From Gaia to SIM-Lite: Terrestrial planet detection with as astrometryMario G. Lattanzi (INAF-OATo) S. Casertano (STScI) A. Sozzetti (INAF-OATo)

The NASA/JPL-studied mission SIM-Lite

SIM-LiteThe astrometric assemblyFlight segment

The narrow angleobserving scenario with a target star at the center of the field of regard and reference stars within a circle of 1 degree radius. The baselineorientation on a subsequent visit would be orthogonal to that shown here.Capable of 0.2-1 as single measurement errors (with a noise floor

Basic Facts for extrasolar planet searchRVs = (Mp/Ms) RVp

The NASA-requested double-blind test exercise for Earths detection and characterization in multi-planet systemsFour teams: planetary system models (5 groups), data simulation (1 group), data analysis (4 groups: UC Berkeley, San Francisco State, Princeton, JPL, STScI/OATo), and synthesis (1 group)

RV + SIM Lite astrometry: RV data evenly distributed over 15 yrs, 1 m/sec single visit accuracy; astrometry - 5 years uniform coverage at 0.4 micro-arcsec accuracy per single visit.

Where are we coming from? The Gaia mission experienceLarge Double Blind Test campaign on more than 150,000 systems for detection and characterization of planets utilizing only astrometric observations from the ESA Gaia satellite (Casertano, Lattanzi, Sozzetti et al., AA, 2008). Different teams for systems simulation, fitting, and evaluation. Characterization targeting Jupiter-size first planets with periods just exceeding the mission operational time (6 yr compared to 5 yr). Multi-planets possible but difficult as precision & accuracy depend on mag (fixed observing time), uneven coverage geometry (scanning law), and/or color of parent star: best astrometry good to about 10 as, 10-20 times worse than SIM.Hold primary responsibility for planet detection and characterization in Gaias DPAC consortium pipeline. Earlier experience with SIM like data (Sozzetti et al, PASP, 2002 and 2003)

What did we set out to do?We want to understand if Earth-like planets (terrestrial mass and habitable-zone orbit) can be detected in multiple-planet systems, using SIM-Lite astrometry and ground-based RV observations. A simulation campaign in double-blind mode was designed to answer this question.

Period Search and Orbit Fitting ProcedureIterative process, first RVs, then Astrometry, then combined solutionIterative periodogram search (FAP < 0.01) on post-single-star fit residuals (astrometry only) and after successful removal of each component (P(F) < 0.01), T-I representation, global search on P,e,T ( ), L-M minimization, error estimates using full info from covariance matrix. Stop when calculated 2 20.99 [-> P(2 > 20.99 ) < 0.01], i.e. 1% significance level test.

Notes on available codeIDL RV + Astrometry combined implementation derived from Gaia astrometry-only code. Slow, no time for improvements given very tight schedule and available manpower.Iterations for multiple planets mostly manual. Needs more automatic tools.FAP fixed.

RV solution System 13 Batch 2

RV solution System 13 Batch 2

RV solution System 13 Batch 2

ASTRO solution System 13 Batch 2

ASTRO solution System 13 Batch 2

ASTRO solution System 13 Batch 2 ( X-axis periodogram)

ASTRO solution System 13 Batch 2 ( Y-axis periodogram)

Lessons Learned (1)Were not complete in the low S/N, high FAP regimeTypically systems are less resolved: higher 2 when high FAP components are missed, but also when all components are identified (-> need to get more used to multiple systems) Phase 1, all systemscompleteness = #detected / #detectable

Lessons Learned (2)Phase 2, batch 2(from McArthur)

Lessons learned (3)Failures modes

Part or entire sets of orbital parameters in astrometric solution of some difficult systems left unchanged when using standard adjustment procedure. (IDL Levenberg-Marquardt routine MRQMIN from Minpack. Behavior under investigation.)Improvements in resulting 2 when using findings from other C teams as starting values.

Conclusions (1/2)Tremendous gain in going from the 10 as, Gaia, to the 1 as, or better, regime (SIM) especially for the multi-planet systems.RVs essential in several cases (long periods)Work with higher FAPs (increase the probability of false alarms when set size given Take more chances!), but multiple & independent solver/fitting teams essential (confirmation of Gaias planets DBT experience)

Would SIM see terrestrial planets? From what we have seen we can say that an astrometric mission like SIM-Lite is our best bet at finding terrestrial planets within the next 10 years in the immediate solar neighborhood!Conclusions (2/2)