20 Χρόνια Κινητής Τηλεφωνίας

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Καθηγητής Γιώργος Γιαγλής Αντιπρύτανης Οικονομικού Πανεπιστημίου Αθηνών 20 Χρόνια Κινητής Τηλεφωνίας στην Ελλάδα 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps [email protected], www.giaglis.eu

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My presentation at the 3rd Infocom Apps conference (talk at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsS0EwUw_dI&feature=share&list=UUtIHpySDCmOtsRAompFHkAw&utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=infocom_apps_1)

Transcript of 20 Χρόνια Κινητής Τηλεφωνίας

2. 2 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 3. , 3 1992: PANAFON STET ( Wind)( / )1993: 1995: SMS 1995: (200% COSMOTE 1998)180% 1997: 160% 1999: 97% 138,6% 2000 2007: 140%130,9% 120% 2000: WAP100% 2001: GPRS (2,5G)80%2002: MMS60%2003: 3G40%2006: HSDPA20% 2008 2012: 0% 2012: 1997 2005 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4G LTE 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 4. 4 50 70%4520,1 20,560%4020,5 58% (. )3520,6 54% 50%20,850%3021,445% 21,840%2540%35%30%20 29%15 20%27,2 241020,916,9 10%1459,111,300% 20042005 20062007 200820092010: : 2010 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 5. (ARPU AMOU)5AMOU ARPU 350 35 30,9 31,6 29,5 300 27,41 27,53024,8 239,5 250 227,2 25 21,7 204,9 20016,9 20 15,8 145,1 148,8 152,2 15,015,1 150 133,7 15 122,2164,7 104,591 100 10 50500 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*: * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 6. 6 . 5.000 80%-35% 4.500 70% 4.000 60% 3.500 50% 3.010 3.000 40% 2007 - 2012 . 2.500 30% 2.000 20% 0% 1.500 10% 1.000 0%-2% -1,9% 500 -10%-4% 0 -20% 2012*1997200319931994199519961998199920002001200220042005200620072008200920102011 -6% -8%-10%-10,0%-12% : * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 7. 7 EBITDA EBITDA . EBITDA 2.000 80% -38%1.800 70%1.600 60% 1.400 50% EBITDA 1.200 1.073 40% 2007 - 2012 . 1.000 30%800 20%600 10% 400 0% 0%-1%200 -10%-2%0 -20%-3% -2,0% -200 -30%-4% 2006 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 20112012* -5%-6%-7%-8%-9% -10%-9,0% : * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 8. 8 . % % EBITDA600120%500100%40080% . 30060%20040%10020% 0 0%: * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 9. 9 6.5% 1993 2012 >1 . (% ) 8,0% 7,2% 7,3% 7,3% 7,3% 7,1% 7,1% 7,0% 7,0% 8,0% 6,6% 6,8% 7,0% 6,3% 7,0% 6,0%5,6%6,0%4,7%3,5% 5,0% 5,0% 4,0%3,2%4,0% 3,0%3,0%2,0%2,0% 2,0%1,4%2,0%1,0% 1,0%0,6% 0,0% 0,1% 1,5% 1,0% 0,0% 0,0% 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012: * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 10. 10 2004 2012 ( ) 75% 0,227 0,25 0,115 0,1100,1100,2 0,110 0,090 0,081 0,150,0800,0700,10,080 0,070 0,070 . 0,069 0,05 0,058 0,0660,060 0 0,0582004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012* 0,000 0,100 0,200 0,300: , Telecoms Matrix, Q2 2012,Merrill Lynch & Bank of America * 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 11. 11 (36-48%) ( ) 40%36% 37% 37% 35% 30% 28% 25%26% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%20072008 20092010201120123o Infocom Mobile & Apps 12. , 12: 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 13. 13 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 14. Big Data 14 92% 2010 2015 26 6.3 exabytes exabytes2010-2015 1,50% 2015 0,40% 74,70% 6 6,3 6,10%Video 5Web/Data 4P2P3,8 20,90% 3M2MGaming 2 2,266,40%VoIP 1 1,2 0,240,6 0 20102011 2012 2013 2014 2015 : Cisco Visual Networking Index, 2011 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 15. m-apps 15:Top mobile internet trends,Matt Murphy, Mary Meeker,Kleiner Prkins Caufield Byers, 2011 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 16. Mobile Traffic 16: Internet Trends, Mary Meeker,Kleiner Prkins Caufield Byers, 20123o Infocom Mobile & Apps 17. 17 1.21% 10% :World Economic Forum, Economist 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 18. 18 (Q1 2012)100% 89%88% 90%87%81%80% 80% 75% 73% 71% 70% 67% 70% 66% 62% 60% 59% 58% 59% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%:European Telecoms Matrix Q2 2012,Merrill Lynch & Bank of America 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 19. 19 SIM (2011) 200% 181% 180% 171% 163%156% 160%151% 149% 148%146% 138% 139% 135% 133% 131% 131% 140% 130% 128% 127% 126% 126% 126%122% 120% 120% 119% 119% 120%114% 112% 108% 107% 101% 98% 100%80%60%40%20% 0%: GSMA 2012 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 20. 20 97,50%( - 2012)87,30%100,00% 80,40% 90,00%65,40% 64,80%63,90% 80,00% 60,00% 70,00%49,50% 49,20%43,10% 60,00% 42,70%42,00% 41,40%40,10%36,50% 38,70% 35,00% 50,00%32,30% 31,30%29,70% 29,60%29,10% 27,50% 40,00%21,20% 19,10%17,20% 14,40%14,10% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00%:2011 Telecommunication Marketand Regulatory Developments,European Commission3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 21. 21 1%1% 1% 1%2% 2% 100%3% 4% 5%7% 8% 8% 10%11% 11% 12%90% 12%12%13%12%16%80%16%70%60%50%94% 91% 89%88% 87%86%84%83%40%81%76%72%30%20%10%0%2000 2001 2002 20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 SMS & MMS Data: European Telecoms Matrix Q2 2012,Merrill Lynch & Bank of America3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 22. , 22Data % (2011)30% 28%25%25%21% 20% 20%20%19%18% 18% 17% 17%16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15%15% 13% 13% 13% 13%12%11% 10% 10%10% 9% 9% 8% 8%5% 5% 3% 0% : GSMA 2012 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 23. 23 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 24. 24 operators Customer ownership being lost data ; ; Dumb Pipe Commodity product Low revenue growth potential Trouble Ahead! Large capital outlays 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps 25. ; 25 (/ OTP) (. network sharing) Process efficiency 3o Infocom Mobile & Apps