Μεταπτυχιακή Διατριβή: Το χειμαρρικό περιβάλλον του...

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ΔΗΜΟΚΡΙΤΕΙΟ ΠΑΝΕΠΙΣΤΗΜΙΟ ΘΡΑΚΗΣ ΜΕΤΑΠΤΥΧΙΑΚΟ ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑ ΣΠΟΥΔΩΝ του τμήματος ΔΑΣΟΛΟΓΙΑΣ ΚΑΙ ΔΙΑΧΕΙΡΙΣΗΣ ΠΕΡΙΒΑΛΛΟΝΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΦΥΣΙΚΩΝ ΠΟΡΩΝ «ΑΕΙΦΟΡΙΚΗ ΔΙΑΧΕΙΡΙΣΗ ΠΕΡΙΒΑΛΛΟΝΤΟΣ ΚΑΙ ΦΥΣΙΚΩΝ ΠΟΡΩΝ» Κατεύθυνση Α’: Αειφορική Διαχείριση Ορεινών Υδρολεκανών με Ευφυή Συστήματα και Γεωγραφικά Συστήματα Πληροφοριών ΜΕΤΑΠΤΥΧΙΑΚΗ ΔΙΑΤΡΙΒΗ «Μελέτη του χειμαρρικού περιβάλλοντος του ποταμού Σπερχειού, με το ολοκληρωμένο, υδρολογικό, φυσικής βάσης μοντέλο MIKE-SHE και χρήση GIS» Παπαρρίζος Σπυρίδων Α.Μ. 166 ΕΠΙΒΛΕΠΩΝ: Μάρης Φώτης, Επίκουρος Καθηγητής Ορεστιάδα, Ιούνιος 2012

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Περίληψη Το μοντέλοMIKESHE έχει τη δυνατότητα να προσομοιώσει το σύνολο της ροής των υδατορευμάτων που περιλαμβάνει την άμεση και τη βασική ροή. Πολλά μοντέλα, είτε δεν προσομοιώνουν, ή χρησιμοποιούν απλοικές μεθόδους, για τον προσδιορισμό της βασικής απορροής. Το μοντέλο MIKESHE λαμβάνει υπόψη πολλά υδρολογικά στοιχεία. Δεδομένου ότι η μελέτη αυτή κατευθύνθηκε προς την προσομοίωση των επιφανειακών απορροών, καθώς και της διήθησης σε κορεσμένη και ακόρεστη ζώνη, το MIKESHE αποτελεί το κατάλληλο μοντέλο για την εξαγωγή ασφαλών συμπερασμάτων.Στη συγκεκριμένη έρευνα, το μοντέλο MIKESHE χρησιμοποιήθηκε για να προσομοιώσει την απορροή στην ευρύτερη περιοχή της λεκάνης απορροής του ποταμού Σπερχειού. Επιλέχθηκαν και χρησιμοποιήθηκαν βροχομετρικά και μετεωρολογικά δεδομένα από τους σταθμούς που καλύπτουν όλη την επικράτεια της λεκάνης απορροής του ποταμού Σπερχειού. Η χρήση των ημερήσιων δεδομένων εισόδου των σταθμών, σε συνδυασμό με τα γεωλογικά και εδαφολογικά δεδομένα, κυρίως από τη βιβλιογραφία, καθώς και οι παράμετροι αυτών, τα στοιχεία φυτοκάλυψης και φυλλικής επιφάνειας, αποτέλεσαν ένα σημαντικό υπόβαθρο για τη σωστή βαθμονόμηση και την προσομοίωση όλων των φυσικών διεργασίων. Συνολικά το μοντέλο ήταν σε θέση να προσομοιώσει την επιφανειακή απορροή επαρκώς ικανοποιητικά, εκπροσωπώντας όλα τα υδρολογικά στοιχεία επαρκώς.

Transcript of Μεταπτυχιακή Διατριβή: Το χειμαρρικό περιβάλλον του...

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, , , MIKE-SHE GIS

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MikebyDHI (Danish Hydrological Institute)

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MIKE SHE . , , , . MIKE SHE . , , MIKE SHE . , MIKE SHE . . , , , , , . , .

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ABSTRACT

The MIKE SHE model is able to simulate the entire streamflow which includes direct and basic flow. Many models either do not simulate, or use simplistic methods to determine the basic flow. The MIKE SHE model takes into account many hydrological data. Since this study was directed towards the simulation of surface runoff and infiltration into saturated and unsaturated zone, the MIKE SHE is an appropriate model for reliable conclusions. In this research, the MIKE SHE model was used to simulate runoff in the area of river basin Sperchios. The rainfall data from meteorological stations covering the whole river basin Sperchios were selected and used. The use of daily data entry stations, combined with geological and soil data, primarily from the literature, and these parameters, data and vegetation leaf area, were an important foundation for proper calibration and simulation of all physical processes. Overall, the model was able to simulate the surface runoff sufficiently satisfactory, representing all the hydrological data adequately.

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1 ..........................................................................................13 ...............................................................................................13 1.1 ...........................................................................................13 1.2 ..........................................14 1.3 ...........................................15 1.3.1 ..........................................................15 1.3.2 ....................................................................15 1.3.3 ..............................................................15 1.3.4 ..................................16 1.4 ...................................................16 2 ..........................................................................................17 ......................................................................17 2.1 ....................................................17 2.2 ...............................................................................20 2.3 ........................................................................24 2.4 ............................................................27 2.6 .......................................31 2.7 ......................................................................34 2.8 ...................................................38 2.9 ..............................................................................41 2.9.1 ...................................................................41 2.9.2 ..........................................42 2.9.3 ..................................42 2.9.4 ..............................44 2.9.5 ................................................46 2.9.6 Danish Hydrology Institute DHI ..............................................53 2.9.7 by DHI ............................................................................55 2.9.8. by DHI ..........................58 ... 7

