active-duty Army soldiers 500,000

Number of mobilized Reservists and National Guard serving in the Army 145,000Reservists and National Guard mobilized, by person-days per year, October 2000 12 millionReservists and National Guard mobilized, by person-days per year, January 2004 63 million

Number of total Army forces deployed overseas, January 2000 203,000Number of total Army forces deployed overseas, October 2004 500,000

U.S. troops in Iraq, January 2004 122,000U.S. troops in Iraq, October 2004 137,000

Percentage of troops in Iraq who belong to the Reserves or National Guard 43


By BILL POWELL

The long-awaited assault on fallujahwas officially dubbed Operation Dawn, tosignify the promise of a new beginning.But the name the U.S. military had origi-nally given the operation—Phantom Fury—

seems more appropriate for the kindof war U.S. forces are fighting. At timesthe soldiers and Marines trawling Fal-lujah’s alleyways feel as though theyare chasing ghosts. Insurgents vanishas the armored columns rumble intotown, only to reappear somewhereelse, firing from minarets and hidingin houses booby-trapped to blow up.U.S. and Iraqi officials say that theirforces have killed as many as 1,000enemy fighters and that most of theravaged city is under U.S. control. If the goal, as asenior U.S. official says, is to “break up the scor-pion’s nest’’ that Fallujah has become, the militaryis willing to inflict as much punishment as neededto achieve it.

But after a week that witnessed the most brutalup-close combat conducted by the U.S. militarysince Somalia, victory over the insurgency in Iraqisn’t necessarily any closer. Many fighters and themajority of the rebel leadership—including AbuMousab al-Zarqawi, the most wanted terrorist inIraq—apparently slipped out of the city in theweeks leading up to the assault. A Pentagon offi-cial says that at most, 10% of the enemy in Iraq hasbeen killed or captured in Fallujah. As the U.S.fights there, violence is rippling across the centerand north of Iraq, engulfing the increasingly restivecity of Mosul, the third largest in the country.

The violence has raised the prospect that thesiege of Fallujah could be a prelude to a series ofnasty urban street fights—precisely the sort of war

the U.S. military had desperately hoped to avoidwhen the invasion started in the spring of 2003.

U.S. commanders acknowledge that Fallujah isonly the beginning. But they hope that the show offorce there is the first step toward gradually erod-ing the insurgents’ ability to coordinate activitiesaround the country. Senior U.S. officials say the

coming months will be like playing adeadly game of “whack a mole” acrossthe country: attacking insurgentswherever they rise up and trying totake back enough rebel-held areas tohold credible elections in January.The U.S. does not have enough sol-diers in Iraq to crush a growing in-surgency in multiple locations at thesame time. But officials believe theywon’t actually face that challenge. Asmessy as the Sunni triangle and Mosul

now appear, so long as the insurgency doesn’t ignitea nationwide conflagration, the Pentagon believesit can contain the threat. “What we’re trying to doin the short term, through the elections, is makesure that there are no no-go zones,” says a seniorWestern diplomat in Baghdad. “To the extentpossible, we [will weaken] their capability tolaunch violent attacks.”

Critical to that plan is making sure Fallujahstays secure once the insurgents are routed. Towardthat end, the Pentagon says money will start to flowinto the city as soon as the military operation isover. The Pentagon says it has some $100 millionready to pour into a variety of civil works in Fallu-jah, including improvements in water, sewageand electrical systems as well as the constructionof schools and health clinics. Army Lieut. GeneralThomas Metz, U.S. ground-forces commander inIraq, says it will take “weeks, maybe months, to getthe city to a normal operating level.”

Once Fallujah is pacified, the U.S. plans to rely

War by Fits and StartsWhy Fallujah will not be the last bloody battle in the race to pacify insurgency-torn Iraq in time for its upcoming elections

I R A Q

on the newly trained Iraqi police and nationalguard forces to perform the bulk of security tasksrequired to begin the delivery of reconstruction aid.

That transition won’t be easy. Among ordinarycitizens, there is almost no confidence that theIraqis will be up to the task, and they are almostcertain to face fresh attacks. “Let the Americansthink they are winning,” a fighter in Fallujah toldTime. “We are not going anywhere.”

The whack-a-mole strategy may already begetting its first test in Mosul. The city is home to aheterogenous population of 1 million—Sunni, Kurdand Turkoman—and for months after the invasionwas viewed as one of the occupation’s few successstories. But locals warn that the city is slipping outof control. Foreign terrorists streaming across theborder from Syria have joined forces with a Baathistresistance stocked with unemployed ex-soldiers.Insurgent attacks have grown significantly innumber and lethality in recent months, and atleast two or three assassination victims arrive eachday at al-Salaam Hospital, the city’s largest. Afterinsurgents staged recent attacks against six policestations in the city, a unit involved in the U.S. assaulton Fallujah had to peel off and head to Mosul tohelp put down the unrest there. Local politicalleaders fear that the violence may make it impos-sible to organize elections in Mosul by January.

The risk for the U.S. is that, rather than make theSunni triangle secure for democracy, the assault onFallujah may instead inflame Sunnis and scatterinsurgents across a wider area, which could scuttle

hopes of broad Sunni participation in the voting.The Iraqi Islamic Party, the largest Sunni politicalparty in Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s interim gov-ernment withdrew in mid-November, saying itcould not abide the attack on Fallujah. Meanwhile,the influential Association of Muslim Scholars, aSunni group, has called for a total boycott of theelections. The association’s leader, Harith al-Dhari,told Time he was “very close to calling for jihad”against the Americans and the Allawi government.

Yet even after the violence and inflammatoryrhetoric of recent days, not all Iraqis are convincedthe Sunnis will sit out the vote.

Sunni leaders are acutely aware that the majorityShi‘ites—who make up 60% of Iraq’s population—seem united in their desire for elections. Opti-mistic U.S. and Iraqi officials believe that as elec-tions draw near, at least some Sunni leaders willrecognize their interest in having a say in Iraq’s firstelected government. As Sarmad Mohammad, aSunni fruit vendor in Baghdad, says, “If there areno Sunni leaders in the new government, all thejobs in the government, police and army will go toShi’as and Kurds.”

However tumultuous the January electionsprove to be, it’s clear that the ultimate outcome inIraq—whether it moves toward a semblance of sta-bility or civil war—comes down to a test of wills.The U.S. command believes that the supply ofsuicidal Baathists, Islamic holy warriors and Iraqinationalists will eventually exhaust itself.

Robert Scales, a retired Army major general,says history teaches that violent attacks on insur-gencies such as the campaign mounted by theU.S. in Fallujah can work. “You don’t just keepgrowing insurgents,” Scales says. “By effectivelyeliminating the hard-core terrorists, the fellowtravelers see the handwriting on the wall. Whilethe insurgency doesn’t disappear, it tends to col-lapse to something down around noise level.” Butif Fallujah is a sign of things to come, the volumeis likely to get cranked up first. ■

Questions

1. What is the goal of Operation Dawn?2. What is the principal risk for the U.S. in theFallujah campaign?


I R A Q

TURKEY

JORDAN

KUWAIT

SYRIA

IRAQSAUDI ARABIA

IRAN

PersianGulf

Basra

Mosul

BaghdadFallujah

Ramadi

Tikrit

Sunni Triangle

The Great Sunni HopeIraq’s interim President could win big in January’s election—if he gets out his voters

By APARISIM GHOSH/BAGHDAD

Few world leaders entered office withas little fanfare as Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer.When he became the interim President of

Iraq in June, al-Yawer was viewed by the U.S. andIraqi politicos who installed him as a newcomerwho would stay in the background while they ranthe country. Having spent 20 yearsaway from Iraq, as a student atGeorgetown University and atelecommunications executivein Saudi Arabia, he was a strangerto his countrymen. Before hisappointment, a poll asked Iraqis to rank 17 polit-ical figures in order of popularity. Al-Yawer camein dead last.

