CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑŸι απόφοιτοί μας... · capesize $ pmt cargo ports 11th oct...

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CHARTERING: CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑ ΘΕΩΡΙΑ ΚΑΙ ΚΑΙ ΠΡΑΞΗ ΠΡΑΞΗ VOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN VOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES Dimitris I. Diamantidis

Transcript of CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑŸι απόφοιτοί μας... · capesize $ pmt cargo ports 11th oct...

Page 1: CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑŸι απόφοιτοί μας... · capesize $ pmt cargo ports 11th oct 18th oct 2013 165,000t ore tub / rtdm 15,65 15.1 9.57 165,000t ore tub / el dekheila

CHARTERING: CHARTERING: ΘΕΩΡΙΑΘΕΩΡΙΑ

ΚΑΙΚΑΙ

ΠΡΑΞΗΠΡΑΞΗVOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN VOLATILITY OF THE MARKET IN CAPESIZES AND PANAMAXESCAPESIZES AND PANAMAXES

Dimitris

I. Diamantidis

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PRESENTATION 2013

• Part 1 : Basics

• Part 2 : Market report ‐

Volatility ( BCI – BPI )

•• Part 3 : Analysis

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Part 1 : Basics

• P1.1 : FIXTURES• P1.2 : VESSELS ( BULKERS )• P1.3 : CHARTERERS ( CAPES –

Indicatively

)

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P1.1 : FIXTURES

• P 1.1.1 VOYAGE CHARTER• P 1.1.2 TIME CHARTER (TCT – SP – Long Period)

• P 1.1.3 BAREBOAT CHARTER• P 1.1.4 C.O.A.

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P1.2 : VESSELS ( BULKERS )

HANDYSIZE

: 20.000 ‐

39.000 DWTHANDYMAX

: 40.000 ‐

49.000 DWT

SUPRAMAX : 50.000 ‐

59.000 DWT

ULTRAMAX

: 60.000 ‐

64.000 DWTPANAMAX

: 65.000 ‐

79.000 DWT

KAMSARMAX

: 80.000 ‐

89.000 DWTPOST PMX

: 90.000 ‐

99.000 DWT

BABY CAPESIZE

: 100.000 ‐

129.000 DWTCAPESIZE

: 130.000 ‐

189.000 DWT

NEWCASTLEMAX : 189.000 ‐

229.000 DWTVLOC

: 280.000 ‐

310.000 DWT

VALEMAX

: 400.000 DWT < …

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P1.3

CHARTERERS ( CAPES ‐

Ενδεικτικά)

