Οικονομικό Δελτίο: Τεύχος 16, Δεκέμβριος 2000

149
TPA¶EZA TH™ E§§A¢O™ OÈÎÔÓÔÌÈÎfi ¢ÂÏÙ›Ô T‡¯Ô˜ 16, ¢ÂΤ̂ÚÈÔ˜ 2000

Transcript of Οικονομικό Δελτίο: Τεύχος 16, Δεκέμβριος 2000

  • TPAEZA TH EAO

    Ofi

    T 16, 2000

  • TPAEZA TH EAO

    Ofi

    T 16, 2000

  • TPAEZA TH EAO

    E. B 21

    102 50 A

    O M -

    T. (030-1) 320 2392

    Fax (030-1) 323 3025

    T

    E T A

    T E

    ISSN 1105 - 8544

  • fi :, 7

    fi 47

    , fi 71

    M fi 91

    119

    123

    fi 129

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/006

  • :, 1

    ( )

    .

    1.

    fi. fi -

    1996, 1998 2000 (

    -

    ), fi 1998

    fi -

    -

    . ,

    . 1996

    -

    fi -

    fi, fi 1999 -

    - fi-

    , 2000 -

    .2

    fi

    -

    (

    fi ),

    fi fi 1996-

    2000 fi

    . ,

    -

    ( -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 7

    1 fi fi . . .2 . OECD, Economic Surveys: Greece, 1996 (. III, Imple-menting the OECD Jobs Strategy), -, fi: 2000, . , fi 1999(, , . 8), 2000.

  • ) fi -

    . , -

    fi

    fi -

    fi-

    .

    2. fi - 3

    -

    ,

    .

    fi fi (

    15

    fi 15-64 )

    56,9% 1999 fi

    fi fi fi (62,9%).

    fi -

    fi fi Eurostat (-

    15-64 fi

    15-64 ), fi

    fi 55,4%

    62,1%.

    fi fi -

    65 2,6%

    fi ,

    fi 1,3% . fi,

    fi fi -

    fi fi

    -

    fi fi,

    fi 2/3 fi fi

    fi fi .

    fi (

    fi), 1999 fi -

    fi 53,7%

    56,2%.

    fi fi fi -

    fi fi (6,1%

    1999, 238.000 fi 3.940.000

    )

    fi fi (17,7%).

    fi -

    fi : 10,2% ,

    33,5% . ,

    () fi

    43,8% fi , fi

    16,8% .

    1999 fi fi

    11,7% ( 9,4% ),

    fi 7,0% 1990 9,1% 1995. fi

    31,7% 25

    (: 18,3%), 17,9% (: 11,0%)

    41,0% (: 19,6%),

    fi 55,3%

    fi (: 46,0%).

    fi, fi -

    ( -

    ) fi -

    , . 12,9% 13,1%

    . , fi-

    (13,3% 12,7%),

    (42,3% 28,6%), (15,0% -

    11,8%) 4 (26,5%

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/008

    3 fi fi fi 3 2000 ( , 2000, . 66-69).4 - .

  • 11,6%). , fi

    4,4%

    7,0% ( fi -

    fi 11,5%

    , 9,4% ). fi,

    fi

    -

    fi fi fi, (4,3%

    3,4%).

    fi fi

    ( fi

    fi) 43,3 ,

    fi 37,9 . fi

    fi

    (44,7 41,9),

    -

    (40,9 40,4).5

    , (-

    -

    ), fi

    1995-1998 fi 1,07

    1,41 , -

    fi

    ( : 1,28 2,37, : 0,79

    2,69, : 1,67 2,51, -

    fi: 0,73 2,45, -

    -: 1,72 3,14,

    : 1,85 2,71, :

    2,52 4,57, -:

    1,30 2,16, : 1,10

    2,45) . 1.

    , fi

    :

    ( , 15-64

    ) 1995 1999 7,0%,

    fi fi

    2,2% fi

    fi fi, fi 60,1% 1995,

    62,9% 1999. 1/3

    fi

    fi-

    , fi 2/3

    .

    ,

    (2,9%)

    , fi -

    , fi 77,2% 1995 76,9%

    1999. , 9/10

    (

    13,6%)

    , fi 44,2% 1995

    49,7% 1999.

    fi 1998,

    -

    fi -

    fi,

    , -

    fi -

    (fi

    fi ),

    1998.6 fi -

    fi fi fi fi

    fi, fi-

    .

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 9

    5 fi fi ( New Cronos Eurostat).6 . , : 1999, 1999, . 57.

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0010

    :

    .

    1

    fi

    ,

    ,

    ,

    ,

    -

    1998

    1997

    1996

    1995

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    .

    fi

    fi

    1,15

    1,24

    1,32

    1,43

    1,29

    1,16

    1,25

    1,36

    1,28

    1,16

    1,30

    1,43

    1,34

    1,23

    1,13

    1,10

    1

    2,48

    2,35

    2,68

    2,41

    2,46

    2,47

    2,69

    2,90

    2,87

    2,89

    2,20

    1,97

    1,96

    2,10

    0,88

    1,29

    11

    3,34

    3,18

    3,64

    3,35

    2,99

    3,16

    3,42

    3,31

    3,03

    2,72

    2,32

    1,90

    1,87

    2,34

    0,70

    1,23

    12

    0,60

    0,39

    0,73

    0,75

    1,02

    0,85

    0,52

    0,67

    0,44

    0,63

    0,68

    0,68

    0,25

    0,49

    0,40

    0,71

    13

    1,

    230,

    951,

    641,

    100,

    660,

    850,

    990,

    870,

    931,

    302,

    071,

    672,

    902,

    461,

    641,

    8914

    1,29

    1,28

    1,27

    1,18

    1,32

    1,53

    1,56

    1,49

    2,00

    1,93

    1,68

    1,89

    2,02

    1,76

    1,42

    1,56

    15

    0,

    830,

    880,

    910,

    662,

    230,

    790,

    965,

    254,

    917,

    312,

    483,

    353,

    091,

    640,

    840,

    8816

    0,

    051,

    045,

    500,

    711,

    050,

    635,

    453,

    42

    0,59

    7,58

    1,71

    0,

    350,

    633,

    17

    2-3

    1,

    071,

    181,

    251,

    381,

    231,

    091,

    171,

    281,

    201,

    071,

    261,

    411,

    321,

    191,

    141,

    10

    20

    1,37

    1,39

    1,72

    2,18

    2,37

    1,37

    1,76

    1,64

    1,70

    1,64

    1,75

    1,95

    1,77

    1,63

    1,55

    1,28

    21

    1,98

    2,69

    1,63

    1,34

    0,89

    1,01

    1,49

    1,17

    0,92

    1,35

    1,37

    1,13

    0,79

    1,18

    1,30

    1,33

    22

    fi

    0,

    380,

    441,

    040,

    860,

    260,

    110,

    180,

    230,

    400,

    120,

    080,

    440,

    280,

    160,

    310,

    3823

    0,

    800,

    910,

    791,

    501,

    210,

    980,

    801,

    561,

    260,

    770,

    911,

    361,

    460,

    720,

    771,

    0324

    -

    fi

    0,41

    0,30

    0,41

    0,52

    0,50

    0,34

    0,26

    0,51

    0,51

    0,31

    0,35

    0,70

    0,50

    0,52

    0,36

    0,68

    25

    fi

    0,

    620,

    620,

    630,

    900,

    660,

    680,

    621,

    130,

    960,

    851,

    361,

    151,

    121,

    101,

    650,

    8326

    0,28

    0,30

    0,30

    0,48

    0,11

    0,08

    0,24

    0,40

    0,29

    0,15

    0,18

    0,19

    0,15

    0,25

    1,10

    0,08

    27

    1,71

    1,95

    1,97

    2,09

    1,68

    1,70

    1,87

    1,85

    1,98

    1,78

    2,51

    2,29

    1,68

    2,05

    1,90

    1,67

    28

    &

    fi

    1,

    451,

    441,

    141,

    721,

    541,

    251,

    290,

    820,

    730,

    901,

    851,

    241,

    392,

    052,

    452,

    1729

    0,61

    0,31

    0,45

    0,47

    0,60

    0,26

    0,94

    1,15

    1,90

    0,37

    0,26

    0,24

    0,23

    0,27

    0,17

    0,18

    30

    fi

    0,40

    0,36

    0,41

    0,44

    0,27

    0,42

    0,36

    0,34

    0,34

    0,47

    0,61

    0,54

    0,41

    0,54

    0,31

    0,31

    31

    1,00

    1,02

    1,22

    0,87

    0,73

    0,86

    1,05

    0,91

    0,74

    0,63

    0,78

    0,76

    0,58

    0,91

    0,77

    0,69

    32

    -

    2,74

    1,72

    2,11

    2,74

    3,45

    2,33

    1,81

    2,48

    2,92

    1,95

    1,82

    2,19

    2,47

    3,14

    2,29

    2,15

    33

    2,04

    2,14

    1,98

    1,90

    1,85

    2,44

    2,21

    2,08

    2,61

    2,25

    2,34

    2,71

    2,48

    2,52

    2,52

    2,36

    34

    2,

    733,

    484,

    313,

    392,

    632,

    523,

    243,

    503,

    423,

    614,

    144,

    104,

    573,

    964,

    183,

    1635

    fi

    1,06

    1,38

    1,21

    1,43

    0,95

    1,13

    1,53

    1,59

    1,15

    1,20

    1,24

    1,45

    1,24

    1,04

    1,04

    0,99

    36

    0,91

    1,04

    0,99

    1,04

    0,69

    1,16

    0,93

    0,63

    0,65

    1,10

    0,75

    0,68

    0,73

    0,76

    0,58

    0,52

    37

    -

    1,

    621,

    921,

    772,

    161,

    301,

    881,

    802,

    031,

    481,

    661,

    931,

    961,

    671,

    781,

    982,

    0238

    1,87

    2,45

    1,91

    1,10

    1,84

    1,84

    1,47

    1,14

    1,27

    1,27

    1,95

    1,79

    2,18

    1,81

    1,30

    1,10

    39

    0,42

    0,35

    0,98

    0,60

    0,48

    0,64

    0,52

    0,64

    0,63

    0,37

    0,59

    0,43

    0,40

    0,41

    0,32

    0,32

    4

    1,25

    1,35

    1,29

    1,56

    1,40

    1,30

    1,20

    1,41

    1,00

    0,85

    0,66

    0,85

    0,85

    0,98

    1,05

    0,82

  • 1998

    fi fi

    15-64 1996-

    1999 (1,7% , 0,75%

    3,2% ). -

    : fi-

    -

    , -

    fi fi

    , , -

    , fi

    ( -

    fi fi

    3,1%),

    fi, -

    . fi, fi-

    fi 15-64 -

    fi (0,95%), -

    , fi ,

    fi 2,6 -

    . fi,

    , fi -

    fi

    fi ,

    (fi 66,4% 1995 69,3%

    1999).

