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18

E

:

: ( ) ( )

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.

E

No 18 2015

EDITORIAL 4

5

12

: 22

, 29

2015

KEN

3

4 2015

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2015, -. , , - , , 20 , . , -, - . , .

, . . , - - , - .

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EDIT

OR

IAL

KEN

20155

,

, , - , - , , , , . , - .

, (), 2015 3,1%, - () 3,5% 2015, 2016 - 3,8%, 2002-2011 ( 1)., 2015, 2% 1,9%, , , , 6,8%.

2002-2011

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

(%) 3,9 3,3 3,3 3,3 3,1 3,8 1,7 1,3 1,4 1,8 1,9 2,5 1,7 2,3 2,2 2,4 2,0 2,8 1,1 -0,8 -0,3 0,9 1,4 2,1 0,7 1,7 1,6 -0,1 0,7 1,4 6,7 5,2 5,1 4,7 4,2 4,9 10,6 7,7 7,7 7,4 6,8 6,7

(%) 0,1 -2,2 -2,2 -2,0 -1,9 -1,2

(%) 6,9 7,9 7,9 7,3 6,9 6,6

(%) 2,1 1,9 1,3 1,5 0,7 1,7

(% ) -4,4 -5,8 -4,2 -3,7 -3,1 -2,5

(%) 5,6 3,1 3,3 3,2 3,9 5,3

1

: (2015).

KEN

2015

6

, , 2015 6,9% 7,3% 2014 7,9% 2013, - -. , , -, , - , .

, , 2015 1,4%, , (1,8%). , , - , , - (). , 2016, 2,1% - (1,9%) , . 2015, Eurostat, - 11,1%, 0,1 2015 1,0 2015. ,, , 2015 9,7% 2015 6,9%.

, , - (-0,6%) . , Euro-stat, 0,3% 0,0% , , ( - , , - , , ..), .

, - //, - , - . , , , - . , , 2015 - 0,1%, 2016 2,3% ( 2).

2015

KEN

7

2015, , , , 0,2% 2014 0,4% 2014. 2015 2014 (0,3%).

o M 2015, -, , o , . , 91,4 92,7 . , (), , , .

. , - , 2015 , , 2,9% 2014 2,1% 2013. 2014- 2015, 2013- 2014, - 2,9 %. , 2015 - 6,3%, 1,3%, , , .

, - (Purchasing Managers Index - PMI), Markit, 2015 48, - , (46,5). 50,0 , . , Markit, , - .

. , - 2015 -2,1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

( %) -5,3 -8,9 -6,6 -4,0 0,7 0,1 2,3

( %) -6,9 -10,7 -7,9 -2,2 1,4 0,9 1,1

( %) -4,4 -6,3 -6,7 -5,1 -0,8 -1,7 -0,9

( %) -20,8 -17,0 -28,5 -9,5 3,0 0,6 5,0

(%) 12,7 17,9 24,4 27,5 26,4 25,2 24,1

(% ) -9,9 -9,9 -2,5 0,6 0,9 2,1 2,8

(% ) -11,1 -10,2 -8,7 -12,3 -3,6 -3,4 -2,8

2

: (2015).

2015

KEN

8

-1,4%, -1,8% 2015, 2015, -2,8%.

2015 , 2013, 27,9%( 1). , , 2015 25,6%, 25,6% 2015 26,9% 2014. , - 2015 3.518.858 , 16.092 0,5% 2015, 2014 14.056 0,4%. 1.211.507 , 79.395 6,2% 2014 4.283 0,4% 2015. 2015 25,2% 26,4% 2014 ( 2), , - , 2015 25,6%.

, , -- 2015 - 2.179 . ,

1

: (2015).

KEN

20159

1.026 . 2014. , - 2014, 4.186 . . , 2015, 2014 406 . , , 765 . . , 2015 1.627 . , 283 . 2014. , - , , 2015, 1.699 . .

- , - . , 8/6/2015 764 846 19/5/2015 794 5/5/2015. , KEPE GRIV1 - . 58,04%, 45,53% , 58,31%, 47,65% ( 2). .

2 KEPE GRIV (2/1/2004-29/5/2015)

: , 2015.

1. . . .

, - , . , , 2015 - repos 174,7 . 181,2. , 213,3 . 2014. , 6,6 . , 2014-2015 repos 38,7 . 18,1%. 38,7 . , , , 2014- 2015 - 30,6 . , 133,6 . . , .

, , - spread 10 ( ), , , 1.000 . , 1/6/2015 spread 1.064 - 1.133 26/5/2015 1.056 5/5/2015. , , spread 1/6/2015 141 , 221 , 66 140 ( 3).

2015

KEN

10

3Spread 10 -

: Thomson Reuters Datastream, 2015.