But as the interim government’s highest-rankingSunni and a sheik of Iraq’s most powerful tribe,al-Yawer has become a key U.S. ally. Chronic vio-lence in Sunni-dominated areas has raised doubtsabout whether significant numbers of Sunnis, whomake up 20% of Iraq’s population but have ruledthe country for more than 80 years, will participatein national elections scheduled for January 30. InNovember a group of political parties called for theelections to be delayed six months, saying that a lowSunni turnout would compromise the vote. TheWhite House, though, insists it will stick to itstimetable; President Bush declared that the U.S.was “very firm” on the January 30 date. To bolstersecurity, the number of U.S. troops will increase by12,000, to 150,000—the most since the invasion.

The U.S. is counting on al-Yawer to get out theSunni vote. While most of the prominent Sunniparties are threatening to boycott, al-Yawer toldreporters that he opposed a delay in the vote. In aninterview with Time, al-Yawer reiterated his belief

that elections are crucial to subduing the insur-gency. “We’re anxious to have the election on time,”he says. “We’re not comfortable with the label‘appointed government,’ and we want to have thelegitimacy that an election will bring.”

Al-Yawer himself stands to gain from the election.Having spent months building a base that includesboth Sunnis and Shi‘ites, al-Yawer and his party arelikely to emerge in a powerful position. Manyobservers believe al-Yawer has the potential tobecome what the new Iraq sorely lacks: a moder-ate Sunni leader who can unite disgruntled Sunniswithout alienating the majority Shi‘ites. “He’s thegreat white hope of the Sunnis,” says Juan Cole, anIraq expert at the University of Michigan.

There was little potential on view when al-Yawerassumed the presidency. He was a last-minute

compromise candidate; as a mem-ber of the Shammar tribe, whichincludes Shi‘ites and Sunnis, hewas acceptable to both. In the firstmonths of his tenure, al-Yawer wasrarely seen or heard in Baghdad,

overshadowed by Iyad Allawi, the tough-talkingPrime Minister. Some criticized al-Yawer for spend-ing too much time in other Arab capitals. But thoseweren’t pleasure trips. Says a diplomat in Baghdad:“If you asked the leaders of neighboring countrieswho they’d be most comfortable doing businesswith in Iraq, they would all point to al-Yawer.”

Unlike Allawi, al-Yawer has at times been criti-cal of the U.S., questioning, for example, the strat-egy of using massive force to bring the insurgencyto heel in cities like Samarra and Fallujah. “Sincethe attack on Fallujah,” he told Time, “violencehas escalated everywhere, even in Mosul, wherethings were quite calm before.” Even the radicalAssociation of Muslim Scholars, which is calling fora boycott of the election, offers guarded praise.Al-Yawer, says association spokesman Abdul-Salamal-Qubaisi, “is saying the right things, but we haveto see if he takes the right actions.” ■

Questions

1. Who is Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer?2. What is al-Yawer’s position on postponing Iraq’supcoming election?

18 time, december 13, 2004

I R A Q

“We want to have the legitimacy that an election

will bring.”—Ghazi Mashal Ajil al-Yawer

By PAUL QUINN-JUDGE/MOSCOW

and YURI ZARAKHOVICH/KIEV

It was both a symbol and a symptom ofthe revolution that rippled across Ukraine. Asthe presenter of state-controlled ut-1’s mainmorning news program was updating viewerson the Central Electoral Commission’s decision

to declare Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych thewinner of the country’s November 21 presidentialvote, Natalya Dmitruk, the woman who translatesbroadcasts into sign language, decided to send avery different message. “When the presenterstarted to read the news,” Dmitruk tells Time, “Isaid, ‘I address all deaf viewers. Yushchenko is ourPresident. Do not believe the Electoral Commis-sion. They are lying.’”

Independent Ukraine’s fourth presidential elec-tion since the collapse of the Soviet Union wassupposed to reach a conclusion in the November 21runoff. The Electoral Commission said prelimi-nary tallies showed Moscow’s favored candidate,Yanukovych, ahead by 3 percentage points. Butimmediately there were widespread accusations byUkrainian and foreign monitors of massive fraud—including voter intimidation, physical assaults andthe torching of ballot boxes. Yet the state-con-trolled media, which had backed Yanukovychthrough the five-month campaign, were reportingno major violations. Convinced that the electionwas being stolen from the rightful victor, sup-porters of Western-leaningopposition leader ViktorYushchenko poured intoKiev’s IndependenceSquare to demand thattheir man be recognized asthe winner. City residentsmixed with swarms of pro-testers from across thecountry, all wearing some-

thing orange, the color of Yushchenko’s OurUkraine party. Despite heavy snow and freezingtemperatures, the crowd was in a festive mood,eager to embrace Yushchenko’s orange revolutionagainst the country’s Moscow-backed old guard.When a mob of students took over part of thenearby Ministry of Education building, staff mem-bers served them tea and cookies.

Yushchenko, his face disfigured by what heclaims was an attempt by government authoritiesto poison him with dioxin, urged people not toleave the square until the commission’s ruling wasoverturned. “We appeal to citizens of Ukraine tosupport the national resistance movement,” hetold the cheering throng. “We should not leavethis square until we secure victory.” And his sup-porters did just that. After six days of nonstoppeaceful protests, the state and its candidate wereforced to back down. In a nonbinding vote, Par-liament declared the results invalid. Days later,Ukraine’s Supreme Court voided the election andordered a repeat of the runoff on December 26.

In a race that was fought largely over whetherUkraine would pursue Western-style reforms andcloser ties to Europe or stick with state controland a tight relationship with Russia, coming that farwas a remarkable achievement for Yushchenko.But even if he does ultimately prevail at the ballotbox, that doesn’t mean that the crisis is over. Ratherlike red-state–blue-state America, Ukraine remainsa divided and distrustful nation, with the Russian-

speaking, industrializedeastern part of the countrybacking Yanukovych andthe more nationalistic, agri-cultural west wantingYushchenko. The twocamps are as polarized asthe reporting on ut-1’smorning news broadcast.

While Yushchenko’s

The Orange Revolution Why the U.S. and Russia care so much about Ukraine’s disputed election

U K R A I N E

time, december 6, 2004 19

Kiev

UKRAINEUKRAINE

Black Sea

Sea of Azov

MOLDOVA

BELARUS

ROMANIA

RUSSIAPOLAND

voters celebrated in Kiev and the West, a wave ofrallies rolled through Yanukovych strongholds in theeast to protest what people there saw as a stolenelection. Political leaders, defiant of Kiev’s authority, angrily rejected the decision to hold another poll and called for the creation of a new autonomous region. Some even threatened to joineastern Ukraine with Russia.The electoral impasse couldcrack the country along theacute cultural and politicalrifts that divide it. “We aredealing with a deep split in thecountry,” says Andrzej Zalucki,Deputy Minister of ForeignAffairs for Poland, which shares with Ukraine aborder that stretches more than 250 miles. “It’sworse than just a political partition. It’s ethnicand nationalistic.”

There’s also the risk that a wayward Ukrainecould damage relations between Moscow andthe West. During the campaign, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin made no secret of which side hewas on: he visited Ukraine twice to broadcast hissupport for Yanukovych. Political consultants andmedia specialists close to the Kremlin played amajor role in shaping the strategy of theYanukovych campaign, and, according to special-ists, Russia pumped millions of dollars into hiselection bid. Putin was the first world leader tocongratulate the Prime Minister on his victory, afull two days before the Electoral Commissiondeclared him President-elect.