    , ,

    (EU ad hoc labour market

    surveys) 1999

    fi fi -

    ,

    , -

    .7 fi fi

    fi

    -

    fi fi, -

    , fi fi -

    fi. -

    :

    : fi fi-

    fi 1% ( 5%

    fi)

    1994 (fi 3% fi ).

    fi fi (-

    fi

    ), fi, 14%, .

    fi fi fi, (8%).

    fi,

    . (

    fi 0 100)

    fi -

    , fi

    fi fi -

    fi fi fi fi

    ( 10, 14 ),

    fi fi -

    fi fi,

    ( 21, 13

    ), o fi.

    fi

    fi ,

    fi -

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 11

    7 4 fi ( 1999, , 2000) European Economy Supplement B. 1994 1989. , fi (fi ), fi (. . , fi..). fi, . , , 1/1995, 1995, EU, Ad Hoc Labour Market Survey, 1995, fi - European Economy-Reports and Studies, No. 3, 1995.

  • fi fi

    (. 2).

    fi fi

    fi , fi

    fi

    (. 3). -

    , fi -

    , -

    , -

    . -

    fi fi -

    1989-1994-1999 -

    (fi-

    ), -

    fi fi 40

    . 1892/90.

    : fi

    fi fi

    (33%, 37%). -

    fi fi 6% (:

    11%). -

    (57,

    56), 1994

    1999,

    . , -

    fi fi fi

    . -

    fi fi 2% -

    , fi -

    fi fi -

    fi .

    ,

    86

    fi (: 55, : 71), fi

    ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0012

    fi:

    ) : fi fi 10 14 14 21 13 13

    ) 7 6 6

    fi , fi:

    ) 24 32 34

    ) fi , : fi 18 22 23 19 35 38

    ) fi , : 42 33 38 27 31 35 19 20 23

    2

    ( )

    : EU ad hoc labour market surveys 1999.

  • 42, fi

    fi fi fi,

    (57).

    : fi fi

    9% (: 17%), fi -

    fi fi (25%,

    9% ),

    fi -

    fi.

    fi

    fi . -

    fi-

    fi

    fi fi

    fi fi fi,

    ( -

    fi 5 8, 8 ).

    fi

    fi fi

    , -

    ,

    -

    ( )

    fi fi (-

    48 46 ).

    ,

    -

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 13

    94 71 72(1994=88)(1989=64)

    % 77 74 75(1994=86) (1994=72)(1989=52) (1989=70)

    % 24 42 19 18(1994=23) (1994=14)(1989=14) (1989=10)

    % 2 26 34 36

    % 3 48 28 26

    % fi fi 4 0 6 5

    % :

    34 7 7 54 35 35

    (1994=31)

    25 6 5 31 13 12

    23 2 1 26 9 9

    18 3 2 26 15 15

    3

    : EU ad hoc labour market surveys 1999.

  • (. -

    4).

    : , 50%

    -

    -

    (

    fi ),

    fi fi 30%.

    , 69% -

    fi

    fi (36% ),

    12% fi-

    fi

    (fi ). fi ,

    70% fi (: 67%)

    30% (: 33%). , -

    fi fi-

    fi

    - fi fi,

    fi -

    (74% 68%),

    fi fi

    (25% 27%), fi-

    fi (40%

    53%) (19% 30%),

    -

    (20% 40%).

    -

    -

    , fi -

    fi

    , ,

    fi

    fi. -

    :

    , fi

    fi fi

    fi fi, fi -

    fi fi

    fi fi

    -

    fi. fi fi

    fi

    .

    , fi fi

    fi , -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0014

    fi , fi:

    ) 48 43 44

    ) fi , : fi 46 38 41 44 46 50

    ) fi , : 44 51 58 34 42 47 28 24 24

    4

    ( )

    : EU ad hoc labour market surveys 1999.

  • (

    fi)

    , -

    fi fi .

    fi fi

    fi 50%

    1989-1999, -

    fi

    fi ( fi

    fi).

    fi fi, fi

    fi fi, -

    fi

    - fi

    ( -

    ,

    ). fi,

    fi fi ( 92%) -

    fi.

    (

    fi), fi fi

    ( ) -

    fi, -

    fi ,

    fi.

    -

    fi -

    fi.

    ,

    fi (, -

    fi, fi -

    fi), -

    . , fi fi

    fi , -

    , -

    fi

    ( )

    fi. fi, -

    fi -

    fi

    fi.

    , , fi

    fi fi -

    fi fi

    fi

    fi

    fi -

    . fi

    fi (. fi,

    Phillips -

    fi NAIRU,

    , fi , 15,

    2000) fi -

    fi fi-

    fi (NAIRU) fi 1999

    9,7% 10,7% (

    ), fi

    fi -

    (11,7%).

    -

    fi

    fi fi

    fi fi

    Cranfield University.8

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 15

    8 fi . . (fi ). - fi ( fi: ) -, 5.6.2000.

  • fi fi -

    fi fi 200

    1993,

    1996 1999. ,

    -

    fi (. ,

    , fi-

    , fi,

    , )

    1996 1999. , fi fi

    (25% ) fi fi

    fi

    1996. (

    13 ), fi -

    -

    fi fi 5%

    (

    fi) fi fi -

    5 6 .

    , fi fi fi9

    -

    123

    -

    fi fi -

    . fi :

    () o 92% fi

    fi

    -

    fi .

    fi , -

    fi 72%. () 87%

    fi .

    fi -

    fi 60%. () -

    fi fi (62%)

    fi -

    fi .

    fi ,

    fi 53%.

    fi (

    ),

    fi fi -

    fi -

    fi. :

    (1) ,

    -

    fi fi

    ,

    .

    (2)

    (fi

    ) .

    (3) fi

    fi -

    ,

    -

    -

    fi fi (

    )

    .

    (4) fi

    -

    -

    (tax wedge),

    fi fi -

    fi -

    . (, , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0016

    9 , 27.7.2000.

  • fi fi fi

    fi.)

    (5)

    fi , -

    fi .

    -

    , -

    fi fi,

    fi, fi, fi

    .

    ,

    fi

    .

    3. fi fi 1996-2000

    () . 2434/96

    fi. fi -

    , (-

    ) fi (fi

    , -

    fi

    fi ,

    fi ).

    -

    fi/ ( fi -

    -

    fi),

    fi

    , -

    fi, -

    fi

    fi .

    :

    fi fi-

    50 ,10

    fi

    10 .11 , -

    fi

    fi. , -

    fi fi fi fi

    . , 2000 -

    (fi -

    ) fi -

    ,12

    2001.

    , (fi

    , fi

    -

    fi ), fi

    . 2000

    166.500 -

    ,13 74% 225.691 fi

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 17

    10 fi .11 . fi fi () 2000.12 . , 14 29.12.2000.13 fi , 160.000. , 3.000 . - fi ( .. 358 359/1997, fi fi . 2434/1996 - .. 241 242/1998, 73 . 2676/1998 20 . 2736/99).

  • -

    1999. -

    ,

    ,

    -

    .

    , 2000

    90.000 ,

    90.000 20.000 .14 ( -

    fi-

    2000.)15

    .16 fi

    fi 60%

    373.196 fi

    (1.1-1.6.1998)

    ,17 , -

    , fi fi -

    fi

    650.000. -

    fi 2000 -

    , -

    ,

    fi

    15.11.2000

    fi -

    31.12.2000.18

    () . 2601/98

    fi

    ,

    ,

    fi, fi

    fi

    .

    fi. , -

    ,19 -

    1994-99

    17.000

    .

    () . 2639/98

    ( 1998)

    -

    fi

    fi . ,

    .1892/1990

    fi

    fi

    fi,

    . -

    , -

    (

    )

    fi ( -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0018

    14 - 2000, , 4.2.2000.15 20 . 2736/99 .16 2000 3.000 - .17 fi fi - , - .18 . , 7.11.2000, Athens News,19.11.2000, , 14.12.2000. ( , . , 31.12.2000.) fi -fi , fi fi fi 1997( fi .. 358/97).19 , 19.2.2000.

  • ,

    fi, , , ..).

    , -

    -

    . -

    . 2639/98, fi -

    88/99 ( -

    93/104/

    fi ), 136/99 (

    ) 160/99 ( -

    ).

    fi,

    :

    -

    fi ()

    ( ,

    -, , , -

    , , --

    ).

    1999 fi

    fi ( fi

    ) 11.000 -

    .20 fi

    ( fi )

    fi -

    , : (1)

    fi

    -

    fi (fi)

    (2) -

    ( . 2601/98)

    (fi

    2.9.1998-31.12.2001) -

    -

    fi .

    -

    , 1999 -

    190.311 -

    fi (fi 163.573

    fi, 3.194

    fi, 15.553

    7.991

    ). , 28,8% -

    1999 -

    fi.21

    - -

    (),22 42% -

    fi, 24%

    fi,

    20% fi

    ( ),

    fi fi

    fi -

    , , 84% -

    fi . 2639/98

    -

    .23

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 19

    20 . 2000. , fi . fi-. - fi (. 2000) -, , 9 16.7.2000.21 . 2000, 30.7.2000.22 . fi 1999, , ,17.4.2000.23 fi, . . , : fi (, , . 8), 2000.

  • , fi

    ( ) -

    -

    fi .24

    50

    .25

    15.11.2000

    fi () .

    (fi -

    . 2639/98 fi

    fi

    4.)

    () 63 . 2676/98 ( -

    )

    fi -

    , fi 2001.

    () 4, . 13, . 2753/99

    -

    fi : -

    fi,

    17.11.1999-31.12.2001, 50%

    fi -

    , , fi

    fi fi ( fi

    ), fi

    .

    fi fi

    , ,

    , fi -

    fi fi

    fi

    fi (. 4).

    () 2000, 14

    . 2837/2000 -

    ( 2000)

    fi fi fi fi

    () -

    (-

    ) fi .

    6,67%

    ( fi -

    fi) fi fi fi -

    , fi fi.

    -

    8% (

    2000, 466

    .

