Estimation of the Energy Saving Potentials in Residential ... · Estimation of the Energy Saving...

Estimation of the Energy Saving Potentials

in Residential, Commercial and Service

Sectors of Cyprus

Apostolos Michopoulos, Theodoros Zachariadis

Research Group on Energy & Environmental Economics & Policy (3ΕΡ)

Department of Environmental Science and Technology

Cyprus University of Technology

Final Meeting of SRSS/S2016/002 Project

Nicosia, April 25th, 2017

In the framework of SRSS/S2016/002 project, the following energy

saving potential was estimated:

• the theoretical (technical) energy saving potential and

• the economically viable energy saving potential on:

(a) residential sector (buildings),

(b) service sector (commercial buildings) and

(c) industrial sector in Cyprus.

In this presentation the methodology for the estimation of the

aforementioned energy saving potentials and the final results are

presented.

An overview

Residential sector - Theoretical

The theoretical (technical) energy saving potential for the residential

building sector is defined as:

“the amount of the current energy consumption that will be saved if the

existing residential building stock is upgraded to nearly zero energy

buildings based on the provisions of decree 366/2014”

This potential was estimated in terms of percentage reduction in:

(a) heating energy consumption,

(b) cooling energy consumption,

(c) energy consumption for domestic hot water production and

(d) electricity consumption for lighting and appliances

assuming the gradual penetration of the following technologies:

• High efficiency heat pumps for cooling in all buildings

• 90% High efficiency heat pumps + 10% high efficiency boilers for heating in

multi-family buildings, located in urban and rural areas


single family buildings located in urban areas


single family buildings located in rural areas.


In order to achieve this the 3EP-CUT group developed and validated the

“Energy Estimation Model for Residential Sector - 2EMRS”.


Building area per characteristic

building typology, construction

period and characteristic

climate location

Characteristic

Building Typologies

per construction

period

Calculation of the annual energy

demand per m2, per characteristic

building typology, construction

period and characteristic climate

location

Typical

meteorological

years


demand per characteristic building

typology, and construction period

Calculation of the net annual

energy demand per characteristic

building typology, and construction

period

Usage factor of

heating/cooling

system per

construction period


consumption per fuel usage, and

construction period

Technology and fuel

usage factor per

heating/cooling system

and construction period

Technology and fuel

usage efficiency per

heating/cooling system

and construction period

Calculation of the net annual

energy consumption per fuel

usage, and construction period

Time depended usage

factor of heating/

cooling system

Dynamic

simulation

software

(EnergyPlus)

The model uses four characteristic residential building envelopes of the

current building stock of Cyprus which are:

(a) a single-family house

(b) a two storey house

(c) a detached house and

(d) a multi-family building

In four characteristic construction periods:

(a) before 1970

(b) 1971-1990

(c) 1991-2007

(b) 2008-now


The characteristics of each building envelope have been selected

according to the construction practice of each period, resulting in 28

different envelopes in total.

These envelopes have been simulated using the EnergyPlus software

in 3 different climate zones of Cyprus:

(a) coastal zone (Limassol)

(b) mainland zone (Nicosia)

(c) mountainous zone (Saittas)

resulting in 84 different case-studies overall.

In order to estimate the theoretical energy saving potential for the

residential sector two series of simulations are needed (168 case-

studies in total).



Based on the energy simulation results and taking into consideration

proper weighting factors regarding the use of:

• heating/cooling system per construction period,

• technology and fuel per heating/cooling system

• efficiency per technology and fuel per heating/cooling system

• time depended use of heating/cooling system

which was retrieved from the:

(a) final energy consumption survey for residential sector performed by

CYStat,

(b) energy balance of Cyprus between 2010-2015 developed by 3EP-CUT

(c) building construction survey performed by CYStat,

the 2EMBS model estimates the final energy consumption of the

residential sector of Cyprus.

The following table summarizes the theoretical (technical) energy

saving potential for the residential building sector


Heating

Electricity Diesel Kerosene LPG Biomass

66.2% 100.0% 100.0% 36.2% 100.0%

Cooling

80.3%

DHW

26.2% 100.0% 100.0% 27.1% 100.0%

Lighting and Appliances

55.0%

Overall

60.1% 100.0% 100.0% 35.6% 100.0%

Overall reduction equal to 67.4% (based on fossil fuels’ balance) or 51.3% (accounting

RES production)

Commercial sector - Theoretical

As with the residential sector, the theoretical (technical) energy saving

potential for the commercial building sector is defined as:

“the amount of the current energy consumption that will be saved if the

existing commercial building stock is upgraded to nearly zero energy

buildings based on the provisions of decree 366/2014”

Due to the significant diversity of building types, pattern uses,

equipment etc., as well as the lack of an adequate existing model, this

analysis was performed with the aid of:

• in-situ visits of CUT personnel and interviews with the energy

managers of large facility owners, such as banks, hotels and office

blocks;


• interviews with directors of energy management companies;

• data provided by local companies that are highly involved with the

design, construction and maintenance of facilities;

• data provided by MECIT retrieved by previous analysis of the

Service sector;

• the findings of the JRC study “Energy Efficiency: Technical

Assistance in the framework of the directive 27/2012/EU for the

assessment of the potential for the application of high efficiency

cogeneration and efficient district heating and cooling in Cyprus and

identify measures to exploit it a cost effective manner” that was

conducted in 2016.