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3 ..........................................................................................81 ...................................................................................81 3.1 ............................................................................81 3.1.1. ..................................81 3.1.2 ........................................82 3.1.3. ....................................................................85 3.1.4. .......................................................86 3.1.5. ......................................................................................89 3.1.6. - ...........................................................90 3.2. ........................................................91 3.3. .................................................................92 3.4. ......................................................................93 3.4.1 - - ............ 93 3.4.2. .................. 98 3.5 - .......................................... 101 4 ........................................................................................ 102 MIKE SHE ....................................................... 102 4.1 MIKE SHE ........................................... 102 4.1.1 MIKE SHE............................... 102 4.1.2 ................................................. 104 4.1.3 ............................................................. 105 4.1.4 ................................................... 105 4.1.5 ........................................................ 106 4.1.6 ....................................................... 107 4.2 SHE............ 108 4.2.1 .................. 108 4.2.2 (Model Domain and Grid) ..... 109 4.2.3 (Subcatchments) ........................................ 111 ... 8

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4.2.4 (Topography)............................................ 111 4.2.5 (, , , - Precipitation Rate, Air Temperature, Discharge, Potential Evapotranspiration) ........................................... 112 4.2.6 (Land Use) .................................. 113 4.2.7 (Reference Evapotranspiration)......................................................................... 115 4.2.8 (Overland flow zones)................... 115 4.2.9 (Unsaturated Flow)........................... 115 4.2.10 (Saturated Zone - Interflow Reservoirs) .................................................................... 116 4.2.11 (Saturated Zone Baseflow Reservoirs) ....................................................................... 118 4.3 ........................ 119 4.3.1 .................................................................. 119 4.3.2 ..................................................................... 120 4.3.3 ....................................................... 121 5 ........................................................................................ 123 SHE.................... 123 5.1 ........................................................................................ 123 5.2 .................................................................. 123 5.3 ........................................ 124 5.4 ................................................. 126 5.4.1 ................................ 126 5.5 .................. 128 6 ........................................................................................ 135 - ...................................................................... 135

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2.01 : (, 2001) ......................... 19 2.02 : () (, 2001) .............................................................................................................19 2.03 : (, 1995) ....................................................................................45 2.04 : - (Rainfall-Runoff) (, 1995) ....................................................................................51 2.05 : ..............................56 2.06 : . ..................................................................................56 2.07 : ........................ 57 2.08: & ....... 58 3.01: ...........................85 3.02 : .........................87 3.03: ........... 88 3.04 : ...........................90 3.05 : .............. 93 3.06 : .............................................................................................................94 3.07 : ...........................................95 5.01 : ............................................................................................ 124 5.02 : ... 128 5.03 : 1962-1981. ......................... 131 6.01 : .......................................................... 138 2.01 : (Perlman et al., 2005) ........................... 18 2.02 : (, 2010)................... 19 ... 10

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2.03 : (, 2011). .............................................53 2.04 : Danish Hydrology Institute Water & Environment (DHI, 1964)............................................................................................53 2.05 : by DHI .......................................................58 2.06: URBAN ........................................................59 2.07 : URBAN.................................59 2.08 : WEST ..................................61 2.09 : 11 .......................................63 2.10 : 11 ........................................65 2.11 : ASIN ..................................66 2.12 : FEFLOW .......................................74 2.13 : FLOOD.................................76 2.14 : 21C .....................................80 E 3.015: ..................................81 3.02: .... 83 3.03: .......................................................................................84 3.03 : ..........................................87 4.01 : MIKE-SHE (DHI, 2009). .............................................. 103 4.02 : SHE............ 109 4.03 : MIKE SHE.......................................................... 110 4.04 : MIKE SHE ............................................................................... 112 4.05 : Thiessen MIKE SHE....................... 113 4.06 : / MIKE SHE....................... 114 4.07 : MIKE SHE ......................................................... 116 ... 11

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5.01 : SHE............................ 132 5.02 : SHE ...................... 133 3.01 : ......................................86 3.02 : 1:50.000 ............................................89 3.03 : .................. 91 3.04 : .........................................................................................94 3.05 : ...............................................................................95 3.06 : ......... 96 3.07 : Thiessen ... 100 5.01 : ......................... 124 5.03 : o GIS ..................................... 134 2.01: (, 2010) ............................ 41 2.02: (, 1995) .................. 42 2.03: (, 1995). .............................................................................................................43 2.04: (, 1995).........................................43 2.05: (, 1995). ..........................................44 2.06: (, 1995). ..............................44 5.01 : (m3/s).................................................................................................. 127 5.02 : (m3/s).................................................................................................. 127 5.03 : (m3/s).................................................................................................. 127 5.04 : . ........................................................................................................... 130 ... 12

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1

1.1 . . , . , . . , . , , , , . , . , - : 20% , 65% . ... 13

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60% , 50% , 20% 1985. . , , , , (, 2009). (Anderson, 1991). 1.2 , , , . .

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1.3 : 1.3.1 . 1.3.2 , MIKE SHE. (..), , ..., (...).

1.3.3 (, , ) . , . , .

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1.3.4 . , .

1.4 : : . : , , . : , - , , MIKE SHE. : MIKE SHE. : . : , , .

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2 2.1 . . Yu. Schmidt , , . , , , , . , , . D.I. Scherbakov, . Geinsgeimer

, , , 70, , , , 2-3 m. , V.I. Vernadsky , ,

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,

(, 2007). , , , , . 2.01.