    10.401 . -

    ), fi

    . -

    fi,

    fi 1.9.2000, 1.1-

    31.8.2000

    fi 2001.

    fi fi,

    . -

    ,

    45-50 . . .26

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0020

    24 30.7.2000.25 30.7.2000.26 fi Eurostat (. EricMarlier Sophie Ponthieux, Low-wage employees in EUcountries, Statistics in Focus, Theme 3-11/2000, 2000), European CommunityHousehold Panel, fi 17% fi - 380.000 . fi , 82%, 310.000 , fi fi ( fi fi fi)., (, 14.11.2000), fi 17.500 fi - .

  • () 13.7.2000

    .

    . -

    4.9.2000,

    14.11.2000

    fi 24.11.2000

    19.12.2000.

    , fi-

    -

    4.

    , 2000

    fi fi

    fi 2000 ( 2000),

    fi 1998,

    -

    fi

    ,

    (

    fi

    1997). fi fi

    fi 2000 -

    fi 1999.

    4. fi :

    4. fi : fi,

    fi , -

    , fi

    -:

    31.3.2001 (fi

    1.4.2001 4

    fi) -

    , fi 9

    48 ,

    fi 8

    40 . fi

    , ,

    fi fi fi

    fi , fi

    ,

    fi ( fi -

    ) -

    25% .

    fi ,

    ,

    , -

    25% ( 60

    ),27 fi -

    fi fi28

    15 fi (

    ). fi fi

    fi -

    25%

    fi 15

    ( 30

    , fi

    ): ,

    fi fi

    46, fi (fi)

    fi

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 21

    27 , 100%. , fi 25% fi 60 - 50% fi 61 120 75% 120.28 , . , fi. 51 (1995),. 77-80. . fi. 54 (1998), . 318-320. - fi fi 50 1982 - 35 1985 30 1991. 1994 fi : fi - .

  • fi 0,65 , 39 . -

    fi fi 8

    -

    fi 15

    -

    , fi

    fi, 100%.

    () :

    . 1892/90

    ( 40),

    24 (. 12

    ) fi

    , . 2639/98 ( 3),29

    fi -

    .30 -

    ,

    fi

    , fi -

    , ,

    9 ,

    fi fi -

    (). , fi (-

    ) fi

    fi fi

    fi ,

    ,

    10 48 ,

    fi-

    fi ().31 fi

    fi ( ) -

    ,

    fi, 8

    40 :

    fi,

    8/40 ,

    . -

    fi fi fi-

    fi 20

    fi

    9 -

    48 :

    fi . , fi fi-

    -

    6 12

    48

    fi,

    .

    : fi

    fi . 2639/98 ( 2),32

    -

    fi . 1892/90

    ( 39).33 , -

    fi

    ( fi) -

    ( -

    fi) -

    ,

    fi fi

    , -

    fi. fi

    fi (.. 20 ). -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0022

    29 41 . 1892/90. 3 . 2639/98 fi 5 fi 2000.30 fi fi fi ( fifi) (fi ) 30.7.1986.31 fi fi .32 38 . 1892/90.33 fi 7 8 fi.

  • fi -

    fi . fi

    fi (), -

    fi fi -

    fi 1

    ,

    fi , 2000,

    1.940 , fi

    27,7% (

    6.989 . 2000). -

    ,

    : fi

    , fi

    -

    .

    ,

    .

    fi fi fi -

    fi -

    , -

    fi-

    -

    fi ( )

    -

    .34 fi

    fi , . 2639/98 fi

    fi fi-

    fi (-

    .

    2190/9435), fi fi fi,

    .

    ,

    :

    -

    fi -

    fi,

    -

    8 ( fi

    fi -

    , fi fi -

    ). -

    fi fi

    fi -

    fi fi.

    48

    fi . fi fi

    fi 25% fi

    fi (),

    1,25 ().36 , fi

    , -

    fi fi-

    40

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 23

    34 fi (fi, , , , , , fi, , - ..) - - fi: , , fi -, fi fi fi fi fi fi fi fi .... . . , - , , fi. 54 (1998), . 1303-1310. , . 10/21.2.2000, , fi. 56(2000), . 273-280.35 fi fi - 6 fi 4 , , fi 10 .36 40 , , 48 , 50 (fi - 8 25%). , 25%(=50/40).

  • . [2,25()]

    12,5% -

    fi [2()]

    , , -

    , fi

    ( 32

    ). fi,

    fi

    -

    , fi fi -

    . ,

    fi ,

    fi -

    fi

    fi

    ( fi

    fi fi).

    fi fi ,

    ,

    fi -

    fi

    . fi fi

    :

    -

    fi fi fi (,

    fi 3,

    ), fi -

    fi, fi

    25% -

    fi fi fi -

    (

    fi fi fi fi,

    fi -

    fi

    fi,

    fi fi fi

    -

    ,

    fi, fi fi

    . 4 ). fi-

    ,

    fi

    fi -

    fi -

    (. , 2).

    fi,

    fi -

    , ,

    fi, fi

    -

    (..

    ,

    , -

    fi ).

    , fi

    -

    ,

    .

    , fi

    fi fi-

    .37

    fi

    ,

    (. .. -

    fi )

    fi -

    . 1892/90 2639/98. -

    , fi,

    fi-

    . ,

    fi -

    , ,

    fi fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0024

    37 , . , 23.3.1997.

  • . fi-

    fi

    (.. )

    ,

    fi

    fi ( 2, . 1

    . 2639/98),

    -

    fi

    ( 2, . 13).

    fi

    fi

    .

    35 38

    fi-

    (fi Robien 1996 Aubry -

    1998)

    (fi 1.1.2000

    fi fi 20 )

    fi Aubry 1999, -

    fi -

    fi 1.1.2002. 35

    fi

    30.000 -

    -

    .

    fi

    205.000

    3.600.000 -

    ( 500.000

    35

    fi fi 1998).

    fi ,

    ( ),39 -

    fi

    .

    4. fi fi,

    , fi

    fi

    (. 2112/20 .. 16/18.7.20,

    fi

    fi -

    ) fi

    fi fi

    fi.

    fi

    , 2

    fi -

    ..., 24 -

    28 .

    5 -

    , 7 -

    fi

    , ... 125

    25 .

    fi fi

    . ,

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 25

    38 . : 1) Dure, rduction et ammagement dutemps de travail, , La documentation Franaise, 2000), 2) . Bernardo,Francia: lavorare meno per legge, Quale Stato, n. 1/2, 1998,3) Le Monde,20.5.2000, 1.6.2000, 27.6.2000, 1.7.2000, 16-17.7.2000, 4) Financial Times, 4.8.2000, 5) -, 30.7.2000, 6) OECD, Economic Outlook, 2000,. VII.39 fi Aubry 1998 -, . . - , Le Monde ( conomie), 10.10.2000 12.12.2000, fi - Travail et emploi, 82 83, 2000.

  • fi fi

    fi 3

    -

    fi fi 7% ,

    6 ,

    fi fi (3,5% -

    ). -

    , fi, fi: 33%

    17%.

    . 1387/83 -

    20 fi-

    fi

    75/129/ (

    ) : ()

    fi (

    -

    fi fi

    ) fi-

    (

    fi fi fi

    )40 () fi fi

    .41

    fi42 ,

    fi

    ,

    9 fi: fi

    fi 5 fi (

    ) 20-50

    , fi fi fi 1-

    4 fi (2%) 51-200 -

    ( fi 2% -

    fi 1500

    fi fi

    : 30 ).

    :

    , -

    (. 4). fi

    fi, fi -

    . fi

    , fi -

    2% -

    fi .

    -

    fi

    fi fi-

    fi

    . fi,

    -

    . fi

    fi ,

    fi : ()

    -

    . 1387 (

    ,

    , ..), fi-

    -

    fi ( .. 572/88

    .. 1/90 fi

    fi fi),43 () -

    fi ,

    , ,

    , .., fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0026

    40 G. Bertola, T. Boeri, S. Cazes, Employment protection andlabour market adjustment in OECD countries: evolving institutionsand variable enforcement, Employment and training papers o. 48,International Labour Office, 1999. . Annex C.41 fi fi , fi - fi- .42 . -, 2.7.2000.43 .. fi .

  • ( , -

    , fi

    , ..). , -

    fi fi

    (.. fi . 1892/90)

    fi , fi -

    fi fi fi, -

    . 2112/20,

    . -

    fi-

    .

    fi fi

    fi fi

    .

    fi fi

    , fi fi

    -

    .44 ,

    fi fi

    , fi

    fi fi

    .

    .

    -

    .45 , fi

    fi fi ( -

    ) , fi ,

    -

    / (

    ),

    fi , fi

    fi.

    Nickell, fi fi -

    fi. fi, fi ,

    fi

    fi-

    .46 Boeri, Layard Nickell

    fi

    fi

    fi fi ,

    fi fi

    , -

    fi fi -

    .47

    4. , , -

    , , fi

    , fi

    -

    ( fi -

    )

    (, , )

    , fi -

    . ,

    -

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 27

    44 Developments in and structural features of euro area labourmarkets, ECB, Monthly Bulletin, May 2000.45 O. J. Blanchard, Thinking about unemployment, Baffi Lec-ture, Banca d Italia, 16 1998.46 St. Nickell, Institutions and the workings of the labourmarket, Center for Economic Performance, LSE (paper preparedfor the annual World Bank Conference on DevelopmentEconomics), M 1999.47 T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, Welfare-to-work and thefight against long-term unemployment, - Blair D Alema fi , 2000.

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0028

    :

    fi

    .

    5

    :

    , 199

    0-19

    98

    fi

    (

    .)

    fi

    (

    .)

    fi

    fi

    fi

    fi

    -

    fi-

    -

    -

    -

    fi-

    -

    -

    (

    -

    )

    :

    fi

    /

    fi

    fi

    fi

    fi

    -

    fi-

    -

    -

    -

    fi-

    -

    -

    (

    -

    )

    1990

    3.11

    869

    .728

    4.80

    77.

    903

    6.20

    418

    3.01

    419

    1.42

    421

    1.12

    499

    .508

    127.

    685

    194.

    263

    152.

    644

    1991

    3.50

    178

    .272

    5.61

    79.

    451

    6.86

    921

    4.53

    722

    0.18

    225

    9.69

    111

    5.95

    114

    7.35

    222

    6.35

    317

    5.43

    5

    1992

    3.87

    086

    .487

    6.24

    69.

    236

    7.45

    523

    9.22

    923

    2.80

    325

    0.37

    313

    1.90

    717

    3.14

    822

    9.61

    919

    9.72

    1

    1993

    4.41

    198

    .568

    7.03

    711

    .453

    8.63

    827

    6.30

    026

    9.14

    830

    1.01

    714

    7.32

    719

    8.03

    327

    3.43

    423

    2.02

    8

    1994

    4.93

    411

    0.22

    57.

