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Transcript of ΠΡΑΚΤΙΚΑ ΣΥΝΕΔΡΙΟΥ ΠΑΝΤΕΙΟ 17-19-01 2014

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    3Kort, K. et al. (2012) Krisenlnder im Check: Reformen zeigen erste Wirkung, Handelsblatt 26.9.12.

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    9Gros, D. (2012) Europe's Recurrent Employment Problems, Ceps Policy Brief No 271, May 2012.

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    europische Debatte anstossen, Europische Kommision Pressemitteilung, Brssel 28.11.12.11

    Auf dem Weg zu einer echten Wirtschafts und Whrungsunion (2012) Bericht des Prsidenten desEuropischen Rates Herman Van Rompuy, Brssel 26.6.12.12

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    13EU verschiebt Reformplan auf 2013 (2012) Sddeutsche.de 14.12.12.

    14

    Heinen, N. (2013) EuroLand: Konzept der EUReformvertge hinterfragen, EurAktiv.de 3.7.13.15EUParlamentarier sprechen sich fr Euro Bonds aus (2010) Spiegel Online 14.12.10.16

    Keine Chance fr Eurobonds beim EU- Gipfel (2010) Stuttgarter Zeitung 14.12.10.

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    17Merkel zur Schuldenpolitik: Keine Euro- Bonds solange ich lebe (2012) Spiegel Online 26.6.12.18

    Haug J.(2011) Der Mehrjhrige Finanzrahmen 2014-2020, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Juli 2011.19 Der neue Mehrjhrige Finanzrahmen der EU (2013) Bundesministerium der Finanzen Monatsbericht

    20.12.13.20Reuters: (2013) Online 24.12.13.

    21Schuldenkrise: Merkel schwenkt auf Bankenunion um (2012) Financial Times Deutschland 14.6.12.

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    22Sievers, M. (2013) Banken Union: Schutzwall errichtet, Berliner Zeitung 19.12.13.

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    25Delors, J. und Enderlein, H. (2012) Euro-Krise: Wer Schulden macht, muss Macht abgeben, Zeit Online

    23.12.12.26

    Fratzscher, M. (2013) Euro-Krise: Es liegt nicht am Euro!, Zeit Online 9.4.13.27 Kittlitz von, A. (2013) Alternative fr Deutschland: An der Grenzen der Vorstellungskraft, Frankfurter

    Allgemeine 14.4.13.28 Dnch, U. (2013) Exporte in die Eurozone sinken. Die Euro-Erpesser haben sich verzockt: Deutschlandbraucht den Euro nicht, focus.de 24.7.13.

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    Steltzner, H. (2013) Schuldenkrise: Der Euro-eine Ehe,www.far.net 21.9.13.30

    Wermuth, D. (2013) Die Euro-Krise muss nicht immer weitergehen, Zeit Online 30.10.13.

    http://www.far.net/http://www.far.net/
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    Schieritz, M. (2013) Aus der Balance. Weil Deuschland so viel mehr produziert, als importiert, droht eineRge aus Brssel, Zeit Online 31.10.13.33

    Wirtschaftspolitik: EU relativiert Rge fr Deuschland (2013) Zeit Online 31.10.13.

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    Prsidenten des Europischen Rates Herman Van Rompuy, Brssel 26.6.12. Delors, J. und Enderlein, H. (2012) Eurokrise: Wer Schulden macht, muss Macht abgeben,

    Zeit Online 23.12.12.

    Der neue Mehrjhrige Finanzrahmen der EU (2013) Bundesministerium der Finanzen,Monatsbericht 20.12.13.

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    Dnch, U. (2013) Exporte in die Eurozone sinken. Die EuroErpresser haben sich verzockt.Deutschland braucht den Euro nicht, focus.de 24.7.13.

    EUParlamentarier sprechen sich fr Euro Bonds aus (2010) Spiegel Online 14.12.10.EUverschiebt Reformplan auf 2013 (2012) Sddeutsche.de 14.12.12.Fratzscher, M. (2013) EuroKrise: Es liegt nicht am Euro!, Zeit Online 9.4.13.

