Demographic Imbalances in Undergraduate Economics Attrition

Anastasia'Golovashkina'golovashkina@uchicago.edu1

Introduction

Literature

Female'Students'(literature1already1extensive;18indings1consistent)1•  Dynan1&1Rouse1(1997),1Benedict1&1Hoag1(2002),1Swope1&1Schmitt1

(2006),1Rask1&1Tiefenthaler1(2008),1Emerson1et1al.1(2012),1etc.''•  Find'women'tend'to'earn'higher'Economics'grades,'but'are'more'

sensitive'to'low'grades'�'higher'attrition'''Low=Income'Students'(no1literature1on1attrition1from1Economics)'•  More1generally,1lowOincome1students1tend1to1major1in1qualitative1

8ields,1earn1lower1grades,1drop1out1at1higher1rates,1etc.1(Aries12008)11

Minority'Students'(literature1exists,1but1very1limited)'•  Borg1&1Stranagan1(2002)18ind1black1students1earn1comparable1grades,1

but1rarely1“star1performers”1in1Economics1

•  Minority1students1face1acutely1severe18inancial1pressures,1but1income1

can’t1fully1explain1racial1gaps1in1academic1performance1&1outcomes1

Research Question

•  Do1students1of1certain1demographics1switch1out1more1than1others?1If1yes,1why?1

•  Do1relationships1identi8ied1in1the1literature1for1women1(grade1sensitivity)1help1explain1higher1

rates1of1attrition1among1other1groups?1

Data Source

•  N=3,2641undergraduates1from1entering1classes1of12005O20101at1a1midOsized1selective1university1

•  Population1of1students1who1completed1prerequisite1Introductory1Economics1as1a1freshman/sophomore1&1

at1least1one!intermediate,1majorOspeci8ic1course1

Data Source

Model

•  Tested1wide1variety1of1(modi8ied)1grade1sensitivity1models1adopted1from1literature1

–  Including1Dynan1&1Rouse1(1997),1Rask1&1Tiefenthaler1(2008),1Emerson1et1al.1(2012)1

•  Proceeded1with1closer1examination1of1topOperforming1model1on1segmented1male/female,1highO/lowOincome,1

white/minority1student1subgroups1

Finding #1: Attrition Gap Summary

•  Female,1lowOincome,1and1minority1students1all1switch1out1of1the1major1at1higher1rates1

•  Female1&1lowOincome1student1attrition1is1concentrated1between18irst1&1second1course1

–  Echoes18indings1about1female1students1in1Horvath1(1992),1Robb1&1Robb1(1999),1Chizmar1(2000)1

•  Racial1gap1readily1apparent1&1growing1throughout1•  Minority1dummy1has1sizable,1signi8icant1negative1coef8icient1in1all1segmented1cohort1regressions1

Finding #1: Gender Attrition Gap

Finding #1: Income Attrition Gap

Finding #1: Racial Attrition Gap

Finding #1: Racial Attrition Gap

Finding #1: Racial Attrition Gap

Finding #2: Grades & Demographics

•  Female1students1average1signi8icantly1higher1grades1than1male1

•  LowOincome1students1average1comparable1grades1to1highOincome11

•  Minority1students—particularly1Black1&1Hispanic

—average1overwhelmingly!lower1grades1than1students1of1other1races,1especially1white1&1foreign1

Finding #2: Grades & Demographics

Finding #2: Grades & Race

Finding #3: Grade Sensitivity

•  Though1all1students1respond1to1grades,1women1have1uniquely1strong1negative1response1to1Ds1&1Fs11

•  For1all1other1demographics,1grades1trace1quadratic1pattern1across1grade1distribution1

Finding #3: Grade Sensitivity

Finding #3: Grade Sensitivity

Finding #4: Beyond Demographics

•  Interest,1course(s)'taken,1SAT'scores1also1have1signi8icant,1sizable1effects1on1full1student1population1&1

all1demographic1subgroups1separately1

Finding #4: Beyond Demographics

Summary of Findings

Does'grade'sensitivity'explain'a'substantial'piece'of'attrition'among'other'groups?1

Summary: Female Students

Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition'•  Earn1higher1grades1on1average,1but1uniquely1sensitive1to1very1low1grades1(literature1�)1

•  Heavily1overrepresented1among1students1whose18irst1course1is1an1elective1(61.2%1vs.144.8%)—important1

because1attrition1concentrated1at1early1stages1

•  Lower1SAT1math1scores1(6461vs.1661)11!Not!Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition!•  Lack1of1interest1(proportionally1represented1in1Economics/Business1interest;1overrepresented1in1Social1Science)1

Summary: Female Students

Summary: Low-Income Students

Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition'•  Lower1SAT1math1scores1(6461vs.1660)11•  Lower1preOcollegiate1interest1(28.4%1vs.138.8%)—important1because1attrition1concentrated1at1early1stages1

•  First1course1taken1(much1more1than1for1highOincome)1!Not!Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition!•  Low1high1school/college1grades1(comparable1academic1performance1throughout1high1school1&1college)1

Summary: Low-Income Students

Summary: Minority Students

Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition'•  Not1just1“lacking1star1performers”—much1weaker1academically,1across1the1board1(Economics1grades,1college1

&1high1school1GPAs,1SAT1scores,1etc.)1

•  Black1&1Hispanic1performance1gaps1most1severe,1particularly1vs.1white1&1foreign1students1

•  First1course1taken1(not1as1important1as1for1other1groups)1!Not!Contributors'to'Higher'Attrition!•  Lack1of1interest1(heavily1overrepresented!in1key1interest1areas—37.6%1in1Economics,124.3%1in1Business,1vs.123.9%)1

Summary: Minority Students

Most Important?

Findings1suggest1the1single1best1thing1for1promoting1

equal1opportunity1across1the1board1is1a1strict'undergraduate'curriculum'featuring:1•  Microeconomics1&1Macroeconomics1•  Math1(Calculus1&1Statistics)1

Questions

Anastasia'Golovashkina'golovashkina@uchicago.edu1

Presentation Appendix

(the1remaining1slides1were1not1presented,1but1are1

included1as1a1supplementary1reference1for1the1Q&A1

portion1of1my1presentation)1

Data Source

Model Building & Selection

•  Model'(1):11–  Second'Course:1…1β4Econ1!Grade1+!β5GPA1!…11–  Economics'Major:1…1β4Econ1!Grade1+!β5GPA1!+1β6Econ2!Grade1+!β7GPA2!+1…1

•  Model'(2):1…1β4Econ!Grade1!+1(β5Econ!Grade1)21+!β6GPA1!+1…1

•  Model'(3):1β4Econ!Grade1!+!β5Econ1!≥A>!+!β6Econ1!≤D+!+1β7GPA1!+1…!!

•  Model'(4):1…1β4Relative!Grade1!…!•  Model'(5):1…1β4Econ1!Grade!+!β5Relative!Grade1!Q1!+!β6Relative!Grade1!Q4!+1β7GPA1!+1…1

Model (1)

Model (2)

Model (3)

Model (4)

Model (5)