2.01 : (Perlman et al., 2005)

. Baumgartner and Reichel (1975) , 1.384 x 106 km3. 2.01 2.02 , , 2,6% (, 2001), 2.02. ... 18

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2.01 : (, 2001)E , , , , (km3) 1.348.000.000 27.820.000 8.062.000 225.000 13.000 1.384.120.000 36.120.000 % 97,39 2,01 0,58 0,02 0,001 100,00 2,6

2.02 : () (, 2001) , 800 m 800 4.000 m , , % 77,23 9,86 12,35 0,17 0,35 0,003 0,001 0,003 0,04 100,00

2.02 : (, 2010) ... 19

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

1.384 km3 ,

97% . 77% 22% . 225.000 km3 . , . ( ), , , , . , . , . , . , , , (Perlman et al., 2005).

2.2 (, , ) . . , 97% , , . , 1% , , 1,7% . , , ... 20

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, , 1% ( , 1997). - 2000/60/, , , . , . (inland waters). (transitional waters) , (coastal waters) , , , , ( 3199/2003). (, ) (, , ) (, 2007). , , . , .

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: , 1 m 2 km2 , 1 3 m 2 50 km2 , 3 10 m 50 300 km2 , 10 m 50 500 km2 300 500 km2 ,

( Ca Mg, pH ..). . . , (, 1999). , , , . , , , , . ( ) (, ), ... 22

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. , , , , (, 2008). , , , . , , . ( ) ( ), (, 2007). (coastal and transitional waters) (seas), (lagoons) (estuaries). , 7/10 . ( ), . , . (lagoons), . , . ... 23

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10% . , , . , (, 2007). , . ( ), . , (, ) (, , ), , ,

()

( , 1997).

2.3 , , . , , (, 2008). 2000/60 , ... 24

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. - 2015 , , . , , , , . . , , , , , . , , (, 2000). . , , . , , , . , . ... 25

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, , , , , . , , , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , ( ), (, 2008). , , . , . , , . , ... 26

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, ( ), () ( ). / ( , , , ..) ( ), , ( , 2004).

2.4 , . , .

, . , , . , 27

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() , (, , , ), , , . . .. , . . (.. ), , . . , . . . , (, ..) (, 2010).

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2.5

, . . . : , , . . ( , ) .

, , ... 29

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. , , , , . . , (.. ) , , . , . , . (, , , , ..). , , , , , . , . , ( ). , ... 30

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(.. , , , ..). , ( ) . . ( ) (, 2009).

2.6 , , , , , , , , (, 2007). (), , , , . , , , , (, 2000). , . . 1739/1987 ... 31

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, . Grigg (1996) ( ) ( ) . (2005) , , , , , . (, 2005). () : (/) , (

) (, 2007).

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, , ( ) (, 2007). , , , . , , , ( .., 2005). (2008) : (, , ) ( ) ) ) ( (

, , ,

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( , , ).

, , , , . , . , , , , ( .., 2005).

2.7

, . , 60% , 36% . 15% , 0,4% , , . , , , (, 2007). : ... 34

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( 1,1 ) , (, 2007). , (, 2008). , , . , , 1000 m3// (MIO-ECSDE, 2007). 708.000 m3 , 3.000 m3 30 m3 (, 2005). 10 . 500-800 (300 m3 ). , 300-600 100-150 . , , 50-100 (30 m3 ),

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1040 ( SOS, 2008). 7 ,

1960, 2050 45% 9,4 . , , : , , , (, 2008). , , , , . , , , , . , , , . , - , ( SOS, 2008). 2000, 508.000.000 , World Resources Institute, 2025 3,5 , 2050, 4,2 ( 45% 36

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)

(50 ) (, 2008). , , , , . . , . , (, 2007). , . ( ) , 450 km3.

, , , . , , . , , (, ), 31 , 25% , . )

( ,

,

.37

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400 230 (, 2007). , , , ,

, . , , . , , , ( SOS, 2008).

2.8

, , 69 m3, 49 20 . , ( .., 2008). ,

. , , , ( 13 Gm3/), 38

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. , , () (, 2008). , 86% ( 96% ' 80% ). : ( 25%

21,7% ), (12,5% ), , (10,5%), . . , 4% , ( ).

, 2% , 1% (, 2006). , , , , , . , , . , . , ,

, . ... 39

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, , , . , , , , .

, , , (, 2001). . 400 km3 , 240 km3. . , 45%. H , 25,2 Gm3, 0,83 Gm3 . , , , 40% . , , , 18.00 08.00, (, 2008).

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2.9 2.9.1 Dingman (2002), , , , ( 2.01). (Brooks, 1991). , . , , , , ( Dingman, 2002). , .

2.01: (, 2010)

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2.9.2 : .

2.02: (, 1995) : : (, , ..). :

(, , , , , , ). , , , . : .

2.9.3 - (Rainfall-Runoff) , , ... ... 42

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(lumped) (discrete). : 1. ( 2.03).

2.03: (, 1995).

1. () ( 2.04).

2.04: (, 1995).

2. (, ..) () ( 2.05).

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2.05: (, 1995).

2. , , . ( 2.06).

2.06: (, 1995).

2.9.4 - (Rainfall-Runoff) :

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. , (physically based), (conceptual) (black box), . , .

2.03 : (, 1995)

, , . . . , (.. MIKE SHE). - (Rainfall-Runoff), . (calibration & validation), . ,

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, (.. Stanford IV, Sacramento ..). . . () (), (.. , , , , ..) (.. ARIMA). (, 1995).

2.9.5 (Rainfall-Runoff), 19 . Dooge (1957, 1973) 19 20, , , , ( black-box )

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- (Rainfall-Runoff). Mulvaney 1850 , . , . 1920, , . ( ) - (Rainfall-Runoff). , , , Manning. , Sherman (1932), , , . , .

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, : , .