    Gammelin, C. (2010) Merkel gewinnt Verbndete, Sddeutsche.de 25.3.10.Greven, L. (2012) EuropaManifest. Eine verrckte Euro Vision, Zeit Online 4.10.12.Gros, D. (2012) Europes Recurrent Employment Problems. Ceps Policy Brief No 271, May

    2012.Haug, J. (2011) Der Mehrjhrige Finanzrahmen 2014 2020, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Juli

    2011.

    Heilmann, D. (2011) Wirtschaftskraft: Griechenland hat kaum etwas zu verkaufen,

    Handelsblatt 29.10.11.

    Heinen, N. (2013) EuroLand: Konzept der EUReformvertrge hinterfragen, EurAktiv.de3.7.13.

    Keine Chance fr Eurobonds beim EU- Gipfel (2010) Stuttgarter Zeitung 14.12.10.Kittlitz von, A. (2013) Alternative fr Deutschland: An der Grenzen der Vorstellungskraft,

    Frankfurter Allgemeine 12.4.13.

    Kolms, H. (1964) Finanzwissenschaft IV, Berlin.Kort, K et al.(2012) Krisenlnder im Check: Reformen zeigen erste Wirkung, Handelsblatt

    26.9.12.

    Merkel zur Schuldenpolitik: Keine Euro- Bonds solange ich lebe(2012) Spiegel Online26.6.12.

    Mobil, gerecht, einig (2013) Zeit Online 25.10.13.

    Mller, P. (2012) Reform des Lnderausgleichs: Schuldenlnder sollen Einkommenssteuerselbst bestimmen, Spiegel Online 23.10.12.

    Nomura: 0,57 (2011) Reporter.gr 6.12.11. (2014) Real.gr 10.1.14.

    Press releases database (2012) Konzept fr eine vertiefte, echte Wirtschafts- undWhrungsunion soll europische Debatte anstoen, Europische KommissionPressemitteilung, Brssel 28.11.12.

    Reuters: (2013) Online 24.12.13.

    Rezession: Preise in Griechenland fallen in Rekordgeschwindigkeit (2013) Handelsblatt

    9.12.13.

    Schieritz, M. (2013) Aus der Balance: Weil Deutschland so viel mehr exportiert, als es

    importiert, droht Rge aus Brssel, Zeit Online 31.10.13.

    Schuldenkrise: Merkel schwenkt auf Bankenunion um (2012) Financial Times Deutschland14.6.12.Sievens, M. (2013) Banken Union: Schutzwall errichtet, Berliner Zeitung 19.12.13.

    Steltzner, H. (2013) Schuldenkrise: Der Euroeine Ehe,www.faz.net 21.9.13.Wermuth, D. (2013) Die EuroKrise muss nicht immer weitergehen, Zeit Online 30.10.13.Wirtschaftspolitik: EU relativiert Rge fr Deutschland (2013) Zeit Online 31.10.13.

    http://www.faz.net/http://www.faz.net/
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    15 :

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    10B. Hlmstrom (1979), . 74-91.

    11N. Roubini S. Mihm (2010), . 125.12

    J. Pisani-Ferry (2012), . 104.13

    - (principal-agent model) -

    (moral hazard), . , J.-J. Laffont and D. Martimort (2002), Introduction.14 hidden actions problem. . H.R. Varian (1992), . 310.15

    P. Krugman (2012), . 206.

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    , - . . , . . (2013), . 12.7, . 732-737, . - . (2010).19

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    21P. Krugman (2012), . 197.

    22. P. De Grauwe (2011).

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    , , 2010-2014 - , .

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    23J. C. Stambaugh (2012), . 18.

    24P. De Grauwe (2011), . 13-14.

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    . S. Lall (2001). P. Krugman , -, , . . P. Krugman (1994).

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    , , , - . (World Economic Forum-WEF)

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    26. World Economic Forum (WEF) (2011).

    27J. Pisani-Ferry (2012), . 151.

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    29. J. Wallis B. Dollery (2005), . 4.2, . 132-147. - , , . J.-J. Laffont and D.Martimort (2002).30

    United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) (2011), . 2.31

    , .2.32. . (2013), . 27.33

    . J.S.Nye (1967), . 418.

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    , . . (2013) : - , , . 64, . 21-33.

    , . (2012) , , -, . 57, . 5-14.

    Krugman, P. (2012) , . , , .