Sources well briefed on Kremlin affairs tell Timethat as protests in Kiev gathered momentum, Putinurged discredited outgoing President LeonidKuchma—eager to secure a safe retirement amidcharges of corruption and political violence—todeclare Yanukovych the winner. The sources sayPutin made it clear that a Yushchenko victorywould not be acceptable.

Yanukovych, 54, has made no secret of his pro-Moscow leanings. Just as important, Ukraine’sbusiness and political elites have flourished in oneof the world’s most corrupt economies, and theytrust that he won’t rock the boat. If Yanukovychseems a throwback to the Soviet era, Yushchenko,

50, wants to bring Ukraine into the free-marketage. In opposition, he turned Our Ukraine into apowerful bloc that’s threatening to undo the currentruling clan’s lock on power.

Almost before the final votes were tallied, in-ternational election monitors raised allegations ofwidespread fraud. According to the Organization for

Security and Co-operation inEurope (osce), which sent inobservers to watch the ballot-ing, there were “highly suspi-cious and unrealistic” turnoutsin key Yanukovych areas.Monitors recorded reports ofharassment, intimidation and

multiple voting and noted that the list of eligiblevoters mysteriously grew 5% on Election Day.Senator Richard Lugar, who represented the U.S.at the vote, was scathing in his assessment: “A con-certed and forceful program of Election Day fraudand abuse was enacted with either the leader-ship or cooperation of governmental authorities.”

However the disputed election finally playsout, it has undermined the Bush Administration’scozy relations with Putin, at least behind thescenes. In his first term, George W. Bush waswilling to give Putin a free hand in what Russiacalls the near abroad, the states that spun offfrom the broken Soviet Union. At the same time,Bush has made encouraging democracy aroundthe world a central pillar of his presidency. InUkraine those two policies clash mightily.

Secretary of State Colin Powell made clearWashington’s support for Yushchenko, sayingthe U.S. was “deeply disturbed by the extensiveand credible reports of fraud.” The next day, at aEuropean Union–Russia summit, Putin empha-sized that the dispute should be settled withoutoutside interference. No other country, he warned,has a “moral right to push a major Europeanstate to mass disorder.” ■

Questions

1. Why and how did Yushchenko supporters chal-lenge the election results?2. How has the election dispute affected relationsbetween the U.S. and Russia?

U K R A I N E


Convinced that the election wasbeing stolen, Yushchenko

supporters poured into Kiev’s Independence Square to

challenge the official outcome.

Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures 21

Name Date ✍WORKSHEET

DemocracyIn UkraineA G A L L E R Y O F V I E W S

On November 21, 2004, voters inUkraine went to the polls and casttheir ballots for President. Soonafter the results were announced,observers and citizens chargedthat there had been widespreadelection fraud. In response to thisdispute, which is described in TheOrange Revolution on page 19,commentators offered a variety of perspectives. Study the threecartoons at left. Then answer thequestions below.

1. Describe the action taking placein each image. What figures areshown? What symbols do you see?

2. How does the creator of the topcartoon depict democracy? Whatis the significance of making thedemocracy figure blue?

3. Study the middle cartoon. Whatcomment is the cartoonist makingon the relationship between Russia and Ukraine? What detailsconvey this message?

4. To what aspect of the disputedelection does the bottom cartoonrefer? How does this cartoon symbolize democracy?

5. Of the three images, which doyou consider the most optimisticabout the future of Ukraine? Why?

6. Following Up. Using library re-sources or the Internet, conductresearch to learn more about therepeat election and other recentdevelopments in Ukraine. Writeup your findings in two or threeparagraphs that could be added tothe Time article.

22 time, october 4, 2004

By SIMON ROBINSON

The first sound zahara abdulkarimheard when she woke that last morning inher village was the drone of warplanescircling overhead. Then came gunshotsand screams and the sickening crash of

bombs ripping through her neighbors’ mud-and-thatch huts, gouging craters into the dry earth.When Abdulkarim, 25, ran outside,she was confronted by two men inmilitary uniform, one wielding aknife, the other a whip.

Two of the intruders, she says,grabbed her and forced her to theground. With her husband’s body afew yards away, the men took turnsassaulting her. They called her a dogand a donkey. “This year, there’s noGod except us,” Abdulkarim says theytold her. “We are your god now.”When they were finished, one of the men drew hisknife and slashed deep across Abdulkarim’s leftthigh, a few inches above her knee. The scar wouldmark her as a slave, they told her, or brand her likeone of their camels.

Darfur is full of stories like Abdulkarim’s. Aidworkers and human-rights researchers say theviolence that has convulsed western Sudan sinceFebruary 2003, and the ensuing hunger and dis-ease, has killed up to 50,000 people and forcedsome 1.4 million from their homes. Human-rightsgroups estimate that thousands more are displacedevery week. The vast majority of the atrocities havebeen carried out by members of the Janjaweed, anethnically Arab militia of horse-mounted banditswho receive financial and military support fromthe Sudanese government, which commissionedthem to put down an insurgency by the region’snon-Arab Muslims.

The United Nations says the pogrom has cre-ated the worst humanitarian disaster in the worldtoday. The World Health Organization this summerfound that the death rate in Darfur was three timesthe emergency threshold, with hundreds dying ofdisease every day and tens of thousands likely todie by the end of the year. But professions of out-rage have done nothing to stop the killing. Imme-diately after labeling the Janjaweed’s slaughter

genocide, U.S. Secretary of StateColin Powell told lawmakers, “Nonew action is dictated by this deter-mination”—despite the fact that theinternational Genocide Convention,signed by the U.S. and 134 othercountries, obligates signatories to“prevent and to punish” genocidewhere it is occurring.

The rest of the world, meanwhile,seems inclined to do even less. De-spite the Sudanese government’s

unwillingness to rein in the Janjaweed, the BushAdministration has so far failed to persuade theU.N. Security Council to impose sanctions on Khar-toum. After 18 months of atrocities in Sudan, theinternational community has yet to take a singlepunitive action against the Sudanese government.

The conflict in Darfur is literally rooted in thesoil. Most of the region’s 6 million people arefarmers and herders, who cling to the valleyswhere the soil is less sandy, or nomadic graziers,who migrate between the arid north and thesouth, which blooms green after the August rains.Though most of Darfur’s farmers are African and itsnomads Arab, the two groups have mixed easily.Centuries of intermarriage have blurred the mostobvious distinctions: nearly all Darfurians are black,Muslim and speak Arabic. Disputes between thetwo are traditionally settled using a complex net-work of tribal laws.

The Tragedy of SudanFifty thousand are dead, and more than 1 million have lost their homes.Time visits Darfur to report on the world’s worst humanitarian disaster

S U D A N

time, october 4, 2004 23

Over the past two decades, though, persistentdrought has forced the Arabs to move to morearable lands, straining relations with the Africans.In the late 1980s, competition for turf began toturn violent. Light arms poured into the regionfrom neighboring Chad and the Democratic Re-public of Congo, leading to occasional massacres.Hostilities simmered for more than a decade. Butthe spark for war came in April last year, when, fol-lowing two months of occasional raids on villages,African rebels from a group calling itself the SudanLiberation Army (sla) swept into the tumbledownairport in the town of al-Fashir, killed 75 Sudanesegovernment soldiers, shot up four military aircraftand kidnapped the air force chief, Major GeneralIbrahim Bushra. The rebel group claimed that theraid was a protest against both the government’sneglect of Darfur and an increasing Arab militancy.