. 1930 1940 (Rainfall-Runoff) , . Dooge (1973). - (Rainfall-Runoff) 1950 . , (Nash, 1958). , , , ... Box Jenkins (1970),

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. p( AR(p) ) q( AR(q) ), ARMA (p,q), ( balckbox ). , , . : , . 1960 - (Rainfall-Runoff). , . , . (conceptual) . 3 : , , , .. . ... 49

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, Stanford IV (Crawford Linsley, 1966), Sacramento (HFS) (Burnash et al. 1973, Georgakakos, 1986) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (SSAR) (Rocwood Nelson, 1966). , , (.. , ..) . , . - . 1970, ( Richards , Darcy , De Saint Venant ) . . MIKE SHE (Danish Hydraulic Institute Denmark) (Institute of Hydrology U.K.). 1970, . ... 50

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- , (.. 1982a, 1982b) ... - (Rainfall-Runoff) 1980 (real-time forecasting). . (.. Kalman, -Kalman, 1960, Kalman Bucy, 1961, Todini, 1978-) , , (Nemec, 1986). 1960 1970 . 2.04. 2.04 : - (RainfallRunoff) (, 1995) UBC CEQUEAU ERM GAPI SMAR 35 33 9 10 5 Quick & Pipes (1977) Charbonneau, Morin et al. (1977) Turcan (1981) Pintev & Szabo (1985) Maneville et al. (1970)

ILWAS, Chen et al.

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, , MIKE-SHE GIS CLS HBV SRM HFS , ... ... 23 7 16 Natale & Todini (1976) Bergstrom & Forsman (1973) Martinec (1975) Georgakakos (1986) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1975), Rocwood & Nelson (1966) Nielsen & Hansen (1973) Nielsen & Hansen (1973) Abbott et al. (1986) Chen et al. (1982)

SSARR

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NAMSII NAMKAL SHE ILWAS

, , ...

13 13 -

20 , Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 21 , , . , , , . , ( .., 2007). , , , .. ( .., 2009, , .., 2010, , 2011) 2.03 .

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2.03 : (, 2011).

2.9.6 Danish Hydrology Institute DHI

Danish Hydrology Institute Water & Environment & , . DHI , , , , , , .

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H DHI MIKE. , 1964, 120 . DHI 2005 Danish Toxicology Center DTC ( ). DHI VKI, . DHI ,

. , World Health Organisation (WHO) () ( 2004) ( 1993). ( 2000). United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) , Collaborating Centre for Water and Environment ( ), UNEP ( 1976). , International Association for Continuing Education and Training, (IACET) ( 2001). DHI Danish Hydraulic Institute : 1964 Danish Academy of Technical Sciences - Danish Institute of Applied Hydraulics Technical University of Denmark - .

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1970 Computational Hydraulics Centre (CHC) . 1972 DHI . 1977 Systeme Hydrologique Europeen, (SHE) ( SHE) . 1983 DHI . 1983 - (MOUSE). 1985 DHI PC. DHI . 1990 Ecological Modelling Centre . 1998 DHI 3D-flows, Mike 3. 1993 1998 DHI International Centre for Computational Hydrodynamics (ICCH) , ,

, Danish Hydraulic Institute

Danish Ministry of Research (Grundforskningscentret) . 2.9.7 by DHI DHI, , . , ... 55

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, . DHI , , , . 2.05, 2.06, 2.07, 2.08, , , , , 2.9.8. 2.05 : , , , .. , / / MIKE URBAN WD -

(GUI) WEST project ( ) WEST

2.06 : .

MIKE 11 ECO Lab 1D

MIKE 11 ECO Lab ECO Lab templates MIKE 11 ECO Lab

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MIKE 11 GIS GIS DEM

MIKE BASIN GIS MIKE BASIN

- / / SHE

FEFLOW ,

( ) IFM

2.07 : MIKE 11 MIKE 21 MIKE FLOOD (River) 1D & 2D

MIKE FLOOD (Urban) 1D & 2D MIKE URBAN CS MIKE 21 1D 2D 2D MIKE URBAN GIS

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2.08: & AKTH & ) , 2D

MIKE 21 HD

( )

MIKE 21 FLOW MODEL FM Flexible Mesh ( )

, 2D

2.05 : by DHI

2.9.8. by DHI 2.9.8.1 MIKE URBAN WD URBAN Water Distribution, , , , , GIS, , . , ... 58

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.

2.06: URBAN

2.07 : URBAN URBAN , . : ( ) ... 59

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CSOs SSOs RDII,

:

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2.9.8.2 MIKE WEST To MIKE WEST . MIKE WEST . MIKE WEST , .

2.08 : WEST WEST, : ... 61

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2.9.8.3 11 11, , . , , , , , , , 11 . , 11 . 11, :

- B / . ,

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.

2.09 : 11

11 : HD Hydrodynamics (HD ) - 1D DHI . .

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Distributed hydrology ( )

Overland flow ( ) - , 2D .

1D/2D MIKE 11.

Unsaturated infiltration (A ) - .

Evapo-transpiration () , , .

Groundwater ( ) , . 11 : ECO Lab - Ecological Modelling ( ) . GIS Extension ( GIS) -

ArcGIS , , DEM ( ) , , , 2D , , .

11 ... 64

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1D . MIKE 11 , , -. MIKE 11 . , MIKE 11 , DHI MIKE DHI.

2.10 : 11

2.9.8.4 SIN MIKE BASIN - GIS- , . MIKE BASIN ... 65

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, . , , . .

2.11 : ASIN

MIKE BASIN : /

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, , .

MIKE BASIN : ( )

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BASIN GIS. . , . , .

2.9.8.5 SHE MIKE SHE , , . , . MIKE SHE .

MIKE SHE :

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, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. . . . . . .

MIKE SHE ,

. , , - GUI, , . , , . , : - To MIKE SHE , -. 2D , , , ... 69

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, .

- , 1D ( MIKE 11), , , . , .

- MIKE SHE 1D, , Richards, ( Enterprise). , . , .

- . MIKE SHE, , , , , . , , .

-

-

, MIKE SHE 3D, ... 70

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, . ,

-.

- MIKE SHE () , , , , ( Enterprise). , , ( Enterprise).

- .

( Enterprise), : ( , ) .

