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  • Role of systematic uncertainties in atmospheric neutrino oscillations

    PANE 2018

    Eligio Lisi (INFN, Bari, Italy)

    ν3 ν2

    ν1 syst

  • Mainly based on: Capozzi, Lisi, Marrone, Palazzo, arXiv:1804:09678 (Global fit)

    Capozzi, Lisi, Marrone, arXiv:1708:03022 (ORCA) Capozzi, Lisi, Marrone, arXiv:1503:01999 (PINGU) Capozzi, Lisi, Marrone, arXiv:1508:01392 (JUNO)

    TALK OUTLINE: - Global ν data analysis 2018: hints for N.O. - Challenges for future high-statistics expt’s - Effect of systematics in PINGU & ORCA

    2

  • 3

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

    1

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

    1

    2

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

    2

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    4

    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

    1

    2

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    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors + Atmos

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    Global analysis of neutrino oscillation data, circa 2018 [arXiv:1804.09678]

    Normal Ordering WRT its minimum Inverted Ordering WRT its minimum Inverted Ordering WRT absolute min. in NO

    Nσ = √χ2

  • 4

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

    1

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

    1

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

    1

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    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors + Atmos

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    Global analysis of neutrino oscillation data, circa 2018 [arXiv:1804.09678]

    New: Inverted Ordering disfavored at ∼3σ [Also: Improved constraints on δ, θ23]

    N.O. + 2nd octant hints = good news for atmospheric ν!

    3.1σ

  • 5

    Progression of bounds on 3ν oscillation unknowns

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

    1

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

    2

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    4

    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

    1

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    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors + Atmos

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

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    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

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    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

    1

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

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    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

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    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

    1

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

    2

    3

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    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors + Atmos

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.50

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    2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.70

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    0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.00

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    0.25 0.30 0.350

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    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.040

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    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.70

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    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0 8.5

    ]2 eV-5 [102mδ

    σN

    0

    1

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    σN

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆ 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7

    ]2 eV-3 [102m∆

    σN σN

    π/δ 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

    π/δ

    σN σN

    12θ 2sin

    0.25 0.30 0.35

    12θ 2sin

    σN

    0

    1

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    σN

    13θ 2sin

    0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

    13θ 2sin

    σN σN

    23θ 2sin

    0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

    23θ 2sin

    σN σN

    LBL Acc + Solar + KamLAND + SBL Reactors + Atmos

    σN

    σN

    NO IO

    Atmospheric ν contribute ~1/2 of the IO-NO Δχ2 difference.

    For the 1st ]me, we have used atm. χ2 maps directly from SK (& DC). Why?

    Solar+KL+LBL accel. +SBL reac. +Atmos. (SK + DC)

    ∼1σ

    ∼2σ

    ∼3σ

  • 6

    SK: 520 energy-angle bins, 155 syst’s (“pulls”)

    Cannot be fully reproduced outside the SK Collaboration. Moreover: Mass ordering differences are small (no “bump” or “distortion” by eye!) à NO – IO sensitivity comes from cumulative χ2 effects in the global fit External analyses can only use part of the data and of the systema]cs, and can test only in part these effects [roughly speaking, we saw ½ of mass-ordering χ2 effect in our own atm. analysis]. Need the best possible calculations of NO-IO templates + error estimates

  • 7

    Future: Also ORCA and PINGU will need to use hundreds of bins The NO-IO discrimination will statistically emerge from the sum of many small contri