    942

    12.9

    3710

    .028

    311.

    566

    296.

    085

    320.

    876

    167.

    005

    230.

    209

    321.

    331

    271.

    782

    1995

    5.33

    811

    9.22

    08.

    915

    14.3

    6811

    .299

    345.

    641

    330.

    866

    348.

    759

    187.

    390

    257.

    510

    363.

    399

    313.

    548

    1996

    5.75

    312

    8.46

    09.

    538

    16.2

    4012

    .438

    375.

    813

    375.

    741

    400.

    567

    205.

    548

    286.

    095

    409.

    426

    348.

    158

    1997

    6.19

    513

    8.31

    610

    .315

    18.1

    4113

    .300

    409.

    078

    419.

    719

    438.

    283

    230.

    685

    313.

    461

    447.

    772

    373.

    244

    1998

    6.49

    214

    4.90

    010

    .705

    18.7

    1814

    .558

    428.

    799

    458.

    439

    474.

    974

    250.

    324

    333.

    675

    486.

    333

    406.

    548

    1999

    6.70

    314

    9.58

    3...

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ...

    2000

    6.98

    815

    5.94

    8...

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ...

    2001

    7.22

    116

    1.13

    8...

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ......

    ...

    1990

    1,54

    2,53

    1,99

    2,62

    2,75

    3,03

    1,43

    1,83

    2,79

    2,19

    1991

    1,60

    2,70

    1,96

    2,74

    2,81

    3,32

    1,48

    1,88

    2,89

    2,24

    1992

    1,61

    2,39

    1,93

    2,77

    2,69

    2,89

    1,53

    2,00

    2,65

    2,31

    1993

    1,60

    2,60

    1,96

    2,80

    2,73

    3,05

    1,49

    2,01

    2,77

    2,35

    1994

    1,61

    2,62

    2,03

    2,83

    2,69

    2,91

    1,52

    2,09

    2,92

    2,47

    1995

    1,67

    2,69

    2,12

    2,90

    2,78

    2,93

    1,57

    2,16

    3,05

    2,63

    1996

    1,66

    2,82

    2,16

    2,93

    2,92

    3,12

    1,60

    2,23

    3,19

    2,71

    1997

    1,67

    2,93

    2,15

    2,96

    3,03

    3,17

    1,67

    2,27

    3,24

    2,70

    1998

    1,65

    2,88

    2,24

    2,96

    3,16

    3,28

    1,73

    2,30

    3,36

    2,81

  • . ,

    -

    fi

    ( ). ,

    fi :

    fi ,

    . fi

    1990, fi fi

    (.

    5 . 28).

    fi

    ( fi

    ). fi

    fi fi (

    fi

    /), -

    fi -

    (

    ,

    ). fi , fi -

    , . 2639/98 fi

    fi fi fi -

    fi -

    fi -

    ( ,

    fi ). fi, -

    fi .

    fi fi -

    . , -

    (-

    -

    fi fi

    ),

    fi (.. -

    ). , fi-

    -

    . , -

    fi

    fi

    fi -

    .

    -

    fi fi

    , fi fi -

    -

    fi -

    , fi fi

    fi fi, fi -

    fi-

    . -

    48 fi fi fi -

    fi

    fi fi49

    fi -

    . fi fi

    fi fi

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 29

    48 . 1) F. Modigliani, J.P. Fitoussi, B. Moro, D. Snower,R. Solow, A. Steinherr, P. Sylos Labini, An Economists Manifestoon Unemployment in the European Union, Banca Nazionale delLavoro Quarterly Review, 1998, 2) E.S. Phelps, - ( ), 30 1997, 3) J. Dolado, F. Kramarz, S. Machin, A. Manning, D. Mar-golis C. Teulings, The Economic Impact of Minimum Wagesin Europe, Economic Policy, No. 23, 1996, 4) O.J. Blan-chard, fi..49 fi fi fi fi - fi fi, fi - fi.

  • fi ( -

    fi)

    fi ,

    -

    fi

    fi fi -

    fi

    . fi fi

    fi, -

    fi-

    fi fi

    fi. -

    fi fi

    fi

    . 2434/96 -

    . ,

    fi fi

    -

    ,

    -

    fi fi.

    fi -

    fi

    -

    ( fi -

    fi -

    -

    fi fi-

    ), fi -

    .

    -

    ,

    :

    () fi fi (. -

    ) fi -

    (. -

    fi

    )

    fi fi ,

    fi

    , -

    , , fi fi-

    . fi,

    . fi fi

    fi fi

    , , -

    -

    (..

    - ) -

    (.. fi -

    ) , ,

    . fi

    , (

    )

    fi fi fi.

    fi fi fi

    , fi fi

    ,

    . fi

    fi fi

    fi -

    (. fi -

    ,

    ),

    . fi

    fi -

    fi fi -

    fi ,

    (fi

    -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0030

  • fi fi -

    ).50

    () -

    fi

    fi,

    , -

    fi (

    fi) -

    fi fi , fi-

    , ,

    fi fi -

    fi fi fi, fi .51

    fi -

    -

    ( fi fi

    fi fi)

    -

    (in-work benefits)

    -

    fi (make work pay)

    fi fi -

    -

    fi fi-

    fi

    .52

    fi

    (fi fi

    fi) -

    .

    ( 2000),

    -

    -

    fi

    , fi -

    , -

    . -

    Working Families Tax Credit -

    Earned Income Tax Credit .

    fi fi

    ( ,

    fi ). fi

    fi .

    , -

    fi fi -

    , fi

    fi fi fi

    .

    fi fi-

    , fi

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 31

    50 . 1) J. Morley, Unemployment in the EU an American ora European Solution? Morley et al., Unemployment inEurope: The Policy Challenge, The Royal Institute of InternationalAffairs, Discussion Paper No. 73, 1998, 2) European Commission,Growth and Employment in the Stability-Oriented Framework ofEMU (Economic Policy Reflections in View of the Forthcoming 1998Broad Guidelines), European Economy, No. 65, 1998, 3) Modig-liani et al., fi..51 . Edmond Malinvaud, Les cotisations sociales la charge desemployeurs: analyse conomique, Conseil dnalyse conomique(fi ), 1998.52 . 1) OECD Economic Studies, No. 31, 2000/II (),2) Developments in and structural features of euro area labourmarkets, fi.., 3) OECD, Economic Outlook, 2000, fi..,4) T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, Welfare-to-work and the fightagainst long-term unemployment, fi.., 5) , fi , 23-24 2000, 6) Making Work Pay, The American Prospect,vol. 11, No. 15, June 19-July 3, 2000 (), 7) Le Monde,31.5.2000 ( - (travailleurs pauvres). -, fi fi , .M. Matsaganis, F. Papadopoulos P. Tsakloglou, Estimatingextreme poverty in Greece and the cost of eliminating it througha minimum income guarantee scheme, Discussion Paper 2000-02, Department of International and European Economic Studies,Athens University of Economics and Business, 2000.

  • . -

    Nickell, fi -

    fi

    . fi, fi

    , -

    -

    fi, fi -

    fi

    fi

    -

    .53 , -

    . ,

    ,54 -

    fi

    fi 5 12 ,

    fi. fi -

    fi: () fi -

    -

    fi ( 50%

    fi ) -

    fi, ,

    20-29 , fi

    fi ,55

    ()

    fi (

    fi fi). ,

    -

    fi. , fi

    40%

    50% ,

    fi 2/3

    fi.

    , fi,

    ( ) -

    ,

    fi fi , fi

    -

    , fi fi

    fi.56 , (fi

    1.1.2000) fi 3.432 .,

    49,1% ( fi 66,6%)

    (6.989 .),

    fi 3.630 . (51,9%

    ). fi

    fi -

    fi 10% fi

    , 2 fi-

    (4.118 .) 58,9%

    . fi, ,

    fi fi. , fi,

    -

    -

    . fi

    fi

    fi fi-

    , .. -

    , fi

    . fi -

    -

    ( fi

    fi fi -

    fi), fi fi-

    fi fi fi. -

    . , . fi

    . fi57 fi

    fi fi.

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0032

    53 St. Nickell, fi..54 fi .. 2961/54 fi1545/85, 1836/89, 1874/90, 1892/90 2224/94.55 2 . 1545/85.56 12 . 2224/94.57 . 52.

  • 4. fi

    -

    58 fi

    fi :

    ()

    , fi . fi, fi

    1.4.2001, fi ()

    fi 8 3

    (fi ),

    fi , fi fi -

    . fi -

    fi,

    fi

    fi (

    120 50% fi

    25%, 120 -

    75%), -

    fi 100% 150%.

    () fi-

    , -

    fi fi -

    , -

    fi fi -

    . -

    , fi fi -

    ,

    , ,

    , fi

    . fi,

    138 fi -

    fi fi -

    fi fi -

    , -

    fi fi fi-

    (138 ) fi-

    fi

    . fi fi

    -

    , fi

    fi ( , , -

    , ..). -

    fi-

    90-92

    , . fi 38

    .59 fi -

    ,

    /fi

    , fi-

    .

    ()

    fi. , -

    fi

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 33

    58 , fi ( ) 2001, (. , - fi -, 2000, . 35-36).59 , 45 46 . fi- 46 , fi - fi 1.840 (=4046) 1.748 (=3846)., .., 23 fi, fi- 38+6=44 ( fi 138=236), fi 23 fi fi 38-6=32 , fi 18 fi . fi, ..fi 12 , fi fi fi 38+11,5=49,5 (fi 1211,5=138), - fi - ( 4 ) fi 34 fi.

  • fi fi

    1/3 fi -

    ( 30.000 . ) 1 fi

    fi-

    , fi

    4 /. ,

    fi

    fi 4 /

    7,5%, fi fi

    .

    making work pay

    , fi

    , , -

    fi.

    , -

    fi.

    () fi

    fi

    , fi-

    fi, , fi

    1.4.2001 31.12.2003, 2

    (fi 13,33%

    11,33%), fi fi

    200.000 .

    fi .

    -

    fi fi. fi

    2000 -

    fi 156.000 227.000

    ., fi 1.1.2001 fi

    159.000 231.000 ., -

    ,

    . (

    fi ,

    . 6.)

    -

    . fi, 60 fi

    -

    fi

    .

    fi (25 . .

    fi ) fi fi

    fi, fi

    fi fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0034

    60 . , fi.., . 33-34.

