Fir Navigator Sept 2014
29
ΑΝΑΛΥΣΗ ΔΙΕΘΝΩΝ ΑΓΟΡΩΝ ΔΙΕΥΘΥΝΣΗ ΠΩΛΗΣΕΩΝ ΧΡΗΜΑΤΟΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΩΝ ΠΡΟΙΟΝΤΩΝ ΣΗΜΑΝΤΙΚΗ ΕΠΙΣΗΜΑΝΣΗ ΣΤΗ ΔΕΥΤΕΡΗ ΣΕΛΙΔΑ Forex & Interest Rates Navigator Σεπτέμβριος 2014
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COMBAT JET NAVIGATION
Transcript of Fir Navigator Sept 2014
-
Forex & Interest Rates Navigator
2014
-
2
, , , , .
. , , , . , , .
. .
Alpha A.E. ( ) , , , .
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, Fed 2015.
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S&P500,NikkeiDAX,2011 2014
DAX(VDAX)
S&P500(VIX)
Nikkei(VNIKKEI)
65432101234567
%
: , Bloomberg
-
4
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
30
35
40
45
50
55
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65
70
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PMI , , . , , 2008 - 2014
.
-26%
-22%
-18%
-14%
-10%
-6%
-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
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, 2004 - 2014
: , : ,
.
.
. .
.
. . .
O 7%, 2020 2010. 7,5% 2014. 16 500 . ($81,4 .) . : , Bloomberg
-
5
22,32,62,93,23,53,84,14,44,75
5,35,65,96,26,56,87,17,47,7
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%
10,2006 2014
.
(ABS & ) .
2 , , .
10 5 (2,253%).
10 8 (2,04%).
10 26 (2,947%).
10 8 (5,52%) 2010.
0,30,20,1
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,91
1,11,2
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%
2,2012 2014
: , Bloomberg
-
6:
. 0,7%.
(100,6, : 102,1) 2013, . PMI (50,5) 14 .
0,8% 1,1%. .
(11,5%) 2012, (9,4%).
. 5
79
111315171921232527
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% , 1999 - 2014
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
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%
:,2000 2014
()
: , Bloomberg
-
7:
0,05%, -0,20% 0,30%.
, .
(0,4%) 2009, ( 2%) 19 .
2014 0,6% ( : 0,7%). 2015 2016 1,1% 1,4% .
(Inflation Swap 5Y5Y) (1,93%) 2010.
.
1
0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
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2,5
3
3,5
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%
:,,2003 2014
,
1,80%
1,90%
2,00%
2,10%
2,20%
2,30%
2,40%
2,50%
2,60%
2,70%
2,80%
2,90%
4
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InflationSwap5Y5Y,2004 2014
5Y5YBreakeven ECBTarget
: , Bloomberg
-
8: (TLTRO)
, 2014 2018 400 . (7% 30 2014 , ). 10 .. (MROs).
2015 2016 TLTRO . 2014.
(TLTRO) 850 ..
(18/9) 82,6 . 1 .
TLTRO September & December 2014 amount
CountryLoans to Non
Financial Corporations
Loans to Households
Loans for House Purchase
Non-financial private sector loans, excluding loans to
households for house purchase
(7% initial allowance) Banks' Eligible Loans
for TLTRO
Cyprus 25.175 21.965 11.694 35.446 2.481 Luxemburg 48.286 37.431 23.807 61.910 4.334 Portugal 97.470 127.346 105.241 119.575 8.370 Spain 602.412 764.445 598.277 768.580 53.801 Netherlands 373.079 428.908 388.144 413.843 28.969 Ireland 86.907 106.592 83.162 110.337 7.724 Malta 4.905 4.394 3.385 5.914 414 Greece 95.976 113.679 70.661 138.994 9.730 Finland 68.849 117.240 88.570 97.519 6.826 Germany 903.957 1.468.091 1.021.965 1.350.083 94.506 France 863.195 1.123.107 886.982 1.099.320 76.952 Italy 835.939 599.217 360.023 1.075.133 75.259 Belgium 116.355 127.704 104.401 139.658 9.776 Slovakia 16.021 21.161 15.845 21.337 1.494 Slovenia 13.895 8.861 5.304 17.452 1.222 Austria 163.165 143.820 87.968 219.017 15.331 Estonia 6.415 6.886 5.923 7.378 516 Latvia 6.665 5.857 4.914 7.608 533 Total 4.328.666 5.226.704 3.866.266 5.689.104 398.237
: , EKT, Bloomberg
-
9: , .