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AUTOCAL - .

MIKE SHE , :

MIKE SHE Studio ( MIKE 11 Studio) - - , . MIKE SHE Studio 1D-2D , MIKE 11 MIKE SHE Studio : HD250, SO DB. MIKE SHE Enterprise - , . MIKE SHE Studio, . MIKE 11 MIKE SHE Enterprise : HD250, SO, DB AD.

DHI 30 - . MIKE SHE , DHI . SHE , MIKE 72

...

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. MIKE SHE . . 2.9.8.6 FEFLOW To FEFLOW , . FEFLOW , . , . FEFLOW . , . , , . , .

...

73

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2.12 : FEFLOW

FEFLOW, : ( , )

...

74

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2.9.8.7 FLOOD MIKE FLOOD

1D 2D , , , , , , . To MIKE FLOOD . MIKE FLOOD. 1D

FLOOD, : ,

, . , . . . ... 75

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

.

2.13 : FLOOD

1D (1-) 2D (2-) , , :

- 1D , 2D . MIKE FLOOD , MIKE URBAN CS MIKE 21. MIKE FLOOD, , ... 76

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, , . MIKE FLOOD, , , . , 2D , 1D , . GUI FLOOD MIKE URBAN. - FLOOD , , . FLOOD , , . FLOOD , / , , . MIKE ... 77

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(MIKE 21 Spectral Wave MIKE 21 Boussinesq Wave) FLOOD .

- FLOOD

, / , / . , . , 1D , MIKE 11, 2D , MIKE 21. 1D/2D , :

, , , , , , . MIKE 11 MIKE 21 FLOOD ' .

...

78

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2.9.8.8 21C To 21C . , , , . 21C , MIKE 21, .

21C : , . . , , , . , .

...

79

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. 21C

. , , DHI .

2.14 : 21C

...

80

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3 3.1 3.1.1. , , .

E 3.015:

( 2.327 m) , , , ( ), . ( 2.286 m), (1.170 m) (2.116 m). ... 81

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(), , , , , . , , . , . . : (), () . , , . 1727,763 km2 259,219 km.

3.1.2

, . , , , . , . , . ... 82

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

.

16 3.02:

, , 480 .., - , , , 8 .

...

83

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

17 3.03: .

995, . 1821 , . . 1941 . 25 1942, , , ... 84

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. 86 , 52 14 , 100 5 , . 2 . , , , , 3 . (, 2010).

3.1.3.

3.01.

9 3.01: (y) (x) (y) (x) 4285049,687 353579,893 4326445,201 321003,025

...

85

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

1 3.01 :

3.1.4.

3 : (1) , (2) - ( ) . (3) - .

...

86

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

( ) : 10 3.02 : - - - Rh Sm CR Pe , Pa , l Pl Ac Sp Pk P G I Px

18 3.03 :

...

87

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

1:50.000 (), . , , . , , , , . , , . , , , . 3.03.

11 3.03: - - - - ,

...

88

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

- , - - , -

2 3.02 : 1:50.000

3.1.5.

Corczynski . Kppen : ... 89

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

Csa . 22Co Cfb. (. , 2001). 3.1.6. -

corine land cover 2000 corine LC, 1:100.000 (Corine, 2000) Corine 2000 Arcmap 9.3, 3.04 3.03.

12 3.04 : (243) (311) (312) (313) (321) (323) - (324)

...

90

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3 3.03 : Corine 2000 3.2. :

, . . , ,

.

...

91

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, 65. , . .

(, 2010) 61 , MIKE SHE. 3.3.

, : 1. ArcGISArcmap 9.3. 2. SHE. 3. Microsoft Office Excel 2007. 4. Microsoft Office Word 2007. 5. COORD.GR. 6. AutoCAD 2009. 7. To Microsoft Office Picture Manager 2007. 8. GoogleEarth.

... 92

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3.4. 3.4.1 - -

, (8) . , , , 3.03 3.04 01/01/1960 30/09/1992, .

13 3.05 : / 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 315175,257 318191,453 359344,352 349762,011 364145,219 345572,798 319380,615 346729,322 4315241,958 4320724,159 4295729,67 4310806,889 4306846,094 4318289,286 4309592,385 4303463,669 800m 800m 460m 120m 144m 580m 850m 286m

...

93

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4 3.04 :

,

, (1) . , , , 3.04 3.05 01/01/1960 31/12/2001.

14 3.06 : / 1 364145,219 4306846,094 144m

...

94

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

5 3.05 :

, (3) , . , , 3.05 3.06 01/10/1962 28/02/1982.

15 3.07 : / 1 2 3 KA 100 m 20 m 12 m ... ... ...

344.355,29 357.834,94 364.101,51

4.311.962,35 4.303.288,50 4.301.116,10

...

95

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

6 3.06 :

3.4.1.1.

. . , ,

. , . , , , Von Neumann .. (Digman,1994). ... 96

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, y. , ,

sx j = xi sy j = yii =1 i =1

j

j

. , . ( sx j , sy j ) , .

3.4.1.2. : . 10% . . . ... 97

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. . , (, , 2006). .

3.4.2. 3.4.2.1.

. , , , , . , . , , . . ... 98

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

( , 1999). , . , Thiessen (Thiessen, 1911), Bethlahmy (Kriging). , . , ,

, , , Lagrange, splines (kirging). (, , 2006). , : , . , , (,2006). 3.4.2.2. Thiessen , i , , :

A = Ai =1 i

k

...

99

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, :

wi =

Ai A

i i . . Thiessen. , , . (.. ) ( , 2006).

7 3.07 : Thiessen ... 100

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3.5 -

1:50000 (...). , 20 m. . MIKE SHE, .

...

