Carbon, Energy and Manufacturing Tim Gutowski MIT April 22, 2010 · 2013. 10. 30. · Carbon...
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Carbon, Energy and Manufacturing Tim Gutowski MIT April 22, 2010
Transcript of Carbon, Energy and Manufacturing Tim Gutowski MIT April 22, 2010 · 2013. 10. 30. · Carbon...
Carbon, Energy and Manufacturing
Tim Gutowski MIT
April 22, 2010
Outline
1. Carbon Algebra
2. Mfg: 5 Big Pieces
3. Mfg: the other 44%
4. Technology Evaluation and “pampered products”
Carbon emissions
Carbon = Population × GWPPop
×EnergyGWP
×CarbonEnergy
ΔCarbonCarbon
= +1% + 2% −1.25% − 0.25% = +1.5%
These are rough averages over the last 3 decades, data taken or calculated from Pacala & Socolow, Science 2004
Business as Usual (BAU)
2000 2050
CO
2
100
200
1.4%
IPCC 2050 Target*
2000 2050
CO
2
100
200
50
1.4%
1.4%
ΔT<2.5C CO2< 450ppm
*Similar to “Blue Map” of IEA
IEA, 2008
Procrastination
2000 2050
CO
2
100
200
50
T
T = June 2012
1
i=12.5%
Worldwide CO2
Allwood, et al 2010
McKinsey 2004
The FIVE BIG PIECES of Manufacturing
Allwood, et al 2010
World Historical Data
Dahmus & Gutowski, 2010
Pig Iron Aluminum
Carbon = Quantity × 1eco − efficiency
ΔQQ
>Δee
ΔQQ
<Δee
Dahmus & Gutowski, 2010
Dahmus & Gutowski, 2010
Coal Prices increase significantly in the 1970’s
Iron Ore Prices increase significantly in the 1970’s
To Reduce Carbon by Half; Partitioning between Sectors
(Hypothesis)
Target for Mfg Targets for Transportation & Buildings
Ashby 2009
Ref Allwood, 2009
What about the other 44%?
Opportunities for the other 44%:
• Process efficiency • Mat’l Efficiency: Recycling/Remfg • Greening of the Grid • Supply chain reconfiguration • NEW PRODUCTS TO REDUCE
CARBON
Process Efficiency Opportunities
Gutowski et al, 2010
20 Products in the United States
Dahmus & Gutowski, 2007
Trends in Product Design
Dahmus & Gutowski, 2007
Ashby, 2009
Carbon optimal supply chains
• Competitive Supply Chains
– eg. Notebook Computer
• Cooperative Supply Chains
– eg. Worldwide Photovoltaic
Notebook Computer mfg in, and air freighted from China
788 kgCO2/kWh 578 kgCO2/kWh
Colon, 2010
It would pay to bring mfg back to the US For < $100/tCO2
After Kawajiri (AIST, Japan), Install PV where sun is good and grid is bad. Mfg where the grid is good (i.e. low CO2/kWh)
Are we going to be cooperative or competitive?
Technology Evaluation
• Will a new technology save energy? • Will a new technology reduce CO2? • Will a new technology contribute
quickly?
Energy to make SWNT “HiPco” Process 2CO →CO2 + C
Nikolaev et al 1999
HiPco Process Estimates
Gutowski & Liow 2010 IEEE
SWNT Energy Paradox
• One of the most energy intensive materials known to humankind
• Less than 1% of the mfg cost (Healy, Isaacs, 2008)
Problem
• Most new technologies are not evaluated for their large scale effects on the planet
• They are evaluated for cost using usually narrow boundaries
• Energy payback is calculated using very favorable conditions
“Pampered Products”
The Sustainability “Revolution”
• Parallel with “Quality Revolution”
• Build Sustainability In
• Interdisciplinary teams
• Concurrent Evaluation
• But, this all awaits incentives…
“Pampered Technologies”
• Technology development guidance • Life Cycle Perspective • Large boundaries include:
– nature – human behavior – growth
• “guidance with room to grow”
