POB. ACTUALCALCULO DE POBLACIN ACTUAL

1MINIMOS CUADRADOS-Proyeccin lineala=pi - btib=NtiPi - tiPiP=a + btNNti2 - (ti)2

Donde:

N=Numero total de datosti=Suma de los aos con informacinPi=Suma del nmero de habitantest=Ao de proyeccin de poblacin

NAO (t)POB. (p)t2p2(t)(p)119504289380250018395521836355021960519438416002697763610180240319705263388090027699169103681104198057173920400326840891131966051990763339601005826268915189670620007699400000059274601153980007201097484040100950235041959348013860455432744560031831720990412710

t=2015b=( 7 )( 90412710 )-( 13860 )( 45543 )=84.85( 7 )( 27445600 )-( 13860 )

a=45543 - ( 84.85 )( 13860 )=-161489.797

P=-161,489.79 + ( 85 )( 2015 )= 9476 HABITANTES9476FACTOR DE CORRELACINr=

r=( 7 )( 90412710 )-( 13860 )( 45543 )=0.957[( 7 )( 27445600 ) - ( 13860 )] [( 7 )( 318317209 ) - ( 45543 )]

Segn la bibliografa un factor mayor a 0.75 es correcto

2METODO ARITMTICO

Pf= Pa + INI=Pa - PpnDonde:Pf=Poblacin futuraI=Incremento medio anualPp=Poblacin pasadaPa=Poblacin actualn=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pa y PpN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)19504289I=9748 - 4289= 90.98 Habitantes/ao196051942010 - 19501970526319805717Pf=9748 + ( 90.98 )( 5 )= 10203 HABITANTES19907633102032000769920109748

Ao=2015

3MTODO GEOMTRICO

Log Pf=Log Pa + N Log (1 + r)Log (1 + r)=Log Pf - Log Pa10Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin actualN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)Log. Pob.DIFERENCIALog(1 + r) DIF./10No. DE DIF.195042893.63236196051943.715500.083150.008311197052633.721230.005730.000572198057173.757170.035930.003593199076333.882700.125530.012554200076993.886430.003740.000375201097483.988920.102480.0102560.03566

Ao=2015Promedio de Log(1 + r)=0.00594

Pf=Anti Log ( 3.98892 + 5( 0.00594 )= 10439 HABITANTES10439

4MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES

Pf=Pa + Pa(I/100)(N)

Donde:

Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin ActualI=Incremento promedio anualN=Nmero de aos en el periodo

NAO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTO% DE INCREMENTO11950428921960519490521.10%319705263691.33%4198057174548.63%519907633191633.51%620007699660.86%720109748204926.61%92.05%

Ao=2015I=92.05 %= 1.53 %60

Pf=9748 + ( 9748 )( 1.53/100 )( 5 )= 10496 HABITANTES10496

5MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS

Pf=Pa(1+a)^r

Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin del ltimo censo a=Promedio de incrementos relativos decenales

AO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTOINCREMENTO DECENALNo. DE INC. DEC.19504289196051949050.2110119705263690.01332198057174540.086331990763319160.3351420007699660.008652010974820490.266160.9205

Ao=2015r=0.5

a=0.9205= 0.1536

Pf=9748 ( 1 + 0.153 )^0.5= 10470 HABITANTES10470

CONCENTRADO DE RESULTADOSMETODOHABITANTESMINIMOS CUADRADOS9476METODO ARITMTICO10203MTODO GEOMTRICO10439MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES10496MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS10470

-Se elimina el mayor y el menor de los valores y,se promedian los tres restantes

por lo tanto la poblacin actualizada para el ao 2015 es:

Poblacin=10371Habitantes

Pgina &P de &N

C. VICTOR BARRITA MARTINEZPRESIDENTE MUNICIPALCALCUL ING.:HUMBERTO AVENDAO GARCACED. PROF.: 7927315

PROY. DE POB.POBLACIN DE PROYECTO

En base a la cantidad de habitantes de la localidad se propone un periodo de10 aos para la poblacin de proyecto

1MINIMOS CUADRADOS-Proyeccin lineala=pi - btib=NtiPi - tiPiP=a + btNNti2 - (ti)2

Donde:

N=Numero total de datosti=Suma de los aos con informacinPi=Suma del nmero de habitantest=Ao de proyeccin de poblacin