    6.885 6.988 153.643 155.948 1 7.229 7.337 169.007 171.543 2 7.573 7.686 184.371 187.138 3 7.917 8.035 199.735 202.733 4 8.261 8.384

    7.573 7.687 169.007 171.543 1 7.917 8.036 184.371 187.138 2 8.261 8.385 199.735 202.733 3 8.605 8.734 215.099 218.328 4 8.949 9.083

    6

    1.7.2000

    ()

    1.1.2000

    ()

    1.7.20001.1.2000

    : . fi fi 25 .

  • fi -

    ( -

    -

    fi ). -

    fi fi -

    fi . -

    , fi fi,

    15% (fi 13,33%

    11,33%) -

    7% (fi

    28,56% 26,56%, . 7), -

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 35

    1 fi 5,3% (. 1469/84, 17, . 4).2 fi fi :

    (.. 2961/54). 4% (. 2,67% - . 1,33%). fi (. 2054/52, 2336/95), 1% fi. - fi fi (.. 3868/58). 2%, 1%, . - . fi 2% fi, fi fi . - fi fi fi fi (. 1836/89 16 .. 1/90). 0,15% fi. - fi fi fi (. 2224/94 15, 2335/95, 2434/96 1). 0,81% (. 0,71% - . 0,10%).

    : , fi 56, 1336, 1.6.2000.

    27,65

    fi 4,301 2,15 6,45

    fi 0,80 0,40 1,20

    13,33 6,67 20,00

    - - 3,00 3,00 6,00 6,00

    2 5,53 2,43 7,96 7,96

    fi 0,75 1,00 1,75 1,75

    0,25 0,25 0,50 0,50

    27,96 15,90 43,86 43,86

    fi 0,60 0,60 1,20 1,20

    fi 28,56 16,50 45,06 45,06

    , , fi ,

    :

    ) () 1,00 1,00

    ) ()

    1,40 2,20 3,60

    0,75 1,25 2,00

    ) fi ,

    5,00 2,50 7,50

    2,00 1,00 3,00

    7 (fi 1.1.1994)

    fi %fi

    fi

  • fi fi fi

    1,56% (fi 128,56 126,56).

    fi fi -

    1.600.000 , fi

    400.000 25%

    fi

    50% ,

    fi fi-

    fi 12,5%

    .

    , -

    -

    fi fi

    0,2% [= (1,56%) 0,125]. , fi

    fi

    fi /fi

    fi fi

    -

    .61 , fi

    fi fi,

    fi E. Malin-

    vaud (. 4).

    , fi fi

    200.000 . fi fi 210.000 .,

    5%,

    fi fi fi

    6,7%.

    () fi fi

    . fi

    2% fi 200 -

    . fi -

    20 49 -

    fi 5 4 , fi -

    50 200 ,

    2% ( fi 1 4 ),

    4 (. 8).

    fi fi -

    fi

    fi-

    (

    -

    fi -

    ). -

    ( fi)

    fi (-

    fi fi fi )

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0036

    61 , 15.11.2000, 15.11.2000.

    : fi - "" (.. fi 30, fi 29 fi), -fi fi "fi fi " (, fi 30, fi 30 fi 29 fi).

    20 - 50 9 5 (4)51 - 99 9 1 2 (4)

    100 9 2 (4)150 14 3 (4)200 19 4250 24 5300 29 6350 29 7400 29 8500 29 10600 29 12700 29 14800 29 16900 29 18

    1000 29 201100 29 221200 29 241300 29 261400 29 281500 29 30

    1500 29 30

    8fi fi ( 30 )

    (75/129 )

    :.1387/83( : )

  • 1989

    1999 (

    ).

    fi

    fi -

    . fi

    fi

    -

    fi ,

    -

    (fi

    , fi -

    fi fi ),

    -

    -

    -

    fi fi-

    (

    ). fi fi

    fi

    , fi .. fi

    fi (fi

    )

    , fi

    fi ( -

    fi fi fi -

    ), fi

    , fi , -

    fi, fi

    ,

    , -

    fi fi -

    fi

    fi - (, fi

    fi

    fi fi

    , , fi, fi

    fi).

    -

    fi fi

    fi

    fi -

    , fi

    fi fi

    fi -

    fi .62

    ,

    fi

    , fi -

    fi.

    5. fi-

    fi

    fi -

    . -

    fi, fi

    fi. fi fi-

    fi

    fi, -

    fi,

    . ,

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 37

    62 , . 61.

  • fi.63 -

    fi:

    fi

    fi

    fi fi. (...)

    fi fi

    .

    ,

    1962 fi-

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi -

    fi.64

    fi fi,

    fi

    . fi

    fi , (

    fi ) fi -

    fi fi

    fi

    fi ,

    fi -

    fi fi fi. -

    fi.65

    -

    fi -

    fi -

    fi fi fi.

    fi -

    fi. fi

    fi-

    fi -

    fi. fi

    ,

    fi -

    . fi

    , fi

    Youth Training Scheme New

    Apprenticeship

    , , fi

    fi 1997 Acuerdo

    Interconfederal para la Estabilidad en el Empleo

    .66

    , fi

    fi,

    fi -

    fi fi (NAIRU).

    ,

    ,

    , . fi :

    (

    )

    fi

    fi ,

    -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0038

    63 - fi fi Jean Pisani-Ferry Plein emploi, fi- 2000, Conseil d analyse conomique (. LeMonde, 6, 12 20.12.2000). - ( Forum), 24.12.2000.64 David Spector - Le Monde ( conomie), 4.7.2000.65 T. Boeri, R. Layard S. Nickell, fi..66 Travail et emploi: reconcilier flexibilit et securit: Jacques Freyssinet fi (18-19.2.2000, ) -fi . fi- (fi . ) ( Forum), 5.3.2000.

  • ,

    fi 67

    .68

    fi -

    /

    ,

    fi fi-

    12 -

    fi,

    ( -

    2001).

    fi

    fi-,

    fi -

    fi .69 fi,

    ( fi -

    , fi -

    ),

    fi

    , fi -

    ( fi -

    ) fi -

    fi.70

    ,

    ( )

    fi -

    .

    fi, fi,

    (-

    fi, , , ..),

    , ( -

    ) , -

    fi fi 10% 15%

    . fi

    ,

    fi

    ,

    fi

    .71 -

    , fi -

    fi 225.000

    ( fi ) ,

    , fi 110 .

    5,5%

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 39

    67 5-12 . . 2000, . 10, 56-57.68 . 2000, . 57.69 fi fi (convention UNEDIC) fi 6.12.2000 (fi fi ). , fi 1.7.2001, - fi fi (PARE plan d aide au retour l emploi) (PAP projet d actionpersonnalis), - . . Le Monde,8.12.2000, (LeGouvernement donne son agrment la convention UNEDIC) .70 fi - ( . 2434/96) ( . 2639/98). . , 3.71 , .1) . , . . , - : fi- , ( ), 1, 1997, .175-189, 2) . , , fi 1998, , . 228-238, 3) , , fifi, 16.3.2000, 4) . . , fi : - , , 2000, 5) . fi, : , , 2000, . 141-142, 154-155, 6) , , 2000, . 125.

  • fi fi

    28% fi .72

    , fi

    fi fi -

    . ,

    -

    fi fi -

    , -

    fi -

    fi-

    , -

    ( fi,

    65

    fi, 15-64 )73

    -

    fi (

    ) .

    , fi

    fi -

    -

    fi , -

    fi fi . -

    ,

    -

    ,

    fi -

    -

    fi fi

    fi. fi, -

    fi

    fi

    fi

    ,

    .

    , fi -

    .

    fi fi

    fi -

    . :

    fi

    ( -

    fi

    ,

    ).

    -

    (

    ).74

    (..

    -

    fi-

    ).

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0040

    72 fi fi , - fi fi , fi-, .73 fi ( 1990-91 . E. Bos et al., Worldpopulation projections 1994-95: estimates and projections withrelated demographic statistics, 1994), fi fi ( - ) fi 21,2% 1990 25,5%% 2000, 28,8% 2010, 33,3% 2020 40,3% 2030. . : -fi , , , 1997, . 1-17. - ( 1995), fi fi 25,5% 2000 29,1% 2010, 32,7% 2020 35,4% 2025. fi fi, fi fi - , fi - fi.74 , ( fi 35% 25%) - ( - fi 40% 35%).

  • -

    fi, () -

    .

    , fi fi -

    4,

    ,

    fi

    fi,

    fi fi fi-

    fi (

    ) -

    -

    .

    fi ,

    -

    fi, fi

    -

    , ,

    fi

    .

    ( .)

    : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 41

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0042

    ( fi )

    fi fi

  • : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 43

    : " " fi fi . , 8 5 ( 25%), - fi 3 "fi " ( 138 46 fi, fi 120 50% fi 18 75%, 4 . 4 fi 53,26%) 0,65 "fi " 75% 4,35 1,35 " " 150%. , 2 ( 7%, fi 28,56% 26,56%) fi, -

    fi fi 12,5% . fi fi - 1,56%, fi 0,2%. , ' 13,2% (1 -) 6,2% (2 ). fi 13,0% "1 " 6,0% "2 ", - fi. , fi fi .

    , fi 1 20 [(100+20)40=4.800 ], 2 12,5 - [(100+12,5)40=4.500 ]. fi fi 20% 12,5%, ' 20% 13,5%(fi fi ), 4% 2,7% fi fi , , 4,2% 2,9% ( fi fi fi ).

    1

    1 1

    48 48 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 (40x1)+(3x1,5326)+

    +(0,65x1,75)+(4,35x2,50)=56,61 13,2%

    50x100=5.000 56,61x100=5.661 13,2%

    fi fi ( ) 5.000x1,2856=6.428 (0,875x5.661x1,2856)+

    +(0,125x5.661x1,2656)=7.263 13,0%

    48 40 fi 100 120 ' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 40

    20% 50x100=5.000 40x120=4.800

    4% fi fi

    ( ) 5.000x1,2856=6.428 (0,875x4.800x1,2856)++(0,125x4.800x1,2656)=6.159

    4,2% 2

    1 1

    45 45 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 (40x1)+(3x1,5326)+

    +(0,65x1,75)+(1,35x2,50)=49,11 6,2%

    46,25x100=4.625 49,11x100=4.911 6,2%

    fi fi ( ) 4.625x1,2856=5.946 (0,875x4.911x1,2856)+

    +(0,125x4.911x1,2656)=6.301 6,0%

    45 40 fi 100 112,5 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 40

    13,5% 46,25x100=4.625 40x112,5=4.500

    2,7% fi fi

    ( ) 4.625x1,2856=5.946 (0,875x4.500x1,2856)++(0,125x4.500x1,2656)=5.774

    2,9%

    : 45 48 , fi

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0044

    : fi 48 ( ) , - 40 . ( fi ) , 38+6=44 (fi 40), fi 38-6=32 ( 40). , (0,65 "fi " 50% 3,35 " " 150%), (21,1 ), 38 40.fi fi ' 1,7% 8,65%,

    fi 8,45% fi 10,55%. ( -, fi fi .)