In response, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashircalled on local tribes to crush the rebellion. Themost eager recruits were Arab nomads who saw anopportunity to grab land and livestock through astate-sanctioned military operation. Locals dubbedthe fighters Janjaweed, a name that has long beenused to describe the region’s bandits. By August2003 the Janjaweed had begun attacking not onlythe sla fighters but also Darfurian civilians, who it

said were aiding the insurgency. The conflict soondescended into ethnic cleansing, say human-rightsobservers, with the Janjaweed attacking peopleon the basis of ethnicity. Darfur’s largest Arab tribesrefused to take part in the fighting, and manyAfricans did not support the rebels. But the battlelines had been drawn: Arab against African.

What can be done to save Darfur? The BushAdministration’s current strategy is to “calibrate”the pressure on Sudan’s government, until it fullydisarms the Janjaweed. But human-rights obser-vers who have visited the region say that unlessthe world moves rapidly to impose economic andmilitary sanctions against Sudan, tens of thousandsmore could die in a matter of months, either at thehands of the Janjaweed or from starvation anddisease. Sudan has agreed to allow the AfricanUnion to increase the number of its soldiers andobservers in Darfur from 300 to 2,000. But thesoldiers’ mandate stops them from intervening inthe violence, and it would require 50 times asmany troops to keep the peace in an area so big. ■

Questions

1. What is the Janjaweed? 2. How has the international community respondedto the situation in Sudan?

S U D A N

VIOLENCE IN DARFURIn the Darfur region of Sudan, marauding Arab militiamen called the Janjaweed have destroyed villages, killed tens of thousands and displaced more than 1.4 million

D a r f u rD a r f u r

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DunqulahDestroyed village Damaged village Refugee camp

al-FashirTawila

Nyala

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Juba

al-Junaynah

Source: Department of StateTIME Map by Ed Gabel

200 miles200 km

50 miles50 km

Area of detail at left

By SCOTT MACLEOD and NAHID SIAMDOUST

Iran’s hard-liners are back. even with areform-minded President formally in charge,the stern mullahs’ persistent strength is visibleeverywhere. In late November the streetsaround the parliament building in Tehran’s

Baharestan district were fes-tooned with posters hailing theBasij Islamic militia, radical vol-unteers who serve as one of theregime’s most loyal protectionforces. Upstairs in his sixth-flooroffice, Hassan Kamran waswearing a white Basiji scarfaround his neck in solidaritywith the diehards, who are seen by many Iraniansas free-ranging thugs. He was ranting against theU.S., warning that if President George W. Bushdares to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, Tehranwill retaliate by striking Israel and U.S. ships in thePersian Gulf. “As Imam Khomeini taught us,” hesays, “we will respond to force with force.”

This is the voice of militant Iran, where Islamicconservatives have made a thundering return topolitical office this year just as their country’snuclear ambitions have sparked growing alarm inthe West. Yet despite Kamran’s bluster, Iran’s gov-ernment has remained willing to negotiate in thestandoff over its nuclear program. The U.S. hascharged that what Iran claims to be a peacefulpursuit of nuclear energy is likely part of a rogueregime’s covert effort to get its own nuclearweapons. After months of negotiating with Eu-ropean Union officials, Iran agreed to suspendthe uranium-enrichment program that is at theheart of the accusations. Ten days later, however,Tehran put the deal in jeopardy by demanding anexemption for research involving a small numberof centrifuges that are central to making bomb-grade fuel. As of early December weary negotiators

were still dickering over a compromise intendedto salvage the hard-won agreement. The fits andstarts gave ammunition to Bush Administrationofficials who are ready to send Iran’s case to theUnited Nations Security Council for possiblesanctions. If the deal is to be saved, someone willhave to back down.

The mullahs publicly denyon moral grounds that Iranplans to enter the nuclear club.The Supreme Leader has saidIslam forbids all weapons ofmass destruction because theykill innocent civilians. But theon-again, off-again dealmakingcauses Western diplomats to

wonder whether the resurgent mullahs are court-ing confrontation with a U.S. Administration thathas already sent troops into Afghanistan and Iraq,Iran’s immediate neighbors to the east and west.

In Tehran defiance is certainly back in the airnow that conservatives have wrested control of the290-seat Majlis from reformers in elections thatwere widely condemned at home and abroad asrigged. Supporters of the ruling mullahs seempoised to take back the presidency in the spring of2005. The up-and-coming pragmatic conserva-tives, who negotiated the nuclear deal and agreewith reformers that Iran should cooperate with theoutside world, have been accused of treacheryby hard-liners, who control militant organiza-tions like the Basij, the Revolutionary Guards,the Shari’a judicial system and a number of Is-lamic charities.

Many Iranian citizens, like U.S. officials, assumethe mullahs are seeking A-bombs. The publicdebate has not been about whether Iran shouldhave nuclear technology but about how to resistinternational pressure to bar it. Iranians believethe clerics have plenty of legitimate reasons towant atomic weapons: they feel threatened by

Iran, Still DefiantHow Tehran views the nuclear standoff with the West

I R A N


Islamic conservatives havemade a thundering return topolitical office this year just

as their country’s nuclear ambitions have sparked

growing alarm in the West.


the U.S.; Iran is encircled by nuclear powers likeIsrael, Russia, Pakistan and India; and the nationwas victimized by Saddam Hussein’s chemicalattacks in the war with Iraq in the 1980s. Othersare worried that it could lead to North Korea-style isolation and impoverishment.

In private, hard-liners are high-fiving oneanother because of what they consider decliningodds that the second-term Bush Administrationwill pursue regimechange in Tehran. Ob-serving U.S. difficultiesin taming the Iraqis,Iranian leaders are farless worried than theywere two years agothat U.S. forces mightmotor on towardTehran. In any case,Tehran officials say,Iran’s substantial tradeties with Russia andChina probably ensure aSecurity Council veto ifthe United States pursuesU.N. sanctions.

Tehran’s pragmaticconservatives seem wellaware that tensions with the West could risesharply if dialogue collapses. Stopping short ofdeclaring Iran in formal breach of the NuclearNonproliferation Treaty (npt), which requiresstrict international supervision, the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (iaea) has issued scathingcriticisms of Iran’s past failures to inform it of sus-picious facilities, activities and materials and itschronic foot dragging on cooperation. Europeannegotiators remain skeptical that Iran will stick toits word.

For the mullahs, brinkmanship carries risks. Anaggressive posture on nuclear issues runs counterto Iran’s otherwise cautious foreign policy andcould further undermine the regime’s interna-tional legitimacy. Given the depth of their unpop-ularity at home, especially among young Iranianswho want real democracy and better ties to the

West, the clerics might not be able to count onthe populace to rally around the flag if their recklessactions trigger a serious confrontation with the U.S.

The pragmatic conservatives will probably try tokeep the nuclear dialogue alive. However, just likeIran’s fading reformers, they will be vigorouslyopposed by the regime’s powerful mullahs if theyshow signs of moderation. That’s what happened to

Mohammed Ali Abtahi,a reformist cleric who, in frustration over theright-wing takeover of parliament, resigned amonth ago as Iran’s Vice President. “They kickedus out of the political field, arguing that we weresoft and weak,” he told Time. “They do not wantto lose the backing of the minority of Iranianswho still support them.” As long as the mullahsprevail, so may Iran’s quarter-century-old con-frontation with the West, only now with nuclearweapons in play. ■

Questions

1. What is the basis for the standoff between Iranand the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear program?2. Why do hard-liners in Iran believe that it is in-creasingly unlikely that the Bush Administrationwill pursue regime change in Iran?