: (ABS & )
(ABS), (covered bonds).
2012 ( 1 .).
358 ., 2015.
SMP (148 .) .
400
200
200
400
600
800
1.000
TLTRO(.&.2014)
LTRO SMP *TLTRO(3/20156/2016)
*
*ABS
.
*
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
2.100
2.400
2.700
3.000
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
2.100
2.400
2.700
3.0004
/
1
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(.),2008 2014
Goldallassets LTRO MROMarginallendingfacility SMP CoveredBonds1CoveredBonds2 OtherAssets
~ 1 .
-
10
: 3
(0,082%). 3 0,10% 2016.
.
5 4 (0,4295%).
10 , , . 10 1,8%.
2016.
00,5
11,5
22,5
33,5
44,5
55,5
1
1
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0
1
6
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%
, IRS 5Y Euribor 3m, 2001 - 2014
Euribor 3MIRS 5Y
0,8
1,3
1,8
2,3
2,8
3,3
3,8
4,3
4,8
5,3
6
/
9
9
3
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1
2
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6
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2
3
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1
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3
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2
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3
6
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/
1
6
%
10 , 1999 - 2016
10
EKT
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,05% 0,05% 0,05% 0,05%
: , Bloomberg
-
11
/
Fed /.
Fed/ 2015 (2,2).
/ Fed.
, /. , .
(PPP) / $1,2300.
$0,60
$0,70
$0,80
$0,90
$1,00
$1,10
$1,20
$1,30
$1,40
$1,50
$1,60
8
/
8
3
8
/
8
4
8
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8
5
8
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6
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/ & PPP, 1983-2014
PPP estimate EUR/USDPPP 2 PPP 3
/
25/9/2014 3 6 12
$1,2700 $1,2700 $1,2500 $1,2300
1,15
1,20
1,25
1,30
1,35
1,40
1,45
1,50
1,55
0,80,9
11,11,21,31,41,51,61,71,81,9
22,12,22,3
9
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1
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5
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1
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5
/ Fed/ECB, 2009 - 2015
Fed/ /
: , Bloomberg
-
12
/
(MACD, ADX/DMI) . $1,2660 ( 13/11/12) $1,2500 (Fibonacci retracement
76,4%: $1.2043-$1.3993 5/9/12). RSI (9 : 10) ,
$1,2995 ( 16/9/14) $1,3160 ( 3/9/14).
-
13
:
4,2% ( : -2,1%). 4,2% ( : 3,3%).
6,1% (: 6,2%, : 5,8%), 2 (6/14: 6,1%) 2008.
ISM .
, , .
: , Bloomberg
10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
10%9%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%
3
/
0
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6
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0
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4
6
/
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4
: , 2007 - 2014
44,555,566,577,588,599,51010,5900
800700600500400300200100
0100200300400500600
8
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0
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1
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3
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1
4
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/
1
4
%
.
:,20062014
-
14
: Fed
17 , Fed ($15 . $25 .). , .
Fed (0%-0,25%) 2%.
Taylor, (6,1%) (1,5%), .
, 0,50% 2015 56%.
-7-6-5-4-3-2-10123456789
1
2
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9
3
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4
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6
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9
7
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0
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/
1
5
%
Fed Taylor, 1994 - 2015
Taylor Fed 95%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
1
0
/
2
9
/
2
0
1
4
1
2
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1
7
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2
0
1
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0
/
2
8
/
2
0
1
5
1
2
/
1
6
/
2
0
1
5
0
1
/
2
7
/
2
0
1
6
Fed
Fedrate0,50%
Fedrate0,75%
: , Bloomberg
-
15
:
O Fed $4,45 ..
Fed, .
Fed (Janet Yellen) .
, (MBS).
, Fed 2015.
$500
$900
$1.300
$1.700
$2.100
$2.500
$2.900
$3.300
$3.700
$4.100
$4.500
9
/
0
7
1
/
0
8
5
/
0
8
9
/
0
8
1
/
0
9
5
/
0
9
9
/
0
9
1
/
1
0
5
/
1
0
9
/
1
0
1
/
1
1
5
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
1
/
1
2
5
/
1
2
9
/
1
2
1
/
1
3
5
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
5
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
1
/
1
5
.