    1

    1 1

    48 48 fi 100 100

    ' (40x1)+(8x1,25)=50 (40x1 44 )+ +(0,65x1,50)+(3,35x2,50)=49,35

    1,3% 50x100=5.000 49,35x100=4.935

    1,3%

    40 33=[(100 x32 )++(21,1 x38 )]/121,1

    fi 100 121,1 ' 40 40

    0% 40x100=4.000 40x121,1=4.844

    21,1%

    ' 45 44,23 1,7%

    4500 4.889 8,65%

    fi fi ( ) 4.500x1,2856=5.785 (0,875x4.889x1,2856)+

    +(0,125x4.889x1,2656)=6.274 8,45%

    : fi ( )

    +

  • : ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 45

    : fi 45 ( ) , - 40 . ( fi ) , 38+6=44 (fi 40), fi 38-6=32 ( 40). , (0,65 "fi " 50% 0,35 " " 150%), (21,1 ), 38 40.fi fi ' 5,3% 4,7%,

    fi 4,5% fi 10,55%. ( , fi fi .)

    2

    1 1

    45 45 fi 100 100 ' (40x1)+(5x1,25)=46,25 (40x1 44 )+

    +(0,65x1,50)+(0,35x2,50)=41,85 9,5%

    46,25x100=4.625 41,85x100=4.185 9,5%

    40 33=[(100 x32 )++(21,1 x38 )]/121,1

    fi 100 121,1 ' 40 40

    0% 40x100=4.000 40x121,1=4.844

    21,1%

    ' 43,12 40,84 5,3%

    4.312 4.514 4,7%

    fi fi ( ) 4.312x1,2856=5.544 (0,875x4.514x1,2856)+

    +(0,125x4.514x1,2656)=5.792 4,5%

    : fi ( )

    +

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0046

  • fi 1

    .

    .

    1.

    fi -

    fi 11 1 1999 -

    -

    .

    fi, -

    -

    ,

    ,

    . ,

    , fi

    fi . -

    ,

    fi fi .

    fi

    1999 10%, fi -

    fi 13,5 . .

    , fi

    fi (9,1%), -

    fi 16 . .

    , ,

    fi fi ,

    . fi fi fi -

    fi fi

    , fi .

    ,

    fi , -

    fi -

    .2

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 47

    1 fi -. Heather Gibson, fi, fi .2 fi fi fi - (Blanchard, 1997).

  • fi fi

    fi fi

    .

    -

    , fi .

    fi

    .

    fi

    -

    - -

    fi -

    .

    2.

    .

    . 1

    1970-1999.

    . . -

    -

    , fi -

    (1973 1979)

    90,

    fi -

    . 1992

    , fi -

    , fi -

    1999 fi

    (4,2%). -

    , fi

    (2-3%)

    fi, .

    fi 90, fi -

    fi -

    fi -

    fi, ,

    fi

    1999 4,7%,

    fi . .

    , , -

    fi . fi

    , fi

    fi (2-3%),

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0048

  • .

    , fi

    ,

    fi

    . , -

    fi

    80, fi fi -

    fi fi

    10,4% 1986.

    80

    fi,

    8%

    90. fi

    ,

    fi ,

    ,

    11%

    90. fi 1997, fi -

    , -

    -

    fi fi.

    fi fi 9,1% 1999

    fi 8,2% 2000.

    fi, -

    fi

    fi -

    /. fi-

    -

    , fi

    fi fi -

    . . , -

    fi

    , fi fi

    , fi fi -

    fi fi , ,

    (Bean, 1994b).

    fi fi

    ,

    , -

    fi -

    :

    fi fi

    fi ( fi -

    , Krugman, 1994), -

    fi

    ,

    fi fi fi fi,3

    fi

    , -

    ... fi fi -

    .

    fi fi fi

    fi fi.4 -

    , fi -

    , fi

    , fi

    , , fi ,

    -

    .

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 49

    3 , fi fi fi , - fi . fi, fi - fi fi fi fi. Blanchard - fi fi fi fi fi, -, fi . , - fi fi , , -fi -fi fi .4 fi NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), . fi fi - fi fi fi , fi fi 70, fi 80 (Katz and Krueger, 1999).

  • -

    fi -

    fi -

    , fi -

    .

    fi fi -

    (. Sabethai, 1998):

    Modigliani (1997), fi 11%

    fi , 9%

    fi 2% -

    . Wyplosz (1997),

    fi (3-4%

    7-8%). (1998),

    9% ,

    fi, fi fi fi, 4%

    fi -

    fi

    fi , 5% -

    ,

    fi -

    . ,

    (OECD, 1998) fi

    , fi fi -

    fi

    fi,5

    .

    -

    ,

    fi ,

    fi .

    Nickell (1997),

    -

    fi ,

    fi

    ,

    -

    . , fi fi

    fi

    . ,

    fi fi fi .

    .

    2 fi -

    (,

    , . , ,

    ). Nickell (1997),

    fi

    (.. , )

    -

    . . fi ,

    -

    , fi

    fi fi fi

    .

    -

    fi

    ,

    . -

    .

    fi

    fi, fi

    .

    fi

    , fi fi

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0050

    5 fi fi fi fi fi -fi. fi Phillips ( ) fi fi fi fi fi .

  • .

    fi -

    .

    -

    fi 41%

    90 46% 1999.

    fi

    fi

    fi. fi (Gibson, 1998)

    fi

    fi

    fi

    fi, -

    fi -

    fi

    , fi-

    -

    : (, ,

    ) (fi fi

    30%) (, -

    , , , )

    ( fi 50%).6 ,

    , fi

    . , -

    fi -

    fi . -

    , fi fi

    fi

    fi . -

    fi

    .

    fi , ,

    fi , ,

    , fi

    fi

    fi 50%

    70% fi .

    fi fi

    fi fi -

    . Bean (1994a)

    fi

    fi

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 51

    6 fi , fi . ( fi 10%).

  • 7 1979 1988. -

    fi -

    1988 ,

    1979, fi

    , fi -

    .

    fi -

    fi

    . , fi

    fi .

    , fi fi

    fi

    fi

    fi -

    . . , , -

    fi fi fi -

    fi , fi

    (-

    )

    (). fi fi, .

    fi -

    fi

    , fi

    . -

    fi

    ,

    fi fi fi

    .

    , fi fi-

    fi

    .

    fi

    fi fi.8

    , fi fi -

    ,

    fi 67%, fi

    -

    fi -

    .

    -

    . ,

    ,

    fi fi

    fi,

    fi. ,

    fi Siebert (1997), 1970

    1996 . 47 -

    (

    fi 58%),

    18 (-

    fi 12%). ,

    Glyn (1995) fi 1973

    1990 .

    fi fi 2%,

    fi 0,5%.

    fi. fi fi

    . , -

    fi fi fi

    fi fi fi-

    ,

    fi fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0052

    7 fi fi fi . fi () - , fi fi fi, () ( ) .8 fi fi fi fi (fi fi ) fi .

  • . , .

    fi

    fi ,

    fi ,

    fi -

    (OECD, 1999).

    3.

    -

    -

    , fi fi

    fi ,

    .

    fi fi -

    . -

    . Bean

    (1994a) fi fi-

    fi

    . -

    fi fi -

    , -

    fi

    . fi,

    3 (. 54),

    -

    -

    , -

    .

    -

    fi fi ( ) fi-

    (fi ).9 PN

    -

    -

    .

    , fi fi

    fi ,

    fi -

    fi

    fi. , fi fi,

    fi

    fi ,

    fi. WW

    .

    ,

    fi -

    fi

    . , -

    ,

    fi

    -

    -

    (

    fi ). fi

    -

    -

    ,

    .

    PN WW

    fi fi fi-

    (fi fi-

    ). fi

    fi fi

    fi fi .10

    ,

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 53

    9 , fi fi, - .10 (OECD, 2000) fi fi ( PN WW) fi - .

  • -

    fi

    .

    ; fi -

    ,

    fi fi

    ,

    fi

    . -

    (.. -

    ) -

    (..

    ). fi

    fi fi -

    fi fi

    , fi . -

    . -

    fi

    ,

    PN WW

    3

    .

    ,

    fi

    . , -

    . -

    fi fi -

    ,

    fi fi

    fi

    fi -

    (fi ).

    fi fi

    ,

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0054

  • .

    ,

    ,

    -

    , fi ,

    ,

    -

    , , , fi .

    fi

    fi fi (reservation

    wage), ,11

    fi fi

    fi,

    fi -

    fi. fi

    70 fi

    fi (Siebert, 1997):

    -

    , fi

    , fi fi

    fi

    fi,

    , fi fi-

    fi

    fi

    fi .

    fi fi fi ,

    (net

    replacement ratios),

    fi

    ( fi fi) fi

    fi ,

    fi 41% 60% .

    81% 100%

    , fi 21% 40%

    . (ECD, 1996).

    fi

    fi .

    . fi

    fi,

    54 , 33

    32 .

    , 10 .

    ,

    . 70 80

    fi

    ,

    fi , . ,

    fi 80.

    ,

    fi -

    (OECD, 1994), fi -

    fi fi.

    . , -

    fi

    70 80.

    ,

    fi, -

    , fi fi

    fi-

    .

    fi

    fi

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 55

    11 O fi fi fi - fi .

  • (, , -

    , , ).

    fi ,

    fi fi

    70

    80. fi :

    , fi

    fi fi .

    fi

    fi fi fi-

    fi fi fi. , fi

    fi fi ,

    ( )

    fi fi fi fi

    fi

    fi.

    -

    (.. Layard et al., 1991, OECD, 1994

    Nickell, 1997). fi -

    fi

    . fi -

    fi

    fi (. OECD, 1991, Nickell,

    1997). fi fi, -

    fi , -

    fi fi

    (Card and Krueger, 1995). ,

    fi ,

    , -

    , fi -

    , fi fi

    (Dolado

    et al., 1996).

    fi -

    fi

    ,

    fi

    fi

    fi -

    .

    , fi , -

    1% fi

    1%, -

    fi . ,

    fi . , fi-

    fi fi

    (OECD, 1994).

    fi-

    .

    fi

    fi 70

    fi , fi

    .12

    , -

    fi 26,5% -

    1970 42,1% 1997.

    , -

    ,

    10,5% 1970,

    16%. fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0056

    12 fi - fi -.

