Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after...

30
Adaptive cycle and Panarchy

Transcript of Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after...

Page 1: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Adaptive cycle and Panarchy

Page 2: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Gunderson & Holling 2002

Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance

r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation)K=carrying capacity (competition, niche specialization) (mature to old-growth)Ω=release, new opportunities (disturbance)α=re-organization and recovery (new forest seeds in)

Complex system undergoes change through ‘adaptive cycle’

Page 3: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Metaphor Ecology Biological Psychological Economic

1 Exploitation Birth Development Growth

2 Conservation Maturity Sanity Consolidate

3 Release Death Madness Collapse

4 Reorganization Decay Healing Rebuild

1) Exploitation: rapid expansion, e.g., population grows.

2) Conservation: population reaches carrying capacity and stabilizes for a time.

3) Release: population declines due to a competitor, or changed conditions

4) Reorganization: certain members of the population are selected for their ability to survive despite the competitor or changed conditions that triggered the release.

Four stages of adaptive cycle

Page 4: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Adaptive cycle: four stagesr K

Ωα

r

K

Ωα

Page 5: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Three properties of adaptive cycle

Potential: the number and kinds of future options available (e.g. high levels of biodiversity provide more future options than low levels)

Connectedness: the degree to which a system can control its own destiny through internal controls, as distinct from being influenced by external variables

Resilience: how vulnerable a system is to unexpected disturbances and surprises that can exceed or break that control. The adaptive cycle is the process that accounts for both the stability and change in complex systems.

Page 6: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

There are ‘discontinuities’ in variables of interestDiscontinuities determine dominant scales

Page 7: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Adaptive cycles occur at multiple discontinuous scales in natural ecosystems

Tem

pora

l sca

le

Spatial scale

Page 8: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Panarchy

• A term adopted to better represent complex adaptive systems than ‘hierarchy’

• Hierarchy describes “top-down rule”

• Panarchy refers to a specific form of governance or rule (archy) that would encompass (pan) all others

Page 9: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

What is panarchy?

“The term [panarchy] was coined as an antithesis to the word hierarchy (literally, sacred rules). Our view is that panarchy is a framework of nature's rules, hinted at by the name of the Greek god of nature, Pan.”

Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling, Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature, Island Press, p.21, 2001.

Page 10: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Panarchy: all-encompassing nested set of adaptive cycles operating at discrete scales

(Gunderson and Holling 2001).

Page 11: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

7/10

These cycles connect with cycles ‘above’ and ‘below’ them in the hierarchy:

“Revolt" – this occurs when fast, small events overwhelm large, slow ones, as when a small fire in a forest spreads to the crowns of trees, then to another patch, and eventually the entire forest

“Remember" – this occurs when the potential accumulated and stored in the larger, slow levels influences the reorganization. For example, after a forest fire the processes and resources accumulated at a larger level slow the leakage of nutrients, and options for renewal draw from the seed bank, physical structures and surrounding species that form a biotic legacy.

Page 12: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Panarchy predicts discontinuities in adaptive cycles across scales

Page 13: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Allen, Craig R., et al. "Panarchy: Theory and Application." Ecosystems 17.4 (2014): 578-589.

Three Core Properties of Complex Systems that follow Panarchy Theory

Page 14: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Cup-and-ball model: changes to new stability domain through shift in variables or parameters

e.g., variable=species composition e.g., parameter=climate

Page 15: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Mann et al.

Chapman and Walsh

Global to arctic

Polaramplification

Page 16: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Permafrost is thawingin many places,

not just southern margins

Page 17: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Four mechanisms affect permafrost thaw:

a)Active layer thickeningb)Talik formationc)Erosiond)Thermokarst development

Schuur et al. 2008

Positive feedback to atmospheric GHGs

Page 18: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Schuur et al. 2008

Frozen peat, Canada, SiberiaCryoturbated soil, thin peat, AlaskaMineral deposit, Siberia

Page 19: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Melting permafrostHudson Bay, CanadaScience Daily, Sept 2, 2008

Page 20: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Both the variables and the parameters are changing in the Arctic

e.g., variable=species composition e.g., parameter=climate

Page 21: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

IPCC FAR projected global warming

Page 22: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Mean Annual Temperature and Precipitation Predictions for BC

Page 23: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Four Impacts to Forests

1. Reduced snow pack

2. Increased forest fires

3. Forest dieback and species migrations

4. Forests shifted from net CO2 source to sink

Page 24: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

1. Dramatic decline in snowpack by 2040

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch11s11-5-3-5.html

Page 25: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

2. Increasing area burned annually in Canada2. Increasing area burned annually in Canada

Page 26: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

http://cfcg.forestry.ubc.ca/projects/climate-data/climatebc-and-bioclimatic-envelope-modelling/

3. Massive shifts in forest composition3. Massive shifts in forest composition

Page 27: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

4. Changed from CO2 sink to source

Page 28: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

New study shows declining productivity and carbon sequestration in Canadian boreal forest

NASA, Dec. 2011Pan, PNAS, 2012 28

Page 29: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

1. Increased forest fire frequency and severity due to warming and drying.

2. Increased disturbances due to insects and disease.

3. Potential ranges of species will move northward and upward in elevation.

4. New assemblages of species will occur in space and time.

5. Species may be unable to move into areas of suitable climate due to barriers to movement, slow migration rates, unsuitable growing substrate or lack of habitat.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change in ForestsBC Ministry of Forests

Page 30: Adaptive cycle and Panarchy. Gunderson & Holling 2002 Adaptive cycle of recovery (succession) after disturbance r=growth (pioneer; stand initiation) K=carrying.

Summary• Complex adaptive systems are inherently stable• Stable systems change but are homeostatic, like a dancer• Stables systems have resistance, where small disturbances are

contained, and resilience, where the system returns to the same stability domain

• Complex systems change through adaptive cycles• Adaptive cycles and panarchy are stabilizing characteristics• Positive feedbacks and crossing tipping points can lead to loss of

stability• Climate change could cause instability • Maintaining complexity will be crucial