I R A N

TURKMENISTAN

PAKISTAN

IRAQ

KUWAIT

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AFGHANISTAN

150 miles150 km

PersianGulf

CaspianSea

Tehran

Neka

Natanz

Saghand Tabas

YazdIsfahan

Arak

Darkhovin

Bushehr

Fasa

Chalus

Mo‘allemKalaych

Karaj

BonabTabriz

ISFAHAN Several mini research reactors, including a future uranium- conversion facility

ARAK A heavy-water reactor, under construction, for reprocessing plutonium

BUSHEHR Two Russian-built light-water reactors; one will be restarted in two years

Iran’sNuclear-RelatedFacilities

NATANZ A pilot nuclear- enrichment facility, including the centrifuges in dispute

The Eternal AgitatorHe shook the world by demanding justice for the Palestinians. But Arafat’s defiance ruined his chances to win them independence

By LISA BEYER

Yasser arafat loved the cartoon TOM AND

Jerry, he said, because the mouse, not the cat,always won. All his life, Arafat was the little guy

of the Middle East, scampering feverishly to avoidone lethal trap or another. While he never quite pre-vailed over any of the region’s heavies, he did havethe indestructible quality of an animated figure. Orso it seemed until November 11, when Arafat, 75,died of an undisclosed cause at a French hospital.

His death, though well anticipated, was never-theless difficult for many Palestinians to absorb, notleast because he had cultivated anaura of immortality by rejectingearthly comforts. When he wed,in old age, the marriage seemedlike a sideshow, fatherhood an evenstranger subplot. “No personalquestions,” he used to tell reporters, as if anycreaturely detail would detract from the power ofhis cause. Even those closest to Arafat experiencedhim as a mystery, which was how he liked it.

Who was Arafat then? A terrorist? Certainlyin the early years and arguably again toward theend. A freedom fighter? Undoubtedly. He loftedthe cause of a small, disenfranchised and basicallypowerless people to the top of the world’s agenda.A peacemaker? Many Israelis say that was just anact, but if it was, it was a convincing one, at leastfor a time. In the end, though, Arafat, for all hiscalculated obfuscations, proved all too human.

For the last two years of his life, he confinedhimself to a few rooms within his bombed-outheadquarters in the West Bank city of Ramallah.Israeli forces periodically besieged the place aspunishment for his refusal to rein in suicidebombers who were terrorizing Israel. Having lev-eled the installations of Arafat’s security forcesand parked soldiers at the gates of Palestiniancities, the Israelis had greatly compromised

Arafat’s ability to govern. Both the Israeli andU.S. governments refused to deal with him, and bythe end, even European diplomats, Arafat’s lastchampions, had stopped calling on his compound.

In some ways, it was Arafat’s choice to close hisstory as he did. At the Camp David peace talksbrokered by President Bill Clinton in 2000, nego-tiators for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak,who was determined to make a final deal endingthe Israeli-Palestinian conflict for good, put forwardcompromises more generous than any Israeli leaderhad offered before. But rather than consider themor offer counterproposals, Arafat threw up a stonewall of rejection, prompting Clinton to publiclyblame him for the failure of the summit. Twomonths later, when Palestinian riots in Jerusalemexpanded into a new uprising against Israel, Arafatembraced the ferment, choosing not to use hisforces to constrain Palestinian militants, as he had

during the previous years of self-rule. The resulting intifadeh hasleft almost 3,000 Palestinians andmore than 1,000 Israelis dead andmade the possibility of peacefulcoexistence seem remote.

Still, Arafat continued to commit himself, atleast verbally, to peace. But Arafat couldn’t makethe final leap of faith. To reach an agreementwith Israel on a Palestinian state, Arafat knew,would require deep compromises on what havebecome almost sacred demands among his people:that traditionally Arab East Jerusalem, includingIslamic holy sites in the Old City, become part ofPalestine and that Palestinian refugees of the 1948war that followed Israel’s creation be allowed toreturn to their homes in what is now Israel. At thetime of Camp David in 2000, Arafat’s “obsession,”an aide said, was that if he made those conces-sions, he would be remembered by his people as atraitor, perhaps even assassinated. Better to leavethe final accommodations to reality to a futureleader. Better to die a revolutionary. ■

Questions

1. How did Arafat respond to the peace proposaldeveloped at the Camp David talks in 2000? 2. What did an aide cite as Arafat’s “obsession”?


M I D D L E E A S T

Even those closest toArafat experienced him as a mystery, which was

how he liked it.

Basketball BrawlThe worst fight in nba history highlights the combustible mix of rabid spectators and strutting athletes. Is the game itself losing out?

By BILL SAPORITO

As brawls go, it was hardly the worst thatsport has to offer. In five minutes of mayhemthat was repeated thousands of times on tv,

Indiana Pacers forward Ron Artest was seen lead-ing a fast break into the stands at the Palace inAuburn Hills, Michigan. Artest was charging downa local lout, John Green, who hit him with a fullbeverage cup after Artest got into an on-courtscuffle with the Detroit Pistons’ Ben Wallace.Several teammates joined Artest, punching any-one they could reach. The referees ended theNovember 19 game with 45.9 seconds left, andthe Pacers were forced to exit through a shower ofpopcorn and venom from Detroit fans. Nine fanswere hurt, none seriously.

The riot in Detroit also set off a second battleacross the country, as everyone from sports-radioyakkers to families gathered for Thanksgivingdinner tried to assign blame for the rise of inci-vility in spectator sports—the athletes or the fans?

nba commissioner David Stern was outragedby his players. He suspended Artest for the rest ofthe season, costing him some $5.5 million in lostwages. The nba Players Association has appealedArtest’s suspension as unreasonable. Authoritiesare reviewing game and security tapes to determine

what charges may be filed against Pacers and fans,although it’s not likely that anything beyond amisdemeanor will result. Lawyers for injured fansare already putting on the full-court press.

But Stern wants the fight to set off a nationaldebate about what he calls the “social contract”between fans and players, which seems to havebeen voided. “Over the years, at all sportingevents, there’s developed a combination of things,”says Stern. “First, the professional heckler, whofeels empowered to spend the entire game direct-ing his attention to disturbing the other team atany decibel level, at any vocabulary. Then, anongoing permissiveness that runs the gamut fromcollege kids who don’t wear shirts and paint theirfaces and think that liberates them to say anything,to nba fans who use language that is not suitableto family occasions.”

Professor Ken Shropshire thinks change in theway fans relate to their teams is fueled by every-thing from tv coverage to video games. “Withthe realistic, violent sports video games and thepervasiveness of sports on television, there’s close-ness, and fans feel they’re actually part of this thingnow,” he says. “From a marketing aspect, all themajor sports convey that fans are right in the mid-dle. So they feel they should be part of the game.”

In some respects, the fans are just taking a cuefrom the players. Beating the opposition isn’t goodenough; in-your-face humiliation is preferable.Profane language among players on the court gotso pervasive that the nba had to make it a violation.In football, the nfl has started calling penaltiesagainst players for taunting and excessively cele-

brating after touchdowns. Still, it’s players likePhiladelphia receiver Terrell Owens—who tram-pled the Dallas Cowboys logo after a touch-down this fall—who get most of the attention.Their antics, after all, are replayed and rein-forced on espn and sports talk shows. ■

Questions

1. How did the nba respond to the Nov. 19brawl?2. What do you see as the main cause or causes of violent behavior among sports fans?Explain.


S P O R T S

The CafeteriaCrusaderThe Texas agriculture chief is making a stand against junk food. Can she win?