KEN

201511

, , , 2015 , , 651 . , 59,3% 2014, 1.598 . . - - , 2014 - 1.176 . , 738 . , , , 893 . ( 14,6%). , , - , 2015, 1.594 . , 300 . - 2014. , 2015 395 . 2015 1.108 . 2015, 4,1 . , 2015 692 . .

, - , 2015 312,6 . , - , 11,5 . 2014 (324,1 . ), 10,9. () (), Eurogroup 20

2015. , 2015 400 . . - , (repos) , . , 2015 repos 10,3 . , 9,8 . 2015.

2015

KEN

12

,

1. - (2002) (2014). , - , , 2 , T- (), 85% -. - . , .

2. , , - (.. , , -, ..). -, , , - . , , .. ( 3) . 4 () ().

1. . . , , . . .

2. , , : (), Alpha Bank, Eurobank-Ergasias .

3. , Van den Heuvel (2002) Karagianniset al. (2012).

4. (credit channel) Bernanke and Gertler (1995) Kashyap and Stein (2000).

KEN

201513

1 , .

1

: & (2007).

, , , , .

1. 2. 3.

(.. , , - ..)

4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

1. ( )2. 3. 4. (equity) 5. (.. -

, , , -, ..)

6.

(off-balance sheet items)

( , ,Repos ..)

1

: & (2007).

- 2002-20145.

5. ,. , . (2011).

2015

KEN

14

3. 2, , , : , , Eurobank-Ergasias AlphaBank. 2, , - 2014 () 111,4 . 85,2 . Eurobank Ergasias 71,6 . , , - Alpha Bank 69,2 .

ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias

( )2002 53,927 28,725 25,281 14,724 122,657

2003 53,712 30,803 27,912 14,735 127,161

2004 52,877 33,037 32,986 16,591 135,491

2005 60,209 43,805 44,376 23,408 171,798

2006 76,307 49,523 53,720 30,831 210,381

2007 90,097 54,514 68,303 46,283 259,197

2008 101,064 64,936 81,953 54,635 302,589

2009 113,220 69,596 83,880 53,997 320,693

2010 120,274 66,371 86,685 57,263 330,593

2011 105,560 57,681 75,096 48,174 286,512

2012 103,501 56,557 65,547 68,511 294,116

2013 108,521 70,909 74,523 89,148 343,100

2014 111,440 69,246 71,624 85,271 337,581

( % )2002 43,97 23,42 20,61 12,00 100,0

2003 42,24 24,22 21,95 11,59 100,0

2004 39,03 24,38 24,35 12,25 100,0

2005 35,05 25,50 25,83 13,63 100,0

2006 36,27 23,54 25,53 14,65 100,0

2007 34,76 21,03 26,35 17,86 100,0

2008 33,40 21,46 27,08 18,06 100,0

2009 35,30 21,70 26,16 16,84 100,0

2010 36,38 20,08 26,22 17,32 100,0

2011 36,84 20,13 26,21 16,81 100,0

2012 35,19 19,23 22,29 23,29 100,0

2013 31,63 20,67 21,72 25,98 100,0

2014 33,01 20,51 21,22 25,26 100,0

2

: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database).

KEN

201515

2, , . . , () , 2014, 33,0% . 25,2% , Eurobank-Ergasias 21,2% , , Alpha Bank 20,5%.

2012 , , , 2012, 6. , 2011 - . - 330,5 2010, 2011 286,5 . 44 ( 13,3% ). -: , ( 3, , 2010 2011, 20 ) , , PSI (Private Sector Involvement) 2012. , 2013 - 343,1 - 337,5 2014.

( 3 , 1, ) .

4.

3 2002-2014. - .

3 : , 2014, , , 71,4 , , ( ) - 57,4 . , 2013, ( ) 7 - . 2013, Alpha

6. , , , -, Millennium.

7. .

2015

KEN

16

Bank, , - Eurobank-Ergasias ( ) - , , .

4 . - .

4 2010 , 70% , ( 2008 76% ). 2014, 66% - 8. -, , . ( 2005 & 2006) AlphaBank

ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias

2002 25,440 21,157 15,532 8,505.61 70,634

2003 26,818 26,286 17,219 10,498.3 80,822

2004 31,292 23,246 21,964 11,929.1 88,432

2005 31,118 29,983 29,617 17,636.9 108,355

2006 45,008 36,464 36,984 23,218.6 141,674

2007 56,968 45,534 50,215 33,151.7 185,868

2008 74,909 53,0111 60,491 40,836.6 229,248

2009 77,928 53,246 60,621 38,953.9 230,749

2010 80,533 51,346 61,427 39,559.5 232,866

2011 75,797 46,683 55,082 34,927.1 212,489

2012 69,135 43,878 47,864 45,466.3 206,343

2013 67,250 54,245 45,610 62,365.8 229,470

2014 71,433 52,329 42,133 57,440.1 223,335

3

*

: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database). * . 1. .