Fed.$,2007 2015
Fed
Fed$10.
Fed
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,125% 0,125% 0,25% 0,50%
: , Bloomberg
-
16
(DXY)
DXY 22 (84,86) 2010. 84,90 76,4% Fibonacci retracement 88,71- 72,69. 86,26 ( 1/7/10).
RSI (9 : 77) , 82,84 ( 4/9/14).
-
17
: ,
1,8% (-0,1%), 2012. 8% 5%.
Tankan 12 ( : 17).
(416,7 ., : 444,2 ., : -399,1 .).
ECO Watchers (47,4, : 51, : 51,3), 12 (51).
PMI 51,7 (: 52,2), 4 .
(Aso) 2014.
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
10
20
30
40
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
6
/
0
2
1
2
/
0
2
6
/
0
3
1
2
/
0
3
6
/
0
4
1
2
/
0
4
6
/
0
5
1
2
/
0
5
6
/
0
6
1
2
/
0
6
6
/
0
7
1
2
/
0
7
6
/
0
8
1
2
/
0
8
6
/
0
9
1
2
/
0
9
6
/
1
0
1
2
/
1
0
6
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
6
/
1
2
1
2
/
1
2
6
/
1
3
1
2
/
1
3
6
/
1
4
%
: Tankan, 2002 - 2014
, Tankan
51015202530354045505560
8
/
0
6
2
/
0
7
8
/
0
7
2
/
0
8
8
/
0
8
2
/
0
9
8
/
0
9
2
/
1
0
8
/
1
0
2
/
1
1
8
/
1
1
2
/
1
2
8
/
1
2
2
/
1
3
8
/
1
3
2
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
: Eco Watchers (2006-2014)
Eco Watchers
CO Watchers
: , Bloomberg
-
18
:
3,3%, (3,4%) 1982. (4/2014), , 1,3%.
4 . (Kuroda) , . , .
.
.
-3-2,5
-2-1,5
-1-0,5
00,5
11,5
22,5
33,5
4
8
/
0
4
2
/
0
5
8
/
0
5
2
/
0
6
8
/
0
6
2
/
0
7
8
/
0
7
2
/
0
8
8
/
0
8
2
/
0
9
8
/
0
9
2
/
1
0
8
/
1
0
2
/
1
1
8
/
1
1
2
/
1
2
8
/
1
2
2
/
1
3
8
/
1
3
2
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
%
, 2004-2014
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,00% 0,00% 0,00% 0,00%
: , Bloomberg
20406080100120140160180200220240260280
3
/
1
1
6
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
3
/
1
2
6
/
1
2
9
/
1
2
1
2
/
1
2
3
/
1
3
6
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
1
2
/
1
3
3
/
1
4
6
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
.
,2011 2014
JGBs Corporatebonds ComercialpaperExchangetradedfunds(ETFs) JREITs Otherassets
-
19
/ Fed
/ (109,46) 19 .
/ .
.
(GPIF) .
(PPP) / 100 .
, .
45607590
105120135150165180195210225240
1
1
/
8
5
2
/
8
7
5
/
8
8
8
/
8
9
1
1
/
9
0
2
/
9
2
5
/
9
3
8
/
9
4
1
1
/
9
5
2
/
9
7
5
/
9
8
8
/
9
9
1
1
/
0
0
2
/
0
2
5
/
0
3
8
/
0
4
1
1
/
0
5
2
/
0
7
5
/
0
8
8
/
0
9
1
1
/
1
0
2
/
1
2
5
/
1
3
8
/
1
4
/ PPP, 1985 - 2014
PPP estimate USD/JPY
PPP PPP 2
/
25/9/2014 3 6 12
109,30 108,00 110,00 109,00
: , Bloomberg
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,7
2,8
2,9
3
3,1
7
/
1
3
8
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
1
0
/
1
3
1
1
/
1
3
1
2
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
2
/
1
4
3
/
1
4
4
/
1
4
5
/
1
4
6
/
1
4
7
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
%
10 &/,2013 2014
10$/
-
20
/
/, (MACD, ADX/DMI).
110,70 ( 15/8/08) 112,60 (76,4% Fibonacci retracement: 75,35 124,14).
106,80 ( 16/9/14) 103 ( 200 ).
-
21
. :
(0,8%, : 0,8%) 6 . (3,2%, 2013: 2,7%) 2007. 2,7%.