By CATHY BOOTH-THOMAS/AUSTIN

When schools opened in texas this fall,some favorites were missing from the cafe-teria menus: sodas and candy bars had been

banned for grade schoolers; chips and cookieswere mini-size. And that perennial favorite, theFrench fry, was given just one more year before ittoo will be banned. Howls of protest could beheard from Lubbock to Laredo. And not just fromstudents. Principals complained about being forcedto act as “nutrition police.” Teachers said theyneeded candy to reward students. Parents andkids traded schoolyard rumors about Twinkiesbeing confiscated from lunch boxes.Nearly everyone, addicted to therevenues that vending machinesbring in, yelled that there wouldn’tbe enough money for beloved activities like band camp and choir trips. Angrye-mails poured in to the woman who had imposedthe new rules—Texas agriculture commissionerSusan Combs.

At 6 feet 2 inches, Combs would stand out inany food fight, but the School Nutrition Associationhails her as a pioneer for her groundbreakingjunk-food ban, which takes on suppliers such asCoca-Cola and Frito-Lay that count on selling toschools to establish brand loyalty in kids. Like agrowing number of youngsters in the U.S., kids inTexas have been getting fatter. Over a third of allschool-age children in the state are overweightor obese, far worse than the national rate of 10% to15%. By 2040, the costs of treating those kidswhen they become obese adults is expected tohit $40 billion a year for Texas alone. But hardlyanybody seems willing to do much about the prob-lem. Cash-strapped school districts are reluctant

to give up their slice of the $104 million that out-side food vendors make in the state from the likesof super-size sodas and pizzas each year. AlthoughCalifornia was the first state to forbid soft-drinksales at elementary and junior high schools lastyear, bans on junk food in schools face oppositionacross the U.S. A bill by Iowa’s Senator TomHarkin, a Democrat, to let the Federal Govern-ment develop nutrition guidelines for vending-machine food was scuttled by both parties. Noother state has a food ban as strict as the one inTexas. Even Mom’s home-baked goodies, sold tobenefit the school art program or the prom, can’tbe eaten during school hours.

A fourth-generation Texas cattle rancher, Combsis given to straight talking and no-nonsense solu-tions. “The stats are so clear, the problem so dire,the financial problems so enormous, can we notaddress it?” she asks. Her detractors call her theFood Nazi behind her back—to which she repliesserenely, “I prefer czarina, not that they’ll under-stand the difference.” The sniping about lost rev-enues from pta bake sales and vending machines

just leaves her exasperated. “Arewe going to sell marijuana to buildgyms?” she asks, relishing the hy-perbole. “Well, the health-care con-sequences of this food are that bad.”

But even a lifelong Republican in a Republicanstate can do only so much. At first Combs couldn’tget the Texas legislature to limit vending-machinesales, but in 2003, working behind the sceneswith Governor Rick Perry, she got the federallyfunded breakfast and lunch programs transferredfrom the Texas education agency to the agriculturedepartment, giving her oversight of the outsidevendors. Last March she announced the newpolicy on junk food, to be implemented whenschool began in August. And while kids can stillbring whatever they want for lunch from home—“If you want to send deep-fat-fried Twinkies everyday, that’s your business,” says Combs—no sharingis allowed. ■

Questions

1. What are the details of Combs’ junk-food policy?2. By 2040 how much will Texas spend on obesity?


S C H O O L S

No other state has a food ban as strict as the

one in Texas.

The Sky’s The LimitWhy the amazing SpaceShipOne is Time’s Invention of the Year

By CHRIS TAYLOR

When the first american flew into space in 1961, BurtRutan was a 17-year-old col-

lege freshman. Listening to news ofAlan Shepard’s groundbreaking sub-orbital flight on the radio, Rutan waseuphoric. He too hoped to go intospace one day—and was disappointedthat a cautious nasa had allowed the Soviets tobeat the U.S. to the prize. “We could have had thefirst man in space,” Rutan recalls, “and we sent amonkey instead.”

The possibilities back then seemed limitless,and it was easy for Rutan’s generation to imaginethey would all get to taste zero-gravity one day. Itdidn’t work out that way. After nasa reached themoon in 1969, its focus shifted to unmannedprobes, orbital experiments and a costly low-orbitshuttle system. The imagined future of Everymanas astronaut evaporated. This year, more than fourdecades after Shepard’s flight, only two Americanshave made the jump into space from U.S. soil—bothlaunched not by nasa but by Rutan’s tiny company,known for build-your-own-airplane kits.

Rutan designed their craft, SpaceShipOne, avehicle as improbable as it is revolutionary. The sizeof a small biplane, SpaceShipOne is a shell ofwoven graphite glued onto a rocket motor thatruns on laughing gas and rubber. The nose is punc-tuated by portholes, like an ocean liner. Inside,the critical instrument is a Ping-Pong ball decoratedwith a smiley face and attached to the cabin with apiece of string, which goes slack when the pilotreaches the zero-gravity of suborbital space.

Despite its Flash Gordon looks and unorthodoxdesign, SpaceShipOne was more than able to match

Shepard’s trailblazing journey. In June it becamethe first privately funded spacecraft. In October itclinched the $10 million Ansari X Prize as the firstsuch craft to travel to space twice in two weeks.Thanks to the backing of two starry-eyed billion-aires, SpaceShipOne is set to become the first in anew line of space-tourism craft coming in 2007. “It’s

a spaceship that fits in your two-cargarage, and you can take it to spaceevery other day,” says X Prize founderPeter Diamandis. “That’s pretty cool.”

We agree. For solving the problemsof suborbital flight and re-entry withingenious design, for boldly goingwhere nasa now fears to tread andreturning without a scratch, but mostof all for reigniting the moon-shot-era dream of zero-gravity for every-one, SpaceShipOne is Time’s Coolest

Invention of 2004. Concerned that SpaceShipOne was destined

for nothing more than the National Air and SpaceMuseum, Rutan enlisted another aeronauticsenthusiast and billionaire, Virgin’s Richard Branson.Over dinner in Mojave, they sketched out a visionof suborbital and orbital space tourism over thenext 75 years. Branson was instantly won over. Heordered five larger versions of SpaceShipOne withseats for five passengers and a pilot.

Rutan knows that to sell tickets, he must makeflights “at least a hundred times” safer than spacetravel has been so far. After all, of the 430 humanswho have flown into space, 18 died there. “Youcan’t have an airline that kills 4% of its passengers,”says Rutan.

But prospective passengers don’t seem worried.Branson already has a waiting list of more than7,000 people who are willing to pay the $190,000price for a suborbital flight. “This isn’t just a pipedream,” says Branson. “We will get this to the pointwhere thousands of people can go into space.” ■

Questions

1. Why was SpaceShipOne selected as Time’sInvention of the Year for 2004?2. What issue does Burt Rutan plan to address inorder to sell tickets for future trips into space?


I N V E N T I O N O F T H E Y E A R


By MICHAEL D. LEMONICK

If global warming is real, experts havebeen saying for decades, then basic climatescience dictates that it should show up earliestand proceed most rapidly in the Arctic. Buteven the experts were stunned at the results of

a study released in November. After four years of in-tensive research by more than 250 scientists, aprestigious multinational body called the ArcticCouncil reported that the region has warmed twice

as fast as the rest of the globe over the past 50years. Arctic Ocean ice has shrunk by as much as20%, snow cover has diminished on land, and thepermafrost underlying the tundra has become lessstable. And it’s getting worse. By 2100, the reportpredicts, temperatures could rise further still, en-dangering indigenous Arctic ways of life, destabi-lizing roads that support mining and oil drilling, dis-rupting ecosystems, shrinking the ranges of manyanimals and threatening the very existence of somespecies, including the polar bear.