NAO (t)POB. (p)t2p2(t)(p)1196051943841600269776361018024021970526338809002769916910368110319805717392040032684089113196604199076333960100582626891518967052000769940000005927460115398000620109748404010095023504195934807201510371406022510755764120897565139255162527703325407479329102946725

t=2025b=( 7 )( 102946725 )-( 13925 )( 51625 )=99.09( 7 )( 27703325 )-( 13925 )

a=51625 - ( 99.09 )( 13925 )=-189744.627

P=-189,744.62 + ( 99 )( 2025 )= 10914 HABITANTES10914FACTOR DE CORRELACINr=

r=( 7 )( 102946725 )-( 13925 )( 51625 )=0.962[( 7 )( 27703325 ) - ( 13925 )] [( 7 )( 407479329 ) - ( 51625 )]

2METODO ARITMTICO

Pf= Pa + INI=Pa - PpnDonde:Pf=Poblacin futuraI=Incremento medio anualPp=Poblacin pasadaPa=Poblacin actualn=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pa y PpN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)19605194I=10371 - 5194= 94.13 Habitantes/ao197052632015 - 19601980571719907633Pf=10371 + ( 94.13 )( 10 )= 11313 HABITANTES200076991131320109748201510371

Ao=2025

3MTODO GEOMTRICO

Log Pf=Log Pa + N Log (1 + r)Log (1 + r)=Log Pf - Log Pa10Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin actualN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)Log. Pob.DIFERENCIALog(1 + r) DIF./10No. DE DIF.196051943.71550197052633.721230.005730.000571198057173.757170.035930.003592199076333.882700.125530.012553200076993.886430.003740.000374201097483.988920.102480.0102552015103714.015820.026910.0026960.03003

Ao=2025Promedio de Log(1 + r)=0.00501

Pf=Anti Log ( 4.01582 + 10( 0.00501 )= 11638 HABITANTES11638

4MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES

Pf=Pa + Pa(I/100)(N)

Donde:

Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin ActualI=Incremento promedio anualN=Nmero de aos en el periodo

NAO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTO% DE INCREMENTO119605194219705263691.33%3198057174548.63%419907633191633.51%520007699660.86%620109748204926.61%72015103716236.39%77.34%

Ao=2025I=77.34 %= 1.41 %55

Pf=10371 + ( 10371 )( 1.41/100 )( 10 )= 11830 HABITANTES11830

5MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS

Pf=Pa(1+a)^r

Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin del ltimo censo a=Promedio de incrementos relativos decenales

AO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTOINCREMENTO DECENALNo. DE INC. DEC.1960519419705263690.01331198057174540.086321990763319160.3351320007699660.008642010974820490.266152015103716230.063960.7734

Ao=2025r=1

a=0.7734= 0.1296

Pf=10371 ( 1 + 0.129 )^1.0= 11708 HABITANTES11708

CONCENTRADO DE RESULTADOSMETODOHABITANTESMINIMOS CUADRADOS10914METODO ARITMTICO11313MTODO GEOMTRICO11638MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES11830MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS11708

-Se elimina el mayor y el menor de los valores y,se promedian los tres restantes

por lo tanto la poblacin estimada para el ao 2025 es:

Poblacin=11553Habitantes

Pgina &P de &N

C. VICTOR BARRITA MARTNEZPRESIDENTE MUNICIPALCALCUL ING.:HUMBERTO AVENDAO GARCA

EJEMPLOPOBLACIN DE PROYECTO

En base a la cantidad de habitantes de la localidad se propone un periodo de10 aos para la poblacin de proyecto

1MINIMOS CUADRADOS-Proyeccin lineala=pi - btib=NtiPi - tiPiP=a + btNNti2 - (ti)2

Donde:

N=Numero total de datosti=Suma de los aos con informacinPi=Suma del nmero de habitantest=Ao de proyeccin de poblacin

NAO (t)POB. (p)t2p2(t)(p)11990458.43960100210130.5691221621995478.83980025229249.4495520632000499.24000000249200.6499840042005519.64020025269984.1610417987990195615960150958564.83907620

t=2026b=( 4 )( 3907620 )-( 7990 )( 1956 )=4.08( 4 )( 15960150 )-( 7990 )

a=1956 - ( 4.08 )( 7990 )=-7660.804

P=-7,660.80 + ( 4 )( 2026 )= 606 HABITANTES605.28FACTOR DE CORRELACINr=

r=( 4 )( 3907620 )-( 7990 )( 1956 )=1.000[( 4 )( 15960150 ) - ( 7990 )] [( 4 )( 958565 ) - ( 1956 )]