CARGILL, VALE, HANJIN, OLDENDORFF, ESSAR,

WINNING, MOL, COSBULK, RIO TINTO, DAICHI,

POLARIS, CSN, BUNGE, SINOCHART, NS UNITED,

PHAETHON, KOREA LINES, STX, VITOL, MORGAN,

CETRAGPA, TATA, NOBLE , DHL, MOSK, SAMSUN,

SWISSMARINE, SOLEBAY, GPN…

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CAPESIZE

$ PMT

CARGO PORTS 11TH OCT 18TH OCT 2013

165,000t ORE TUB / RTDM 15,65 15.1 9.57

165,000t ORE TUB / EL DEKHEILA 16,3 16 10,05

165,000t ORE TUB / BAOSHAN 26,9 26.65 20.25

165,000t COAL BOLIVAR / RTDM 16,25 15,75 10.35

165,000t ORE DAMPIER / BAO. 11,25 11.15 8.33

165,000t ORE SALDANHA / BAO. 21 19.9 14.93

165,000t ORE DAMPIER / JAPAN 11 10.8 8.11

150,000t COAL HAY PT / RTDM 21,6 21.25 15

150,000t COAL INDONESIA / RTDM 16,7 15.35 9,33

150,000t COAL HAY PT / CHINA 13,8 13.4 9,64

150,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 13,65 13,15 8,32

150,000t COAL RBCT / ECI 14 13,5 11.86

CAPESIZE SINGLE VOY

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PANAMAX

$ PMT

CARGO PORTS OCT 11 OCT 18 2013

70,000t COAL H . RDS / ARA 15,5 15,75 11.96

70,000t COAL USG / ARA 19,75 20.25 15,88

70,000t COAL BOLIVAR / ARA 18 18,2 14,26

70,000t COAL ROB BANK / NCHINA 19,75 19,75 15,42

70,000t COAL DALRYMP / NCHINA 17,5 17,3 12,88

55,000t COAL ROB BANK / RTDM 21,35 21,35 18,64

70,000t COAL INDO / RTDM 17,25 17,25 14,61

70,000t COAL DALRYMPLE / RTDM 22,2 22,05 18,12

70,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 13,5 13,65 11,17

70,000t COAL RBCT / WCI 17,5 17 16,24

PMX SINGLE VOY

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CAPESIZE

CARGO PORTS 2011 2012 2013 21 OCT 2013

165,000t ORE TUB / RTDM 10729 ‐764 5251 30341

165,000t ORE TUB / EL DEKHEILA 14728 2792 9236 37853

165,000t ORE TUB / BAOSHAN 27304 18997 21975 40000

165,000t COAL BOLIVAR / RTDM 15803 4780 9493 32000

165,000t ORE DAMPIER / BAO. 14236 6693 11241 26500

165,000t ORE SALDANHA / BAO. 15912 9658 14109 30250

165,000t ORE DAMPIER / JAPAN 15716 7305 13422 30600

150,000t COAL HAY PT / RTDM 208 ‐6660 ‐1937 12600

150,000t COAL INDONESIA / RTDM ‐1630 ‐9664 ‐6354 10500

150,000t COAL HAY PT / CHINA 7419 255 5163 21200

150,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM ‐2615 ‐11227 ‐8579 6000

150,000t COAL RBCT / ECI 19380 10400 13952 20136

16758 7402 12276 31900

CAPESIZE SINGLE VOY AVERAGE EARNING $ PER DAY

AV.EARNINGS

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PANAMAX

AVERAGE EARNING PER DAY

CARGO PORTS 2011 2012 2013 18 Oct 2013

70,000t COAL H . RDS / ARA 12729 5414 6598 115761

70,000t COAL USG / ARA 14301 7023 6440 13784

70,000t COAL BOLIVAR / ARA 12046 4620 6287 14341

70,000t COAL ROB BANK / NCHINA 12034 7441 7932 15495

70,000t COAL DALRYMP / NCHINA 11871 7338 8591 18601

55,000t COAL ROB BANK / RTDM 6028 1089 ‐632 2390

70,000t COAL INDO / RTDM 4268 ‐687 ‐684 3223

70,000t COAL DALRYMPLE / RTDM 4156 ‐252 ‐255 4277

70,000t COAL RBCT / RTDM 1890 ‐2442 ‐2450 1767

70,000t COAL RBCT / WCI 13010 10369 11159 12756

10176 5274 5648 11793

PMX SINGLE VOY

AVERAGE EARNING

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SNP

YEAR 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013

Q1

2013

Q2

Q3 Q4

CAPES 47 64.5 57 150 150 119.4 54 58 39 32.5 27 30.8 36 ?

PMX 28 40 29.5 88 88 63.3 32.2 39 31.3 17 19 21 23 ?

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SNP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20032004200520062007200820092010201120122013 OCT 13

CAPE

PMX

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1 YEAR TC

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3 YEARS TC

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5 YEARS TC

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Market

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Market

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

JAN 11

FEB 11

APR 11

JUN 11

AUG 11

OCT

11

DEC

11

JAN 12

FEB 12

APR 12

JUN 12

AUG 12

OCT

12

DEC

12

JAN 13

FEB 13

APR 13

JUN 13

AUG 13

OCT

13

PMX

PMX

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Market

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

JAN 07

JUN 07

JAN 08

JUN 08

JAN 09

JUN 09

JAN 10

JUN 10

JAN 11

JUN 11

JAN 12

APR

12

AUG 12

NOV 12

JAN 13

APR

13

JUN 13

SEP 13

OCT

13

CAPE

PMX

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MARKET REPORT

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Volatility

PANAMAX

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Volatility

Capesize

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Volatility

Capesize

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Volatility

Panamax

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AnalysisAnalysis

AnalysisAnalysis

Many brokers, chrts and ows are asking Many brokers, chrts and ows are asking ‘’‘’

Will the Will the market go up? Or down ? market go up? Or down ? ‘’‘’

Answer: UP! Answer: UP! ‐‐

50%50%DOWN!DOWN!‐‐

50%50%

World is changing every dayWorld is changing every day……

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Analysis

Earth 1970

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Analysis

Earth 2013

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Analysis

AnalysisAnalysis

Question Question ‘’‘’

What do you suggest me to choose? Pmx What do you suggest me to choose? Pmx or cape ? or cape ? ‘’‘’

Answer: Pls tell me everything about :Answer: Pls tell me everything about :

your characteryour character……

( stable or volatile )( stable or volatile )

your budgetyour budget……

( as capes are not for everybody( as capes are not for everybody……))

your visionyour vision……

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END

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