Case Study: Ivan - September 2004

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Case Study: Ivan - September 2004. Jared Klein – SUNY-Albany. 300 hPa Analyses : 1200 UTC 16 September 2004. Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s −1 ), and div (10 −5 s −1 ). 300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km) − 1 (3 h) − 1 ], θ (K), and wind barbs (kt). 1.0° GFS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Case Study: Ivan - September 2004

    Jared Klein SUNY-Albany

  • 300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 16 September 2004300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)1.0 GFSPrecipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s1), and div (105 s1)

  • 300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 17 September 2004Precipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s1), and div (105 s1)300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)1.0 GFSFrontogenesis in jet-entrance regionConfluent flow in equatorward jet-entrance region

  • 300 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004Strengthening downstream ULJ and ridge300 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)1.0 GFSStrong frontogenesis in jet-entrance regionPrecipitable water (mm), 300 hPa h (dam), wind speed (m s1), and div (105 s1)

  • 925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 16 September 2004925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)WSI radar, 925 hPa e (K) and wind barbs (kt)Pre-existing baroclinic zoneSymmetric reflectivity structure1.0 GFS

  • 925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 17 September 2004925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)WSI radar, 925 hPa e (K) and wind barbs (kt)Northeastward extension of precip field along baroclinic zone1.0 GFSBand of frontogenesis along baroclinic zone

  • 925 hPa Analyses: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004925 hPa frontogenesis [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1], (K), and wind barbs (kt)WSI radar, 925 hPa e (K) and wind barbs (kt)Highest reflectivity near nose of LLJ/e ridge axis1.0 GFSStrong frontogenesis along warm frontal zone

  • 925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0000 UTC 18 September 2004Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004QQnQsRadar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascentRadar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004WSI radarQs divcon couplet within thermal troughridgeQ vectors (1010 K m1 s1 beginning at 2.5 1011), (K) contoured in green, and Q divcon (1015 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colorsQn divcon bands within frontal zone1.0 GFS

  • 925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 0600 UTC 18 September 2004Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004QQnQsRadar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004Highest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascentRadar at 0600 UTC 18 September 2004WSI radarQ vectors (1010 K m1 s1 beginning at 2.5 1011), (K) contoured in green, and Q divcon (1015 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colors1.0 GFS

  • 925 hPa Q Vector Diagnosis: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004Radar at 1200 UTC 17 September 2004Radar at 0000 UTC 18 September 2004Radar at 1200 UTC 18 September 2004QQnQsWSI radarQ vectors (1010 K m1 s1 beginning at 2.5 1011), (K) contoured in green, and Q divcon (1015 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colors1.0 GFSHighest reflectivity near strongest QG forcing for ascent

  • Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 0000 UTC 18 September 2004Deep frontogenesis tilting toward cold air w/height925500 hPa layer-avg Fn vectors (1010 K m1 s1), (K) contoured in green, and Fn divcon (1015 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colorsFn magnitude [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1] shaded in greenblue, RH shaded in orange, (K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (m s1), and
  • Cross Section of Fn Magnitude: 1200 UTC 18 September 2004Deep frontogenesis tilting toward cold air w/height925500 hPa layer-avg Fn vectors (1010 K m1 s1), (K) contoured in green, and Fn divcon (1015 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colors1.0 GFSFn magnitude [K (100 km)1 (3 h)1] shaded in greenblue, RH shaded in orange, (K) contoured in gray, wind barbs (m s1), and
  • Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary6-h precipitation (in) ending at 0600 UTC 18 September 20040000 UTC 18 September 2004NPVU QPEFlow of tropical air into surface boundaryFn vectors (1010 K m1 s1 beginning at 1.0 1010), (K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn divcon (1014 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colors~0.6 surface data0600 UTC 18 September 2004

  • Heaviest 6-h precip along and on cold side of surface boundary6-h precipitation (in) ending at 1200 UTC 18 September 20040600 UTC 18 September 2004NPVU QPEFlow of tropical air into surface boundaryFn vectors (1010 K m1 s1 beginning at 1.0 1010), (K) contoured in green, streamlines contoured in black, and Fn divcon (1014 K m2 s1) shaded in coolwarm colors~0.6 surface data1200 UTC 18 September 2004