197-7 days_3-3-17

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  • 1

    1973 2017

    ISSN:22414878

    1

    ( ) 2017. 92,9 () 95,1 2017. 12 . , 2017, 1 .

    , : , , -0,1, -5,5, -11,0 -14,4 . 5,1 .

    1: ( )

    : () (), () Eurobank Research.

    1 2015 . : 1 2015 2017, . , 0,3 . 41 3,4 ...( )

    EurobankErgasiasA.E("urobank") , , . , . , , . Eurobank. Eurobank. ( ) ,, , . , , Eurobank . urobank Eurobank.

    . .

    [email protected]

  • 197 3 2017

    2

    75 2014 (105,2 ) 2 , . . , 10 2017 ( 2 42 ).

    2: ( , )

    : () (), ()

    Eurobank Research.

    2 2 . 2017 ( 2 3 ). , , -5,5 , 2015 ( 3 ) 12 . , , -11,0 , 2015 ( 28 2016).

    -0,9% 2016 3,7% 2016. -1,8% 0,0%.

    (), ( ) -0,9% 2016 3,7% 2016.

    -1,8% 0,0%. , 2016 : 1,8% -2,5%, -4,2% -0,2%, -2,7% 3,2%, , -5,7% -0,6%, -5,1% -1,5%, -0,9% -1,7%, , -0,8% -0,1% 3,3% -3,7%.

    3: ( % )

    : () (), () Eurobank Research.

    3, 4 2016. , 1,6% 3,0% 3 2016. , -0,4% 2,6% . . () 0,3% (-0,4%) 4 2016 2,2% (0,9%) 3 2016. , (69,9% 2015).

    2017 2017 ( ), 4 2016 1 . .

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    3

    PMI , 6 ( 2017) / 50 ().

    Markit PMI, 6 2017. 47,7 46,6 2017. 2 16 .

    4: PMI - ( )

    : () Markit, () Eurobank Research.

    5 PMI, , , , , 2017. Markit, - .

    () 130,9 2017 132,1 2016. (-0,6 ) (-1,1 ). 0,4 .

    5: ( )

    : () (), () Eurobank Research.

    () 211,9 2017 213,8 2016. (-0,7 ), (-0,8 ) (-0,4 ).

    6: ( )

    : () (), () Eurobank Research.

    : ()

    , .

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    4

    1:

    ( )

    4 (2016) +0,3% (+2,2% (2016Q3) +0,5% (2015Q4)). % -0,4% (+0,9% (2016Q3) +1,6% (2015Q4)).

    . (, %)

    : 1996Q12016Q4

    :

    : +0,8%

    : +2,4%

    : +6,8% (2003Q4)

    : -10,2% (2011Q1)

    : =

    : 14/2/2016

    . .: 6/3/2017

    ( )

    1996Q4-2016Q4 2013Q42016Q4

    ( )

    (2016) 23,0% (23,0% (10/2016) 24,5% (11/2015)) -1,5 (-1,5 (10/2016) -1,4 (11/2015)). 3,684 . (3,685 . (10/2016) 3,635 . (11/2015)) 1,100 . (1,102 (10/2016) 1,177 . (11/2015)).

    , %

    : 1/2004-11/2016

    :

    : 16,3%

    : 12,5%

    : 27,9% (7/2013)

    : 7,3% (5/2008)

    : = ,

    = ,

    = ,

    = . .

    : 9/2/2017

    . .: 9/3/2017

    11/200711/2016 11/201311/2016

    (2017) (%) +1,5% (+0,3% (12/2016) -0,1% (1/2016)) +0,2% (0,0% (12/2016) -0,9% (1/2016)). (%) +1,2% (0,0% (12/2016) -0,7% (1/2016)) -0,7% (-0,8% (12/2016) -1,6% (1/2016)).

    , (, %)

    : 1/1997-1/2017

    :

    : 2,5%

    : 3,0%

    : 6,6% (1/1997)

    : -2,9% (11/2013)

    : =

    : 15/2/2017

    . .: 10/3/2017

    1/20021/2017 1/20141/2017

    : () (..), () Eurobank Research.

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    2: ( 12 )

    (12/2013 - 12/2016) (12/2013 - 12/2016) : 20/2/2017

    (, , ) - 2016 -1,1 (12/2015-11/2016: -1,0 1/2015-12/2015: +0,2).