    , . . (2010) , - , MPRAPaper 23173.Pisani-Ferry, J. (2012) :

    , 2, . , , .Roubini, N. Mihm, S. (2010) :

    , . , , .Stiglitz, J. E. (2011) :

    , . . , , .Varian, H. R. (1992): , .

    , , .Wallis, J. Dollery, B. (2005) , ,

    , , . . -, . , , .

    Alt, J., Dreyer Lassen, D. and Wehner, J. (2012) Moral Hazard in an Economic Union: Poli-

    tics, Economics, and Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe, Political Science and Political Econ-

    omy Working Paper No 5, Department of Government, London School of Economics.

    De Grauwe, P. (2011) The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone, CEPS, April.

    Hlmstrom, B. (1979) Moral Hazard and Observability, The Bell Journal of Economics, .10,. 1, . 74-91.

    Krugman, P. (1994) Competitiveness: A Dangerous Obsession,Foreign Affairs, . 73 (2).Laffont,J.-J. and Martimort, D. (2002) The Theory of Incentives, Princeton University Press,

    Princeton, N.J.

    Lall, S. (2001) Competitiveness Indices and Developing Countries: An Economic Evaluation

    of the Global Competitiveness Report, World Development, . 29 (9).Nye, J. S. (1967) Corruption and Political Development: A Cost-Benefit Analysis,American

    Political Science Review, . 61,. 2. . 417-427.Shavell, S. (1979) On Moral Hazard and Insurance, Quarterly Journal of Economics, . 93,

    . 4, . 541-562.Stambaugh, J. C. (2012) The Euros Three Crises, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity

    Spring 2012, March 12th.

    United Nations Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) (2011) Social Devel-opment in an Uncertain World: UNRISD Research Agenda 2010-2014, Geneva.World Economic Forum (WEF) (2011) The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012, Prof.

    K. Schwab (Ed.), Geneva, Switzerland.

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    1832) .

    Say - , -

    , , . . , , . , , . - , , . . , , - , .

    ;

    3. Say Say . o J. S. Mill (1848) - ("temporary derangementof markets"), ("excess of speculative

    purchases"). ("contraction of credit") ("the restoration of confidence")

    (Ch 14, Book 3, p. 561). O A. Marshall , - , ("temporary disturbances"), (p.710)

    O A. Pigou Say Theory of Unemployment, 1933"With perfectly free competition . . . there , will al-ways be at work a strong tendency for wage rates to be so related to demand that eve-

    rybody is employed. . . . The implication is that such unemployment as exists at any

    time is due wholly to the fact that changes in demand conditions are continually tak-

    ing place and that frictional resistances prevent the appropriate wage adjustments

    from being made instantaneously(p. 252) Pigou, -

    . - - (Industrial Fluctuations, 1927, Part II, Chap. IX).

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    Say , - . . . . - -

    .

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    . -/ (actuarial) (.. , -). . the price of copper and the rate of interest twenty years hence, or the ob-

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    (irreducible uncertainty) (rational) , , - . -, - Kahneman(2011) Gilbert(2006)

    . , , - (conventions) -

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    . - . The long run isa misleading guide to affairs. In the long run we are all dead. Economists set them-

    selves a too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us thatwhen the storm is long past the ocean is flat again(Keynes, 1923).

    5. Keynes : ; - ; Keynes , , .

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    o - - - , , - . , , ,

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    .

    . - , , . - , . (- - Real Balance" or Pigou effect).

    M. Kalecki, (1944) Pigou (monetary assets) (-

    1 ( )

    .

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    ) ( -) . . -, . -

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    income). - . .

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    . , , .

    ,. - ( ) . I expect to see the State taking an ever greaterresponsibility for directly organising investment a somewhat comprehensive sociali-

    sation of investment will prove the only means of securing an approximation to full

    employment (Keynes 1973, p.164).

    7.

    Sir William Beveridge 1942, (giant evils) : (want), (disease), (ignorance), (squalor), (idleness). - , - . , , - laissez-faire ,

    . - ; , ( ).

    - . - , -

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    . , J. M Clark (1934) -undue concentration of incomes and probably a resulting tendency to over-

    saving if a more equal distribution were achieved mainly at the expense of reducing

    a volume of savings so swollen that a considerable part of it goes to waste, the changewould be very nearly a clear gain (p. 78). , . .