101

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4 MIKE SHE 4.1 MIKE SHE 4.1.1 MIKE SHE MIKE SHE Systeme Hydrologique Europeen (SHE), , Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) , Institute of Hydrology SOGREAH (Abbott et al, 1986a, Abbott et al, 1986b). (user interface) Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), . , MIKE SHE , (Refsgaard Storm, 1995, Refsgaard, 1997). () : () /,

, () , () , () , () . (cell), (DHI, 2009). , - ,

...

102

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(linear

reservoirs). (finite difference), . (interflow reservoirs) , , (interflow) (percolation). (DHI, 2009). 4.01 .

19 4.01 : MIKE-SHE (DHI, 2009). ... 103

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. , (subcatchments) , . . , (DHI, 2009). (, 2009).

4.1.2 Thiessen. . . 0 C ( ) . , mm C 0 C (DHI, 2009). ,

...

104

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. , ( ) Thiessen .

4.1.3 Corine, , .. , (slope length) Manning ( ), ArcGIS (, 2006).

4.1.4 Kristensen and Jensen. . (DHI, 2009): H , . (Leaf Area Index, LAI). .

...

105

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. LAI, (Root Depth, RD) . . .

4.1.5 , , . , , . . : () , (soil water content at saturated conditions), () (soil water content at field capacity), () (soil water content at field wilting point), () (infiltration rate) (DHI, 2009). , . , .

...

106

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4.1.6 (linear reservoirs), , . MIKE SHE (DHI, 2009). ( 4.01). (interflow), (baseflow) . (conceptual) :I (t ) Q(t ) = d [S (t )] dt

(4.01)

I(t) , Q(t) S(t) . , k, (7.1) :I (t ) Q(t ) = k d [Q(t )] dt

(4.02)

: , .

...

107

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, dh Q inf Q i Q perc = dt Sy

(4.03)

, h , Qinf , Qi , Qperc Sy . , (hthresh), , t, :Qi = ( ht ht 0 ) S y dt + Q inf

(4.04)

(4.04) (DHI, 2009).

4.2 SHE 4.2.1 ( ) . 4.02.

...

108

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

20 4.02 : SHE

4.2.2 (Model Domain and Grid) . , (Subcatchments). (GIS shape file) DH (dfs2). 4.03 , .

...

109

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

21 4.03 : MIKE SHE

. . 200 m 5000 m . (Vzquez et al, 2002). , 500 m. ... 110

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4.2.3 (Subcatchments) .

, . , , , , . , . , , .

4.2.4 (Topography) () . . DHI (dfs2) , , ... 111

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, ASCII , , . , 3.5.1, 20 m. 4.04 .

22 4.04 : MIKE SHE

4.2.5 (, , , - Precipitation Rate, Air Temperature, Discharge, Potential Evapotranspiration) ,

. , x Thiessen (GIS shapefile). Thiessen , 3 , ... 112

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. 4.05 Thiessen .

23 4.05 : Thiessen MIKE SHE

4.2.6 (Land Use) . , CORINE Land Cover . (GIS shapefiles), / ... 113

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

CORINE. . (.., , , , .) : Leaf Area Index ( ) (Rooting Depth) , 20 . CORINE . CORINE , (.., , , .) . / , , 4.06 .

24 4.06 : / MIKE SHE

...

114

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4.2.7 (Reference Evapotranspiration) , () dfs0.

4.2.8 (Overland flow zones) ( ) , . , . .

4.2.9 (Unsaturated Flow) ( ) . , (, 1996). ( ) ... 115

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. ( , , ). 4.07 ( ) .

25 4.07 : MIKE SHE

4.2.10 (Saturated Zone - Interflow Reservoirs) . , . ... 116

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, . , (interflow) , - , . , (DHI, 2009). . . . , , . , ,

...

117

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(DHI, 2009).

4.2.11 (Saturated Zone - Baseflow Reservoirs) , , . , ( ). , , , , . . , .. . ( ) ( ), . ... 118

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

..

, (DHI, 2009). . .

4.3 4.3.1 o o MIKE-SHE, . , . . . 119

...

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. , . . . , . (, 2006) .

4.3.2

, . , , , . , . .

...

120

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, , . (field capacity) (wilting point). (DHI, 2009).

4.3.3 , (DHI, 2009). , ( ) minimum . ,

, : 1. , 2. , 3. , 4. .

...

121

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(.. ) : 1. , 2. , 3. , Manning.

, .

.

...

122

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

5 SHE 5.1

. , . 1962 1981, , , , , .

5.2 3 , 5.01 5.01. , . , , .

...

123

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

16 5.01 : /1 2 3

(m3)870.546405 1170.994393 1282.541178

344,355.29 357,834.94 364,101.51

4,311,962.35 4,303,288.50 4,301,116.10

8 5.01 :

5.3 / . : () (MAE) (Mean Absolute Error) (. 5.01), () (RRMSE) (Relative Root Mean Square Error) (. 5.02), () (EF) (Coefficient of Efficiency) Nash-Sutcliffe ... 124

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

(. 5.03), () (BIAS) (Residual Bias) (. 5.04) (Legates, 1999). :

MAE =

Oi =1

n

i

Pi

n

(5.01)

RRMSE =

(Oi =1n

n

i

Pi ) 2

n

1 O

(5.02)

EF = 1.0

(Oi =1 n i =1

i

Pi ) 2 O)2

(On i

(5.03)

i

BIAS =

(Oi =1

Pi )

n

(5.04)

Pi , Oi () , O . RRMSE 0.0 ( 0.0) EF - + 1.0. (BIAS) EF 0.0. EF, , , (Henriksen ., 2003).

...

125

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

5.4 5.01 .

5.4.1 . . 5.01-5.03 5.02 3 3 . , , , 1962-1981 ( EF= 26,5%, EF= 36,1%, EF= 54,3%). . 5.01-5.03, , . , .

...

126

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

7 5.01 : (m3/s)

8 5.02 : (m3/s)

9 5.03 : (m3/s)

...