    - 2016 -16,6 (12/2015-11/2016: -16,5 1/2015-12/2015: -17,2).

    (, ) -

    2016 +15,3 (12/2015-11/2016: +15,1 1/2015-12/2015: +16,9).

    -

    2016 +11,2 (12/2015-11/2016: +11,2 1/2015-12/2015: +12,1).

    (. & ., , . & . . . .) -

    2016 +0,8 (12/2015-11/2016: +1,0 1/2015-12/2015: +1,0).

    -

    2016 , -1,8 (12/2015-11/2016: -1,8 1/2015-12/2015: -1,6).

    ( ) -

    2016 -0,6 (12/2015-11/2016: -0,5 1/2015-12/2015: -0,5).

    -

    2016 -0,8 (12/2015-11/2016: -0,7 1/2015-12/2015: -0,6).

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : 23/3/2017

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    3:

    : 1/2005-1/2017 : 1/20141/2017 : 28/2/2017

    () (2017) 211,9 (12/2016: 213,8 1/2016: 226,5 ).

    -6,4% (12/2016: -6,1% 1/2016: -4,4%).

    () (2017)

    18,4 (12/2016: 19,1 1/2016: 23,3 ).

    -21,3% (12/2016: -19,7% 1/2016: +0,9%).

    () (2017)

    93,8 (12/2016: 94,6 1/2016: 96,1 ).

    -2,4% (12/2016: -1,9% 1/2016: -6,6%).

    () (2017)

    86,7 (12/2016: 87,0 1/2016: 93,7 ).

    -7,5% (12/2016: -7,6% 1/2016: -3,6%). : 2016 .

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : 27/3/2017

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    4:

    : 1/2005-1/2017 : 1/20141/2017 : 28/2/2017

    () (2017) ( , ) ( ) 156,6 (12/2016: 157,5 1/2016: 156,0 ).

    +0,4% (12/2016: -0,2% 1/2016: -19,9%).

    () (2017)

    ( ) 11,1 (12/2016: 10,7 1/2016: 10,0 ).

    +11,0% (12/2016: +3,1% 1/2016: -18,3%).

    () (2017)

    ( ) (, ) 20,0 (12/2016: 20,6 1/2016: 19,9 ).

    +0,8% (12/2016: -2,7% 1/2016: -11,9%).

    () (2017)

    ( ) 99,7 (12/2016: 100,8 1/2016: 102,3 ).

    -2,6% (12/2016: -1,4% 1/2016: -18,4%). : 2016 . .

    : () (), () Eurobank Research. : 27/3/2017

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    5: - ,

    : 2/2002-2/2017 : 2/20142/2017 : 27/2/2017

    (2017) (92,9 ()) -2,2 (2017) +3,5 .

    (: 40%) (2017)

    (-5,1 ) -0,1 (2017) +5,1 .

    (: 30%) (2017)

    (1,9 ) +5,1 (2017) +25,0 .

    (: 20%) (2017)

    (-73,3 ) -5,5 (2017) -6,5 .

    (: 5%) (2017)

    (1,9 ) -11,0 (2017) -1,3 .

    (: 5%) (2017)

    (-59,7 ) -14,4 (2017) -22,2 .

    : () (European Commission), () Eurobank Research. : 30/3/2017

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    :3/3/2017.

    x. .