. , PMI (52,5, : 54,8) 2013, 18 . O (0,2%) 2 4,5%.
(6,2%) 2008.
.
. (18 ) 55,3%.
30,00
35,00
40,00
45,00
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
4
/
0
6
8
/
0
6
1
2
/
0
6
4
/
0
7
8
/
0
7
1
2
/
0
7
4
/
0
8
8
/
0
8
1
2
/
0
8
4
/
0
9
8
/
0
9
1
2
/
0
9
4
/
1
0
8
/
1
0
1
2
/
1
0
4
/
1
1
8
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
4
/
1
2
8
/
1
2
1
2
/
1
2
4
/
1
3
8
/
1
3
1
2
/
1
3
4
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
. : PMI, 2006 - 2014
PMI PMI
20
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
8
/
0
0
3
/
0
1
1
0
/
0
1
5
/
0
2
1
2
/
0
2
7
/
0
3
2
/
0
4
9
/
0
4
4
/
0
5
1
1
/
0
5
6
/
0
6
1
/
0
7
8
/
0
7
3
/
0
8
1
0
/
0
8
5
/
0
9
1
2
/
0
9
7
/
1
0
2
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
4
/
1
2
1
1
/
1
2
6
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
%
.:2000 2014
NationwideHBOS
: , Bloomberg
-
22
: 2015
0,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,05,56,0
7
/
0
1
1
/
0
2
7
/
0
2
1
/
0
3
7
/
0
3
1
/
0
4
7
/
0
4
1
/
0
5
7
/
0
5
1
/
0
6
7
/
0
6
1
/
0
7
7
/
0
7
1
/
0
8
7
/
0
8
1
/
0
9
7
/
0
9
1
/
1
0
7
/
1
0
1
/
1
1
7
/
1
1
1
/
1
2
7
/
1
2
1
/
1
3
7
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
7
/
1
4
%
. : , 2001 - 2014
,
,
.
(1,5%, : 1,6%) 2009, (2%) 8 .
(3-4 ), 0,50% , 2 9 0,25%. .
(7 2015) .
, 25 .. 2015. , .
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,50% 0,50% 0,75% 1,25%0
0,51
1,52
2,53
3,54
4,55
5,56
6,57
9
/
0
0
6
/
0
1
3
/
0
2
1
2
/
0
2
9
/
0
3
6
/
0
4
3
/
0
5
1
2
/
0
5
9
/
0
6
6
/
0
7
3
/
0
8
1
2
/
0
8
9
/
0
9
6
/
1
0
3
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
9
/
1
2
6
/
1
3
3
/
1
4
1
2
/
1
4
9
/
1
5
6
/
1
6
%
322/9/14
: , Bloomberg
-
23
/ .
Fed .
/.
. .
, / 6-12 0,7500, . .
/ (PPP).
0,50
0,55
0,60
0,65
0,70
0,75
0,80
0,85
0,90
0,95
1,00
5
/
9
6
4
/
9
7
3
/
9
8
2
/
9
9
1
/
0
0
1
2
/
0
0
1
1
/
0
1
1
0
/
0
2
9
/
0
3
8
/
0
4
7
/
0
5
6
/
0
6
5
/
0
7
4
/
0
8
3
/
0
9
2
/
1
0
1
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
1
1
/
1
2
1
0
/
1
3
9
/
1
4
/ & PPP, 1996-2014
PPP estimate EUR/GBP PPP 3* PPP 2*
/
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,7800 0,7700 0,7600 0,7500
190
160
130
100
70
40
10
20
50
80
110
0,63
0,66
0,69
0,72
0,75
0,78
0,81
0,84
0,87
0,9
0,93
0,96
0,99
1
/
0
7
5
/
0
7
9
/
0
7
1
/
0
8
5
/
0
8
9
/
0
8
1
/
0
9
5
/
0
9
9
/
0
9
1
/
1
0
5
/
1
0
9
/
1
0
1
/
1
1
5
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
1
/
1
2
5
/
1
2
9
/
1
2
1
/
1
3
5
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
5
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
.
.
/2,2007 2014
/
2
: , Bloomberg
-
24
/
/. / 0,7750 ( 23/7/12 & )
0,7695 ( 20/10/08). / 0,8065 ( 10/9/14) 0,8130 ( 200 ).