8. , , - (collaterals) ( , ). , .

KEN

201517

. 9.

- .

A I 5 (%) . ThomsonReuters DataStream : , & () , 3 1. , 5, () .

, , : , 2010, & 42 ( 49,8% - ). ( 2014) -

9. - ( 1) . , , ... 1/3 - ( , , 2014, . 75).

ETE Alpha Bank Eurobank-Ergasias

2002 47,17 73,65 61,44 57,77 57,59

2003 49,93 85,34 61,69 71,25 63,56

2004 59,18 70,36 66,59 71,90 65,27

2005 51,68 68,45 66,74 75,34 63,07

2006 58,98 73,63 68,85 75,31 67,34

2007 63,23 83,53 73,52 71,63 71,71

2008 74,12 81,63 73,81 74,74 75,76

2009 68,83 76,51 72,27 72,14 71,95

2010 66,96 77,36 70,86 69,08 70,44

2011 71,80 80,93 73,35 72,50 74,16

2012 66,80 77,58 73,02 66,36 70,16

2013 61,97 76,50 61,20 69,96 66,88

2014 64,10 75,57 58,83 67,36 66,16

4H (%)

: Thomson Reuters DataStream (Worldscope database).

2015

KEN

18

25,5 ( 30,4% -), 2010 3,2 ( 3,9% ). - 2011 & . 2014 26,8% ( 30,4% 2010), 4,1% . , , & , .

- , ( 6) - . , 2011, - & . , 2013 2014, 44 42 , . - , 2014 26% , , .

Alpha ank, 2014 & 30 ( 49,0% ). 2014 20,2 ( 33,2% ) 13,7 2010, , - 2,7 ( 4,5% - ).

, Eurobank-Ergasias, 2010 - Alpha Bank & 32,5 ( 51,1% -) 17,1 ( 26,9% ), , 2010, 5,1 ( 8,1% ). , , . -, & , 2014 (19,4 18,3 , ). , ( ) 7,2 (14% ) , 10. & .

10. () 9%-16% .

KEN

201519

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

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(6)

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(2)

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2005

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11,8

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13,4

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2006

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21,5

15,3

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46,4

2,6

17,1

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31,0

4,6

30,6

14,8

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2,8

20,6

5,7

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33,5

2007

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27,2

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58,5

4,2

19,4

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37,4

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30,6

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2,5

27,0

6,6

0,0

5,2

41,5

2008

1,8

41,4

22,2

0,0

11,0

76,5

3,4

25,3

11,1

0,3

4,6

46,3

4,7

31,8

15,4

0,0

10,3

62,3

1,2

27,0

6,6

0,0

4,9

39,9

2009

3,1

40,4

24,4

0,0

12,2

80,3

2,3

30,3

13,5

0,6

5,9

54,2

5,1

32,5

17,1

0,0

8,9

63,7

1,9

27,6

6,9

0,0

4,4

40,9

2010

3,2

41,9

25,5

0,0

13,3

84,0

2,4

30,7

13,7

1,0

6,1

55,4

5,1

32,5

17,1

0,0

8,9

63,7

1,9

27,6

6,9

0,0

4,4

40,9

2011

4,3

40,5

24,0

0,0

14,0

82,9

1,8

28,4

14,1

0,5

5,4

51,5

6,9

30,4

14,0

0,0

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58,4

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6,8

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2012

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2015

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20

5. - , 2014 , Eurobank-Ergasias Alpha Bank. 2010 70% ( 2008, , 76% ). - , 2014 - 66% . .

, - - , 2013-14. , , - , . - .

, , - :

1) , - . ,

2) . - . , : ) (prices of collaterals) . - , , ) , - , ) ) - ( ).

(2014), ,

.

, . , . (2007), II: , , 65, : .

KEN

201521

, . , . (2011), , - , .

Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. (1995), Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,

Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, pp. 27-48.

Karagiannis, S., Panagopoulos, Y., and Spiliotis, A. (2012), Modelling banks lending behaviour in a capital

regulated framework, Metroeconomica 63, pp. 389-416.

Kashyap, A. and Stein J. (2000), What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of

Monetary Policy?, American Economic Review 90, pp. 407-428.

Van den Heuvel, S. (2002), Does bank capital matter for monetary transmission?, Federal Reserve Bank of

New York, Economic Policy Review, May.

2015

KEN

22

: :

, (...), Team Europe ,

( )

1. , - , . , , - (Non Performing Loans, NPLs)1 - , - .

, - , (Regulatory Capital)2, - , .

- . , - , , , , ( , .), . , - , (Credit Evaluation), (Risk Management), (Asset and Liability Manage-ment), (Corporate Governance), , - , -.

1. , 90 , . .. (2014), 42/30.5.2014.