127

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

17 5.02 : (m3/s) F MAE RRMSE 10/1962 - 9/1981 4.63 (12.95) 12.65 (18.1) 0.361 9.87 11.88 (22.07) 0.543 12.36 0.77 8.50

0.76 BIAS 4.96 *

0.265 7.80 1.14 5.32

45 50 m3/s, , , .

5.5

, . , 1962-1981, . :PREC: : DIR: RF:

...

128

, , MIKE-SHE GIS BIN: BOUT: S: ( ) S ,

(mm) . (hm3) . :

PREC = AET DIR RF + BIN BOUT S +

(E. 5.04)

,

S. S ( ) . (.., , ), ( , ). , S . S (DHI, 2009). ... 129

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, S . , S

( S). (DHI, 2009). 5.04 1962-1963 1980-1981 , , , , 1976-1977 , .

10 5.04 : . 5.03 1962-1981.

...

130

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

66,01% , 21,88%. 18 5.03 : 1962-1981. 1962-1963 1963-1964 1964-1965 1965-1966 1966-1967 1967-1968 1968-1969 1969-1970 1970-1971 1971-1972 1972-1973 1973-1974 1974-1975 1975-1976 1976-1977 1977-1978 1978-1979 1979-1980 1980-1981 (mm) (mm) (%) PREC 1226 833 741 720 813 684 731 825 932 904 696 857 811 794 563 792 744 879 1010 15555 AET 674 596 561 503 522 473 476 554 569 609 527 544 585 524 422 495 568 545 523 10270 DIR 277 167 159 158 185 132 182 183 211 174 139 178 168 161 131 178 146 184 292 3405 RF 178 62 34 34 53 67 41 57 73 70 54 81 40 76 15 44 44 97 113 1233 BOUT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 DS -7 -18 -6 -1 2 4 -3 2 4 -1 -4 5 -6 5 -11 5 -2 9 2 -21 Error 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

818.7 100

540.5 66.01

179.2 21.88

64.9 7.92

0.0 0

-1.1 0.12

0.0 0

...

131

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

26 5.01 : SHE

...

132

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

27 5.02 : SHE

1962-1981 .

...

133

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

9 5.03 : o GIS

...

134

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

6 -

, :

.

3 .

1:50.000 , ArcGIS 9.3. , . ,

...

135

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, 0 m () 2269,09 m . 1727,763 km2 . . 800 m , 800 m, 460 m, 120 m, 144 m, 580 m, 850 m 286 m . , . , , . , , . , 1/10/1962 30/09/1981. Corine Land Cover 2000 7 . ... 136

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4 , : Quercus coccifera , Pistacia lentiscus, Quercus coccifera Quercus frainetto, bies borisii -regis Abies cephalonica . Platanus orientalis Salix alba. . 1:50.000 (), . 3 - 55,42%. , , SHE, 3 , 3 , . 3 , 1962-1981 ( EF= ... 137

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

26,5%, EF= 36,1%, EF= 54,3%). , , , , , . , 1962-1981, . 6.01 ( 1962-1981), 2006 , ( 1980-2001). 19 6.01 : . (mm) 19621981 (mm) 19802001 (, 2006) PREC 818.7 AET 540.5 DIR 179.2 RF 64.9 BOUT 0.0 DS -1.1 Error 0.0

962.3

488.0

6.7

339.9

61.4

114.3

0.0

PREC: , : , DIR: , RF: , BOUT: . , S:

. , , , , / , , DS, ... 138

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. , , . , : MIKE SHE , . MIKE SHE, . , . MIKE SHE, . , , .

, , , .

...

139

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, , . , , MIKE SHE Water Balance Analysis Tool, MIKESHE2MBasin MIKE BASIN, MIKE 3 , (, 2009).

...

140

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

Abbott, D., Morton, J. and Holmes, M. (1986). Heat flow measurements on a hydrothermally-active, slow-spreading ridge: the Escanaba Trough. Geophysical Research Letters 13(7).

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Abbott, M. B., Bathurst, J. C , Cunge, J. A., O'Conncll, P. E. & Rasmussen, J. (1986b) An introduction to the European hydrological system Systme Hydrologique Europen "SHE". 2: Structure of a physically based distributed modelling system. Journal of Hydrology. 87, 61-77 Anderson M. B., (1991), Witch costs more: prevention or recovery?, In A. Kreimer and M. Munasinghe (eds), Managing Natural Disaster and the Environment, The World Bank, Environment Department, Washington DC, pp 17-27. Army Corps of Engineers, (1975). Program Description and Users Manual for the SSAR Model. North Pacific Division, Portland, Oregon. Baumgartner A., Reichel E., Lee R., (1975). The World Water Balance, Munchen, Wien. Bergstrom, S., Forsman, A., (1973). Development of a Conceptual Deterministic Rainfall-Runoff Model. Nordic Hydrology, Vol. 4 (3).

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Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M., (1970). Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. Holden Day. San Francisco. Calif. Brooks, R. A., (1991). "Intelligence Without Representation", Artificial Intelligence Journal (47), pp. 139159.

Burnash, R.J.C., Ferrak, R.L., and McGuire, R.A., (1973). A General Streamflow Simulation System Conceptual Modelling for Digital Computers. Report by the Joint Federal State River Forecasts Center, Sacramento, Calif.

Charboneau, P., Fortin, J.P., and Morin, G., (1977). The CEQUEAU Model: Discription and Examples of its use in Problems Related to Water Resources Management. Bulletin of the Association of Hydrological Sciences AIHS., 22 (1) pp. 193-203. Chen, C.W., Dean, J.D., Gherini, S.A. and Goldstein, R.A., (1982a). Acid Rain Model-Hydrologic Module. J. of Environmental Engineering, American Society of Civ. Eng., Vol. 108, 455-472. Chen, C.W., Hudson, R.J.M., Gherini, S.A., Dean, J.D. and Goldstein, R.A., (1982b). Acid Rain Model-Canopy Module. J. of Environmental Engineering, American Society of Civ. Eng., Vol. 109, 585-603.