    . - ( ). - -

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    , - ,- ) - .3 -

    . , . , - (Keynesian era) . , Bretton Woods - Thatcher Regan, .. O - , - -

    . -

    (growth) ; 2 -(GDP growth) .4 27 (1945-1972),5 27 1945-1972 1945-1972.6

    - , , , - - ;

    3 . - 1% .7 1945-1972. ,

    1% 1945-1972 , 2000, -

    3Galenson W, Zellner A (1957) .4Mauro et al. (2013).

    5 (1940-1944), . 1912-1939.

    6 1912-1939, 1.4, 1945-1972, 2.4, 1973-2000, 2.5, - 2.7, 3.2, 3.2, 2.6, 4.3, 2.3 2.2, 4.3, 3.3 . 1972 -2000

    -.7http://topincomes.g-mond.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/#Database:

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    1920. 1% .

    9.

    "to economics and economists whoare the trustees, not of civilisation,

    but the possibilities of civilisation"

    John Maynard Keynes, 19458

    - , - , -

    . -

    . , - .

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    1

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    () - , - Giordano Bruno (1548-1600) 1583 De linfinito universo et mondi ( .. Daz , Escot andGrauCarles, 2012, p. 1): , , .

    , - . , EdwardLorenz, , ( Danforth,2013): : , -

    * , , , , , , .1 -

    - , -, , - (, 2001, . 204).

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    .2 Edward Lorenz (1963), 1963, ( -

    Royal McBee LGP-30). .3 -

    Lorenz .. Poincar (1890),van der Pol van der Mark (1927), Kolmogorov (1941, 1941, 1953) R.L. Ives (1958).

    , , , (-) . -

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    , (feedback) ( ) / (, Senge, 1990).

    http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%97%CE%BB%CE%B9%CE%B1%CE%BA%CF%8C_%CE%A3%CF%8D%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B7%CE%BC%CE%B1http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%97%CE%BB%CE%B9%CE%B1%CE%BA%CF%8C_%CE%A3%CF%8D%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B7%CE%BC%CE%B1http://el.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CE%97%CE%BB%CE%B9%CE%B1%CE%BA%CF%8C_%CE%A3%CF%8D%CF%83%CF%84%CE%B7%CE%BC%CE%B1
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    - ( .. Punzo, 1998, 2006 , 2006, . 3-5).

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    Colacchio (2007), Yoshida and Asada (2007). , Vercelli(1982, 1991), a priori, : ,

    ( Veneziani and Mohun, 2006).

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    ), , : , . , , , , , - , - ( Letellier et al., 1995). 3

    Rssler, 4 ,M E , Goodwin, 1990, ch. 8.

    11Rssler (1979).

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    3. Rssler

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    , . - .

    , - , . , , : , , - -

    .(ii).

    . , -

    , , ( , ).(iii). , , Ricardo-Marx-Keynes-Goodwin, , , -, (. .. Gandolfo, 1997, ch. 24).

    ( , , ) - . -, , , -, . , - :(i). - , . - ( .. Lorenz, 1993, Appendix A.4):

    (). -,(). ( ) ,(). , , , , - .(ii). , , , - (futurity/futuritt)

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    , 2006, . 89: , , - [ - . .] - - , , , . , , - , , 60

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    . 130 : . , -

    - [...]. -

    ,

    , - (F. Engels, Anti-Dhring)..

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    , , Rssler(1976). , :(i). , , - , , , .(ii). , -

    , .

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    AMECO (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco), (2013).

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    AMECO (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco), (2013).

  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    9 AMECO (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco).

    http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/amecohttp://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco
  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    , . ( 1930) 1932 ( 2003).

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    10 AMECO (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/ameco).

  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    , ( ), - 1980, .ii. 1970 1980 -

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    iv. .. 1930, 1970-1980. -

    .. 112% (1944 16% 1930) , - -.

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    . - . .

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    92

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    93

    .. - - . - , -

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    , , - ... .

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    . . , , ,

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

    94/332

    94

    . , , , , .

    , . (2011) , , ,

    Matura., . (1947 [1977]) , , ., . . (2013) , ,

    ., . (1999 [2001]) , -

    , 12: 317-351. , 1999.

    , . (2003 [2013]) , , - .