2. . - , , , (Jones, 2000).

KEN

201523

, , , - . . , - : i) ii) . - , / , , . , .

2. NPLs, KAI - , 1988, -, (International Convergence of Capital Measurement and CapitalStandards) (, 1990 & 1991). , 2004 , II (International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards:a Revised Framework) - (Hakenesa & Schnabelb, 2011, , 2007). . 3601/2007, - 2006/48/ 2006/49/ (.....).

( II) ():

- , ( )( 1).

( ) , , - ( 2).

- , , ( 3).

2015

KEN

24

2008, , - , 2019 - , - (, 2012).

2015, - 1 (CET1) 4,5%, (Tier 1) 6% 8%3.

, - (deleveraging) - (non-core banking assets), . , NPLs - (DGComp) - , .

NPLs c. 84 . , ( III) - .

3. CET1, Tier I -, , -, (Risk Weighted Assets).

4. NPL ratio Gross Loans (Q1 2015).

CET 1 ratio CET 1 ratio (Basel III)

NPL ratio NPL4 (bn)

Alpha Bank 13,1% 12,6% 33,8% 16,8

National Bank of Greece 12,1% 8,7% 32,0% 23,7

Eurobank Ergasias 14,2% 10,2% 34,0% 18,0

Piraeus Bank 11,9% 11,1% 38,9% 25,1

1Capital Adequacy Ratio CET 1 NPLs (Q1 2015)

: .

3. NPLs - (bank-specific determinants), . , .

H Rinaldi Arellano (2006) , - , -

KEN

201525

. (Linear Cointegration/Vector Error Correctionmodel) , - .

, Beck, Jakubic Piloiu (2013), 75 2003-2013, , , - (effective FX rate) .

Klein (2013), . , - (feedback effects / two way causality) NPLs , (Aizenman and Noy, 2006). NPLs , - .

, Makri, Tsaganos Bellas (2014), NPLs 2000-2008, , - ( , , ) (Capital AdequacyRatio, RoE). , o NPLs NPLs , - .

, NPLs - . , - - . Louzis, Vouldis Metaxas (2012), NPLs, - , , , , , .

4. 4.1. E

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ii) (Asset Ma-nagement Company, AMC), .

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, - , - . :

Resolution Trust Company, 1989 Securum, 1992 Fondo Bancario de Proteccin al Ahorro (FOBAPROA), 1995 Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency (IBPA), 1998 Korean Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO), 1998 Danaharta, 1998 Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (SDIF), 2001 National Asset Management Agency (), 2009 Sociedad de Gestin de Activos procedentes de la Reestructuracin Bancaria (SAREB),

2012.

AMCs, - , .

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ii) (AMC):

:

:

(State aid).

5. . - 2015-2016, . . , - - .

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. (1991). (), , .

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2006/49/ , 14 2006, , L 177/201, 30.6.2006.

2013/36/ , 26 2013, , 2002/87/ 2006/48/ 2006/49/, EE L 176/338, 27.6.2013.

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2.003 2010), 3 . , (Clearance Rate) 79,1% 2010 65,4% 2012, - .., - . ( 80,2% 2010 153,4% 2013), - 2 . , 5 , (5,6 100 2013, 1,7 2010). , - . , , . , 17% - . - 20 .. (3,7 2013-2014, 3,1 2010-2012), World Economic Forum.

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, , - : , . - , . , , , , , , , -. (.4304/23.10.2014- 234) - , (.4281/8.8.2014- 160) - , . , - .

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() - ( - ), , () , , () , () - (fast track) - (.. 50.000) 2 , , .

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CEPEJ (2014a), European judicial systems, Edition 2014(2012 data): Efficiency and quality of justice, an over-

view, European Commission for the Efficiency of Justice.

CEPEJ (2014b), Study on the functioning of judicial systems in the EU Member States: Greece, European Com-

mission for the Efficiency of Justice, CEPEJ(2014) final, 14.3.2014.

Ernst & Young (2015), Fraud and corruption the easy option for growth? Europe, Middle East, India and Africa

Fraud Survey 2015.

European Commission (2013a), The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, Third Review-July

2013, Occasional Paper no 159.

European Commission (2014), The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece, Fourth Review-

April 2014, Occasional Paper no 192.

European Commission (2015), The EU Justice Scoreboard, COM (2015) 116 final.

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Institute for Management Development (2010, 2013, 2014). IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook 2010/ 2013/2014. IMD, Lausanne.

Public Issue (2011, 2013, 2014), -2010/ 2012/ 2013. , .

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(2013), 2014, COM(2013) SWD 800 final, - 13.11.2013.

(2013), - 2013 , SWD(2013) 358 final, 29.05.2013.

(2014), 2015, COM(2014) 902 final, 28.11.2014

(2015), 2015, COM(2015)116 final, 9.3.2015.

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