Crawford, N.H. and Linsley, R.K., (1966). Digital Simulation in Hydrology, Stanford Watershed Model IV. Tech. Rep. No. 39, Civ. Eng. Dept. Stanford University.

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DHI, (2004). MIKE SHE: An Integrated Hydrological Modeling System. Danish

Hydraulic Institute, Hrsholm, Denmark.DHI, (2009). The MIKE SHE User and Technical Reference Manual, Danish Hydraulic Institute, Copenhagen.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.17521688.2008.00244.x/full?url_ver=Z39.88 2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Abook&rft.genre=book&rft.btitle= MIKE%20SHE%3A%20An%20Integrated%20Hydrological%20Modeling%20System&rft.date= 2004&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fwiley.com%3AOnlineLibrary

Dingman, S.L., (1994) Physical Hydrology, Macmillan Publishing Co., New York, NY. Dingman, S.L., (2002) Physical Hydrology , 2nd ed., Upper Saddle River, N.J., Prentice Hall. Dooge, J.C.I., (1957). The Rational Method for Estimating Flood Peak. Engineering (London). Vol. 184, 311-337. Dooge, J.C.I., (1973). The Linear Theory of Hydrologic Systems. Tech. Bull. U.S. Dep. Agric. No.1468, U.S. Gov. Print. Off., Washington, D.C.. Georgakakos, K.P., (1986). A Generalised Stochastic Hydrometeorological Model for Flood and Flash-flood Forecasting. 2, Case Studies, Water Resources Research, 22(13), pp. 2096-2106. Grigg, N. S., (1996). Water Resources Management, McGraw-Hill, New York.

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Refsgaard J. C., (1997) Parameterisation, calibration and validation of distributed hydrological models. Journal of Hydrology. 198. 69-97 Rocwood, D.M. and Nelson, M.L., (1966). Computer Application to Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation. IV Int. Conf. Irrig. Drain. Sherman, L.K., (1932). Streamflow from Rainfall by the Unit Graph Method. Eng, News rec., 108, 501-505.

Thiessen A.H., (1911), Precipitation for Large Areas, Monthly Weather Review, 39, 1082-1084 Todini, E., (1978). Mutually Interactive State Parameter (MISP) Estimation. Proc AGU Chapman Conf. Appl. Kalman Filtering Tech. Hydrol. Hydraul., Water Resour., Dep. Civ. Eng. University of Pittsburg, Pittsburg, PA. ... 145

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Turcan, J., (1981). Empirical-Regressive Model for Runoff Forecasting in the Bodrog River System. Vodohospdarsky Casopis 3/1982 (in Slovak).

Vzquez, R. F., Feyen, L., Feyen, J., Refsgaard, J. C., (2002). Effect of grid size on effective parameters and model performance of the MIKE-SHE code. Hydrological Processes. 16. 2. 355-372 . () (2008). URL:

http://www.asda.gr/gym8per/Programes/water/water10.htm . , ., (2008). . . 28 , . , ., , ., , ., , ., (2005). , .... , ..., . , . (2008). 1,6 . km3 . , 7 . URL: http://qualitynet.lighthouse.gr/displayITM1.asp?ITMID=60390 . , . (2008). : . URL: http://www.gngnet.gr/users/ggoudr/WATER.TXT .

...

146

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

. (2001) : ( , , ) , , . . - () (2008). . URL: http://www.ekby.gr/ekby/el/Greek_Wetlands_main_el.html#ORISMOS . , ., , ., , . (2007). , , 9, , . , ., . , , . (2009). : , , ..., . , . (2007). , , 22 . URL: http://www.enet.gr/online/online_text/c=112,id=87722500,34692292,728070 8. , ., (2005). , ..., . , ., , . , . (2010).

( 4), ... 147

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, : ... . , ., (2000). : . , 12 . URL: http://tovima.dolnet.gr/print_article.php?e=B&f=13110&m=C07&aa=1 , ., (2007). (, ,

, , , , ). ., ., (1999) 3. : , .

, ., (2007). : , , , , .... , ..., . . , (2001). , : ..., . , . (2007). , , .... , ..., . , ., (2011). - . , ... .

...

148

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

SOS, (2008).

,

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, . (2007). & : , .... , ..., . ., . (2010) . , .... . (2009). , 1 . , ., (2009). , . , ... , . (2008). , , , . , . (2010). Mike She , . , .... ... 150

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(1996) , , 1:1.000.000, , 1996

, (2006). / . . : ... 151

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

, , ,

...

152

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

1. 10/1962-09/1981 2. 10/1962-09/1981 3. 10/1962-09/1981 4. 10/1962-09/1981 5. 10/1962-09/1981 6. 10/1962-09/1981 7. 10/1962-09/1981 8. 10/1962-09/1981 9. 10/1962-09/1981 10. 10/1962-09/1981 11. (m3/s) 12. (m3/s) 13. (m3/s) 14. 15. SHE 16. SHE 1. 2. 3. CORINE 2000 4. 5. 6. ... 153

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

7. Thiessen 8. 9. 10.

...

154

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

1. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

155

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

156

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

157

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

158

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

5. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

159

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

6. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

160

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

7. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

161

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

8. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

162

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

9. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

163

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

10. 1/10/1962-30/09/1981

...

164

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

11. (m3/s)

...

165

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

12. (m3/s)

...

166

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

13. (m3/s)

...

167

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

14.

...

168

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

15. SHE

...

169

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

16. SHE

...

170

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

X 1.

...

171

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

2.

...

172

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

3. CORINE 2000

...

173

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

4.

...

174

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

5.

...

175

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

6.

...

176

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

7. Thiessen

...

177

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

8.

...

178

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

9.

...

179

, , MIKE-SHE GIS

10.

...

180