  • , fi

    ,

    ,

    fi .

    -

    . -

    fi fi

    (-

    : 7,9% 33,5%) (:

    21,1% 21,1%),

    fi fi (: 33,5%

    18,6% : 46,1% 10%).

    fi -

    fi

    . fi

    fi

    .

    ,

    fi . -

    , fi -

    .

    -

    (Nickell, 1997 Bean et al., 1986),

    -

    . Bean et al.

    (1986), , fi

    10 -

    25%

    2

    .

    Siebert (1997),

    .

    , , fi fi

    .

    fi .

    fi fi

    fi

    . fi fi

    , fi

    -

    .

    fi

    . ,

    fi

    fi , .

    fi fi

    ,

    (. Freeman, 1995

    Krugman, 1994).

    , , fi

    (Gibson, 1998, Nickell, 1997): ,

    fi , fi

    -

    fi. , fi

    fi -

    fi fi

    70 80 fi fi, 60,

    , fi Morley (1998), -

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 57

  • fi

    fi

    -

    . , . (

    . ) -

    -

    fi fi fi, . , -

    ( fi 100%)

    . fi

    70,

    . ,

    fi

    -

    fi-

    fi.

    fi

    M

    -

    . , -

    fi

    fi -

    . fi

    ( . ), -

    fi fi -

    fi . Nickell (1997, . 63) -

    fi

    ,

    fi -

    fi . fi -

    fi fi ,

    (70-85%).

    . ,

    (15%). fi

    , Nickell

    -

    , fi -

    fi -

    .

    fi fi

    fi 70% fi fi .

    Nickell

    1983-1994 fi

    fi -

    .

    ,

    fi,

    . fi

    . , fi

    fi

    fi fi fi -

    ,

    , fi

    ( fi -

    , . ). -

    fi Nickell fi fi fi

    -

    fi fi

    .

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0058

  • ,

    fi

    fi , fi,

    -

    -

    .

    fi fi -

    . fi -

    ,13 -

    fi fi

    , fi -

    .

    . fi

    fi fi

    -

    . (OECD, 1994) fi

    fi fi

    . (1), fi

    fi

    .

    , fi

    ,

    -

    . , -

    fi fi

    3.

    fi fi

    fi

    .

    Calmfors and Driffill (1988) fi

    fi

    -

    -

    . ,

    fi fi -

    -

    ,

    fi .14

    Calmfors Driffill, , -

    ,

    fi

    . fi

    , . -

    , , -

    : -

    fi -

    .

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 59

    13 fi fi . , fi fi fi (European Commission, 1998b).14 fi fi fi - fi - fi fi - . , ( - ), fi fi fi - . , fi ( ) fi fi, fi .

  • fi -

    fi,

    fi,

    fi fi fi fi

    . -

    , fi-

    fi fi fi

    fi

    fi,

    fi , fi

    .

    fi

    ,

    fi fi

    fi fi .

    fi fi -

    , fi

    (hysteresis).

    fi, fi -

    . ,

    fi -

    , fi fi fi

    fi. fi

    :

    fi fi

    (insiders-outsiders) fi-

    .

    ,

    fi -

    , -

    . fi

    fi fi

    fi -

    , fi

    (fi )

    . ,

    (

    fi) fi

    ( fi fi

    ), fi -

    .

    ,

    (. ean, 1994a).

    fi

    fi fi

    fi , fi

    fi fi

    .

    fi fi

    fi

    , fi fi

    -

    ,

    fi fi .

    ,

    fi

    -

    . , -

    fi fi

    , fi

    fi

    fi ,

    fi -

    fi -

    fi . Bean (1994a)

    -

    fi

    (

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0060

  • ) fi

    fi

    . , fi -

    fi fi fi fi

    fi (Machin

    and Manning, 1998).

    fi fi fi fi

    , fi -

    -

    .

    fi

    fi

    .

    4. -

    fi

    fi ( fi

    1994-99: 2,5%), fi-

    fi fi

    fi -

    fi .

    15 fi

    fi fi

    3,5% ,

    fi, 10 fi

    fi

    3% 4% fi -

    fi, 70%. -

    fi, -

    ( fi 7% ,

    22%-23% , fi

    19% ),

    fi-

    -

    -

    . fi fi

    1993 (European

    Commission, 1993),

    , fi -

    fi, fi fi fi

    fi 19%

    23%-24% ( fi -

    60),

    fi 3,5% fi

    1,5% .

    fi , fi

    fi fi fi ,

    fi fi -

    1993. ,

    fi

    90 (Sabethai, 1998). fi

    fi (European Commission,

    1998a, b) fi-

    fi -

    . fi fi

    ,

    fi fi -

    fi ,

    fi -

    fi -

    . fi

    -

    fi :

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 61

    15 . fi - fi, C 368/20.12.1999.

  • fi fi

    fi fi

    fi fi,

    -

    .

    fi fi

    , -

    fi

    fi-

    .

    , fi

    ,

    fi fi

    fi , -

    fi

    50 60

    .

    , fi fi ,

    -

    fi

    fi.

    , fi (

    ) -

    .

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi fi-

    ( 125-130) fi -

    , -

    -

    fi. , ,

    - -

    fi

    .

    -

    fi

    -,

    fi fi-

    fi

    fi fi fi

    . fi, fi fi-

    fi .

    , fi

    fi

    (European Commission,

    1998d).

    fi

    ( 1997)

    fi-

    . (OECD, 1999):

    fi fi fi

    fi fi

    ,

    -

    (Joint Employment Report). fi

    -

    fi (Employment

    Guidelines) fi . fi

    , fi

    , (Recommenda-

    tions) -.

    -

    1998 19 -

    fi 4 : (i)

    fi fi, (ii)

    , (iii)

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0062

  • fi (iv) fi-

    .

    -

    fi, - -

    ,

    fi -

    .16

    fi

    -

    fi -

    -

    fi, fi

    .

    17

    fi-

    ,

    , -

    fi.

    fi-

    , fi ,

    ,

    -

    , -

    .

    ,

    -

    fi

    ,

    fi

    .

    fi

    , fi

    fi -

    fi -

    fi .

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi -

    , fi -

    fi

    fi

    (European Commission, 1998c). -

    fi - ,

    fi

    fi fi -

    .

    fi ( fi

    ) fi

    (.. -

    fi ). fi fi

    fi

    , fi

    fi.

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 63

    16 fi fi 1998.17 : () fi fi fi , () fi -fi , () fi, -fi fi fi fi (. OECD, 1993).

  • ,

    fi, -

    , fi

    , -

    , fi

    . -

    fi ,

    , -

    fi

    fi

    .

    , fi -

    -

    fi fi

    fi fi, fi

    .. ,

    , -

    , .. -

    fi -

    (fi-

    ) -

    fi .

    fi

    fi fi -

    ,

    .

    fi

    50%

    fi 1993 (European

    Commission, 1998c). fi

    -

    fi, fi -

    fi

    fi .

    , fi , Nickell (1997)

    fi fi

    fi

    fi

    fi,

    fi -

    fi

    .18

    fi

    -

    fi-

    fi fi

    .

    fi fi

    fi .

    - -

    18-29 -

    1

    fi fi

    6 .

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0064

    18 fi fi - fi fi - : () - 2002 ( .. ) - 30-64 . () - fi 20% . fi - .

  • -

    -

    fi

    ( 2002).

    fi

    fi , fi,

    -

    -

    , fi

    fi

    fi fi 12 .

    fi

    fi -

    2 fi

    30-64 ,

    12 , -

    fi,

    -

    fi fi .

    -

    fi, -

    (European Commission, 1998c).

    fi fi fi

    fi

    fi

    . ,

    fi

    .

    fi

    fi

    fi

    -

    , fi

    (European Commission, 1999). -

    fi -

    fi 40,4%

    1998, fi

    . 54%. fi

    fi fi

    fi, . fi

    .

    (European Commission, 1998c) -

    ,

    fi :

    () ( -

    , , -

    ,

    fi ),

    fi

    -

    . , fi -

    fi fi,

    -

    fi ,

    fi

    fi fi , -

    ,

    fi

    fi: fi -

    fi fi

    , -

    fi

    fi,

    fi

    fi

    .

    () ,

    , -

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 65

  • fi

    fi ,

    fi

    . fi fi-

    fi fi

    .

    fi -

    fi fi fi

    fi, fi fi -

    . () ,

    ,

    , fi-

    fi

    -

    fi

    fi.

    -

    fi 1999 -

    ,

    -

    -

    -

    , -

    fi fi

    . fi -

    (European Commission, 1999),

    fi - -

    fi

    . -

    fi

    , -

    , -

    -

    .

    5.

    fi fi

    . fi

    fi

    -

    .

    ,

    fi fi -

    , -

    ,

    fi

    . ,

    .. ,

    fi

    ,

    , fi fi -

    -

    . ,

    , fi

    ,

    fi

    fi .

    fi fi

    fi

    . , -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0066

  • fi fi

    fi ,

    fi

    -

    -

    . ,

    fi

    fi

    fi, -

    , -

    fi.

    fi fi

    fi , -

    fi

    (auro et al., 1999). , -

    fi fi

    . fi -

    fi

    (

    fi fi)

    . fi -

    . , -

    -

    , fi -

    fi -

    fi fi fi

    fi -

    fi.

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 67

  • Bean, C.R. (1994a), European Unemployment: A Sur-

    vey, Journal of Economic Literature, XXXII, pp. 573-619.

    Bean, C.R. (1994b), European Unemployment, Two

    Decades Later. European Unemployment: A Retro-

    spective, European Economic Review, 38, pp. 523-34.

    Bean, C.R., Layard, R. and Nickell, S.J. (1986), The Rise

    in Unemployment: A Multi-Country Study, Econ-

    omica, Supplement 53, S1-S22.

    Blanchard, O. (1997), Macroeconomics, Prentice-Hall,

    New Jersey.

    Calmfors, L. and Driffill, J. (1998), Bargaining Struc-

    ture, Corporatism and Macroeconomic Performance,

    Economic Policy, 15, pp. 14-61.

    Card, D. and Krueger, A. (1995), Myth and Measure-

    ment: The Economics of the Minimum Wage, Princeton

    University Press, Princeton.

    Dolado, J., Kramarz, F, Machin, S., Manning, A.,

    Margolis, B. and Teulings, C. (1996), The Economic

    Impact of Minimum Wages in Europe, Economic

    Policy, 23, pp. 319-72.

    European Commission (1993), White Book on Growth,

    Competitiveness and Employment, Bulletin of the EU,

    Supplement 6.