E N V I R O N M E N T

MELTDOWN!New research reveals that the Arctic is warming up even faster than scientists feared. That could spell extinction for the polar bear

1900

0

-1

1

2C

’20 ’40 ’60 ’80 2000

Yearly change from averageArctic temperature

0

-1.8

1.8

3.6F

Average

As Global Warming Melts Polar Ice ...Over the past three decades, sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has declined an average of 8% annually, exposing an area larger than Texas

and Arizona combined. The effect is most dramatic in summer, when ice levels drop as much as 20%

Temperatures in winter are rising faster than those in summer—as much as 5F to 7F in Alaska and western Canada

1979SEPTEMBER

Greenland

North America 2003SEPTEMBER

The Impact Will Be Felt in Many WaysCOASTAL AREASAs protective sea ice disappears and permafrost underlying the land’s surface softens,coastal erosion is expected to speed up dramatically. Floods will in-undate marshes and estuaries, causing extensive damage for humanhabitats as well as for animal environments.

ARCTIC POPULATIONSIndigenous people from Alaska to Canada to Siberia rely on fish, polar bears, seals and

caribou for food, clothing and trade. As warming imperils these animals, it also threatens a way of lifethat has been unchanged for centuries.

VEGETATIONRising temperatures will let forests expand north into areas that now support onlyscrubby flora. Loss of tundra will also rob many animals of breeding and feedinggrounds.

WILDLIFESeals rest and give birth on sea ice; polar bears use it to stalk seals. Loss of ice willthreaten both. On land, disruption of nesting areas could reduce populations ofsome migratory birds by as much as 50% by the year 2100.

But Is It All Bad?UNEXPECTED BENEFITS OF GLOBAL WARMINGSome species may actually benefit from global warming. Cod and arctic char, both commercially importantfish, could expand their range. Some crops, including barley and alfalfa, could be grown in areas that

are too cold today. π

Questions

1. What are the keyfindings of the newstudy conducted by theArctic Council?2. Between now and2100, how is sea levelexpected to change?What are the main rea-sons for this change?3. What possible bene-fits could emerge as aresult of a reduction inpolar ice?

Source: Arctic Climate ImpactAssessment


E N V I R O N M E N T

... Rising Sea Levels May Inundate Coastlines

Maps: Clifford Grabhorn

Sea level is expected to climb from4 in. to 3 ft. by 2100, mainly from expanded warmer water and melting glaciers

If the Greenland ice sheet melts, the effects of Arctic warming could be especially damaging in low-lying places like Florida

NorthwestPassage

Northernsea route

Ice extent2070-2090

Ice extentSeptember20022040-

2060

2010-2030

Miami

WestPalmBeach

Orlando

Tampa

FortMyers

Areassubject toinundation

with a 3.3 ft.sea-level

rise

Text by Kristina Dell

2000 ’20 ’40 ’60 ’80 2100

30 in.

20

10

0

40

60

80 cm

20

0

Projected globalsea level rise underdifferent emissionscenarios

NEW SEA ROUTES A drastic reduction in polar ice during summer months could open reliable shipping lanes along the northern coast of Russia and Canada, making transportation cheaper and increasing access to oil and other natural resources (admittedly a mixed blessing). But there might also be more icebergs, which could limit the effectiveness of Arctic shipping.

?NorthwestPassage

Northernsea route

Ice extent2070-2090

Ice extentSeptember20022040-

2060

2010-2030

Myers

32 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures

Name Date

Current Events In ReviewTest your knowledge of stories covered in the Current Events Update by answering thefollowing multiple-choice questions.

____ 1. The number of electoral votes needed towin the presidency is:a. 250 c. 270b. 260 d. 280

____ 2. The first state to ban soft-drink sales atelementary and junior high schools was:a. California c. Illinoisb. Texas d. North Carolina

____ 3. To replace Colin Powell as Secretary ofState, President Bush has nominated: a. Madeleine Albright c. Lynne Cheneyb. Condoleezza Rice d. Alberto Gonzales

____ 4. Which of the following has called forthe reinstatement of a military draft?a. George W. Bush c. Donald Rumsfeldb. John Kerry d. none of the above

____ 5. The worst brawl in nba history tookplace in:a. Chicago c. New Yorkb. Detroit d. Houston

____ 6. George W. Bush says the mainreason he won the 2004 election was:a. his promise of future tax cutsb. his concern for the environmentc. his ability to unite the nationd. his policies on Iraq and Afghanistan

____ 7. According to a new study, global warming in the Arctic could result in:a. extinction of the polar bearb. higher temperaturesc. a reduction in polar iced. all of the above

____ 8. As of 2005, the only African American in the U.S. Senate—and the third to serve in thepast 100 years—will be: a. Barack Obama c. Clarence Thomasb. John Lewis d. Carol Moseley Braun

____ 9. The authors of the 9/11 commission report singled out which of the following agencies for an overhaul?a. homeland security c. immigrationb. border patrol d. intelligence

____ 10. Inventor Burt Rutan hopes to makewhich of the following possible for Americans?a. cloning c. space travelb. living on Mars d. immortality

Match each of the locations below withthe description atright. Write the letterof the correct countryin the space provided.(Note: Not all answerswill be used.)A. ChadB. EgyptC. FranceD. India E. Iran F. Iraq G. RussiaH. South KoreaI. SudanJ. SyriaK. UkraineL. United States

____ 11. This nation’s Supreme Court ordered a new presidential election following allegations of widespread voting fraud.

____ 12. Site of the worst humanitarian disaster in the world today.

____ 13. Nation that is involved in a dispute with the United States over its nuclear program.

____ 14. Elections in this country are scheduled for January 30, but somegroups have called for a boycott.

____ 15. Country where Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat died at age 75.

____ 16. Arms from this nation poured into Sudan in the 1980s.

____ 17. Country from which the Bush Administration plans to remove troopsas part of a plan to transform the U.S. military.

____ 18. Nation whose President backed Viktor Yanukovych in Ukraine’s November 21 election.

____ 19. Militants from this country have joined members of the Iraqi insurgency.

____ 20. The Chief Justice of this nation’s Supreme Court announced in October that he has thyroid cancer.

✍WORKSHEET

Answers George W. Bush: American Revolutionary(pages 2–3)

1. Time’s editors selected Bush forsharpening the political debate inAmerica and for “gambling his fortunes—and ours—on his faith inthe power of leadership.”2. Bush views his decision to pushfor the transformation ofAfghanistan and then Iraq as theheart of not only his foreign policy,but also of his election victory.

In Victory’s Glow (page 4)

1. Bush won 286 electoral votes;Kerry won 251.2. Bush’s approval rating before theelection was 49%; anything below50% is supposed to signal defeat forthe incumbent. Further, the Iraqwar is costing far more than Bushsaid it would. And he faced an oppo-nent who was a decorated veteranand a distinguished public servant.

Four More Years (page 5)

1. According to the “legacy school,”Bush will change course on Iraq, address the budget deficit, expandhealthcare, and work with Demo-crats. The second school of thought,reflecting the views of neoconserva-tives, opposes bipartisanship anddiplomacy. According to this view,Bush will admit no mistakes on Iraq,confront Iran, pursue the privatiza-tion of Social Security, and simplifythe tax code.2. Problems Bush faces include alack of military resources to continuean expansive and unilateral foreignpolicy, a shortage of money for hisdomestic goals, hostility from Democrats, and anger among fiscally conservative Republicans.