The following table summarizes the theoretical (technical) energy

saving potential for the commercial sector

Fuel Savings

Electricity 73.0%

Gas oil 100.0%

LPG -115.2%

Kerosene 100.0%

Light fuel oil 100.0%

Biomass 60.0%

Overall 64.7%

Solar & Recovery -35.6%

Industrial sector - Theoretical

The theoretical (technical) energy saving potential for the industrial

sector is defined as:

“the amount of the current energy consumption that will be saved if

industrial plants upgrade and/or replace their equipment and install high

efficiency one which is available in the market.”

Due to the significant diversity of industries, pattern uses, process and

equipment use, as well as the lack of existing data, the analysis was

based on:

• in-situ visits of CUT personnel and interviews with the energy

managers of the following plants:

(a) cement industry,

(b) food and beverages,

(c) water supply,

(d) plastics,

(e) building material industry.

Industrial sector - Theoretical

• data provided by local companies that are highly involved with the

design, construction and maintenance of industrial equipment.

Based on the available collected data the main fuel that the industries

are using is electricity.

The results show that the theoretical (technical) energy saving potential

in industry is 34% for electricity and 5% for fuel oil and gas oil

(weighted average ratio).

Economically Viable Potential

Residential sector - Economically Viable

According to the analysis results of the theoretical energy saving

potential the following energy interventions should be the priority in

order to improve the energy efficiency of the current residential building

stock:

(a) insulation of the horizontal elements (roof, ceiling, etc.)

(b) insulation of the vertical elements (reinforced elements, masonry)

(c) installation of shading devices

(d) high efficiency windows (frame and glasses)

(e) installation of LED lighting bulbs

(f) high efficiency heat pumps

(g) solar thermal collectors

(h) high efficiency boilers (in rural areas)

The JRC study on “Building stock in Cyprus and trends to 2030” have

shown that under Scenario 1 which integrative policies recognized as

particularly appropriate to the Cyprus context the total expenditure in

renovations is about 450-500 million €

Taking into consideration the average intervention costs for fully

intervention and individual interventions per dwelling an overall of

65,000 interventions are foreseen.

Residential sector - Economically Viable

Based on these assumptions and using the CUT-2EMRS model the

economically viable energy saving potential for the residential building

sector was estimated


Heating

Electricity Diesel Kerosene LPG Biomass

-2.7% 14.4% 12.7% 2.0% 12.2%

Cooling

9.9%

DHW

-22.1% 20.9% 35.6% 20.7% 49.8%

Lighting and Appliances

3.9%

Overall

4.8% 15.2% 14.1% 3.2% 13.6%

Overall reduction equal to 7.4% (based on fossil fuels’ balance) or 5.2% (accounting RES

production)

Commercial sector - Economically Viable

According to the analysis and results of the theoretical energy saving

potential as well as the review of the existing literature the following

energy interventions should be the priority in order to improve the

energy efficiency of the current commercial building stock:

(a) insulation of the horizontal elements (roof, ceiling, etc.)

(b) installation of shading devices

(c) insulation of the vertical elements (reinforced elements, masonry)

(d) high efficiency windows (frame and glasses)


(f) high efficiency heat pumps

(in all subsectors)

In Hotel and Lodges

(a) heat recovery from cooling systems

(b) heat pumps for HW

(c) solar thermal collectors

(d) solar cooling

(e) CHP+trigeneration

In Health facilities

(a) heat recovery from cooling systems

(b) heat pumps for HW

(c) solar thermal collectors

(d) solar cooling

(e) CHP


The JRC study on “Building stock in Cyprus and trends to 2030” have

shown that under Scenario 1 which integrative policies recognized as

particularly appropriate to the Cyprus context the total expenditure in

renovations is about 7.5-8.0 million €


This is a extremely low

expenditure amount and

budget for EE measures

in the service sector,

would lead to relative

low savings

Considering the current and foreseen expenditures during the period

until 2020, it was assumed that an average annual total expenditure for

energy efficiency interventions for both public and private buildings in

the service sector of around 25-30 mil EUR should be regarded as

realistic for the period until 2030 if an appropriate mix of instruments

and policies are in place.

Based on that and taking into consideration specific potentials that

came out during discussions with the consultants, energy managers

and owners of specific facilities, a potential of 6% was considered as

realistic.

On top of this, an additional amount of electricity savings at the range

of 2.4% were assumed for the same period, in order to take into

account the foreseen replacement of all street lighting.


Industrial sector – Economically Viable

According to the analysis and results of the theoretical energy saving

potential the following energy interventions should be a priority in order

to improve the energy efficiency of the industrial sector:

(a) high efficiency electrical motors

(b) inverters

(c) automations

(d) heat recovery


(f) installation of energy efficient compressed-air systems

(g) CHP

As agreed during meetings between MECIT and the study group, the

economic potential for the industrial sector is defined as:

“the amount of the current energy consumption that will be saved if

industrial plants upgrade and/or replace their equipment and install high

efficiency one which is available in the market based on their economic

capability/programming”

Based on that and taking into account the results of the discussions with the

energy managers of the specific industries, the economically viable energy

saving potential for the industrial sector is estimated to 6.2% in electricity and

0.5% for fuel oil and gas oil.

Industrial sector – Economically Viable

Thank you very much for your

attention and contribution!!

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