-
25
:
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
8
/
0
0
3
/
0
1
1
0
/
0
1
5
/
0
2
1
2
/
0
2
7
/
0
3
2
/
0
4
9
/
0
4
4
/
0
5
1
1
/
0
5
6
/
0
6
1
/
0
7
8
/
0
7
3
/
0
8
1
0
/
0
8
5
/
0
9
1
2
/
0
9
7
/
1
0
2
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
4
/
1
2
1
1
/
1
2
6
/
1
3
1
/
1
4
8
/
1
4
: KOF PMI, 2000 - 2014
KOF PMI
. (1,1%, : 1,7%) 2012.
(1,386 . , : 3,901 . ) 2013, .
. KOF 99,5 (: 97,9 , 12 : 104,05). PMI (52,9) , 16 .
2% 2015 2,6%.
.
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
9
/
0
5
3
/
0
6
9
/
0
6
3
/
0
7
9
/
0
7
3
/
0
8
9
/
0
8
3
/
0
9
9
/
0
9
3
/
1
0
9
/
1
0
3
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
3
/
1
2
9
/
1
2
3
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
3
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
:.,2005 2014
3
: , Bloomberg
-
26
:
18 3 Libor 0,00%-0,25%, / . .
, .
1,5% (. : 2%). 0,1%. 2015 0,2% (. : 0,3%) 2016 0,5% (. : 0,9%).
(0,1%) .
, / 2016.
.
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
3
/
0
1
9
/
0
1
3
/
0
2
9
/
0
2
3
/
0
3
9
/
0
3
3
/
0
4
9
/
0
4
3
/
0
5
9
/
0
5
3
/
0
6
9
/
0
6
3
/
0
7
9
/
0
7
3
/
0
8
9
/
0
8
3
/
0
9
9
/
0
9
3
/
1
0
9
/
1
0
3
/
1
1
9
/
1
1
3
/
1
2
9
/
1
2
3
/
1
3
9
/
1
3
3
/
1
4
9
/
1
4
3
/
1
5
9
/
1
5
3
/
1
6
9
/
1
6
3
/
1
7
%
,2001 2017
6/20149/2014
3 Libor
25/9/2014 3 6 12
0,00%-0,25% 0,00%-0,25% 0,00%-0,25% 0,00%-0,25%
: , Bloomberg
-
27
/
/ (1,20 ) 2011 / , / .
/ , . .
/ 1,23 12 , .
(PPP) / 1,35 , 10% .
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
1,60
1,70
1,80
1,90
1
1
/
9
3
1
/
9
5
3
/
9
6
5
/
9
7
7
/
9
8
9
/
9
9
1
1
/
0
0
1
/
0
2
3
/
0
3
5
/
0
4
7
/
0
5
9
/
0
6
1
1
/
0
7
1
/
0
9
3
/
1
0
5
/
1
1
7
/
1
2
9
/
1
3
1
1
/
1
4
/ & PPP, 1993 - 2014
EUR/CHF PPP PPP 1st deviation
/
25/9/2014 3 6 12
1,2080 CHF 1,2150 CHF 1,2250 CHF 1,2300 CHF
4
3,5
3
2,5
2
1,5
1
0,5
0
0,5
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
8
/
0
0
4
/
0
1
1
2
/
0
1
8
/
0
2
4
/
0
3
1
2
/
0
3
8
/
0
4
4
/
0
5
1
2
/
0
5
8
/
0
6
4
/
0
7
1
2
/
0
7
8
/
0
8
4
/
0
9
1
2
/
0
9
8
/
1
0
4
/
1
1
1
2
/
1
1
8
/
1
2
4
/
1
3
1
2
/
1
3
8
/
1
4
/,2000 2014
/
: , Bloomberg
-
28
/
/ (1,2100 1,2300) . .
1,2045 ( 4/9/14) 1,2000 ( ).
1,2120 (10/9 & 17/9 ) 1,2185 ( 200 ).
-
29
210-326 8265 [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected] , CFA [email protected] [email protected]
![A Typical DSP System - Creating Web Pages in your Accountweb.cecs.pdx.edu/~jenq/ECE465.pdfDigital Signal Processing YCJ 34 FIR and IIR Filters An FIR filter has impulse response, h[n],](https://static.fdocument.org/doc/165x107/5f49ea503d542c2ee02c9bcd/a-typical-dsp-system-creating-web-pages-in-your-jenqece465pdf-digital-signal.jpg)