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    . , - 1973 -, , - 1973 . -

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    97

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    - . 2007-9, - . , - , : , . ,

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    8,

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    . , - . - 2010 ,

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    - , - , - ( 5 6) 0,3% 2011 -2,4% 2012. -

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    7. Bloomberg

    -; - 10- 10- - . 1%

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    10- - CDS spreads, - - , - 1,97%-1,49%. - ( = 0.0415, = 0.0475), 25 -

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    , . . - -, .

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    , , , -

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    (), -, .

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    -. , - , - . - - -

    . - Siemens, Vinci ( -) Hochtief ( . ). - (, , ).

    , , -

    . , , -, . .

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  • 7/22/2019 17-19-01 2014

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    4. . 1992 ... , , " ",

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    " - - ". 1997 ( . 2514 ).

    , , , - - , , . - , - ( 5 . 1 6 . 1 " ... ")..

    - (2004). :

    - -

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    ( ) - -, .

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    . (.) (2008) . , ,, , , -

    ., . (2005)

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    , - 10. , ( - ), - -.

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    5. , ( - ), , (

    3 R. SCHUMAN, 09.05.1950: , - : .4

    , , .5 , , .

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    ). 11, . -

    , ( ), . ,

    - - , -, , -

    ( , -, ), ().6. , - 12, 13 ,

    -. , -. , , -14 , - , : 15, - 16

    , ratione personae, ratione materiae, - (effet utile).7. , - ,

    17, , -. , , ,

    ,

    11 7 , 12 , 18 :

    .12

    49, 51, 54, 57, 59, 63 , , , 46, 48, 50, 53 . : 43, 75, 113 , 43, 91, 207 .13

    100, 235 , 114 ., 352 . 14

    . , , - 2005, . 57 .15

    267 .16

    -

    19 , 220 ( 164).17

    05.02.1963, 26/62, Van Gend & Loos, . . . . 863.

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    - 4818: ,

    19. , ()20, 21, 22, , 23.8. , -

    ,

    , , , -/ , , , - , - .9., , , - -

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    : , , , . 1612/68/24, -

    (, , , -) 25.

    18 45 .

    19 19.03.1964, Unger, 75/63, . . . 1954-1964, . 107, 23.03.1982, Levin,

    53/81, .1035, . 11.20

    23.03.1982,Levin, . . . 15-22, 03.06.1986,Kempf, 139/85, . 1741.21

    03.07.1986,Lawrie-Blum, 66/85, . 2121.22 26.02.1991,Antonissen, C-292/89, . I-745.23

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    10. 1612/68 - , 1251/70/26, - - . , , -

    27

    , 1612/68, , 28.11. -, , 70, , , -

    . 29, 73/148/30 - . Luisi Car-bone

    31, -

    , , -

    32

    .12. - 33, - -, , -. Cowan34, - ,

    26

    , L 142, 30.06.1970, . . . 5, 1, .64.27

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    30.09.1975, Cristini, 32/75, . . . . 314, . 15-19.29 60 , 57 .30

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    1408/71/35

    , -. - , . , -, 22 , - , , .14. , , . , /36.

    2. 15. ,

    , , , , - , , , , , - , - . ) - , , - (, )

    ) - .16. -, 37, -

    35

    , L 149, 05.07.1971, . . . 5, 1,. 73, .36

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    38

    . , - (.. - 39), . -40, , - , , - 41. , - 42.17. - .

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    44

    . - , 57 45. , - )

    38 12.12.1974, Walrave, Koch, 36/74, . . . .563, . 17-18.

    39 28.4.1977, Thieffry, 71/76, . . . . 229, . 12, 18-19.

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    11.12.2007, Viking Line, C-438/05, . -11767.43 18.01.1979, Van Wesemael, 110/78, . . . . 29 ( ),20.02.1979, Rewe-Zentral ( Cassis de Dijon), 120/78, . . . . 321 (- ), 15.10.1987, Heylens,222/86, . 4097 07.05.1991, -, C-340/89, . I-2357 ( ).44

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    , : 13.02.1985, Gravier, 293/83, . 593, . 21-22, 02.02.1988,Blaizot, 24/86, . 379, 13.11.2003,Neri,C-153/02, . -3572, 23.10.2008, (),C-274/05, . -7969.