GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asiaicrm.ntu.edu.sg/NewsnEvents/Doc/ICRM_Sym/Documents... ·...

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GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asia Marco Pagani on behalf of the GEM Hazard and Risk Teams [email protected] ICRM Symposium 2018 7 August 2018 - Singapore

Transcript of GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asiaicrm.ntu.edu.sg/NewsnEvents/Doc/ICRM_Sym/Documents... ·...

Page 1: GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asiaicrm.ntu.edu.sg/NewsnEvents/Doc/ICRM_Sym/Documents... · GEM’s Mosaic of Hazard Models A global collection of regional and national seismic

GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asia

Marco Pagani on behalf of the GEM Hazard and Risk Teams

[email protected]

ICRM Symposium 20187 August 2018 - Singapore

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GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asia

The GEM hazard model concept

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Strategies for building a global PSHA model

grid for the β parameter. Both grids correspond to the firstdepth range mentioned above.

5. Selected seismicity model

For the analysis, a modified version of the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was selected as a seismicity model forall seismogenetic sources; the activity of the ith seismicsource, in this case a node in any of the defined grids, isspecified in terms of the magnitude exceedance rates,λi(M), generated by each node. The magnitude exceedancerate defines how frequently earthquakes of different mag-nitudes are generated in each of the sources. In this case,

the seismicity is represented by the following equation [6]:

λðMÞ ¼ λ0e $ βM $ e $ βMU

e $ βM0 $ e $ βMUð1 Þ

where M0 is the threshold magnitude, and λ0 , βi, and MU

are parameters that define the exceedance rate for eachsource, as shown in Fig. 7 .

Parameter λ0 is the average annual number of events ineach node with magnitude equal or higher than thethreshold, β represents the slope of the initial part of thelogarithmic regression, and MU is the maximum expectedmagnitude at each node. The latter parameter is definedconsidering the tectonic environment, as explained in theprevious section. As a result of this, each node on thedifferent grids is characterized with three seismicity

Fig. 3. Tectonic regions defined for the analysis.

M.G. Ordaz et al. / International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 10 (2014) 419–427422

– One global hazard model developed by a single organisation

– A collection of regional/national models created by a large pool of organisations (à la GSHAP)

Ordaz et al. (2014)

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Some pros & cons of the mosaic approach

Pros

– Summarizes the most recent openly accessible national/regional models

– High local buy-in and community participation

– Best option for risk-assessment

– Best way to promote best practice and appraise state-of-the-art globally

Cons

– Models not (or partly) developed following a homogenous methodology

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Previous experiences

PROS• Outstanding technical and

scientific achievement • Involved a large community of

scientists from all over the world• Represented a significant

improvement of our knowledge on seismic hazard globally

CONS• Static (i.e. without updates)• Mostly a hazard map• Limited reproducibility

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GEM’s global hazard model concept

Basic datasets e.g. earthquake

catalogues, strong ground-motion

recordings

Tools for Hazard Model

Construction and Calculation

e.g. tools for the preparation of

earthquake occurrence models, the OpenQuake

engine

GEM’s Mosaic of Hazard ModelsA global collection of regional and national seismic hazard models

QA and testing Despite it is an actual research topic, is not yet integrated into the model building process

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GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asia

GEM’s mosaic of hazard models

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A multi-tier approach

Models developed in the context of partnerships, such as a regional or national programmes/projects, where

new hazard models are created within open, collaborative efforts

Tier 1

Hazard models from information publicly distributed through scientific journals or openly accessible from scientific organisations (e.g. from their websites)

Models created either by the GEM Secretariat and/or a partner organisation, without open

collaboration and joint ownership

Tier 2

Tier 3

In a decreasing order of preference:

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Models’ origin

National hazard model i.e. hazard models implemented by national agencies

Regional hazard modelsi.e. hazard models included in the mosaic and originally implemented using the OQ engine

Hazard models from publicationsModels implemented using information included in scientific papers

Internal hazard modelsModels implemented by the GEM Hazard Team

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Original models (and PSHA software)Imported hazard models i.e. hazard models implemented using a different PSHA code and translated into the OQ engine format

Indigenous hazard modelsi.e. hazard models included in the mosaic and originally implemented using the OQ engine

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Asia

Taiwan Earthquake Model [TEM15]The most recent version of the TEM model

Japan [JPN14]The 2014 version of the HERP national hazard model

Northern Eurasia [NEA13]A hazard model developed by the GEM Secretariat

Middle East [EMM16]A regional seismic hazard model developed by an international pool of scientists working in the EMME project

Central Asia [CEA15]A regional seismic hazard model developed by an international pool of scientists from GFZ and Central Asia

Arabian Peninsula [ARB17]This is a hazard model developed by scientists working at the Saudi Geological Survey

India [IND12]The hazard model proposed by Nathand Thingbaijam(2012)

Southeast Asia [SEA18]A collaborative model developed by various Asian institutions

Indonesia [IDS17]The most recent national hazard model for Indonesia developed by a pool of Indonesian institutions and GA

Philippines [PHI18]A new national hazard model created by scientists based at Phivolcs

CHINA [CHN15]The most recent national hazard model developed by CEA

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China: CEA National Hazard Model 2015

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Continental Southeast Asia

Chan et al. [2018]Area sources + shallow faults

Ornthammarath et al. [2018]Smoothed seismicity + shallow faults

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Indonesia National Hazard Model 2017

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GEM Global Hazard and Risk Model for Asia

Risk modelling

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China12 mapping schemes were produced (e.g. urban, semi-urban, rural subdivisions under Tier 1, 2, 3 and 4 counties) leading to 53 building classes.

9 Construction Classes, 8 Height Classes, 4 Ductility Classes

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China

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China

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Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to

www.globalquakemodel.org

Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/