Interpreting Maps and Graphs (page 8)

1. Six states: CA, TX, NY, FL, IL, PA.Of these, Bush won two: TX and FL.2.Twelve states: HI, AK, ID, MT,WY, ND, SD, DE, RI, VT, NH, ME(DC does not count because it is nota state). Of these, Kerry won six: HI,DE, RI, VT, NH, ME.3. 1.4 million4. Strong turnout in Philadelphia5. 72% 6. 76% 7. True 8. False 9. 27010. DC for Kerry; Utah for Bush11. WI for Kerry; OH for Bush12. If Kerry had won Ohio’s 20 electoral votes or Florida’s 27 elec-toral votes, his total electoral voteswould have exceeded 270 and hewould have won the election.

What Happens to the Losing Team? (page 9)

1. Democrats raised record sums of cash and persuaded an unprece-dented number of volunteers to support them in the 2004 election.2. Possible Democratic nomineesinclude Hillary Clinton, John Edwards and Howard Dean.

Obama’s Ascent (page 10)

1. Obama spent his childhood in

Hawaii; his father is from Kenya andhis mother is from Kansas. After college, he became a community organizer in Chicago and later attended Harvard Law School.2. His opponents in the primary andgeneral election both suffered fromdamaging allegations about theirpersonal lives. Then Republicansselected Alan Keyes, who did notlive in Illinois and who was viewedas highly conservative, to runagainst Obama.

Who Might Be Nominated? (page 11)

1. Chief Justice William Rehnquistis expected to retire soon.2. Possible nominees include J.Harvie Wilkinson III, J. MichaelLuttig, John Roberts, Theodore B.Olson and Janice Rogers Brown.

Condi Gets Her Shot (page 12)

1. Colin Powell2. Issues on which Rice haschanged her position include theU.S. relationship with Russia, theroad map to Middle East peace and the use of U.S. troops for nation-building.

Halting the Next 9/11 (page 13)

1. Commission members read 2.5 million documents, many ofthem classified, and interviewedmore than 1,200 people, including Presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton. 2. The authors single out U.S. intelligence agencies as in need ofan overhaul.

Does the U.S. Need a Draft? (pages 14–15)

1. “Back-door draft” is a term criticshave used for the “stop loss” ordersthat have barred thousands of soldiers at the end of their enlist-ment obligations from leaving themilitary if their units are bound for Iraq.2. The Bush Administration wants tomake the military a more mobile,lethal force. Plans include breakingthe Army into smaller, more power-ful units, taking forces out of areaslike Western Europe and SouthKorea, and transferring militarypolicing and other nation-buildingskills from the reserves to the active-duty force. In addition, contractorsare being hired to perform manynon-combat missions.

War by Fits and Starts (pages 16–17)

1. Operation Dawn is intended toput an end to the insurgency that isbased in Fallujah and to bring thecity under the coalition control.2. Instead of making the Sunni triangle secure for democracy, theassault on Fallujah may inflame Sunnis and scatter insurgents acrossa wider area, which could lead to reduced Sunni participation.

The Great Sunni Hope (page 18)

1. Al-Yawer is the interim Presidentof Iraq, the interim government’shighest-ranking Sunni and a sheikof Iraq’s most powerful tribe.

2. Al-Yawer says it is important tohold the election on January 30, asscheduled. He argues that the election will help minimize the insurgency by bringing legitimacyto Iraq’s government.

The Orange Revolution (pages 19–20)

1. Election monitors reported massive fraud, including voter intimidation, physical assaults andthe burning of ballot boxes. In response, supporters of Yushchenkoflocked to Kiev’s IndependenceSquare to demand that their candidate be recognized as therightful winner. 2. The dispute has damaged rela-tions between the Bush and PutinAdministrations. Bush had beenwilling to give Putin a free hand inthe states that were formerly part ofthe Soviet Union. But Bush alsowants to encourage democracy andtherefore opposes Putin’s support of Yanukovych.

Democracy In Ukraine (page 21)

1. In the top cartoon, a Russian general is smirking as he grasps theneck of a tiny figure representingdemocracy. The general’s strong gripis causing the democracy figure tosuffocate. The middle cartoon showsVladimir Putin at the helm of a trainthat represents Russia. A second car, labeled Ukraine, has become detached from the train, symbolizingUkraine’s effort to conduct an election free of Russia’s influence.The bottom cartoon shows bottleson a drugstore shelf. One bottle, labeled “Poison,” represents thetainted election; a second bottle, labeled “Democracy,” is the antidote.2. Democracy is shown as a frail fig-ure that is turning blue as a result ofsuffocation by the Russian general.3. The cartoonist suggests that therehas been a rift between Russian andUkraine. It is not clear whether therailroad car representing Russia isbacking up to clasp the Ukrainiancar, or whether the two cars will remain separate. The Putin figurelooks upset and angry.4. The bottom cartoon refers to the poisoning of Yushchenko. Fairelections and democracy are por-trayed as the antidote to the poison.5. Answers will vary but should besupported by evidence.

The Tragedy of Sudan (pages 22–23)

1. The Janjaweed is a militia group inSudan. Its members are Arabs whoget financial and military supportfrom the Sudanese government,which hired them to halt an insur-gency by non-Arab Muslims. 2. Secretary of State Colin Powellhas called the killing in Sudan“genocide,” but the internationalcommunity has taken no punitiveaction against the government of Sudan.

Iran, Still Defiant (pages 24–25)

1. The standoff is a result of competing claims about Iran’s

nuclear program. While Iran claimsits program is dedicated to peace-fully pursuing nuclear energy, theU.S. says that Iran is secretly tryingto acquire nuclear weapons.2. The hard-liners believe that thedifficulties the U.S. has faced in Iraqwill dissuade it from launching military action against Iran.

The Eternal Agitator (page 26)

1. Instead of considering the pro-posal or presenting an alternative,Arafat rejected the offer.2. An aide stated that Arafat was obsessed with the idea that if heagreed to the terms of the CampDavid peace talks, then Palestinianswould view him as a traitor.

Basketball Brawl (page 27)

1. The nba suspended Artest for therest of the season; several other players were prohibited from playing for shorter periods. nbaCommissioner David Stern alsocalled for a national debate on the“social contract” between playersand fans.2. Answers will vary but should besupported by evidence.

The Cafeteria Crusader (page 28)

1. Candy bars and sodas have beenbanned for grade schoolers; chipsand cookies are allowed only insmall portions; and French fries willbe prohibited as of next year.2. Texas is expected to spend $40billion a year to treat problemscaused by obesity.

The Sky’s the Limit (page 29)

1. Time selected SpaceShipOne asits Invention of the Year because ofthe ingenious way the craft tacklesproblems of suborbital flight, andbecause it reignited the dream ofspace exploration for ordinaryAmericans.2. Rutan has vowed to make spacetravel at least 100 times safer than ithas been in the past.

Meltdown! (pages 30–31)

1. The report concluded that overthe past 50 years, temperatures inthe Arctic have risen twice as fast asin the rest of the globe. In addition,snow cover has diminished on land,Arctic Ocean ice has shrunk, and thepermafrost has become less stable.2. Sea level is expected to rise from4 inches to 3 feet over this period, primarily as a result of melting glaciers and expanded warmerwater.3. Reduced quantities of polar icecould result in new shipping lanes inRussia and Canada; these would increase access to oil and maketransportation less costly. Globalwarming could also enable somespecies to expand their range.

Current Events In Review (page 32)

1. c 2. a 3. b 4. d 5. b 6. d 7. d 8. a 9. d 10. c 11. K 12. I 13. E 14. F 15. C16. A 17. H 18. G 19. J 20. L

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