    European Commission (1998a), Growth and

    Employment in the Stability-Oriented Framework of

    EMU. Economic Policy Reflections in View of the

    Forthcoming 1998 Broad Guidelines, European

    Economy, 65, pp. 164-210.

    European Commission (1998b), Economic Policy in

    EMU, edited by Buti, M. and Sapir, A., Oxford

    University Press, Oxford.

    European Commission (1998c), Report on Employment

    Ratios in 1998, Brussels.

    European Commission (1998d), Commissions

    Recommendations for the Broad Guidelines of the

    Economic Policies of Member States and the

    Community, Brussels.

    European Commission (1999), Commissions Recom-

    mendations for the Councils Recommendations on the

    Implementation of Member States Employment

    Policies, Brussels.

    Freeman, R.B. (1995), Are Your Wages Set in Beijing?

    Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9, pp. 15-32.

    Gibson, H. D. (1998), The Causes of Unemployment

    and Policy Solutions, ,

    .

    Glyn, A. (1995), The Assessment: Unemployment and

    Inequality, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 11, pp.

    1-25.

    Katz, L.F. and Krueger, A.B. (1999), The High-Pressure

    U.S. Labor Market of the 1990s, Brookings Papers on

    Economic Activity, 1, pp. 1-87.

    Krugman, P. (1994), Past and Prospective Causes of

    High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas

    City Economic Review, 4th Quarter, pp. 23-43.

    Layard, R., Nickell, S. and Jackman R. (1991), Unem-

    ployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the

    Labour Market, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0068

  • Machin, S. and Manning, A. (1998), The Causes and

    Consequences of Long-term Unemployment in

    Europe, Discussion Paper, Centre for Economic

    Performance, LSE.

    Mauro, P., Prasad, E. and Spilimbergo, A. (1999),

    Perspectives on Regional Unemployment in Europe,

    International Monetary Fund, Occasional Paper No. 177.

    Modigliani, F. (1997), -

    , .

    Morley, J. (1998) Unemployment in the EU - An

    American or a European Solution?, in Morley, A. et al.

    (eds) Unemployment in Europe: The Policy Challenge,

    The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Discussion

    Paper o. 73.

    Nickell, S. (1997), Unemployment and Labor Market

    Rigidities: Europe versus North America, Journal of

    Economic Perspectives, 11, pp. 55-74.

    OECD (1991), Employment Outlook, Paris.

    OECD (1993), Employment Outlook, Paris.

    OECD (1994), The OECD Jobs Study: Evidence and

    Explanations, Paris.

    OECD (1996), Employment Outlook, Paris.

    OECD (1998), Implementing the OECD Jobs Strategy:

    Progress Report, OECD Economic Outlook, June,

    pp. 171-8.

    OECD (1999), EMU: Facts, Challenges and Policies,

    Paris.

    OECD (2000), EMU: One Year On, Paris.

    Sabethai, I. (1998), Unemployment in Europe and the

    Risk of a Slowdown in Growth: Causes and Proposed

    Solutions Under the EMU Regime, , -

    , .

    Siebert, H. (1997), Labor Market Rigidities: At the

    Root of Unemployment in Europe, Journal of

    Economic Perspectives, 11, pp. 37-54.

    Wyplosz, C. (1997) Notes on Unemployment in

    Europe, , .

    fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 69

  • OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0070

  • , fi 1

    .

    1.

    1980

    fi

    fi -

    .

    -

    , fi

    1980 fi fi

    (. 1 fi ),

    fi 1990.2

    155% 1994

    1997. fi ,

    7 -

    , fi fi

    fi

    fi 1995

    . fi

    3 -

    1982-94,

    -

    fi fi fi.

    2 (. 73),

    -

    fi fi, -

    . -

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi fi , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 71

    1 fi - fi . - H. Gibson , . fi . - fi .2 fi.

  • 1982-87 -

    1990. fi

    fi 1961-97

    -

    fi fi.

    fi

    1980 -

    ,

    -

    -

    fi.

    , fi

    fi .

    -

    -

    . 1970

    1980, fi

    fi .

    -

    fi fi

    fi fi fi

    fi, fi-

    , fi , -

    fi fi,

    . fi fi

    fi -

    . fi

    -

    ,

    fi

    .

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0072

  • fi

    -

    . Darby

    Ireland (1994), Sefton and nt Veld (1999),

    Rockerbie (1997), Bai and Whitley (1997)

    Brunila (1997), fi -

    Blanchard (1985), fi-

    fi-

    fi

    . -

    fi

    -

    . -

    fi, -

    .

    fi -

    -

    -

    -

    fi -

    . fi -

    fi -

    -

    .

    fi fi

    -

    -

    15 fi . fi

    fi -

    fi fi

    -

    . fi

    , -

    -

    , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 73

  • -

    . , fi

    .

    2.

    fi -

    , -

    -

    fi fi-

    . fi 1987, fi

    fi fi

    , -

    , , fi

    fi .

    (..

    fi )

    fi (.. -

    ,

    fi fi

    -

    ).

    fi

    : -

    ,

    . -

    fi

    fi

    fi.

    , , -

    fi

    fi,

    fi

    fi . fi

    fi , -

    fi -

    fi fi.

    1980,

    fi fi

    , 1997-

    98

    . 1

    fi fi .

    fi fi

    ,

    1984, 1986-87

    fi fi -

    1993.

    10 , fi -

    ,

    .

    1993

    fi -

    .

    1984 fi -

    -

    ,

    9% 1990,

    -

    1993 -

    -

    1993. -

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0074

  • 1985.

    -

    . -

    1985.3 1987

    fi

    fi .

    , 1994

    fi, , -

    , -

    fi-

    , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 75

    : OECD, Economic Surveys, 1985-1998, , , 1987-1998.

    .

    fi .

    . fi fi . fi A fi - .

    fi - fi fi . fi fi fi fi. fi fi - . 4/5 fi . fi , fi. fi fi .

    fi fi.

    fi . fi - 9%.

    repos. fi fi fi fi . - , , . - (M). - , - , .

    9% fi fi -. fi fi 90% fi . .

    fi .

    fi (). fi fi . (M). fi3% (). fi fi ().

    fi 8 . . fi (). fi 8% ().

    . .

    1982

    1984

    1985

    1987

    1989

    1990

    1991

    1991-92

    1992

    1993

    1994

    1995

    1

    3 fi 1987. fi 1970, - fi fi fi(fi fi 1% ). 1997 3% .

  • fi (

    fi fi fi

    ), fi

    .4

    fi-

    fi

    -

    -

    .. 1988 (76%) 1995 (68%)

    fi

    -

    .

    , fi 17 . . 1986,

    250 . . 1997 (

    1988), fi fi 1.

    -

    (

    )

    fi

    .

    3. , fi

    -

    ( fi fi-

    , Friedman, 1957, fi-

    , Ando-Modigliani, 1963)

    -

    .

    , -

    fi

    fi fi

    fi,

    fi

    .

    fi fi -

    (),

    fi -

    fi,

    fi -

    . fi -

    fi fi fi

    . Hall (1978) -

    fi, -

    fi , -

    fi

    fi -

    -

    , fi -

    -

    .

    Blanchard (1985) fi-

    -

    fi , -

    fi fi

    fi

    fi -

    fi .

    , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0076

    4 , 1994 fi. fi 1989 fi- , 1996 - fi .

  • Blanchard Hall

    (1978). O Evans (1988)

    Blanchard (1985). -

    fi

    -

    .

    Evans (1988),

    fi -

    .

    fi

    fi fi ,

    fi -

    fi

    (0p), fi

    ( 1/p),

    . , -

    fi fi fi

    -

    .

    fi fi

    , -

    fi -

    .

    fi -

    , fi

    fi

    .

    fi fi -

    fi fi

    fi , fi-

    fi . fi-

    fi fi .5

    fi fi

    :

    max

    i=tlog(C ft )e ( + p)i (1)

    fi C ft -

    fi fi

    fi .

    fi fi :

    Wt = (1 + rt)(Wt-1 + Yt-1 C ft-1) (2)

    fi Yt, Wt, fi fi

    rt

    fi fi .

    fi ,

    fi

    fi, :

    C ft = (p + )[t + Wt] (3)

    fi Ht =

    t=0

    Yt(1 p)t

    t 1

    y = 0(1 + rt + j )

    Ht p+

    -

    fi . fi (3)

    fi -

    fi fi

    fi. fi

    fi.

    Hayashi, fi fi :

    C ft=(1+)C ft-1+[Wt(1+)(Wt1+Yt1)]+t (4)

    fi t = et + ut (1 + )ut1, = p+

    fi fi fi-

    , fi

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/00 77

    5 fi fi - , . fi fi.

  • fi .6

    fi Yt-1 (4) fi

    (2) :

    C ft = (1 + )(1 )C ft-1+ 1

    1 + 1 + rt

    Wt + t (5)

    (3), (4) (5) Euler

    fi -

    .

    fi fi

    Hall (1978) Evans (1988)

    fi , fi -

    fi fi

    fi fi -

    fi . ,

    (Campbell 1987, Hall and Mishkin, 1982, Camp-

    bell and Mankiw, 1989, 1991). -

    fi fi

    -

    . -

    -

    fi-

    fi -

    fi

    (Hayashi, 1982,

    Campbell and Mankiw, 1989, 1990).7

    ,

    , -

    fi fi,

    fi fi -

    .

    ,

    -

    fi fi.

    , fi fi

    , .

    fi

    fi (Jappelli and Pagano 1988,

    Campbell and Mankiw, 1989, 1991, Evans and

    Karras, 1996, Brunila, 1997, Sefton and nt Veld,

    1999). Jappelli and Pagano (1988),

    ,

    . -

    fi

    fi fi (

    fi fi -

    fi)

    fi fi,

    fi fi -

    .

    ,

    fi

    fi -

    fi -

    fi .

    :

    OIKONOMIKO ETIO, 16 12/0078

    6 Ht =

    =0(1+)(t+|It)

    7 - Hall , fi, , -, fi fi , fi (.. - ) , fi, fi , Baxter and Jermann, 1999.

  • C ct = Y cdt

    fi Y cdt fi

    fi-

    . -

    -

    fi -

    fi.

    fi fi -

    , 1-.

    Ct = C ft + C ct

    Ct = (1 )(p + )(t + Wt) + dt

    Ct = (1 )(1 + )(1 )Ct1 +

    + (1 )1 1 + 1 + rt

    Wt + dt + t (6)

    fi t = ut (1 + )ut1 + t, -

    fi Ydt -

    fi

    fi (1) fi

    -

    .

    4.

    -

    fi 1961-97,

    -

    , fi fi-

    ,