    y (1),(7) (yoy,%) 0.2% 2015 0.4% 2014 3.2% 2013 7.3% 2012 9.1% 2011 5.5% 2010 184.5 184.9 184.2 190.4 205.4 226.0 175.7 177.9 180.7 191.2 207.0 226.0 % 24.9% 26.5% 27.5% 24.4% 17.9% 12.7% (yoy,%) 0.8% 2016 1.7% 2015 1.3% 2014 0.9% 2013 1.5% 2012 3.3% 2011 0.0% 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 1.0% 3.1% 1.4% 2015 1.9% 2014 2.3% 2013 0.4% 2012 0.8% 2011 0.8% 2010 q 0.3% 2016Q4 2.2% 2016Q3 0.5% 2015Q4 0.1% 2014Q4 2.2% 2013Q4 4.3% 2012Q4 (qoq,%) 0.4% 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% m % 23.0% 16 23.0% 16 24.5% 15 25.9% 14 27.7% 13 26.4% 12 (yoy,%) 1.2% 17 0.0% 16 0.7% 16 2.8% 15 1.5% 14 0.2% 13 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 2.8% 1.4% 0.0% q 0.5% 2016Q3 0.7% 2016Q2 1.0% 2015Q3 0.5% 2014Q3 3.4% 2013Q3 0.0% 2012Q3....() q (1),(7) (yoy,%) 5.1% 2016Q3 1.2% 2016Q2 4.1% 2015Q3 0.2% 2014Q3 1.8% 2013Q3 8.3% 2012Q3. 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 3.1% 1.2% 14.6%.() 12.6% 17.9% 4.4% 6.7% 1.9% 32.7%.() 10.2% 3.2% 7.0% 9.7% 4.3% 0.2%.() 12.0% 4.9% 14.1% 5.4% 0.3% 11.7%..() q (4),(7) (yoy,%) 0.2% 2016Q3 1.8% 2016Q2 2.6% 2015Q3 0.0% 2014Q3 0.0% 2013Q3 0.7% 2012Q3..() 2.1% 2.3% 4.7% 3.1% 0.1% 1.8%..() 0.6% 4.5% 0.6% 2.5% 5.3% 4.6%..() 0.4% 4.6% 1.0% 1.8% 5.0% 3.8% m (1),(7) . 3683.8 16 3685.1 16 3634.7 15 3540.8 14 3484.5 13 3585.0 12 1100.1 1101.9 1176.6 1235.8 1334.1 1289.1 4783.9 4787.0 4811.3 4776.6 4818.6 4874.1 3252.3 3249.2 3259.0 3338.7 3348.3 3341.9 q (2),(7) (yoy,%) 0.7% 2016Q4 1.5% 2016Q3 5.1% 2015Q4 5.5% 2014Q4 9.6% 2013Q4 12.8% 2012Q4.() m (1),(7) 1.4% 16 5.7% 16 7.2% 15 30.9% 14 36.2% 13 66.6% 12(PMI) m (6),(7) 47.7 17 0.0 17 48.4 16 48.4 15 51.3 14 43.0 13 (1),(7) (yoy,%) 1.8% 16 1.7% 16 6.6% 15 2.6% 14 1.6% 13 2.1% 12 13.5% 3.0% 0.7% 6.8% 10.5% 3.8% 1.4% 2.0% 0.3% 3.3% 6.3% 7.4% 0.9% 3.7% 0.3% 1.0% 5.7% 8.1% q (1),(7) 2.1% 2016Q4 3.0% 2016Q3 2.0% 2015Q4 0.3% 2014Q4 12.9% 2013Q4 5.5% 2012Q4. 0.1% 13.5% 8.5% 18.0% 9.0% 32.7%(+++) m (2),(7) 12m 1.1 16 1.0 16 0.2 15 2.9 14 3.7 13 7.3 12A.(1+2+3) 16.6 16.5 17.2 22.3 20.8 21.01. 2.8 2.9 4.2 6.3 6.9 8.32. 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.1 1.5 1.03. 13.6 13.5 12.6 13.8 12.4 11.7.(1+2+3) 15.3 15.1 16.9 18.3 15.7 13.81. 11.2 11.2 12.1 11.3 10.3 8.62. 3.4 3.3 4.5 6.9 5.6 5.93. 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.7.(1+2+3) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.81. 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.32., 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 2.9 1.33. 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.4.(1+2) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 1.8 1.01. 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.3 1.02. 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.0()% y (1),(7) % 7.5% 2015 3.6% 2014 13.2% 2013 8.8% 2012 10.3% 2011 11.2% 2010% 3.9% 0.4% 9.1% 3.8% 3.0% 5.3%% 177.4% 179.7% 177.4% 159.6% 172.1% 146.3%()A.() (5),(7) 4.2 17 54.0 16 47.9 16 42.8 16 37.8 16 31.9 16B.() 4.0 52.4 46.4 41.9 37.3 32.5(AB) 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.5 0.6.() 3.3 55.2 45.9 41.5 37.2 33.0.() 3.5 56.0 48.3 43.5 40.3 36.4() 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.0 3.1 3.4.() 1.0 4.4 7.4 6.5 5.4 3.8.() 0.7 2.0 3.6 3.6 1.9 1.0() 0.8 1.1 2.0 1.3 0.6 1.0() 0.5 3.6 1.9 3.5 3.0 3.9 (2),(7) %