2METODO ARITMTICO

Pf= Pa + INI=Pa - PpnDonde:Pf=Poblacin futuraI=Incremento medio anualPp=Poblacin pasadaPa=Poblacin actualn=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pa y PpN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)1990500I=544 - 500= 2.93 Habitantes/ao19954202005 - 19902000492Pf=544 + ( 2.93 )( 21 )= 606 HABITANTES2005544

Ao=2026

3MTODO GEOMTRICO

Log Pf=Log Pa + N Log (1 + r)Log (1 + r)=Log Pf - Log Pa10Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin actualN=Diferencia de tiempo en aos entre Pf y Pa

AO (t)POB. (p)Log. Pob.DIFERENCIALog(1 + r) DIF./10No. DE DIF.19905002.6989719954202.62325-0.07572-0.00757120004922.691970.068720.00687220055442.735600.043630.0043630.00366

Ao=2026Promedio de Log(1 + r)=0.00122

Pf=Anti Log ( 2.73560 + 21( 0.00122 )= 578 HABITANTES578

4MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES

Pf=Pa + Pa(I/100)(N)

Donde:

Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin ActualI=Incremento promedio anualN=Nmero de aos en el periodo

NAO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTO% DE INCREMENTO1199050021995420-80-16.00%320004927217.14%420055445210.57%11.71%

Ao=2026I=11.71 %= 0.78 %15

Pf=544 + ( 544 )( 0.78/100 )( 21 )= 634 HABITANTES634

5MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS

Pf=Pa(1+a)^r

Donde:Pf=Poblacin futuraPa=Poblacin del ltimo censo a=Promedio de incrementos relativos decenales

AO (t)POB. (p)INCREMENTOINCREMENTO DECENALNo. DE INC. DEC.1960519419705263690.01331198057174540.086321990763319160.3351320007699660.008642010974820490.266152015103716230.063960.7734

Ao=2025r=1

a=0.7734= 0.1296

Pf=10371 ( 1 + 0.129 )^1.0= 11708 HABITANTES11708

CONCENTRADO DE RESULTADOSMETODOHABITANTESMINIMOS CUADRADOS605.28METODO ARITMTICOERROR:#REF!MTODO GEOMTRICO578MTODO GEOMTRICO POR PORCENTAJES634MTODO DE LA FORMULA DE MALTHUS11708

-Se elimina el mayor y el menor de los valores y,se promedian los tres restantes

por lo tanto la poblacin actualizada para el ao 2015 es:

Pob.=ERROR:#REF!Habitantes

DOTACINDOTACINa)CONSUMO HUMANODe acuerdo al ltimo conteo de poblacin del INEGI

-Residencial: 2.32 %-Medio: 12.74 %-Popular: 84.94%Ejutla de crespo tiene una temperatura media anual de 21.1C y de acuerdo a la sig.tabla de la CNAel tipo de clima para la regin se establece como "SEMICALIDO"Con el dato anterior y la siguiente tabla se determina el consumo domestico parala localidad de Ejutla de Crespo.En ejutla de crespo se tiene una poblacin popular y con un clima semiclidose toma un consumo domesticoDotacin=205l/h/daPara la poblacin de proyecto=11553habitantes

Demanda actual=(11553 hab.)(130 l/hab./da)=2,368,365l/daGASTO MEDIO

Qm=P.D=( 11,553 )( 205 )=27.41l/s8640086400GASTO MXIMO DIARIOCVD=1.4

QMD=Qm X CVD =( 27.41 )( 1.40 )=38.38l/sGASTO MXIMO HORARIOCVH=1.55

QMH=QMD X CVH =( 38.38 )( 1.55 )=59.48l/s

Pgina &P de &N

C. VICTOR BARRITA MARTNEZPRESIDENTE MUNICIPALCALCUL ING.:HUMBERTO AVENDAO GARCA

LINEA DE COND.

RED ABIERTAqe=QMHDISEO DE LA RED DE DISTRIBUCINLDt=kqeL=Longitud total de toda la redk=32.5735Para v= 1.20 m/s

CRUCE- ROTRAMOLONGITUD (m)qe(lps)0.0010037207Q2DIAMETRO (mm)KhfCOTASCARGADEAREALFICTICIAPROPIOTRIB.TOTALm3/STEORICOCOM.ADIM.kLQ2PIEZ.TERR.DISP

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